The BIGGEST REACH of the 2013 draft: Harmon vs RANKED SAFETIES taken after him

[State]

Last year there were teams that actually had Tavon Wilson ranked as a 2nd rounder.

To quote Jason Bourne, "I doubt that."

BTW, anyone want to bet that Shamarko Thomas has a much bigger impact over the next three years than Duron Harmon? Thomas looks like a human bowling ball on a seek-and-destroy mission.

The Steelers generally do a very good job at drafting, after being burned by bad character guys in the recent past like punk Rainey and thug Ta'amu.

This is what we do, too. I didn't realize, though, that the Steelers guys this year had such a positive background. This is good stuff:
This Year The Steelers Drafted A Class Of Character As Opposed To Class With Characters | Steelers Depot

 

[goheels22002]

Personally, I think it's totally fair to call Harmon the biggest reach of the draft. But now that he's aboard, I look forward to him proving himself a steal.

If this kid does well, we have to start a thread here that is entitled:

The BIGGEST STEAL of the 2013 draft: Harmon vs RANKED SAFETIES

Right now, Alfonso Dennard may be the biggest steal of the 2012 draft. How many corners ranked ahead of him last year?

It would be nice if Belichick and his guys pulled off the two biggest draft steals in the defensive backfield the last two years. God knows they need a break.

 

[patsfaninpa]

If this kid does well, we have to start a thread here that is entitled:

The BIGGEST STEAL of the 2013 draft: Harmon vs RANKED SAFETIES

Right now, Alfonso Dennard may be the biggest steal of the 2012 draft. How many corners ranked ahead of him last year?

It would be nice if Belichick and his guys pulled off the two biggest draft steals in the defensive backfield the last two years. God knows they need a break.

Also, got Talib for a 4th. Doubt if he re-signs here for 1yr/5m if he hadn't finished last season with the squad.

 

[dryheat44]

Yeah, I agree. The only thing that makes sense to me is that Miami refused to trade with New England, or that BB thought he had a deal in the works and it fell through late.

Or maybe he just thought Harmon was leaps and bounds the best fit of the remaining safeties available.

Apparently it's the latter. From Reiss:

Footage from inside the Patriots’ draft room that aired on the "Patriots All-Access" television program showed that Bill Belichick had a trade offer for the team’s third-round draft pick, No. 91 overall, in which the Patriots surprised many by selecting Rutgers safety Duron Harmon. It is unknown what the offer was, but the fact there was an offer in play adds some context to the pick. Sometimes the Patriots get stuck and can’t find a dance partner to trade with, even when they’d prefer to move out. That wasn’t the case at No. 91, even though many analysts viewed the Harmon pick as a reach.

 

[Off The Grid]

Heh! Just re-watched Mayock commenting on Harmon: "the safety inside was as good as the corner outside". IE, the corner taken in the 3rd round.

So if he's "as good" and you think Ryan was value in the 3rd, how is Harmon not equally good value in the 3rd?

Umm...'Cause Mayock doesn't speak for me or anyone else?

I hope you Cats are right about Harmon.

I'm just not seeing it, myself.

That said: It never has been nor ever will be a Level Playing Field: Coach Bill has access to a Legion of Scouting Expertise, to All 22 Tape, to Interviews with Associates ~ Jim Rice Reference!! ~ of every Prospect, and to Interviewing the Prospect, himself. So any Opinion of mine or yours ~ or Mayock's!! ~ is always taken with a Grain of Salt.

Having so stipulated...

I think it was an horrific mistake to pass over Brandon Williams.


...Just as I said it was an horrific mistake to take Tavon Wilson, last Year...with LaVonte David still there!!

 

[Off The Grid]

Christ, I'm grateful that I finally took the time to roll through a few Threads at a more leisurely Rate.

This is brilliant:

1 ~ An argument against the "no such thing as a reach" theory is that there are major inter-team differences based on need, or on divergent talent evaluations.

2 ~ A pressing need at a position can force teams to make inefficient use of their draft capital, especially if the position is thin in the draft and/or they don't have a lot of picks coming up. I think Tavon Wilson was an example of that. The Patriots had to go safety at 48, even if players they rated significantly higher were available.

3 ~ The talent evaluation issue applies mostly to the handful of teams like NE that opt out of the groupthink scouting companies.

That approach should lead to both steals and reaches, because part of draft strategy has to be correctly estimating when other teams will target a player.

*Emphasis, Et Cetera, is mine.

I would philosophically diverge with the Premise of #2 ~ being "forced" ~ because at the end of the day I'm a fanatical Best Player Available guy with a mind towards #3 ~ my Perception of when other Teams will Target a Prospect.

I may've given Brandon Williams a Top 10 Grade...But I would not just pounce on'm, even if I had a Top 10 Pick: I evaluate many Prospects ~ I write many Scouting Reports.

As such, I seek out ridiculous Bargains at every stop ~ and accept that the Price I Pay for SandBagging is to get burned, time and again, by watching My Precious get snatched up just before I was about to grab'm...but ultimately amassing the Services of a Legion of Prospects most or all'f whom I'd graded far higher than I picked'm.

 

[Off The Grid]

If Bill tried to trade out of 91, then he didn't try hard enough, because Miami gave 109, 146 & 224
to GB for 93.

Hypothetically, let's say you can offer the Jets a trade down that they desperately want, or you can wait two picks and trade with the Eagles instead. Which do you do?

Seriously??

Answer: You pounce on that Trade with Jets.

To the degree that a Trade is to our Advantage, it is to the disadvantage of the Jets.

Is that not plain???

***

You're clearly implying that we should walk away from an Advantage because we're taking it from the Jets.

Why??

Out'f Spite??

That is Madness, my friend.

***

Again, and With Feeling:

To the degree that a Trade is to our Advantage, it is to the disadvantage of the Jets.

 

[Off The Grid]

Right now, Alfonso Dennard may be the biggest steal of the 2012 draft.

How many corners ranked ahead of him last year?

In January?

2.

He was deemed to be a 1st/2nd Round Prospect, and I wrote'm up as OverRated!!

Gave'm a 3rd Round Grade, at the time, I did.

 

[Off The Grid]

Apparently it's the latter. From Reiss:

Footage from inside the Patriots’ draft room that aired on the "Patriots All-Access" television program showed that Bill Belichick had a trade offer for the team’s third-round draft pick, No. 91 overall, in which the Patriots surprised many by selecting Rutgers safety Duron Harmon. It is unknown what the offer was, but the fact there was an offer in play adds some context to the pick. Sometimes the Patriots get stuck and can’t find a dance partner to trade with, even when they’d prefer to move out. That wasn’t the case at No. 91, even though many analysts viewed the Harmon pick as a reach.

Good Stuff!!

That is one of the rare times when I would've refused a Trade Back, luscious though it was.

Brandon Williams was out there, Baby.

 

[Off The Grid]

What a wsste if time.

You can't change it.

To make y'all happy, simply pencil in Michael Buchanon as the 3rd round pick, and Duran Harmon as the 7th round pick.

There the drafted list is the same, but is there any longer any reasonable *****ing about the draft selections? I didn't think so.

Is it Happy Hour?? You're slurring your slurs.

So far's I can tell, your last 8000 consecutive Posts have been made for the Express Purpose of lambasting anyone with the Temerity to voice any opinion other than In Bill We Trust.

The Impudence!!

The Audacity!!

The unmitigated Gall!!

You do understand that the Entire Purpose of a Message Board is to share Opinions...right??

It's one thing to Add Value by sharing your own Argument for this or that.

But you almost never do that.

Virtually all you do is squeal and moan and rail against Independent Thought.

Hitler's dead, Babe.

We are actually allowed ~ in this Country ~ to voice Dissenting Thought.

Sorry about that.

One is given to wonder why you log in at all.

The Audacity!!

 

[captain stone]

Apparently it's the latter. From Reiss:

Footage from inside the Patriots’ draft room that aired on the "Patriots All-Access" television program showed that Bill Belichick had a trade offer for the team’s third-round draft pick, No. 91 overall, in which the Patriots surprised many by selecting Rutgers safety Duron Harmon. It is unknown what the offer was, but the fact there was an offer in play adds some context to the pick. Sometimes the Patriots get stuck and can’t find a dance partner to trade with, even when they’d prefer to move out. That wasn’t the case at No. 91, even though many analysts viewed the Harmon pick as a reach.

Just finished reading Reiss' Sunday notes which included this. Good catch. It had to have been
Miami on the phone at the time. Bill really, really, really should've made that trade.

 

[dryheat44]

Just finished reading Reiss' Sunday notes which included this. Good catch. It had to have been
Miami on the phone at the time. Bill really, really, really should've made that trade.

I guess we can only deduce that Belichick wanted to come out of the fourth round with a safety and a WR, he thought the WRs available at the time were all roughly equal, and that after Harmon there was a significant drop-off in safeties.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

It's a piece of evidence I find revealing: Tavon Wilson was a dreadful reach.

Yup. Wilson was much worse a reach than Harmon. What makes the Wilson pick so galling is that the Patriots could have drafted CB Casey Haywood instead...heck they could have traded down and got him. From Wikipedia:

He finished 3rd for NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year and was named to the NFL All-Joes team. According to Pro Football Focus, opposing quarterbacks had a passer rating of 31.1 against him, the lowest against any corner in the league.​

If the Patriots had him and Fonsie (plus Talib) I suspect they would have made the Super Bowl.

 

[Off The Grid]

I guess we can only deduce that Belichick wanted to come out of the fourth round with a safety and a WR, he thought the WRs available at the time were all roughly equal, and that after Harmon there was a significant drop-off in safeties.

Syntax Error.

 

[State]

Yup. Wilson was much worse a reach than Harmon. What makes the Wilson pick so galling is that the Patriots could have drafted CB Casey Haywood instead...heck they could have traded down and got him. From Wikipedia:

He finished 3rd for NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year and was named to the NFL All-Joes team. According to Pro Football Focus, opposing quarterbacks had a passer rating of 31.1 against him, the lowest against any corner in the league.​

If the Patriots had him and Fonsie (plus Talib) I suspect they would have made the Super Bowl.

You obviously don't know what you're talking about, Fred.

Haywood had something like 14 INTs his senior year at woeful Vandy with no pass rush generated against the elite competition in the nation, while Wilson showed off his one or two INTs in his solid three years at pass-happy Big Ten.

Come on, no-brainer, I'd say.

 

[virginiapatriot]

Very good points. One other point is that BB would not have taken him when he did if he thought he could take him later. That means that the Patriots had a very strong reading that another team would take him if they did not take him when they did.

Not necessarily. BB could have taken Harmon in the 3rd-not to mention Tavon Wilson in the 2d last year-because he could. He does whatever he wants,and he has earned that freedom. But he definitely has shown a penchant for making head-scratching reaches. Harmon was a bad pick in the 3rd, but not as bad as Wilson in the 2d. It reminds me of the Raiders pick of Mike Mitchell in the 2d round a few years ago. People railed and howled and called Al Davis senile. It was a bad pick. And after the draft, Raiders fans tried to justify it by saying the Bears were going to take Mitchell if the Raiders didn't. Well, even if true, it was still a bad pick that the Raiders should have let the Bears enjoy. Same with Harmon. If another team was going to make a bad reach, the smart move would have been to let them. I appreciate the way many Pats fans have tried to justify the Harmon pick, but it was awful. For me, the best justification,from a fan's point of view, is that the occasional draft mystery is a small price to pay for having the greatest HC of his generation.

 

[Sciz]

Not necessarily. BB could have taken Harmon in the 3rd-not to mention Tavon Wilson in the 2d last year-because he could. He does whatever he wants,and he has earned that freedom. But he definitely has shown a penchant for making head-scratching reaches. Harmon was a bad pick in the 3rd, but not as bad as Wilson in the 2d. It reminds me of the Raiders pick of Mike Mitchell in the 2d round a few years ago. People railed and howled and called Al Davis senile. It was a bad pick. And after the draft, Raiders fans tried to justify it by saying the Bears were going to take Mitchell if the Raiders didn't. Well, even if true, it was still a bad pick that the Raiders should have let the Bears enjoy. Same with Harmon. If another team was going to make a bad reach, the smart move would have been to let them. I appreciate the way many Pats fans have tried to justify the Harmon pick, but it was awful. For me, the best justification,from a fan's point of view, is that the occasional draft mystery is a small price to pay for having the greatest HC of his generation.

What about when that "WTF" pick turns into Vollmer or Ridley? Still a bad pick?

 

[Claremonster]

Yeah, the guru's here that say that Harmon was such a bad pick...have no fcuking idea. They just parrot all of the talking heads and other media hypesters.

He could be a really good pick. Nobody here knows that he will or will not.

 

[Off The Grid]

What about when that "WTF" pick turns into Vollmer or Ridley? Still a bad pick?

You're assuming that he would've called Vollmer or Ridley WTF Picks.

No offense, but you should address what he actually wrote, not what you imagined he might.

Not trying to be a Moderator on you, Sciz, Old Dog...

But I thought he posted a pretty good Post...for a Rookie.

 

[Off The Grid]

Not necessarily. BB could have taken Harmon in the 3rd-not to mention Tavon Wilson in the 2d last year-because he could. He does whatever he wants,and he has earned that freedom. But he definitely has shown a penchant for making head-scratching reaches. Harmon was a bad pick in the 3rd, but not as bad as Wilson in the 2d. It reminds me of the Raiders pick of Mike Mitchell in the 2d round a few years ago. People railed and howled and called Al Davis senile. It was a bad pick. And after the draft, Raiders fans tried to justify it by saying the Bears were going to take Mitchell if the Raiders didn't.

Well, even if true, it was still a bad pick that the Raiders should have let the Bears enjoy.

Same with Harmon.

If another team was going to make a bad reach, the smart move would have been to let them. I appreciate the way many Pats fans have tried to justify the Harmon pick, but it was awful. For me, the best justification,from a fan's point of view, is that the occasional draft mystery is a small price to pay for having the greatest HC of his generation.

Beautiful.

Couldn't've put it better.

Nice to see appropriately fawning Admiration for Coach Bill tempered by Critical Thinking!! :rocker:

Objectivity is a rare and beautiful thing.