The "245" Amorphous D ~ The Next Great Defense??

[patchick]

I'm interested in what the "starting lineup" will be if this were the "base" defense this year.

Disclaimer: I'm well aware that the Patriots adjust based on matchups, that this is nothing new, and that the "starting lineup" and "base" defense would not be on the field at all times. The following is an attempt to predict what players will be on the field most often and in what position, assuming they're all healthy and performing as expected.

DT: Wilfork / Fanene

LB (Right to Left): Jones, Mayo, Hightower, Ninkovich

Some may disagree with this grouping, but I'll take Hightower and Ninko over Spikes based on versatility.

CB: McCourty, Arrington

Safety: Chung, Wilson, Gregory

As Andy noted, the LB grouping is especially unpredictable given the sudden influx of talent at the position. I can't begin to predict at this point how players like Scott and Bequette will shake out for this season. But I feel pretty confident that whatever group they choose should be a force.

At DB, I surely hope Dowling cracks the top 5. Injuries have obviously been a problem, but this is a guy who has the field awareness of a safety, the speed and coverage skills of a corner, and stands a good 2 inches taller than anybody in your proposed 5-man backfield. When it comes to the Heisenberg defense, that's a guy you want.

 

[hovis]

I think you would see 3 corners, not 3 safeties.
The 2 LB spots (I consider this a 4-2 not a 2-4) are not necessarily ILBs. Nink (and Vrabel before him) plays the off the line LB role as well.
Hightower is a wild card. He seems able to play any LB position, and one of the most interesting things in camp is going to be seeing how is used.
On the outside, Cunningham, Scott and Bequette, as well as Carter if he signs, would be in the mix as well, which is one reason it is unliekly we will see Ninko there a lot.

Yea, Hightower should be interesting. Hopefully he comes as advertised and can shift to the outside to put his hand in the dirt or as an OLB, while Ninko shifts inside and drops back into coverage. I'll go out on a limb and guess that the versatility and skill of those two will get them the "starting" jobs.

 

[Ring 6]

Yea, Hightower should be interesting. Hopefully he comes as advertised and can shift to the outside to put his hand in the dirt or as an OLB, while Ninko shifts inside and drops back into coverage. I'll go out on a limb and guess that the versatility and skill of those two will get them the "starting" jobs.

I see Hightower more along the lines of the pre2007 Vrabel. OLB in the 34 or 43, who could also play ILB. Equally able to rush or cover from the sub packages.
More of an all around OLB than a designated pass rusher.

 

[hovis]

I see Hightower more along the lines of the pre2007 Vrabel. OLB in the 34 or 43, who could also play ILB. Equally able to rush or cover from the sub packages.
More of an all around OLB than a designated pass rusher.

I can't claim to know anything more than scouting reports tell me. The ones I've read projected him as a 3-4 ILB / 4-3 OLB with the ability to handle 3-4 OLB or 4-3 DE. At 6'4" 270 (allegedly), he certainly has "tweener" size, so I wouldn't be surprised if he does end up being more of an outside guy. If that is the case, then I'd like to see what Ninko can do with some more ILB reps.

 

[mayoclinic]

Would you have payed Red Bryant 7 mil a year to do that job?

Tough call, but I certainly wanted Bryant in 2008 when he came out, and more so this year as a FA. We don't know how far the Pats went towards getting Bryant, but the $35M deal he got from Seattle would have been tough to top, and he reportedly liked staying where he was, so it may have been fruitless. But a Wilfork-Bryant pairing with Kyle Love and Myron Pryor backing them up would have been pretty darn impressive.

Jesse Williams of Alabama looks to be that kind of player. He played DE for the Tide in 2011 and is moving to NT this year, and is probably athletic enough to play 4-3 LDE as well. He's probably a 2nd round prospect right now, with the talent to move up, but with all the DT talent in the 2013 draft he could be a bargain.

 

[Ring 6]

I can't claim to know anything more than scouting reports tell me. The ones I've read projected him as a 3-4 ILB / 4-3 OLB with the ability to handle 3-4 OLB or 4-3 DE. At 6'4" 270 (allegedly), he certainly has "tweener" size, so I wouldn't be surprised if he does end up being more of an outside guy. If that is the case, then I'd like to see what Ninko can do with some more ILB reps.

Ninko doesnt at all strike me as an ILB. He can be an off the line LB in sub packages if that is what you are saying.

 

[mayoclinic]

I'm interested in what the "starting lineup" will be if this were the "base" defense this year.

CB: McCourty, Arrington

Safety: Chung, Wilson, Gregory

I think you would see 3 corners, not 3 safeties.

In the secondary I would see McCourty, Arrington, Dowling, Gregory and Chung as the 'base' starters.

At DB, I surely hope Dowling cracks the top 5. Injuries have obviously been a problem, but this is a guy who has the field awareness of a safety, the speed and coverage skills of a corner, and stands a good 2 inches taller than anybody in your proposed 5-man backfield. When it comes to the Heisenberg defense, that's a guy you want.

McCourty, Dowling and Chung should all be part of the base if healthy. Gregory and Arrington will almost certainly have the inside track to start at the other safety and the star positions. Wilson should get time in "big nickel" packages (though I agree with Andy that 3 CBs will be the base 5 DB set) from the outset and the opportunity to play himself into more of a base role. Dennard could also be a wild card. If past seasons are any guide, DB depth will be tested, so there should be enough opportunity for guys to get playing time.

 

[BTTA]

By the time this and next year's new defensive talent becomes good, i.e. 2014, Wilfork will be on the way out. If we want two dominant DT's playing together with the 2012 and 2013 drafted defensive players, we need to draft them in 2013 and 2014.

If Wilfork continues as a dominant player and the MVP of the defense beyond 2013, we will be very very lucky.

 

[patfanken]

Great thread. I can't tell you how much I've enjoyed the commentary thus far. I pretty much think that most of what can be said HAS been said. If I can summarize the key points that I've got from the conversation

1. Over the long history of the Football the dependence on the DL has shrunk from 9 man fronts to 3 man front as the passing game has become the predominant way to move the ball. It was a great historical insight from OTG.

2. Beyond the "Polian rules changes", the biggest developments that have accelerated the offensive game has been spread formations and the no-huddle offense. The spread has made nickel DB's starters, and the no huddle has severely limited the defense's ability to substitute, and increased a great QB's ability to create favorable matchups at the LOS.

3. All this has lead to the necessity to develop "amorphous defenses" to combat what the challenges that offenses bring to the table. Create looks that make identifying the "Mike" difficult. By doing that it could cause confusion in the OL, since who the "mike" is, dictates the protection. And the most obvious advantage is to disguise coverages and blitz packages.

4. Finally to be able to utilize this kind of defense the Pats over the last 2 years have added many Hybrid style players who can play in various positions. Players like Scott, Ninko, Jones, Bequette, Carter, and Cunningham, who can all play standing up and with their hands in the dirt. And bigger DB's who have coverage skills AND are strong in run support like Wilson Gregory, Allen, McCourty, and Dowling. DB's who are comfortable on the outside AND in the middle of the field like McCourty and Allen. And finally DLmen who are capable of playing DE AND DT like Fanene, Vince, and Jones. Then add a prototypical hybrid player like Hightower and the roster is fully set up to run a 2-4-5 as a base defense.

OK that's what's BEEN said, and I heartily concur. Here's what I can add, because as a former coach one of the most difficult problems that arises when you change defensive concepts is what you need to say to to get your players into the proper position to execute your idea. In other words, its a problem of SEMANTICS. How do you get your players to LOOK amorphous and disorganized, then at the snap of the ball arriving at a proscribed spot, with a specific assignment to carry out. What few words can communicate all that that message

That's a real problem because you can't have one look for your "amorphous" package. So the problem for the coaching staff is not only designing the schemes, its creating the most efficient language to communicate the instructions to your players

I have always been fascinated by the language of football. There has been very little discussion on it, except in a few football books dedicated to the matter. As far the media or general fandom, nothing is ever discussed about the importance of semantics in the success of a system. Its the key to getting everyone "on the same page"

 

[ProudestRyno]

Grid, promise me you'll never switch to decaf

Did you have to quote his entire post here?

 

[ctpatsfan77]

Here's an interesting question, based on the premises that led to your conclusion:

How likely do you see it that the impending GRONKnandez-ification of the NFL will lead to a shift back towards allowing defenses greater latitude?

To put this in perspective: GRONKnandez accounted, according to Football Outsiders, for almost 591 yards of DYAR last year (more than an average TE would expect in similar down/distance combos; that # includes Hernandez's rushing as well). The second-best duo was Houston's Owen Daniels and Joel Dreessen, who combined for just 241.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Mind you: all of these are instances of the "155" and the "245" being employed as Sub Packages.

Nobody's talking about installing the "155" or the "245" as a Base Package.

Well, except for me.

Off The Grid - putting the ME in Amoeba!

 

[fester]

Um...pretty much!! :rocker:

I'm starting to drag it, right about now, but I'll answer this a bit better on the morrow, once I've rested!!

OTG read this guy's series on a 6-5 defensive concept:

The Bartlett Defense: Part 1 - Personnel and alignment - It's All Over, Fat Man!

It seems like it is flowing in your general direction.

 

[Off The Grid]

What do you see as being the optimal personnel prototypes for the Front 6?

A 3-4 NT and a 4-3 DT/3-4 LDE up front; two "Elephants" on the outside; and two 4-3 OLBs in the middle?

Sounds like a good start to me.

If I were picking my ideal front 6 it would probably look something like Vince Wilfork and Haloti Ngata up front, with JJ Watt and Jason Pierre-Paul outside and Patrick Willis and Sean Lee in the middle.

The "ends" are athletic enough to play standing up or out of a 3-point stance and probably strong enough to move inside, the tackles are strong enough to play inside on a 2, 3, or 4 man front and athletic enough to play outside on a 3 man front (and maybe even 4-3 LDE for Ngata).

The LBs have enough range and coverage ability to play out of a 4-2-5 scheme.

I'd probably have another "elephant" for NASCAR kind of situations where I wanted more up front pass rushing. Aldon Smith would be a nice option for that role.

Outstanding!! :rocker:

One Aspect of what Coach Bill the Mad (Genius) did in April that I'm most JACKED about, is that we Patriot Fans ~ we who suffered for 826 years with the likes of Shawn Crable, Derrick Burgess, and Tully Hyphenator on the Edge...now boast ~ and I'm still shocked and amazed to be able to employ this term about us ~ arguably the deepest arsenal of legitimate Young Edge Talent in the League!!

* Trevor Scott
* Chandler Jones
* Jake Bequette
* Donte HighTower
* Rob Ninkovich
* Jermaine Cunningham

Our Edge Talent is so freaking deep ~ OURS!! The PATRIOTS!! ~ that we even cut Markell Carter, to the considerable annoyance of myself and ~ I believe ~ many of you.

And then there's Andre Carter ~ X Factor!! :rocker:

The possibilities are immense.

I believe that such shocking Depth of Talent at Edge strongly suggests a "245" Base, with the "425" being the Formation most often flipped into...And I would LOVE it!! :rocker:

Of course, even the definition of "Base Defense" has been undergoing a radical change...and will continue to evolve dramatically, I believe, as little more than a Starting Point. As my Monicker says:

ALL Packs are "Sub Packs".

I see the "Bases" of the Future continuing to evolve ~ as they have indeed already been evolving ~ into little more than "Fronts" ~ in a FAR different sense of the word!! ~ that are as likely as not to Morph the instant the ball is snapped!!

 

[Deus Irae]

Outstanding!! :rocker:

One Aspect of what Coach Bill the Mad (Genius) did in April that I'm most JACKED about, is that we Patriot Fans ~ we who suffered for 826 years with the likes of Shawn Crable, Derrick Burgess, and Tully Hyphenator on the Edge...now boast ~ and I'm still shocked and amazed to be able to employ this term about us ~ arguably the deepest arsenal of legitimate Young Edge Talent in the League!!

* Trevor Scott
* Chandler Jones
* Jake Bequette
* Donte HighTower
* Rob Ninkovich
* Jermaine Cunningham

Our Edge Talent is so freaking deep ~ OURS!! The PATRIOTS!! ~ that we even cut Markell Carter, to the considerable annoyance of myself and ~ I believe ~ many of you.

And then there's Andre Carter ~ X Factor!! :rocker:

The possibilities are immense.

I believe that such shocking Depth of Talent at Edge strongly suggests a "245" Base, with the "425" being the Formation most often flipped into...And I would LOVE it!! :rocker:

Of course, even the definition of "Base Defense" has been undergoing a radical change...and will continue to evolve dramatically, I believe, as little more than a Starting Point. As my Monicker says:

ALL Packs are "Sub Packs".

I see the "Bases" of the Future continuing to evolve ~ as they have indeed already been evolving ~ into little more than "Fronts" ~ in a FAR different sense of the word!! ~ that are as likely as not to Morph the instant the ball is snapped!!

You might want to pump the brakes a bit. In terms of proven ability, the Patriots have rarely had less on the edge than they do now.

 

[Off The Grid]

Mind you: all of these are instances of the "155" and the "245" being employed as Sub Packages.

Nobody's talking about installing the "155" or the "245" as a Base Package.

Well, except for me.

Off The Grid - putting the ME in Amoeba!

Nice!!

But I believe you've misunderstood my tenor, Brother Virginia.

Mind you...

There is a fine line between pathetically vain Self Promotion:

"Look at ME!! I'm Off The Grid!!"

...and HUMBLE Self-Deprecation:

"What kind of lunatic JACK@$$ would predict that the "245" will become a Base Defense?? ME!!!"

And my comment was of course in the latter Spirit, my good man.

You owe me a Beer.

In any case, I am an enormous fan of your Work. Indeed, while I didn't take such notes, it's very likely that you ~ as well as dozens of others, hereabouts, by the way ~ were very contributive to the genesis of this Thread. This Thread has been heavily influenced by the discussions, here, as, indeed, have most of my Threads. As I mentioned to Brother Mayo just yesterday: I am incapable of thriving In a Vacuum.

All of which is to say: I would love to read your latest take on the Evolutionary Path of Defenses.

 

[mayoclinic]

You might want to pump the brakes a bit. In terms of proven ability, the Patriots have rarely had less on the edge than they do now.

In terms of proven ability, maybe. But in terms of talent, this is the most talented group the Pats have possibly had since 2007, especially if Andre Carter is re-signed. In 2007 the Pats had Seymour and Warren outside in a 3-4 with Vrabel, Colvin, Adalius Thomas and Junior Seau (mostly playing inside with Tedy Bruschi). Since then the Pats have tried to deal with the liked of Pierre Woods, Shawn Crable, Vince Redd. Tully Banta-Cain was never more than a journeyman and a decent sub-rusher, and Derrick Burgess was a terrible trade made out of desperation in 2009. Meanwhile Rob Ninkovich has evolved into a solid edge player, Andre Carter (if he comes back) was an all-pro, Trevor Scott had 2 solid seasons at the elephant in sub packages for the Raiders before tearing his ACL in 2010. And Chandler, Jones, Jake Bequette and Dont'a Hightower were all solid performers who should be expected to add considerable talent to the edge. It's easy to lament the loss of Mark Anderson now, but a year ago he hadn't done much since his rookie season.

Sure, there's plenty of reason to temper enthusiasm with caution. But it's still hard not to feel encouraged by the potential talent on defense this year in comparison to the past 3 years.

 

[ausbacker]

You might want to pump the brakes a bit. In terms of proven ability, the Patriots have rarely had less on the edge than they do now.

In terms of proven ability, maybe. But in terms of talent, this is the most talented group the Pats have possibly had since 2007, especially if Andre Carter is re-signed. In 2007 the Pats had Seymour and Warren outside in a 3-4 with Vrabel, Colvin, Adalius Thomas and Junior Seau (mostly playing inside with Tedy Bruschi). Since then the Pats have tried to deal with the liked of Pierre Woods, Shawn Crable, Vince Redd. Tully Banta-Cain was never more than a journeyman and a decent sub-rusher, and Derrick Burgess was a terrible trade made out of desperation in 2009. Meanwhile Rob Ninkovich has evolved into a solid edge player, Andre Carter (if he comes back) was an all-pro, Trevor Scott had 2 solid seasons at the elephant in sub packages for the Raiders before tearing his ACL in 2010. And Chandler, Jones, Jake Bequette and Dont'a Hightower were all solid performers who should be expected to add considerable talent to the edge. It's easy to lament the loss of Mark Anderson now, but a year ago he hadn't done much since his rookie season.

Sure, there's plenty of reason to temper enthusiasm with caution. But it's still hard not to feel encouraged by the potential talent on defense this year in comparison to the past 3 years.

Every player has to start from somewhere. Whilst I agree proven ability is an important notion I'd rather feel positive about the potential of players than not.

 

[Deus Irae]

In terms of proven ability, maybe. But in terms of talent, this is the most talented group the Pats have possibly had since 2007, especially if Andre Carter is re-signed. In 2007 the Pats had Seymour and Warren outside in a 3-4 with Vrabel, Colvin, Adalius Thomas and Junior Seau (mostly playing inside with Tedy Bruschi). Since then the Pats have tried to deal with the liked of Pierre Woods, Shawn Crable, Vince Redd. Tully Banta-Cain was never more than a journeyman and a decent sub-rusher, and Derrick Burgess was a terrible trade made out of desperation in 2009. Meanwhile Rob Ninkovich has evolved into a solid edge player, Andre Carter (if he comes back) was an all-pro, Trevor Scott had 2 solid seasons at the elephant in sub packages for the Raiders before tearing his ACL in 2010. And Chandler, Jones, Jake Bequette and Dont'a Hightower were all solid performers who should be expected to add considerable talent to the edge. It's easy to lament the loss of Mark Anderson now, but a year ago he hadn't done much since his rookie season.

Sure, there's plenty of reason to temper enthusiasm with caution. But it's still hard not to feel encouraged by the potential talent on defense this year in comparison to the past 3 years.

I've got no problem with optimism for the DE/OLB positions this offseason. I just thought that OTG was over the top, even for him.

 

[mayoclinic]

I've got no problem with optimism for the DE/OLB positions this offseason. I just thought that OTG was over the top, even for him.

Well, it was admittedly a little over the top. It's always possible that someone substituted regular coffee for Grid's usual decaf.