Tavon Wilson

[Urgent]

I still can't figure out why they wasted a 6th on Tom Frigging Brady, any draftnik could have told you that Giovanni Carmozzi was a much better prospect. Brady was the slowest QB ever at the Combine, and if you saw his picture there he looked more like one of those guys who criticize every draft than a player. Christ, what a waste, they had Micheal Bishop and Bledsoe already and Bishop had an absolute cannon and could run a 3.84 40.

So the Patriots drafted Tom Brady in the sixth round.

Is this brilliant move, then, prove that the Patriots cannot make bad drafting decisions? When they depart from the conventionally-rated prospects, does the drafting of Tom Brady prove the Patriots are smarter than everyone else?

I'm not sure even the Brady pick, in the 6th, is at all controversial. That's about where he was rated. I think the point above would have been stronger had Brady been rated at that level, when the Pats took him in the second, endured the controversy, and then won three Super Bowls.

I think we can all agree, hard as that is sometimes, that Wilson in the second was a surprise. Most folks who follow the draft closely expected him two to four rounds later. There's a decent industry assessing the NFL draft, and while none of us have access to the exact ratings of the other 31 teams, the people paid for their analysis had Wilson much later.

There were glimmers of upside in the preseason. Wilson seemed very good covering tight ends in August.

Then came a couple injuries. Extensive playing time for second round picks is nothing out of the ordinary. Especially for players who are the top pick at the top area of need. Again, most of us would agree that the Patriots secondary was the top area of need last offseason. Wilson was the top pick in the secondary. Not surprising he got some playing time.

In my opinion, his results were about what would have been expected, having reviewed his college production. Consistent with a player rated as a 5th rounder or so. He benefitted from a couple tips early. And then he showed real struggles picking up coverage. None of the strong coverage over the middle showed up in real games. Anyone remember a game in Seattle?

Of course, the concern going forward is the second year plummet in the Patriots secondary. Butler, Wheatley, Wilhite, McCourty. Players who showed promise in their rookie year had awful second seasons. Chung took an extra season to drop. Dowling delivered two incompletes. Could Wilson be the first recent player to challenge this trend?

Let's hope so.

However, if Wilson is pencilled as the starting safety for 2013, I'm not counting that toward the improved column for the New England secondary.

 

[JackBauer]

I love it. When PFF has a negative opinion of a Patriots player, there are 15 fanboys that scream "PFF sucks !" When PFF has a positive opinion of a Patriot player, no one says a word, all you hear is crickets.

Good to hear from PFF's resident representative and occasional Pats fan.

I think the reason people aren't screaming about PFF anymore is because it's been done a thousand times before, and most people are well aware that the site is to football analysis what the Daily Mail is to hard-hitting journalism.

 

[Pats0204]

I love it. When PFF has a negative opinion of a Patriots player, there are 15 fanboys that scream "PFF sucks !" When PFF has a positive opinion of a Patriot player, no one says a word, all you hear is crickets.

Ummm, a previous poster in this thread asked for a link to Tavon Wilson being one of the better rookie safetys. I simply googled "nfl rookie team" and it was one of the first sites to pop up. Sorry to ruffle you and DI's feathers. I don't have a strong enough opinion on PFF one way or the other to say whether they suck or not.

 

[ATippett56]

Where do Ebner and Gregory fit? The presumption being that McCourty stays at safety, who starts along side him? Where do options in FA and the draft come in?

With regard to the New England Patriots defensive backfield for the 2013 NFL Season:

FS1: Devin McCourty
FS2: Tavon Wilson (primary dime back/special teams)
SS1: 2013 NFL Draft 3rd Round Selection
ST1: Nate Ebner
ST2: Malcolm Williams

Potential options for the strong safety position vis-a-vis the 2013 NFL Draft:

D.J. Swearinger, FS, South Carolina, NFL Draft - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

Jonathan Cyprien, SS, Florida International, NFL Draft - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

Steve Gregory should be a salary cap casualty.

 

[Ivan]

So the Patriots drafted Tom Brady in the sixth round.

Is this brilliant move, then, prove that the Patriots cannot make bad drafting decisions? When they depart from the conventionally-rated prospects, does the drafting of Tom Brady prove the Patriots are smarter than everyone else?

Who said they can't make bad drafting decisions, I cited 2 in jackson and maroney, and they were "conventionally loved," whereas Mankins and Vollmer in particular were cited as huge reaches by the so called experts.

There is the thing urgent, the draft sites are basically looking at everything generically and most are simply rephrasing and regurgitating "analysis" from other draft sites. They don't understand the specific systems and real needs of each team and grade the players on some generically based rating that doesn't apply to team schemes, systems, and contract situations. And while there is always a general consensus as to who the top prospects are that pretty much falls apart after the first 60-70 picks, and it has no bearing on how teams have them stacked on their own boards because their assessments of their individual teams and it's needs are always radically different than the draft sites evaluations of them, which is why no draft site or draft "expert" ever comes even close to predicting any team's actual draft. Tavon Wilson is a great example of this, as was Sebastien Vollmer, as neither was invited to the combine or on any of the draft site's radar but both ended up as second round choices for the Patriots. So just because the self proclaimed experts don't rate then highly it doesn't mean that the teams feel the same way, and when they think a player is better than rated they are never going to say so because they don't want anyone to know any of what they are actually thinking.


I am not in any way suggesting the Patriots are always right on their picks and i have more than my share of WTF moments, however I do put their own analysis of prospects well above those of the Kipers or Wright's of the world as they have all the information and those people only a bit of it. The patriot's have done a poor job overall in drafting both WR and DB, but their drafting on the whole is good, and that's why they are able to stay on top while rebuilding an en tire team around Brady.

 

[patfanken]

So the Patriots drafted Tom Brady in the sixth round.

Is this brilliant move, then, prove that the Patriots cannot make bad drafting decisions? When they depart from the conventionally-rated prospects, does the drafting of Tom Brady prove the Patriots are smarter than everyone else?

I'm not sure even the Brady pick, in the 6th, is at all controversial. That's about where he was rated. I think the point above would have been stronger had Brady been rated at that level, when the Pats took him in the second, endured the controversy, and then won three Super Bowls.

I would agree that Ivan's Brady analogy doesn't make sense. But it shouldn't take away from the validity of his MAIN point, which I quoted in my post, which I thought was right on the money.

I think we can all agree, hard as that is sometimes, that Wilson in the second was a surprise. Most folks who follow the draft closely expected him two to four rounds later. There's a decent industry assessing the NFL draft, and while none of us have access to the exact ratings of the other 31 teams, the people paid for their analysis had Wilson much later.

This accurately sums up what we all thought back in April. To say most of us were "surprised" at the pick would be an understatement. But while not flawless, the Pats draft process is generally pretty astute. They obviously have a ton more information than the most informed draft services. They knew where "everybody" had Wilson slotted. So clearly they must have felt very strongly that Wilson was NOT going to last until the end of the 2nd round.

There were glimmers of upside in the preseason. Wilson seemed very good covering tight ends in August. Then came a couple injuries. Extensive playing time for second round picks is nothing out of the ordinary. Especially for players who are the top pick at the top area of need. Again, most of us would agree that the Patriots secondary was the top area of need last offseason. Wilson was the top pick in the secondary. Not surprising he got some playing time.

can't disagree with this.

In my opinion, his results were about what would have been expected, having reviewed his college production. Consistent with a player rated as a 5th rounder or so. He benefited from a couple tips early. And then he showed real struggles picking up coverage. None of the strong coverage over the middle showed up in real games. Anyone remember a game in Seattle?

This is overly harsh. I bet there were well over a dozen 2nd round picks who didn't play nearly as much or as well as Wilson, so to equate his play to a "5th rounder" makes no sense. And using the Seattle game to make your point? Low blow, Urgent. The 3rd game of his career, being thrown in after an injury, playing a new position...and he made a mistake?????. What a shock Its should also be noted that his partner at Safety was Nate Ebner, who had exactly 3 snaps at S his entire college career.

However, if Wilson is pencilled as the starting safety for 2013, I'm not counting that toward the improved column for the New England secondary.

I don't know how he will turn out either, nor do I know if after the draft and FA, he will be a starting S. But based on his rookie year, I would expect to see a better S than we saw last year, and the one we saw last year wasn't bad.

 

[Pats0204]

With regard to the New England Patriots defensive backfield for the 2013 NFL Season:

FS1: Devin McCourty
FS2: Tavon Wilson (primary dime back/special teams)
SS1: 2013 NFL Draft 3rd Round Selection
ST1: Nate Ebner
ST2: Malcolm Williams

Potential options for the strong safety position vis-a-vis the 2013 NFL Draft:

D.J. Swearinger, FS, South Carolina, NFL Draft - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

Jonathan Cyprien, SS, Florida International, NFL Draft - CBSSports.com - NFLDraftScout.com

Steve Gregory should be a salary cap casualty.

Love Swearinger and would love it even more if we can get him in the 4th round (I know we do not currently ave a 4th).

 

[Synovia]

I think we can all agree, hard as that is sometimes, that Wilson in the second was a surprise. Most folks who follow the draft closely expected him two to four rounds later. There's a decent industry assessing the NFL draft, and while none of us have access to the exact ratings of the other 31 teams, the people paid for their analysis had Wilson much later.

The thing you need to remember, is that there's a scouting service that about half the teams in the NFL use for almost all of their college scouting. That scouting service, which is pretty much where all the draftniks get their data, had Wilson rated late.

There are 16 or so teams that don't use that scouting service. Several of those teams (about 8 IIRC) use a 2nd scouting service, that is privately owned by those 8 teams, and doesn't release its data to the public/draftnicks.

The remaining 8 teams (to which the Patriots belong) have their own internal scouting departments.

So, basically, we know that there are 10 scouting agencies scouting college players for the NFL. We know that one of them had Wilson in the 6th round. We know that one other had Wilson in the 2nd round.

The problem here is that we have nowhere near enough info to make a reasonable assessment of whether or not Wilson went early. And 99% of the information we have comes from 1 source. We only get information (and incomplete information at that) from another source when a team picks a guy.

 

[Ivan]

There's a decent industry assessing the NFL draft, and while none of us have access to the exact ratings of the other 31 teams, the people paid for their analysis had Wilson much later.

.

There is a huge industry now covering the draft but the problem with it is that most of it is pure garbage. The bulk of it is just internet regurgitation and much of it inaccurate. that doesn't mean however that there aren't people like Mayock who actually do the film work to give a reasonable analysis of college prospects, but he is clearly in the minority. the majority simply read other draftniks on the web and rephrase and repeat what has already been said about them. But even for guys like Mayock to have to take that and then apply the individual circumstances of each team to the prospects is a task that is simply too large. they can look at team needs in generic ways and be fairly accurate, e.g.. the Patriots need help at WR, OL, and DB. but there are more levels to team needs that even the most diligent "experts" don't have access to, such as impending retirements (e.g..Matt Light) or medical evaluations, or contract concerns that would leave holes that many wouldn't see coming.


Don't get me wrong, I love the draft and I usually spend a good deal of time looking at the prospects coming out and deciding who I like and who I don't want them to go after, I just have learned over time not to confuse that with any kind of expertise on the matter. When they drafted Wilson I had a big time WTF moment, especailly with LaVonte David still on the board, and he was a binky, but Belichick, right or wrong, has really good reasons for making that call, and he clearly sees the potential in Wilson to be a starting safety for this team. Ig he's wrong, and he has been before on DB's then people can say what they want about that. What i do take issue with is those who want to say he is wrong without giving the kid the chance to prove it one way or another, which has clearly been the case at this site.

 

[ATippett56]

Love Swearinger and would love it even more if we can get him in the 4th round (I know we do not currently ave a 4th).

Typical Bill Belichick type player:

1. SEC competition
2. Team captain
3. Versatile (special teams, strong safety, free safety)
4. Prototypical size (5'-11", 210 pounds)

 

[Pats0204]

Typical Bill Belichick type player:

1. SEC competition
2. Team captain
3. Versatile (special teams, strong safety, free safety)
4. Prototypical size (5'-11", 210 pounds)

You forgot PHYSICAL! Seriously though, I love his physicality and aggressiveness. I am also of the belief that he will skyrocket up the boards come April after his workout numbers at the combine which is why I doubt he will be there in the 4th; even though that's where he currently is projected to go.

 

[Synovia]

I think there's also this misconception that a 2nd round pick SHOULD be a good player.


If I look back 4 years, to the 2009 draft (where guys should have played the 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 season), of the 32 picks,:

4 have gone to pro bowls (#42 Jarius Byrd, #49 Max Unger, #53 Lesean McCoy, #55 William Moore")

6 Have retired

There's a handful of other good players (Vollmer, etc). But most of the guys in the round are either below average starters on poor teams (Mauluga, Butler), depth on good teams, or roster filler/ST guys. And that was considered a fantastic draft going in.

You're lucky to get a guy who starts for a season or two out of a 2nd round pick.

 

[goheels22002]

Many people think we should go for Tavon Austin as a 1st round pick, but I think there are more talented WR in this draft than SS, as expected I guess. Hopefully, we'll get someone average-good at WR in the 2nd round.

With that said, go for Matt Elam, Kenny Vaccaro or Eric Reid on the 1st round, in that order of preference. There is no way 3 strong safeties are drafted in the top 27, so we're getting one of those.
Wilson? There will be time to develop him. This is a critical position for NE; we need proven talent as soon as possible.

The defense needs physical corners who can hold their own outside the numbers and step up on the edge on run/screen plays. Dennard is a tough guy out there, and Talib is too. But they shouldn't bet on him.

The Pats ought to pick David Amerson CB out of NCSU with their first pick - a gigantic corner with great ball skills. 6-3, 195 lbs - tied Dre Bly for the NCAA record with 13 INTs a couple of years ago. Nobody threw in his direction this year so his stats are down. But he's got the size and speed to match up with big receivers opposite Dennard. He's projected late 1st/early 2nd.

I'd keep McCourty and Gregory as the starters at safety with Tavon Wilson as a backup, and go get one more later in the draft or undrafted free agent. Wilson did a good job as a rookie. Safeties don't come into their own until their 3rd or 4th year - it takes experience back there to see what's going on. McCourty matured this year before our eyes in his 3rd season. I believe that if Talib hadn't pulled his hammy the Ravens game would have turned out differently.

 

[AzPatsFan]

trying to convince any self appointed draft guru about anything, is a waste of time. Tavon Wilson was a respectible rookie registering 40 tackles and 4 picks for his rookie season.

Everyone overlooks the way the NFL is evolving. Now the "big new idea" is to draft a big corner and turn him into a Safety. So you can cover the TEs and RBs out of the backfield, while sacrificing the run stopping of the in-the-box SS.

Gee Whiz Isn't that EXACTLY what BB did? Back before it was the new "fashionable" thing to do, he drafted a "big corner" who had actually played S in college too. Quelle Idee! It seems simpler to have a non-coverage LB assigned to cover the draws and delayed runs, while putting a more agile, competent, "coverage" safety in to chase the TEs and RB/Receivers.

Isn't BB a pure Genius, anticipating once again???

 

[Kontradiction]

It certainly wasn't a bad pick by any means, could the pick have been better? Maybe, but bad? No. Safety was the #1 need we had going into the draft. I was high on Casey Hayward going into the draft, but Dennard has also played at an extremely high level.

You want to know how you can tell it was a bad pick? Two ways. One, was he drafted a lot higher than he should have been? Two, is there still a need at the position that he was drafted for?

 

[Synovia]

You want to know how you can tell it was a bad pick? Two ways. One, was he drafted a lot higher than he should have been? Two, is there still a need at the position that he was drafted for?

Yeah, because every rookie is clearly a pro-bowl level starter or a bust.

We need another Tackle, and Vollmer was drafted too high. Is he a bad pick? We didn't even need a tackle when Solder was drafted, and he was drafted too high. Was he a bad pick?:bricks:

 

[Deus Irae]

Ummm, a previous poster in this thread asked for a link to Tavon Wilson being one of the better rookie safetys. I simply googled "nfl rookie team" and it was one of the first sites to pop up. Sorry to ruffle you and DI's feathers. I don't have a strong enough opinion on PFF one way or the other to say whether they suck or not.

No feathers ruffled here. My response was to Crowell, who was trying to claim a hypocricy that doesn't exist.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Wilson's playing time decreased as the season went on, but that was in large part due to Gregory getting healthy and McCourty moving full-time to safety. The jury's still out on him, although I'd be lying if I said I was super encouraged by what he did this year. He flashed some playmaking skills, but also the tendency to get caught out of position and give up huge plays. That's not a trade-off that Belichick is willing to make. He also showed a tendency to repeat the same mistakes, which is disheartening.

Hopefully another offseason of coaching will help him turn the corner, because the physical tools are there

 

[ATippett56]

Yeah, because every rookie is clearly a pro-bowl level starter or a bust.

By the end of the 2012 NFL Season, Tavon Wilson surpassed Patrick Chung as the New England Patriots primary dime back.

Going forward, once Steve Gregory, Patrick Chung, Kyle Arrington, Marquice Cole are replaced/upgraded, the New England Patriots will finally field a respectable pass defense.

 

[Deus Irae]

You want to know how you can tell it was a bad pick? Two ways. One, was he drafted a lot higher than he should have been? Two, is there still a need at the position that he was drafted for?

I think it's too early to close the book on Wilson, but I also think that anyone trying to claim he had a good year is going to really have to stretch the definition of the word 'good', because he was awful for a large part of the season. And I agree that having to address the safety position isn't a good sign, but I also think that BB is likely looking for a 3 safety group that are all starter level and above, because I think BB wants to really be able to count on things like the big nickel.

Gregory's not the answer. So, I think BB's looking at his safeties and sees that he's got McCourty and Wilson, and that the team still needs a front line safety even if Wilson pans out nicely. Personally, I saw a player that reminded me far too much of Patrick Chung, but he's still got time to develop, so I'm trying to keep an open mind moving forward.