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TBC productivity

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by AndyJohnson, Mar 7, 2010.

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  1. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Fellow mods: Please do not merge with other TBC this is different than the "he's worth the contract/ no he isnt" thread

    Pro Football Focus has great stats that show plays played as well as what the player did (ie defend run, defend pass, rush the QB) and includes #s on sacks, QB hits, QB pressures (I take these with a grain of salt because they are unofficial, and seem to vary widely from team to team even when their pass rushes seem similar, very arbitrary it seems) However they seem a good source to contribute to a discussion of how well TBC played last year.

    TBC rushed the QB 355 times last season. He had 10 sacks 10 QB hits, 23 pressures and 2 blocked passes. I think the last 3 categories can be added together as they are similar but sacks are different. So TBC is 355/10/35 That is one sack about every 35 rushes and one other effective rush ever roughly 10.
    Here are numbers on other selected pass rushers.

    Peppers 446/10/44.....Interestingly he had the same # of sacks in 91 more pass rushes, and his other effective rush ratio is identical

    Jason Taylor 341/8/27 similar snaps 2 fewer sacks and 8 fewer effective rushes
    Joey Porter 354/9/16 same opportunities 1 less sack and less than half the effective rushes
    (Note these 2 tend to counteract the idea that TBC nly had numbers because anyone could get them vs the Bills)
    Dwight Freeney 469/15/61 Sack every 31 vs every 35 (works out to 2 more sacks on equal chances) and effective rush every 8 vs every 10, works out to about one more per game (based in equal rushes)
    Personally I think the advantage of one gap with no run worries should make the gap wider.
    Merriman 300/4/18 Not even close to TBCs production
    Jared Allen 631/16/60 Interestingly while the overall numbers are much higher the ratio is one sack every 39 (worse than TBC) and one other good rush every 10.5 (worse than TBC)

    Of course statistics can be twisted in many ways. TBCs #s would look better if he were out on the field actually rushing the passer more often, but by the same token ar elimited by the 2 gap D on 1st and 2nd down.

    Looking at all of the OLB/DEs it looks as if TBC, playing every down, would have gotten about 100-110 more pass rush attempts. Thats about 30% more. So te question is, if TBC is now entrenched as a started who will play full time, year long and be the #1 pass rusher can he keep the ratios where they were in 2009, which would result in:
    460 or so pass rush attempts
    13 sacks
    13 QB hits
    30 QB pressures
    2-3 Blocked passes and total numbers of
    460/13/45 which are better than what Peppers did last year to earn himself 13 mill a season

    FYI, Peppers 2008 and 2007 #s were:
    2008 551/14/61 (sack every 40 eff rush every 9+) about same as TBC per rush
    2007 326/2/18 /AWFUL
    So 2009 seems to be very indicative of what he is being paid for
     
  2. JR4

    JR4 In the Starting Line-up PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Outstanding info. This info sure justifies giving TBC the kind of contract
    he got. PATs FO knows what it is doing. :)
     
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2010
  3. Patspsycho

    Patspsycho Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    It'll only get better when we fortify the DL and get a legit threat on the other side to take away the focus on stoning him.
     
  4. DW Toys

    DW Toys In the Starting Line-Up

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    Hard work. Good stuff.
    DW Toys
     
  5. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Pro Bowl Player

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    Honestly, I think that TBC is a product of the system. Much like the year when Vrabel got 12.5 sacks, this season TBC got 10 sacks. I wouldn't get overexcited.

    TBC was not a full time starter but he was inserted at what BB felt were the most appropriate times to take advantage of his talents. So there really is no guarantee with another 100 snaps that he would produce at that same level since there's a good chance that if he plays more, he'd have to play during running downs, which means he won't be padding his pass rushing numbers on those plays.

    TBC fits the Patriots system, he knows it well, he's a good fit for us, and he is worth the contract he was given imo, but that does not make him a better player than Peppers, Merriman, Jared Allen, etc.

    Just look at Deion Branch, after being taken out of the Pats system, has he ever come even close to the numbers he put up in New England after he moved to Seattle?
     
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2010
  6. JR4

    JR4 In the Starting Line-up PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Then you could say Freeny and Taylor are a "product of the system",
    whatever that means.

    He may not be better than top rushers in the league but if he is used the
    right way he is right up there with the best of them and I think these stats
    support that idea. And his cost is a lot less!
    I agree with Patspsycho, upgrade the end of the Dline and watch what
    happens.
     
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2010
  7. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I think you misunderstood. It isnt 100 fewer plays, its 100 fewer times RUSHING THE PASSER, which basically equates to 100 pass plays he was on the sidelines for.
    The question isnt whether he is better than those players.
    The exercise was to show how he compares in all of the cases where he rushed the passer to the production of those players.
    He compares very favorably.

    In essence, he played about equally as well as Peppers as a pass rusher, given 80% of the opportunities.
    The question is whether the 20% he didn't play would be as effective.
    What I think you are missing is the fact that he had as many sacks as Peppers in 91 fewer chances to try and get one, and in those 91 chances Peppers 'rushed effectively' 9 times, which is the exact ratio TBC had in his 355 attempts.
    There is absolutely no doubt that TBC was equally as effective a pass rusher as Julius Peppers in 2009.
    What is debatable is whether he can accept the larger role.

    Regardless of the levels of talent, they produced the same thing, and that really is all that matters, with the exception of course of snaps played.

    My point was simply that if Peppers is considered a dominant pass rusher, then TBC had a great season as a pass rusher, and we should expect that he will help us a lot in 2010.
     
  8. patsox23

    patsox23 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    AJ, always love your posts, but wanted to ask, Isn't Pro Football Focus the site that listed Brady behind Garrard as a QB, and Mayo behind Guyton? Even taking into account the fact that the stats are based on productivity/effectiveness THIS season, that makes me question their methods and math. That said, I do think what you've posted here is fairly hard to argue with, so maybe some of their stuff, like this, is worth looking at. Seems to be.
     
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2010
  9. patsinthesnow

    patsinthesnow PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Wow, those are some awesome stats. People think "once a JAG, always a JAG".

    Steelers James Harrison disproved this by being cut a couple of times to being the DPOY.
     
  10. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I'm using their raw stats, not their opinions.
    I did note that looking the 'pressure' category, it should be taken with a grain of salt because it is unofficial and could be applied arbitrarily.
     
  11. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Pro Bowl Player

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    And you don't think that 'Blitzburgh's' aggressive 3-4 defensive scheme didn't have a lot to do with Harrison's success? Look, I'm not disputing that Harrison is a talented player in his own right, but the 3-4 defense tends to make its OLBs look better than they actually might be.

    I think that's why year after year, Pittsburgh can let big name linebackers walk and still enjoy a tremendous amount of success on defense with replacement players. Linebackers are fungible in their 3-4 system. I think the same is true of the Pats 3-4 to a certain extent. This may also well explain BB's lack of emphasis in drafting linebackers early outside of Jerod Mayo.

    Vrabel and TBC do have a certain degree of talent that contributed to their success, absolutely. But take them outside of the Pats system and do you see them putting up Peppers or Jared Allen type numbers? I don't see it happening.
     
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2010
  12. Sleeping King

    Sleeping King Practice Squad Player

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    I hate to downplay the significance of doing well against a division rival but TBC did have half of his sacks in the two games against Buffalo.

    I'm certainly glad he is back but you are mentioning him in the same sentence as some elite pass rushers.
     
  13. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I think a lot is perception also. Our system simply doesnt lend itself to individual players getting gaudy stats. And perception is that stats equal talent. Defensively that simply isnt true, and in our system its not close to true.
    We absolutely value versatile players. We want the LB who is better in his area of weakness not the one who has the greatest strengths. Then we ask them to do it all, at the expense of sack totals.
     
  14. Brady2Welker

    Brady2Welker Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    We beat them by 1 and 7 respectively, it wouldn't be a leap of faith to say that without 5 QB sacks that we could have lost the game. I know Fitzpatrick isn't P. Manning who you need to have pressure on to succeed, but after seeing Chad Henne shred our defense, I wouldn't put it past Fitzpatrick to without being sacked.


    I was going to comment on that, that if OP was was using raw data and drawing his own conclusions it was much accurate. That said, however, all data needs to taken with a grain of salt.


    Also, regarding system players, although that's true, you want to tell me that most good pass rushers aren't system players? Jared Allen, immensely talented as he is would be slightly less good without the Williams wall. Freeney wouldn't be as great without their line too. Every defensive player is in some way, a product of the system. Because if you're with awful JAGs at Dline, you can get doubled/chipped all day.
     
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2010
  15. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    And those games were 20% of our wins.
    Taylor and Porter played them twice too
    Peppers had 4 of his 10 in back to back games against the dregs in Washington and Tampa. Eliminate those 2, and TBC vs Buffalo, and you have Peppers with 1 more sack in 90 more rush attempts and still a lower ratio.
    Peppers also had 16 of his 33 pressure in a 3 game span near the end of the season when the Panthers were out of it, so if you donwgrade TBC for inconsistency Peppers is equally incncistent. By the way, I think you will find that with almost any pass rusher.
     
  16. patsinthesnow

    patsinthesnow PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    YouTube - James Harrison intercepted Kurt Warner for 100 yards

    You could argue it's the Steelers system, but a system player wouldn't make that play.
     
  17. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Pro Bowl Player

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    Why not? It was his assignment to drop back on that play. Warner did not anticipate Harrison dropping back, and on the runback he had some good blocking in front of him. That play happened by design. It's the perfect example of the Pittsburgh scheme at work. They blitz you and pressure you on one play, then bring pressure from a different area and/or drop a guy into coverage on the next.
     
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2010
  18. Sleeping King

    Sleeping King Practice Squad Player

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    Although I think the real difference that seems to be overlooked is that TBC isn't the focal point of a offensive teams strategy.

    Peppers, Allen and Freeney are going against a glut of double teams and protection slides. I don't have the stats to back it up but I would venture to say he had half the double teams of those elite pass rushers. I just hope this doesn't come off as a bash TBC post. It certainly is not intended that way. He's the best we have right now at getting pressure.
     
  19. PATSYLICIOUS

    PATSYLICIOUS Pro Bowl Player

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    Great stuff, thanks for sharing.
     
  20. PatsBoy12

    PatsBoy12 Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    This is a very good thread. Great information!
     
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