The 11 point rule...

[rabthepat]

I have noticed that during the Belichick era the Patriots tend to lose when the other team takes more than an 11 point lead any time during the game. What is it about our offense that we cannot over come leads like the Colts, Chargers, etc.?

 

[Pujo]

11 points is no joke, a TD and a field goal isn't enough.

It's like the "they're likely to lose if behind by two TD's with 30 seconds left to play" statistic. Well, duh!

 

[Stokes]

I'm going to go ahead and guess that if you look at every team's record over the last few years, nobody comes back from 11 down very often, its not just a Pats-specific thing. Luckily for the Pats there haven't been too many times in the last 5 years that they have been down by 11+!

 

[Pat the Pats Fan]

And that's usually the way the Pats lose, which isn't that often. They rarely lose by just a few points. The defense needs to keep a team in the game ( by less than 2 TDs) and then you have a chance.

 

[patriot lifer]

very correlative. We don't tend to take many risks, so if we are down, it's because the team is definitely better than us.

 

[FarScapeR]

What was the largest point margin in the playoff game against the Chargers?

 

[Oswlek]

What was the largest point margin in the playoff game against the Chargers?

11 points, 14-3.

 

[PatriotsDaily.com]

I'd imagine the stats league-wide aren't that great for teams that fall behind by more than 11 points...not just the Patriots.

 

[spacecrime]

I have noticed that during the Belichick era the Patriots tend to lose when the other team takes more than an 11 point lead any time during the game. What is it about our offense that we cannot over come leads like the Colts, Chargers, etc.?

Are you serious, or did you just make this up without checking? Not saying you just pulled this out of nowhere, but I'd like to see the data myself before coming the conclusion you did.

How many times have we been down by 11 points and failed to win in the last 5-6 years?

How many times have the Colts been down by 11 points and failed to win in the last 5-6 years?

How many times have the Chargers been down by 11 points and failed to win in the last 5-6 years?

 

[Fencer]

We all know of one instance in which the Colts overcame a >11 point deficit.

Even so, I agree with the other comments.

 

[brdmaverick]

I think Belicheck's philosophy is to win by never being down by 11 points

I am trying to recall any time when the Pats were down by 11 in the Belicheck ERA, hmmmmmmmm.......

they were down 13-0 or 16-0 to the Jets in NY in 2001

they were down 14-3 to the Chargers in the 06 (actually 07) playoffs

they were down something like 26-9 against the Bears in '02

I guess they haven't done it all that often, but that's okay as they generally don't find themselves in that position. Remember in 2003 when from Thanksgiving through 5 minutes left in the Super Bowl, the Patriots were never behind in a game. That's impressive.

 

[JDP111]

I have noticed that during the Belichick era the Patriots tend to lose when the other team takes more than an 11 point lead any time during the game. What is it about our offense that we cannot over come leads like the Colts, Chargers, etc.?

Why can't the season start tomorrow? What's wrong with the defense that they are letting teams get out to 11 point leads? Seriously, what the hell are you trying to accomplish with this post? What is the ideal answer to why the Patriots can't come back specifically from 11 points down? Please provide us with the games in which they were down by 11 points at some point at anytime in the game, and lost/won; otherwise, stop throwing things off a wall.

 

[FarScapeR]

Calm. Down.

 

[rabthepat]

Why can't the season start tomorrow? What's wrong with the defense that they are letting teams get out to 11 point leads? Seriously, what the hell are you trying to accomplish with this post? What is the ideal answer to why the Patriots can't come back specifically from 11 points down? Please provide us with the games in which they were down by 11 points at some point at anytime in the game, and lost/won; otherwise, stop throwing things off a wall.

If the Pats are down by 11 or less they are still in the game. If the other team at any time goes up by 12 or more we are toast. Here are some recent examples;

2006
Denver goes up 17-0 Pats lose 17-7
Miami goes up 13-0 Pats lose 21-0

2005
KC goes up 16-3 Pats lose 26-16
Carolina goes up 20-7 Pats lose 27-17
Chargers go up 34-17 Pats lose 41-17
Denver goes up 21-3 Pats lose 28-20
Colts go up 21-7 Pats lose 40-21
Denver goes up 24-6 Pats lose 27-13 (playoffs)

2004
Steelers go up 21-3 pats lose 34-20

2003
Bills go up 14-0 Pats lose 31-0
Redskins go up 20-3 Pats lose 20-17

2002
Miami goes up 16-0 Pats lose 26-13
Packers go up 21-3 Pats lose 28-10
Denver goes up 14-0 Pats lose 24-16
Chicago(4-12) goes up 21-6 Pats WIN 33-30

Colts last year of course over come the 21-3 deficit to beat us and the Chargers over come 21 point deficit to beat Cinci. Just some quick examples. Stopping at 2002 Pats are 1 for 15 when the opponents open up a lead greater than 11 points anytime during the game.

 

[godef]

I have noticed that during the Belichick era the Patriots tend to lose when the other team takes more than an 11 point lead any time during the game. What is it about our offense that we cannot over come leads like the Colts, Chargers, etc.?

This is a silly comment. Gee, ANY team that trails by 11 in a game tends to lose. Not always, but "tend" being the key word here...

 

[rabthepat]

This is a silly comment. Gee, ANY team that trails by 11 in a game tends to lose. Not always, but "tend" being the key word here...

We do not come back even against the bad teams. Perhaps it has been a lack of speed to strike back quick.

 

[Pujo]

We do not come back even against the bad teams. Perhaps it has been a lack of speed to strike back quick.

So do you know how other teams do in comparison when down by 11 or more points, or fewer than 11? And you have to get complete statistics for a period, you can't cherry-pick games you remember. With that info you can see if there's an unusual trend or if that's just how the game goes.

 

[rabthepat]

So do you know how other teams do in comparison when down by 11 or more points, or fewer than 11? And you have to get complete statistics for a period, you can't cherry-pick games you remember. With that info you can see if there's an unusual trend or if that's just how the game goes.

That is the complete statistics for the Patriots over the past 5 years. No cherry picking. 15 times in the past 5 years opponents both good and bad have taking a lead of more than 11 points and the Pats lost 93.3% of the time.

It just seems hard to believe in the Tom Brady era 12 points is so insurmountable. Historically speaking, if the Colts had gone up on us 21-3 then no come back like Manning did.

Chargers, for example, trailed by more than 11 points 3 times last year alone. (KC, Den and Cinci) They won 2 out of 3.

I think with Moss, Stallworth, Maroney, etc the offense may be better equipped to handle come backs, if needed, when they are down by 12 or more points.

 

[Deus Irae]

We do not come back even against the bad teams. Perhaps it has been a lack of speed to strike back quick.

Re-check that list and look at the teams involved. This isn't rocket science. Almost all those teams were good/great teams or had good/great defenses:

Looking at record and points allowed rankings


2006
Denver 9-7 (8)
Miami 6-10 (5)

2005
KC 10-6 (11)
Carolina 11-5 (5)
Chargers 9-7 (13)
Denver 13-3 (4)
Colts 14-2 (2)
Denver 13-3 (4)

2004
Steelers 15-1 (1)

2003
Bills 6-10 (5)
Redskins 5-11 (24)

2002
Miami 9-7 (4)
Packers 12-4 (12)
Denver 9-7 (15)
Chicago (4-12) (25)


In other words, most of the teams that got up by 12 points or more were either very good teams overall or had excellent scoring defenses. Furthermore, 4 of these blowout losses have come at the hands of Denver, a team that has clearly had the Patriots' number and matched up very well against them.

The problem would not seem to be a lack of speed so much as facing difficult defenses to score a lot of points against.

 

[Pujo]

That is the complete statistics for the Patriots over the past 5 years. No cherry picking. 15 times in the past 5 years opponents both good and bad have taking a lead of more than 11 points and the Pats lost 93.3% of the time.

It just seems hard to believe in the Tom Brady era 12 points is so insurmountable. Historically speaking, if the Colts had gone up on us 21-3 then no come back like Manning did.

Chargers, for example, trailed by more than 11 points 3 times last year alone. (KC, Den and Cinci) They won 2 out of 3.

I think with Moss, Stallworth, Maroney, etc the offense may be better equipped to handle come backs, if needed, when they are down by 12 or more points.

You still haven't compared the Pats to any other team. How often do other teams win after being down by 11 points? Right now you're just giving a no-brainer: it's hard to come back from an 11 point defecit.