Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Va_Pats_Fan, Jan 30, 2012.
Ball is on the 30, 2 min left..which are you more comfortable with...
I couldn't tolerate being behind, but I rather ask our best player to win it: Tom Brady!
I hear what you're getting at, but I'd always want the lead.
Anybody who trusts our defense in that situation at this point, particularly against Eli, is out of their mind.
My issue with the Pats being up is you know Eli is going to throw up a balloon hoping for another immaculate reception or those stupid PI's calls the Giants are always on the receiving end of.
That said, I want to be in front.
How would BB answer?
At that 1 point margin, there's no way I'd pick to be on defense. There's just no chance the Giants don't at least get into field goal range. I think if the scenario was 30-27 (or even 31-27), then we'd have a closer vote.
The OP author needs to spell "defense" correctly.
Always take the lead....always.
If any of the two scenario's listed come true sunday, I will be in the fetal position on my couch.
lol this isn't even close. I don't care if we had the niners defense, a one point lead is nothing in todays nfl. I would most certainly rather be down by one with the ball, possibly the greatest QB of all time and 2 min. Now if the score was 31-27 its a different story. I don't trust lawrence tynes to pull a billy cundiff.
Nah, my spelling is fine...my proofreading sucks however
At the end of the game, you want to put the game in your best player's hands...and that's Tom Brady.
Especially if all we needed was a field goal.
often in the 4th quarter, a 3 point lead isn't much better than being tied
defense tire out quicker than offenses
SB 36. Ricky Proehl. SB 38. Ricky Proehl. SB 39. Eagles make it closer than it should have been. The nightmare 2006 AFCCG. SB 42. I don't trust the defense.
At the 30 means the team needs to go about 50 yards for a field goal... offense every time.
I've always been under the impression that the offense has more of an advantage than usual in this situation. First of all, they have four downs to work with. That extra down makes it much easier to score. Second of all, the offense is able to play more aggressively, because they don't have to worry about what happens if they fail, because throwing an interception and turning the ball over on downs are one in the same at the point. Therefore, I'd have to imagine that the offense scores more often than usual. I don't have any actual data on it though, so I could be wrong.
What I don't think I'm wrong about is the fact that both Brady and Manning have been dominant at the end of games. Five times this season, the Patriots final drive (not counting drives with < :30 seconds remaining) started with them down by a touchdown or less. All five times, they scored a touchdown. The Giants faced this situation seven times. They scored a touchdown five times as well. Call me crazy, but I'm taking the offense.
hopefully the Pats are ahead by 14+, so it won't matter anyways.
Given those two options, I want the team's fate in TB's hands.
I want the lead.
Besides....the odds are good that they give up a quick score to allow TFB the opportunity to come back on the field with the offense to win the game anyway.
I hate the idea of being behind.
Before the Polian Rules, I would want to be on defense. After them, and especially after the Goddell 2 hand touch on recievers rules, you have to want the ball with the chance to have it last and score at 0:00 to win.
If it was 3 points, I'd strongly consider the D. If it's only a one point margin, give me the offense.
You're not wrong. Brian Burke of AdvancedNFLStats.com wrote a great, chock-full-of-data article on this back in 2008.
The wildest detail from which is that in the NFL's recent history, a team that has the ball and is behind by a point has won more often than a team with a one point lead and the ball. Crazy, huh?
As it happens, during most of the game, NFL coaches employ overly-cautious sub-optimal strategy. They run too often (except in third/fourth and 2 to 3 situations, where they pass to often) and they punt waaaaay too often. Playing with a late lead only aggravates this tendency, while a late deficit prods coaches into playing more like they should be all game.
That said, in recent history, teams with a 1 point deficit and the ball on their own 30 at the 2 minute warning have still lost more often than they've won, by a margin of 57%-43%. So if you're talking about two generic teams, you'd have to take the narrow lead -- even in today's NFL.
But we're not talking about generic teams... we're talking about a team with a fantastic offense and an overall sub-par defense. There's pretty much no way that the Patriots' relative strengths and weaknesses don't more than make up that 7% differential in historical winning percentage. So I think, at this point in time, you'd have to take the ball in the OP's scenario.
If the defense is on the field in order to win the game, I will freaking pass out from anxiety.
From a comfortableness standpoint, I hate either option, but if I had to pick I'd take the ball. I think the average points per drive in the NFL is above 2.5, so it seems like an easy choice. I guess the only complication is if they score a field goal too quickly, and then the Giants have time and a 2 point deficit.
Being ahead suites me fine.
2 minutes at the 30 would leave Eli too much time..rather be down 1 with 1 minute
Offense, it's just too easy to pick up the needed yards in this case.
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