Well it would of been 27-28 as we would not have gone for two either.
That's right. Assuming the same scoring plays during the game, the score would have went like this:
Browns go for 1 instead of 2: 0-13
Patriots FG: 3-13
Browns TD (with one point): 3-20
Patriots TD (now, there's no reason to go for 2, because you still need three scores): 10-20
Patriots FG: 13-20
Browns TD: 13-27
Patriots TD: 20-27
Patriots TD: 27-27
Also, that one point would have given the Browns more options. If they had been up 7 instead of 5 with 3:00 to go inside the ten yard line, do they play it differently? Patriots had used a time out on the challenge. At this point, if you're the Browns, a FG is almost as good as TD, because it requires two scores by the Patriots. Instead, they went for a TD to get up 2 scores, but by doing so they left too much time on the clock. Do you think about kneeling on the ball a few times, getting the Patriots to burn their two times outs and getting under the two minute warning, then kicking the FG to go up by 10? I think you might decide that's the better play than a quick TD.
Maybe not -- maybe you take the TD every time even if it's fast. I've posted about this before, and I'm not sure it's statistically the right answer. Sometimes burning clock is more important than points. Even if they had just one run extra play before the TD to make the Patriots burn time out number 3, it changes the odds. Then they can for the TD or, at worst, take the 3 points. But they can't do that down by only 5. Also -- and this one is controversial -- sometimes having a smaller lead is actually more conservative, because it makes your opponent kick FGs on fourth down instead of going for it. If the Patriots had been down 10 with 1:20 and no time outs, I would think they kick a quick FG on their first possession and then try the onside kick. In other words, up by 10 late, instead of up by 11 late, overtime is more likely but also usually the worst case scenario. Viewed this way, the chance to burn clock or timeouts is can be a smart play on your opponents' 5 yard line with a 6 point lead. But not with a 5 point lead.
But all this is a long digression -- whatever you think about these points and I know many will disagree with the suggestion that you don't always take a TD, the bottom line is that having that extra point gives you options. Not having it took them away.
At the end of the game, both teams scored three TDs and two FGs. The difference in the game was that the Browns were 0-1 on two point conversions and the Patriots were 1-1. That's the point that was the margin. Same as the super bowl against Carolina -- they chased the two points twice and although the FG at the end was the winning margin, the only difference in the game in scoring plays was the difference in two point conversions.
