Tavon Wilson

[Deus Irae]

patchick got you with "chart value." Mayo was taken at pick 10, which is approximately 1,300 funbucks worth of draftpick. But he was scouted as a latter-half first round guy. Gosselin had him as the #19 player overall, and that was high value compared to most mocks. The internet is awash in mocks putting him between pick 29 and 32, if he was going in the first round at all. But even so pick 19 is worth 875 funbucks, thus Mayo was overdrafted by (at least) 425 points of chart value.

Tavon Wilson at pick 48 was worth 420 funbucks so...

I know what Patchick was doing, which is why I noted the rounds. Using the Patchick method would make getting the #1 pick at #2 a bigger 'steal' than getting the #51 pick with the last pick in the draft. I often wonder why people try playing those sorts of games when the responses are so obvious, but they do it all the time.

 

[Deus Irae]

that's a bit simplistic.

Mayo was predicted by most before the draft to be a late 20+ pick. He was picked number 10.

He was definitely considered a reach at the time.

A "reach" of 10 picks or so for a player who was rising up draft boards versus a "reach" of 3+ rounds.....


No matter how often you try taking that train, it's never going to get you where you're trying to go.

 

[Joker]

"At the end of the 2008 season, in which Mayo had 128 total tackles (100 solo, 28 assists) and a forced fumble, he was named AP Defensive Rookie of the Year for 2008 in a near-unanimous vote: Mayo received 49 of 50 votes cast, with Cincinnati Bengals linebacker Keith Rivers receiving the other vote."

I don't give a shyt WHAT anyone thinks his draft status SHOULD have been...he IS the best LB out of that draft..to prove my point, HERE is the blurb from Pro football Flatulence..er...Focus...LOOK at whoi they say WE should have taken instead of Mayo...

10. Jerod Mayo, ILB, New England

Value: The Patriots’ only true every-down linebacker has been better this year than either of his first two years. But a top-ten pick? Well, he’s no Patrick Willis.

Interesting Stat: After grading 38th in his rookie year and 39th in Year 2, his current position of 16th is the highest Mayo has graded in our inside/middle linebacker rankings.

Grade: B-

Re-do pick: After saying goodbye to Asante Samuel, the Patriots could have used a guy like Aqib Talib, and Talib would have enjoyed a guy like Bill Belichick.

 

[ATippett56]

"At the end of the 2008 season, in which Mayo had 128 total tackles (100 solo, 28 assists) and a forced fumble, he was named AP Defensive Rookie of the Year for 2008 in a near-unanimous vote: Mayo received 49 of 50 votes cast, with Cincinnati Bengals linebacker Keith Rivers receiving the other vote."

Jerod Mayo was drafted in the first round. Jerod Mayo also received a first round draft grade. I don't see the problem with the selection of Jerod Mayo.

As for Tavon Wilson, that is a completely different story.

 

[Deus Irae]

....I don't give a shyt WHAT anyone thinks his draft status SHOULD have been...he IS the best LB out of that draft..to prove my point, HERE is the blurb from Pro football Flatulence..er...Focus...LOOK at whoi they say WE should have taken instead of Mayo...

The next 5 LBs taken after Mayo*:

Curtis Lofton
Jordon Dizon
Tavares Gooden
Dan Connor
Shawn Crable


*I wanted Clady and thought picking Mayo sucked because I wanted the pass defending LT (and I thought Mayo would be getting taken too high, though Mayock had him at 9 as I recall), but I conceded at the time that Belioli would probably win out with the Mayo pick as the right move. Time has shown both to be excellent picks, but Bruschi retired before Light, so BB definitely made the right choice, IMO.

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england-patriots/messageboard/13/81674-official-2008-nfl-draft-discussion-page9.html#post873371

 

[Joker]

The Pats didn't use a 1st round pick on Wilson, it was a low 2nd...and it came out of nowhere...he had a fairly good rookie season, he's regressed this year according to all and for that he must be excoriated and torn to pieces, labeled a bust and used as a conduit to the bashing of an even bigger target, Belichick.

It never ends here...every day it's "war on everything the Patriots do!!!" by I.M. InternetGeniusGuy....Wilson may very well wash out, he may just as easily work out in time. A season where he worked his way up to 43% of the snaps recording 4 INT's is an acceptable start...except for some people here...for them it's a reason to burn him at the stake.

 

[Deus Irae]

The Pats didn't use a 1st round pick on Wilson, it was a low 2nd...and it came out of nowhere...he had a fairly good rookie season, he's regressed this year according to all and for that he must be excoriated and torn to pieces, labeled a bust and used as a conduit to the bashing of an even bigger target, Belichick.

It never ends here...every day it's "war on everything the Patriots do!!!" by I.M. InternetGeniusGuy....Wilson may very well wash out, he may just as easily work out in time. A season where he worked his way up to 43% of the snaps recording 4 INT's is an acceptable start...except for some people here...for them it's a reason to burn him at the stake.

His getting snaps ahead of Patrick Chung doesn't prove he can play. Wilson was mostly awful last year.

 

[Aßßynormal]

It Is What It Is » Safety Tavon Wilson downgraded to out for Patriots

Well, Ebner and K. Davis are up I guess (with Cole gone from STs as well).

 

[Joker]

His getting snaps ahead of Patrick Chung doesn't prove he can play. Wilson was mostly awful last year.

pretty harsh criticism...what did you expect, Rod Woodson?

here is the post mortem after the 2012 season on his play...again, he was a ROOKIE...

Breaking Down Tavon Wilson?s Fit in New England | NEPatriotsDraft.com - 2014 NFL Draft

"One might wonder why the Patriots chose to add onto the position so early in the draft with other plans already in play. Well, clearly Belichick and the rest of New England’s brass aren’t afraid to stock the pond before fishing it out.

In the best-care scenario, the younger Wilson wins the starting job. If he is unable to do so this year or next year, it will be a tough pill to swallow for the Patriots organization. But if we do know one thing, it’s that he won’t be handed the reins by default. And that tough love may help him in the long run."

we're one chapter into the Tavon Wilson Story...give it a few more before the fiery pits of the "Patriots can't draft!" abyss swallows yet another hapless victim.

 

[ATippett56]

we're one chapter into the Tavon Wilson Story...give it a few more before the fiery pits of the "Patriots can't draft!" abyss swallows yet another hapless victim.

Chapter One was last season; Chapter Two is this season and the pages are currently blank.

 

[Deus Irae]

pretty harsh criticism...what did you expect, Rod Woodson?

here is the post mortem after the 2012 season on his play...again, he was a ROOKIE...

Breaking Down Tavon Wilson?s Fit in New England | NEPatriotsDraft.com - 2014 NFL Draft

"One might wonder why the Patriots chose to add onto the position so early in the draft with other plans already in play. Well, clearly Belichick and the rest of New England’s brass aren’t afraid to stock the pond before fishing it out.

In the best-care scenario, the younger Wilson wins the starting job. If he is unable to do so this year or next year, it will be a tough pill to swallow for the Patriots organization. But if we do know one thing, it’s that he won’t be handed the reins by default. And that tough love may help him in the long run."

we're one chapter into the Tavon Wilson Story...give it a few more before the fiery pits of the "Patriots can't draft!" abyss swallows yet another hapless victim.

I hope the kid starts to get it and turns it around, but he's been lousy so far. Pointing that out isn't a "war on everything the Patriots do".

 

[Joker]

I hope the kid starts to get it and turns it around, but he's been lousy so far. Pointing that out isn't a "war on everything the Patriots do".

sorry you feel like collateral damage because of my "war" comment. That was NOT my intention. I refer to the constant derision on this board whenever any player doesn't immediately meet the unbelievably unrealistic standards set by the BB Can"t Draft Coalition. Wilson so far has been an important special teams contributor...he's hurt...napalm him now is the solution the Coalition espouses. Jeezus krist, when the reasoning is he sucks because BB drafted Mayo too high, inferring once again, BB doesn't know what he's doing, I don't think there is ANY level of play Tavon Wilson can achieve here to satisfy them.

 

[Oswlek]

I don't know why this is even a topic at this point. The guy is almost certainly a waste at safety. His replacement is already on the roster. Just move on. :confused2:

In that case, he'd still have been horribly overdrafted, and you'd be assuming some absolutely horrible scouting on the part of the staff.

The most obvious explanation is the most likely: BB screwed up the pick just as he's been screwing up DB pics for years.

2006-2009 was terrible (actually you can go back to 2004 for DBs), but you are making the same mistake most detractors do, giving current blame for past mistakes.

McCourty and Dennard are clear wins since 2010 and Ryan and Harmon both look promising. Ebner has been what Bill hoped for. Even Tavon currently provides significant ST value when you consider that Bill felt it more crucial to promote someone to fill his spot than having another backup DT this week.

Since 2010, out of 8 selections, only three were misses (with one coming in the 7th round) with two still undetermined, though early returns are promising.

The Pats seldom go into the draft with gaping roster holes, but when they do they tend to be aggressive in filling them. Three other crystal-clear need-driven reaches that leap to mind:

Logan Mankins
Stephen Gostkowski
Jerod Mayo (by "chart value," far and away the biggest reach of BB's tenure

As far as I can tell, NE has only had three first round picks that weren't blatant needs, Watson, McCourty and HT. Notice that two of them are second selections in the draft, and in retrospect, DB was a much bigger need than we realized at the time in 2010.

Need is a substantially larger part of the "value" calculation than most fans realize.

 

[patchick]

I know what Patchick was doing, which is why I noted the rounds. Using the Patchick method would make getting the #1 pick at #2 a bigger 'steal' than getting the #51 pick with the last pick in the draft. I often wonder why people try playing those sorts of games when the responses are so obvious, but they do it all the time.

It's no game, Deus, it's reality. The much-maligned "chart value" -- now that the rookie scale has made the top picks desirable again -- is a surprisingly accurate model of not just trade value but likelihood of success and impact in the NFL. The real "playing games" is pretending that the difference between, say, pick #1 and pick #51 is the same as between pick #201 and pick #501.

That's because the draft is a RANKING. In rankings, distances between entries vary enormously, with the top items typically wide apart followed by a clumping. That's true of everything from the Fortune 500 ranking to the year's most popular baby names.

Maybe it's hard to conceptualize because there's no numeric metric. Let's pretend we were drafting companies instead. Mayo was considered a borderline 1st/2nd rounder, more often mocked in the 2nd than the 1st in the final days before the draft. (Go back and look!) He was picked 10th rather than 32nd. In market equity terms, that means you had an asset expected to be:

#32 Walt Disney, $37 billion

and you spent:

#10 AIG, $104 billion

That's a whopping $67 billion reach.

Now consider that you only spent $25 billion (BlackRock) for Tavon Wilson.

 

[patchick]

Wait a second, I've got it! Dead simple:

Deus, I have picks #32 & #48.

I'll trade them to you for your picks, #10 & #200.

Since you think Wilson was a much, much bigger reach than Mayo, you should leap at this chance to totally fleece me, right? Because the difference between 48 and 200 is so much more than the difference between 10 and 32.

 

[Kontradiction]

I think the question is whether he can play safety "in a pinch". Seriously, we would likely move McCourty over to corner rather than use Wilson at corner, where he has never played since coming to the NFL. I'm not even sure that Wilson would be better than Edelman or a street free agent.

That hurts 2 positions as McCourty is a much better FS that's a CB. Also, Troy Brown and Edelman never played CB either and they did it in a pinch.

 

[AzPatsFan]

A "reach" of 10 picks or so for a player who was rising up draft boards versus a "reach" of 3+ rounds.....Beliochick desperately neded a SS who had som coverage ability for hsi rebuilding Chung was a failure,despite the credentials.

No matter how often you try taking that train, it's never going to get you where you're trying to go.

When the last train our of town is leaving, you don;t quibble about getting your preferered seat preference.

I challenged any one to come up with a better SS candidate from all the subsequent picks in that draft and ZERO of the putative draftniks and loudest critics could. But later some draftnik schmuck offered an 175 # :Safety"/ returner as a SS candidate, because he had some success as a returner. He was as much a SS as Slater is a WR.

 

[FredFromDartmouth]

Yes, they took Wilson instead of Casey Hayward, a starting CB. Big whiff there.

 

[PATSNUTme]

Cripe another draft redo thread as if this topic has not been covered before in the very same way about the very same player, several times.

But people seem to have fun doing it.

 

[RayClay]

Cripe another draft redo thread as if this topic has not been covered before in the very same way about the very same player, several times.

But people seem to have fun doing it.

C'mon Patsnut. If we keep doing them, they're sure to let us redo the draft one of these years!