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The Amazing stock market!

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by PatriotsReign, Oct 13, 2008.

  1. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    Can someone explain to me how or why people seem to think the economy is the stock market? I mean, I know the are 2 very different things, but I'm reading and watching the news and I'm just amazed by what I see.

    People are talking like everything's going to be ok now. All the world's governments are aligned policy wise and "We're on our way back!"

    Stop...NO, we still on our way down. When will people understand that there is no quick fix and this time, it's going to get a lot uglier before it gets better. IN all honesty, even the people on the news are acting very stupid by talking as if we have seen the light!:rolleyes:

    Housing will be screwed up for a long time
    The US auto industry is dying
    Demand for goods & services is falling worldwide
    People are losing their jobs

    None of this will be "fixed" by gov't policy. It will just take time for it all to work itself out.
     
  2. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Today's rally is just undoing the Armageddon scenario which had been priced in the last week. I doubt we'll hit 10K in October and if we do I doubt we'll go much above that. But things had dropped to a ridiculous level last week.
     
  3. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Boing boing boing.

    Like everybody else I like seeing this.

    The market is not the economy. Yes, we still are looking at an economy that is "considered worth" 2/3 of what it was priced at just months ago (the 14,000 range). Very rough shorthand. But BF is right in this point: PE ratios were through the floor. It was a matter of waiting and seeing whether they'll be lower. Later today or tomorrow or this week, it might be again.

    We're dependent on the confidence of investors.

    One point: people talking about the stock market as if it were the economy? Well, in terms of publicly traded stocks, it means a lot. It reflects investment in/capitalization of companies, which comes home in the form of whether they will cut jobs or be hiring. Very simple. It's also the mainstay of many pension plans and the like.

    The older you get, the less you should be in equities. Sure. But some people including retirees WERE in equities when the bottom drops out. A sustained bear market will lock in those losses. And by the way, when the retiree or the guy on the 1-yard line tries to figure out what to do between his current state of affairs and the effect of inflation, of course he leaves some of his portfolio in the market. The trouble is it may not be a sound strategy, just because it looked good for the 20th century. We'll know in a couple more decades.

    A correction here or there -- depending on how the end of the day goes, the end of the week, etc -- is virtually meaningless. A week-long selloff, now that's something different. And a secular bear market, well, that is something we have not seen for some time. It's not fun. It looks like we'll be in one for some time, just as we've been in a secular bull market for 20+ years.

    That's the gamechanger.

    PFnV
     
  4. Fogbuster

    Fogbuster Pro Bowl Player

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    Only one solution: vote McCain and an all-Republican slate. Get rid of those thieves and purse-snatchers from the Democrat Party in Congress and state legislatures.

    Then you will see a brighter future for America!!!


    //
     
  5. STFarmy

    STFarmy In the Starting Line-Up

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    Why be such a Debbie Downer? Stocks are back up! We're saved!!! The Bailout worked! More stimulus packages for everyone! YAYY!

    Seriously though, what do you expect. People now think the oil crisis is over because the price dropped, SUV sales are back up. We're short-sighted hens who can only "deal" (half-heartedly and with much kvetching) about one problem or crisis at a time.
     
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2008
  6. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    I'll admit, I was worrying last week about the "D" word. So at least this is a little positive sign.
     
  7. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    It will take time to know the real effects of "the bailout" since they've barely started working on it. I'm glad to see that stocks stopped dropping as well. We all need hope and some feeling of security.

    My point is, this is not a sign that anything in the economy has changed. The picture still looks the same as it did las week minus a tanking stock market. The reason the market readjusted is due to what investors see for our short-term economic future and that is a very rough road.
     
    Last edited: Oct 13, 2008
  8. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Foggy, you crack me up.

    :rofl:
     
  9. Fogbuster

    Fogbuster Pro Bowl Player

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    Pretty radical, eh. Get some honest people in Washington, for a change!! What breath of fresh air that would be!!! :D

    But, work with me on this -- it grows on you after a while. In God we Trust.

    //
     
  10. Run DMC

    Run DMC In the Starting Line-Up

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    #24 Jersey

    I am 100% confident that the bottom is not in on the market yet. It will come in the next 12 months. I think DJIA worst case scenario bottom will be 6200. I am 100% certain we will see 750-800 on SP500. Nasdaq should get to 1200-1400. That being said I will be buying all the way down in small pieces. The world is not going to end!
     
  11. Run DMC

    Run DMC In the Starting Line-Up

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    #24 Jersey

    Didn't we just have 8 years of this BS? Judging by the state of things right now, uh, no thanks.
     
  12. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Okay, I think I see the problem, foggy, you've missed whole years or even decades. I know I know, calendars lie and liars use calendars... but you need to trust me on this, either that or google it or something:

    From 2000 to the present, George W Bush has been president.
    From 2000 to 2006, the Republican party controlled congress.

    Jimmy Carter served one term from 1976-1980. Bill Clinton served from 1992 to 2000.

    So see, calling for getting some good ol' fashioned honest Republicans into office, when we've had them in office pretty much all this decade, and they're big fat liars and incompetents to boot, is unlikely to meet with much success.

    When you're calling for change, it's important to realize exactly what the state of affairs is first.

    McCain was right the 10% of the time he "bucked his own party" under Bush. Obama's more right, because he opposed the Republican party much more. The Republican party has been the problem... now in a 2 party system, what does that make the solution?

    I knew we could get to the bottom of this.

    PFnV
     

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