Thanks Roger! Stat guys at 538 conclude Brady's break has helped the Pats

[SHOWTIME15]

I have been saying for a while that if the Pats intend to trade Garoppolo, the Brady suspension is going to blow up in Goodell's face. Without the game and a half that Garoppolo played, the Pats would have trouble even getting the second round pick back. Now they might not only recoup the first and fourth rounders they lost (at higher draft positions), but might get even more.

I would love to see Goodell's face if and when the Pats get something like two firsts (one of the firsts being a top five pick) and a second for Garoppolo after the season. Especially if the Pats go 3-1 or 4-0 in the next two weeks.

League office will block the trade

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Did not realize there was any association to ESPN.

It used to be a NYT blog.

 

[supafly]

It used to be a NYT blog.

Forgive my ignorance, but does the NYT have ties to ESPN? Where does the ESPN angle come in? Thanks.

 

[SHOWTIME15]

Forgive my ignorance, but does the NYT have ties to ESPN? Where does the ESPN angle come in? Thanks.

FiveThirtyEight - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"In July 2013, it was revealed that Silver and his FiveThirtyEight blog would depart The New York Times and join ESPN.[17] In its announcement of its acquisition of FiveThirtyEight, ESPN reported that "Silver will serve as the editor-in-chief of the site and will build a team of journalists, editors, analysts and contributors in the coming months. Much like Grantland, which ESPN launched in 2011, the site will retain an independent brand sensibility and editorial point-of-view, while interfacing with other websites in the ESPN and Disney families. The site will return to its original URL, www.FiveThirtyEight.com".[18]

According to Silver, the focus of FiveThirtyEight in its ESPN phase would broaden: "People also think it’s going to be a sports site with a little politics thrown in, or it’s going to be a politics site with sports thrown in.... But we take our science and economics and lifestyle coverage very seriously.... It’s a data journalism site. Politics is one topic that sometimes data journalism is good at covering. It’s certainly good with presidential elections. But we don’t really see politics as how the site is going to grow".[19]

FiveThirtyEight launched its ESPN webpage on March 17, 2014. The lead story by Nate Silver explained that "FiveThirtyEight is a data journalism organization.... We’ve expanded our staff from two full-time journalists to 20 and counting. Few of them will focus on politics exclusively; instead, our coverage will span five major subject areas — politics, economics, science, life and sports. Our team also has a broad set of skills and experience in methods that fall under the rubric of data journalism. These include statistical analysis, but also data visualization, computer programming and data-literate reporting. So in addition to written stories, we’ll have interactive graphics and features".

 

[Deus Irae]

We can show this using our Elo ratings, which are used to judge each NFL team’s quality at a given moment in time. The Patriots entered the season with an Elo of 1605 — good for sixth in the league — and if they played to that rating, they could have expected to win about 2.5 of their first four games, with an 86 percent chance of going 2-2 or better, a 53 percent shot at 3-1 or better and a 17 percent probability of going 4-0.

No need to continue past that, really. It put the odds of a 3-1 record, with this schedule, at just 53% if Brady had played.

 

[supafly]

FiveThirtyEight - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

"In July 2013, it was revealed that Silver and his FiveThirtyEight blog would depart The New York Times and join ESPN.[17] In its announcement of its acquisition of FiveThirtyEight, ESPN reported that "Silver will serve as the editor-in-chief of the site and will build a team of journalists, editors, analysts and contributors in the coming months. Much like Grantland, which ESPN launched in 2011, the site will retain an independent brand sensibility and editorial point-of-view, while interfacing with other websites in the ESPN and Disney families. The site will return to its original URL, www.FiveThirtyEight.com".[18]

According to Silver, the focus of FiveThirtyEight in its ESPN phase would broaden: "People also think it’s going to be a sports site with a little politics thrown in, or it’s going to be a politics site with sports thrown in.... But we take our science and economics and lifestyle coverage very seriously.... It’s a data journalism site. Politics is one topic that sometimes data journalism is good at covering. It’s certainly good with presidential elections. But we don’t really see politics as how the site is going to grow".[19]

FiveThirtyEight launched its ESPN webpage on March 17, 2014. The lead story by Nate Silver explained that "FiveThirtyEight is a data journalism organization.... We’ve expanded our staff from two full-time journalists to 20 and counting. Few of them will focus on politics exclusively; instead, our coverage will span five major subject areas — politics, economics, science, life and sports. Our team also has a broad set of skills and experience in methods that fall under the rubric of data journalism. These include statistical analysis, but also data visualization, computer programming and data-literate reporting. So in addition to written stories, we’ll have interactive graphics and features".

Thank you for the response. Much appreciated.

 

[WhoaDirty]

If THAT happens, the video where the news gets broken to Goodell, aka Hitler, would be epic.

On the off chance this hasn't been posted yet:

 

[ausbacker]

I read the article and came out of it thinking what an utterly idiotic article. Basically, our statistical models suggested this outcome but our statistical models don't take into account XYZ. Well 538, what's the ****ing point?

 

[Joker]

Look...it's an ESPN offshoot...fruit of the poisoned tree.

 

[pheenix11]

If THAT happens, the video where the news gets broken to Goodell, aka Hitler, would be epic.

It might go something like this:

 

[BradyFTW!]

I read the article and came out of it thinking what an utterly idiotic article. Basically, our statistical models suggested this outcome but our statistical models don't take into account XYZ. Well 538, what's the ****ing point?

A model which by design accounts for absolutely nothing that occurs in the offseason. No accounting for injuries, suspensions, departures, retirements, draft, free agency, etc. Which is fine, I guess, but to then base entire articles around predictions that this basically useless model makes... yeah.

I consider myself kind of a stats nerd, and I've followed Nate Silver pretty closely in the past. But the current version of the 538 is basically useless. Anyone who's interested in an analytical look at football should skip right past it and head to Football Outsiders.

 

[resdubwhite]

Weren't they the ringleaders of the "patriots deflated footballs to cutdown the amount of fumbles" argument.
like I said earlier. **** em.

 

[DSting]

538 has the Pats with a 70% chance of winning, for whatever it's worth.

 

[RayClay]

The analysis assumed two wins in the bank, including the toughest matchup on the road. Of course the chance of three or four wins is better than the chance of 3 or 4 starting from scratch. That's all the analysis is saying, hence the term "playing with house money."

 

[Urgent]

I believe their argument was the outcome is likely better than what was probabilistic under Brady.
The current odds of going 4-0 or 3-1 during this four-game stretch are higher now, having won two games already, than they were before the season, assuming Brady played.

Had Garoppolo had four games to showcase, the Patriots might have had more attractive offers for him after the season. At this point that's harder to predict.

 

[patchick]

I have a ton of respect for the 538 guys, but...obviously, every team's "expected wins" out of a 2-game stretch is < 2.0. So every team that's ever started the season 2-0 is doing better than statistical projections, no?

 

[XLIX]

Statistical projections are fun, but can often be nonsensical. Suppose, for example, with Brady, the Patriots were projected to win 1.8 of their first 2 games. They have therefore outperformed the statistical projections. Of course, the projection itself doesn't make sense because you can't win 1.8 games.

By definition, any team with 2 wins has outperformed their statistical projections.

EDIT: I just saw Patchick beat me to the punch with the above comment. I wasn't trying to copy her.