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The Career Arc of Tom Brady

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  1. PatsFans.com Article

    PatsFans.com Article Rookie

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  2. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Thank goodness I'm a fast reader or I'd have wasted even more time on this...

    A year is not a trend, let alone one in which 2 of his 3 prime targets missed a total of a seasons worth of games. And passer rating is a misleading stat at best.

    Here's some more stats for you to muck around with:

    FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | QUARTERBACKS 2012

    We didn't lose our last 2 trips to the Superbowl because of anything Brady did or didn't do. There is a randomness to games in general and big games in particular that he has absolutely no control over. In both cases if not for random plays and unforseen performances and **** happening to others no one in their right mind would have anticipated, he'd have 5 rings by now. Maybe 6. Arc that.
  3. Patriot Missile

    Patriot Missile Rookie

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    #75 Jersey

    Didnt read the article and don't plan to. I'm assuming it's useless fodder to pass the time and evoke a response from the reader.

    The same writer will write another story sometime next season glossing Brady as the greatest after he strings together some excellent games. He will then point out all the things mentioned from the above claiming Brady would have 5 rings if not for......

    Never ending cycle with these writers. They must think we are naive or something.
  4. BradyManny

    BradyManny Rookie

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    This.

    I'm not even reading the article, because I know Brady's career arc:

    2001 - Present: Beast.

    That's about how I would sum it up. Frankly, as an individual, I think he's only gotten better and better in nearly every way, and time has only slowed him slightly physically. His 2007 self might've had a better arm or slightly better pocket-savvy, but he's simply a better football player and QB today than he was then - and that's a remarkable thought given I'd have called him the GOAT back then. This past season he was even more of a surgeon on the field than ever, and if he gets a healthy supply of weaponry next year (something which injuries deprived him of this season), I imagine we'll see another MVP caliber year.

    I'm sure back in January of 2008, we all had dreams of us winning 5 or 6 titles with a perfect season to boot, and Brady having a clean resume that ended all debates on who the GOAT was. Unfortunately, the randomness of playing a 60 minute game, which admittedly was something which seemed to often be in our favor in the early 2000s, has caught up with us to derail those dreams.

    No, his career does not have the perfection and cleanliness it once had. So what? He has a new identity now - along with Belichick. As those annoying, arrogant MFers who were always in the mix, even when everyone else was sick of them. Embrace that identity - and hope that if that identity sticks for 2 to 4 more years, the randomness of football will even itself out, and both coach and QB will get that legacy-cementing 4th ring, anyway. And if they don't, I'm sure we'll all feel some short-term disappointment which will inevitably dissipate with time as the sheer awesomeness of their careers sink in.
  5. borg

    borg Rookie

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    The greats fall off the map at 38, with the exception of Moon. Believing an unathletic stick will defy the odds is a risky bet. 53% completion rate vs Baltimore supports the author's case more than the "Brady is different" rump swabbers. :)
  6. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Back in 2007 he had a 47% completion rate game against the Ravens... One game does not a trend make. And many purpotedly bright people believed an unathletic stick was was a risky bet to defy the odds back in 2000. Fortunately a rump swabber named Rehbein and the different player himself convinved an old defensive war horse like Belichick any risk was outweighed by the potential rewards reaped over a decade and counting. Fans who are unable or unwilling to embrace that and enjoy it while it lasts will come to regret that decision soon enough.
  7. ivanvamp

    ivanvamp Rookie

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    Just curious: in your own words, what is the argument the article is making?
  8. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    I could have sworn guys like Joe Montana, Steve Young, John Elway, Dan Marino, and Brett Favre were still offering something to their teams in their late 30's, and even if you're right and they all started sucking miserably at the invisible wall of age 38, that still gives us three more solid years of having Brady as the QB.

    I'd also argue that Brady at 38 would be more like the "old" days of Brady at 35-36 just due to his phenomenal conditioning techniques alone. I think that it's safe to say that Brady at 38 won't be like most other QB's at age 38 due to being in top physical condition, talent, drive/motivation and his #1 abililty--which is to properly read other defense's and take advantage of potential mismatches. Obviously his gifts are much more cerebral than the majority of QB's.

    Not to mention the fact that this current offense is becoming more and more tailored to extending Brady's career each year, where he had the quickest release time in the entire NFL last year at 2.47 seconds, and now has 2 young TE's and a viable running game ahead of him for the rest of his playing time here.

    If Brady were trending down that quickly then how is the offense still putting up the top 5 offensive rankings of all-time every year? This year at #3...They've also made it to back to back AFCCG's, and had a first round bye in their last three years.
  9. Archeryaddict12

    Archeryaddict12 Rookie

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    Yep, if anything I think Tom could get better. Just keep his targets healthy and him upright and he is straight up awesome.
  10. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Anyone who thinks that Tom Brady is the cause of barely missing on another ring or two is downright crazy in my opinion.

    Last time I checked he had his team in the lead of BOTH SB's against the NYG with under 3:00 minutes remaining, the first one would have/should have been another dramatic late 4th quarter clutch drive resulting in a Moss TD catch. Instead the defense blew it and there were some unlucky calls and bounces including the infamous helmet catch.

    The same goes for last year too. A late 4th quarter lead that was given up by another defensive collapse is not Brady's fault...unless he somehow was playing defense in the secondary and I did not realize.

    The current Brady of the last 3 years has given up less INT's and mistakes, and has overachieved by even getting his team to a first round bye every time, including a SB berth last season, and back to back AFCCG appearances. They had absolutely no running game to lean on aside from this year (which was a main cause of the BAL loss aside from the defense again) and a pretty lousy defense in all 3 years.
  11. Jackson 2

    Jackson 2 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    Are you older than 38? Just wondering, unless you're Moon...
  12. Brady2Moss

    Brady2Moss Rookie

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    Career Arc : GOAT

    to be signed, sealed, and delivered with 2 more Lombardi trophies before he retires :rocker:
  13. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Looking at the 53% completion rate in a vacuum is silly. If he completes another pass or two that were dropped, he'd have had a 60% completion rate and no one would have cared. He also converted 7/15 first downs in that game, and put up 428 yds of offense. They had the ball in FG range (inside the BAL 35) on EIGHT separate occasions. I don't know about you, but most of the time I will assume that if something like that happens we'd have a pretty good chance at winning the game.

    They had a 13-7 lead with 5:00 remaining in the 3rd quarter, so in my opinion it doesn't really matter if they were winning 36-30, 23-17, or 13-7...the fact remains that Brady still had his team in the lead with 2/3 of the game being played vs a defense that came together and played nicely in the postseason.

    Some of the much bigger factors of that game were:

    --the 25+mph crosswinds that caused them to punt 3x in 8 opportunities in what normally is FG range, something that is no one's fault, and something that you'll rarely see

    --the defensive side of the ball giving up 3 later game TD's in the last 1/3 (20 min) of the contest..again despite having the lead after 40 minutes

    --Ridley's concussion which resulted in his knee moving forward and fumbling a split second before he was technically down

    --A tipped pass at the LOS resulting in back to back turnovers when the offense had excellent drives that moved the ball down the field nicely

    --Welker dropping the ball on their first drive of the 3rd quarter that would have either made the lead 16-7, or even potentially 20-7. That took away all the momentum they had, and changed the outcome of the game entirely

    --Not being able to convert after the Pollard personal foul took the ball from the NE 25 all the way to the BAL 36, which once again would have given them a comfortable lead in the 3rd quarter

    --Missing at least one/two shots at the EZ right before the half due to the mismanagement of time for a team who probably practices time management and situational football more than any other team in the NFL

    --The lack of a running game despite BAL daring them to run in a nickel defense once again (NYJ 2010)

    --The key loss of Rob Gronkowski the week before in a freak injury

    --The early loss of Talib and Jones, which shifted the scheme and attack dramatically and led to being forced to play Marquice Cole on Anquan Boldin (arguably one of the top choices for most important aspect)


    If you want to argue that the Patriot offense had an uncharacteristically poor performance in terms of converting their opportunities, then you'd be right, but let's not act like BAL totally shut down Brady either because it isn't true.

    In the dynasty years of '01-'04 there were 9 playoff games, all victories. In 7 of those 9 playoff games (the anomaly being the Steelers game in the 04 AFCCG) the offense averaged 18.4 points....yet won every game.

    I don't remember hearing anyone talk of how Brady wasn't good enough, or that the offense couldn't score enough back then, so I don't see how it's much different now aside from the fact that this defense cannot win close, low-scoring games. They have given up 33, 28, and 28 in three of the last four playoff losses. That's not on Brady..
  14. Jackson 2

    Jackson 2 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    Man, I admire you, and I mean that. Why would you even bother?
  15. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Disable Jersey

    No, it doesn't. And that's not going to change no matter how much you troll on the issue. The piece was a steaming pile of garbage. I hope, for his sake as a would be analyst, that the author has reread it and figured that out by now.
  16. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    1. Certain topics tend to rub my the wrong way, and this is one of them

    2. I am bored and spending too much time on the forum lately

    3. I absolutely love talking football
  17. ivanvamp

    ivanvamp Rookie

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    I asked this of MoLewisRocks earlier in the thread but he didn't reply so I'll ask you the same question. Can you please, in your own words, tell us what you think the article is trying to say?
  18. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    If you read it you should know what the article is "trying" to say, unless comprehension isn't your strong suit. In which case my explaining it to you would be a waste of time.
  19. ivanvamp

    ivanvamp Rookie

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    I have read it. I cannot understand the harsh negative reaction to it. Do you think it's arguing that Brady has somehow lost it or is to "blame" for the Pats not winning a Super Bowl recently?
  20. JMarr

    JMarr Rookie

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    From the article [for those unwilling to read it]:

    "When the Patriots were winning Super Bowls, Tom Brady’s passing, while excellent (as seen in his regular top-10 finishes in the league’s passer ratings), was a much smaller percent of the offensive production pie than it has been when they have not won Super Bowls."

    IMO this is the more important point than Brady's "career arc." They absolutely need an above-average running attack, and to stop fantasizing that a high powered offense can overcome subpar defense when it really counts. Insanity is continuing to repeat the same mistakes over and over. There's too much evidence now that the Pats' playoff failures have been due mainly to various "fluke events."

    We all know Brady will start to decline fairly soon [in some ways he already has, and those who continue to argue otherwise really need to seek therapy for why they are in such a state of denial].

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