The #3 seed and strength of victory

[Patsfanin Philly]

Strength of Victory

As Florio pointed out on PFT, there is a possibility that even if the Pats win; they could end up with the #4 seed. Here’s my take and hope it’s right. If the Pats win and Cinn loses, Pats are #3, Cinn #4 based on better record 11-5 vs 10-6. If they both win or both lose, they will have the same record, same conference record and the tiebreaker will be strength of victory. Essentially that takes all the teams victories and counts the number of wins those teams have. The team that had the better strength of victory ( more wins by defeated teams) wins the tie breaker.
Right now prior to Monday Night Football, the Patriots lead 65-60.
Pats defeated ( number of wins in parenthesis)
Buff (5), Buf (5), NYJ (8), Miami (7),Jax (7), Tenn (7), Balt (8), Car (7),Atl (8), TB (3)=65
(losses to Miami, NYJ, Den, Indy, N.O. don’t count)

Cinn defeated Balt (8),Balt (8), Pitt (8), Pitt(8), Clev (4), Clev (4), GB (10), Chi (5), Det (2) KC (3).=60
(losses to Den, Hou, Oak, Minn,SD don’t count)

Patriots have a 5 point lead before Sunday. Cinn could still overtake them if several things happen. Because they defeated Clev, Pitt and Balt twice, if any of those teams win, it will give Cinn 2 points. The same could be said for Buffalo (giving the Pats 2 points) since the Patriots defeated them twice.
Looking at the schedule for this Sunday
Chi-Det
Atl-TB
These games are a wash. Cinn beat both Chi and Det so they will get one point regardless. The same is true of Atl-TB since the Patriots defeated both teams. When all is said and done, Cinn and NE each pick up a point leaving them in the same position, regardless of who wins..
Starting tonight, Cinn can pick up a maximum of 10 points and the Patriots could pick up 9 points. For Cinn to overcome the current difference, many things have to break right

MNF Chi (+1 Cinn)---Minn……Cinn picks up one point if Chi wins
Sun. Balt (+2 Cinn, +1 NE)-Oak…Cinn picks up 2 pts, NE 1 pt if Balt wins

JAX (+1 NE)- Clev (+2 Cinn)…….one team is helped by this game
Mia (+1 NE)-Pitt (+2 Cinn)………same as above
Tenn (+1 NE) –Sea ………NE picks up 1 point if Tenn wins
Buf (+2 NE)- Indy………………Buffalo could help the Pats.
Car (+1 NE)…N.O. NE picks up a point if….
GB (+1 Cinn)….Ariz……..Cinn picks up a point if GB wins
Cinn- NYJ (+1 Pats)……only really matters if both teams lose
Chi (+1 Cinn) -Det (+1 Cinn)…………..
Atl (+1 NE)-TB (+1 NE)…………negates above game.
KC (+1 Cinn)-Den………..Cinn benefits if KC drags Denver to 8-8
NE- Hou..........................
Other 4 games don't matter as neither team faced them or defeated them(Phil-Dal, Wash-SD, SF-StL,NYG-Minn)


[FONT=&quot]If they are still tied, it goes to strength of schedule then net points scored versus points allowed. Hope this is right. Essentially if either Jax, Oak or Miami win, it helps the Pats and hurts Cinn in the overall strength of victory..
The reason they would pick up 2 points if that they beat them twice during the season...
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[bob85ne]

Doh!, for me!

I just posted in another thread along similar lines.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

Doh!, for me!

I just posted in another thread along similar lines.

Beat me by 2 minutes...

Great minds think alike. It helps that both the Pats and Bengals opponents next week have 8 wins so a win by both teams doesn't change the calculations........

 

[upstater1]

I thought I was nuts, you two take the nutty cake.

 

[PATSYLICIOUS]

But if Cincy gets +2 for Balti winning, wouldn't we get +1, so overall it would just be +1 for Cincy?

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

But if Cincy gets +2 for Balti winning, wouldn't we get +1, so overall it would just be +1 for Cincy?

Yup, and I corrected it, thanks. The maximum they could pick up would be 8 points ( ignoring the two wash games) and they are down by 5. After tonight, we'll have a better picture. Gotta root for Minn but that's not too hard when the opposition is Cutler..

 

[larryo]

I thought I was nuts, you two take the nutty cake.

I would like to post a gif of Maroney chest bumping with the backs after the Morris running td this weekend but sadly I don't have the computer skills.

Stop the insanity.

How about we see who's healthy at practice this week?

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

I thought I was nuts, you two take the nutty cake.

Thank you. I've been called a whole lot worse in the political forum. This is what happens when work is light the week between holidays and I've got way,way,way too much time on my hands......

 

[JasonStan]

Pats and the Bengals will both lose this coming week. Point spreads are way too high for their own good. No reason they they are so high other then both teams sitting starters. Playoff standings are set in stone unless the Ravens find a way to lose this weekend.

Pats +9 and Bengals +10

Free sports scores, lines and picks at ScoresandOdds

Pats will stay the 3rd seed and play the Ravens in 2 weeks.