Tavon Wilson

[unoriginal]

I know what Patchick was doing, which is why I noted the rounds. Using the Patchick method would make getting the #1 pick at #2 a bigger 'steal' than getting the #51 pick with the last pick in the draft. I often wonder why people try playing those sorts of games when the responses are so obvious, but they do it all the time.

patchick has already responded, but I'll say that I don't think any game is being played here. It's another way of looking at the draft, with picks valued exponentially instead of linearly, and when I look at any distribution of draft pick performance, I think the "chart value" idea is closer to the truth than the "block of rounds" method, i.e. that the difference in impact between your average 1st round and 4th round picks is much greater than the difference between your average 4th round pick and 7th round pick, despite them being separated by the same number of rounds.

I would further say that the difference between 1st and 2nd round being roughly equal to the difference between 2nd round and street free agent seems to have much to recommend it.

When a player is taken in the 1st round, its basically 50/50 whether he is going to develop into a quality starter, i.e. starting for multiple years, performing well and going to Pro Bowls etc. For a player in the 2nd round, it's 50/50 whether he's in the NFL at the end of his rookie contract, and it drops off from there, to where maybe 20% of players taken in round 6-7 last four years on the bottom of the roster, a number buoyed by third-string quarterbacks, kickers and punters.

Let us consider 2010, the draft where the players are right on the cusp of their rookie contracts, and the draft where the Patriots are being unanimously toasted for their acumen in the later rounds:

# of First Rounders who have made a Pro Bowl: 14
# of Second Rounders who have made a Pro Bowl: 3
# of Third Rounders: 2
# of Fourth Rounders: 2
# of Fifth Rounders: 1
# of Sixth Rounders: 1
# of Seventh Rounders: 1
# of UDFAs: 1

And even in the most anomalous years I would be surprised to see more than half as many 2nd round Pro Bowlers as 1st rounders.

I would say the notion that taking a 6th round pick in the 2nd round (i.e. Tavon Wilson) is worse value than taking a 2nd round pick in the 1st round (i.e. Jerod Mayo) is not true. Certainly it is not clear cut, even presuming that Mel Kiper or even Rich Gosselin are "right" about where a player would have gone.

As for seeming absurdities such as the difference between the #1 and #2 players being worth the #51 ranked player, to the bad teams that pick in those spots in the draft, having the choice between taking the best player at a franchise position (say QB vs. LB) is probably worth the 50/50 crapshoot of that #51 player. If drafts were redistributed based on NFL production, that 51st pick is probably a Steve Gregory-type of player. There might be cap-savings in such a selection, improving the roster elsewhere or at a later time, but no improvement in play at the position in question.

 

[jbb9s]

Brilliant pick... This was the pick there not only made BB move dmc to safety, but also traded for Talib :singing:

So ending up with a posible all-pro safety and corner is worth a second round pick

There are 2 all pro safeties in the NfL and maybe 4 pro bowl safeties from each conference each year.

DMC isn't included in either subset.

 

[cstjohn17]

I remember being at a work meeting when he was picked and a co-worker had his computer open to ESPN. I asked for a scouting report and the site said "No information available, priority free agent".

Epic reach but the draft is 50/50 at best. Win some lose some.

 

[Ring 6]

There are 2 all pro safeties in the NfL and maybe 4 pro bowl safeties from each conference each year.

DMC isn't included in either subset.

Because they have not selected all pro or pro bowl players since McCourty switched to S full time.

 

[Deus Irae]

It's no game, Deus, it's reality.

Of course it was a game. You know that Mayo was nowhere near the reach Wilson was, so you tried shading the point with the chart.

For many of you, the "reaches" don't even exist when the Patriots make them. Now, suddenly, we're supposed to play two different versions of them by bringing in the draft chart?


Nice try.

 

[Deus Irae]

I don't know why this is even a topic at this point. The guy is almost certainly a waste at safety. His replacement is already on the roster. Just move on. :confused2:



2006-2009 was terrible (actually you can go back to 2004 for DBs), but you are making the same mistake most detractors do, giving current blame for past mistakes.

McCourty and Dennard are clear wins since 2010 and Ryan and Harmon both look promising. Ebner has been what Bill hoped for. Even Tavon currently provides significant ST value when you consider that Bill felt it more crucial to promote someone to fill his spot than having another backup DT this week.

Since 2010, out of 8 selections, only three were misses (with one coming in the 7th round) with two still undetermined, though early returns are promising.

I'm not sure why you think you should be cutting the line at 2010, but that's an arbitrary spot. Furthermore, you're claiming Wilson offers value. He's offered none this year.

I'll leave it, and the thread, at that, because getting into Ebner just takes us beyond ridiculous.

 

[jbb9s]

Because they have not selected all pro or pro bowl players since McCourty switched to S full time.

You are really discrediting yourself.

 

[Oswlek]

I'm not sure why you think you should be cutting the line at 2010, but that's an arbitrary spot. Furthermore, you're claiming Wilson offers value. He's offered none this year.

I'll leave it, and the thread, at that, because getting into Ebner just takes us beyond ridiculous.

Are you drunk? :confused4: