Some possible Maroney scenarios, ranked worst to best:
1. His hands get no better, yesterday was a fluke and from now on he can't catch a cold. He regresses in all blocking assignments and blitz pickup, and his YPC dips under 4.
This is the opposite of the current trend. Given a cheap multiyear contract and no evidence or indication that this has happened or is likely to happen, this is not actionable speculation. Were we to see any signs of this, then it might be worth thinking about addressing it.
2. His hands are okay, but not spectacular. His ability to pick up blitzes and block are okay but not spectacular. He runs right at the league average of (I believe) 3.9 ypc.
This is still beneath his current level of performance, and the trend line is all wrong. But were this to occur, or were the trend line to run in this direction, it would be worth watching, and if we truly believe McFadden is a blue-chip can't-miss guy, maybe it's worth investigating the McFadden option. Probably not, given what that pick could be worth in depth. It may mean however reversion to an Antoine-Smithian level of production... something that might not be a season killer, given the receiving options
3. His hands are actually pretty good and getting better, and he's great "in space." He has goal line issues and still dances a bit too much. ("dance" = When he shifts foot to foot it's in the absence of a simultaneous forward lunge.) It's his style and cannot be corrected, so he will always get above average YPC, and is developing into a real sweet threat when used in space, but untrustworthy for short yardage.
Perhaps this is too much of a reaction to how he was used last night, but it's a credible possibility. Let's say this becomes the pattern for LoMo - a few catches in space, increasingly by design rather than checkdown. Some pitches. A little work between the tackles. Use Eckel and Evans as the battering rams. What does that make him? It makes him Kevin Faulk, but with years more tread left and the size to shoulder the load when it's required. Just as LoMo isn't the change-of-pace, quick shifty sure-handed 3rd down guy KF is, KF couldn't play game after game carrying 15 - 25 times like LoMo can (yes he's been injured, but the point is he has not been in a role, he's been the main guy on 1st and 2nd downs.) He brings enough that it makes no sense to go for a chance that you'll get that one stud that has it all in one package. We had Morris earlier this year, and if he comes all the way back the combination is great as far as a NE running threat goes. Again, very difficult to justify the argument that we "need" to change the tune.
4. His hands improve. His running in space continues to excel. His blitz pickup and blocking improves. The first few games of 07 in which he is TD-free are looked at as a puzzling fluke/sophomore slump. He hits the hole harder as time goes by, and all that tread we've saved by platooning him gives him a nice long career in NE. He's never a top 10 pick in your fantasy league but ends up as a lock for your #2 back year after year. You get the idea: he gets to the 1000 yard/10TD plateau, stays there. He gets the featured back job done, no ifs ands or buts, and you can count on him on 3rd and short and at the goal line, thanks to ongoing improvement on that fine line between "patience" a la the old Priest Holmes, and "dancing."
I actually see this as the positive version of the "most likely" scenarios. No, I do not mean to imply his production will ever rival Holmes in his prime, by the way, I was referencing the fact that patience is indeed a virtue, whereas too much patience, as it were, is a vice. It's all very Aristotle. Anyway... in this scenario there's no need for another RB. So before you tout this year's flavor of the year running back, you need to make sure you're getting that one stud running back, in any given draft, that's one for the ages. Remember that was supposed to be Reggie Bush? Well, he'll fill the stands. But right now, I'm taking LoMo at exactly the level we have him now. Why isn't anybody making that comparison, by the way? Bush was picked at the very top of the round LoMo was picked at the bottom of.... why hasn't anybody here mentioned how the "mighty" have fallen, in terms of Bush? Anyway, I do see scenario 4 as likely, with LoMo developing into a guy with a legit presence in the world of feature backs, not in that "elite" category we're always (unrealistically) hankering after. But a guy who can do many roles, who we would still back up with perhaps a Morris and an Eckel and an Evans, but who would make many of the skill sets represented there redundant (that's also called depth.) Again, I put this possibility as very likely, with "3" being the pessimistic outlook in which we need to shore up roles to complement LoMo, and "4" being the optimistic (yet just as likely) outlook.
5. The dream scenario: BB really does "love" Laurence Maroney, and we find out why in a very big way. Within a year, 100 yard rushing/100 yard receiving games become frequent events, and one or the other is virtually guaranteed. His total TDs plateau in the high teens every year. He becomes an elite running back. It's just a matter of coaching out some bad habits, using him correctly, etc. The presence of the receiving corps we have now is in large part retained, keeping extra men out of the box on opposing defenses. After this down patch, he becomes scarier and scarier, starting with the 07 playoffs and blooming into an LT-like threat in 2008.
Uh yeah. Well anyway, I'd put this scenario as just as likely as scenario (1) easily. From our amateur perches we can ask -- what's his problem getting into space? And we can answer, he shifts too much when he should attack. What if we're right, and the progress we demand is actually happening before our eyes? So you take that 4.2 YPC and it turns into 5.0, a Clinton Portisesque number (it's been close to that for long stretches already). You take that bleak role-only future and turn it into a complete back future. And along the way all these other optimizations happen - and suddenly he's a multidimensional threat, and no slouch at the stripe. In short, the "elite back" scenario. I don't put this as outside the spectrum of possibilities, I just see it as very unlikely.
Here's the news flash: you take any given strategy to optimize the chance of producing "that" back, and your odds are low. To me, it seems as likely that we've got "that guy," as it is that we'll get "that guy." A second realization we all need to get, is that if you start drafting attempts at "that guy" every year or two, you end up just burning high picks out of unsubstantiated hope.
I hope some of this hits home with you guys - we're dealing with a risk/reward world here. These aren't certainties that any of us can prove, they are possible futures and evaluations of what we perceive at present.
To compare the outcome of a chance we took in drafting Maroney, against the outcome of the chance Minnesota took in drafting Peterson (a good deal higher I might add) or for that matter, the outcome the Colts are getting out of Addai, is silly at this stage in the game.
Right now we need to say: is his position a problem? What is the trend line? Do we have to abandon the Maroney experiment?
I say the data don't suggest that, any more than the data suggest that Reggie Bush be ditched from the Saints, based on the fact that Peterson is excelling for the Vikings.
And never, ever make the mistake of thinking that a few months tells you all you need to know about your running back. If he's a scrub in the first place, maybe. But the exact same argument -- "what you expect out of a 1st round pick" -- has to be taken into account when deciding to "cut bait."
Now is too early.
PFnV
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