T. Dilfer and the Mythology of the Irrelevant QB

[the taildragger]

The Ravens' all-time MVP, Ray Lewis, is still with the team today...unfortunately, so is Kyle Boller.

Dilfer had a fine season in 2000. Despite their defense, they would not have won the SB with Tony Banks. While it's hypothetically possible for another QB to have performed as well or better than Dilfer, this does not alter the following facts (CHFF-style):

• 8 games into 2000, Dilfer took over for the great Tony Banks.
• In the previous 8 games, the Ravens averaged 16.75 ppg and had not scored a TD in 16 quarters.
• In the following 12 games, they averaged 24.5 ppg.
• The QB replacement directly represented a 46% increase in TEAM PRODUCTION...there is no better illustration of how valuable the position of QB is...and this is apparently the "exception" to the rule.

But what about that defense?
The D's domination was the clear result of a historically weak schedule:

• They allowed 3.7ppg in 9 games against 26th average offenses
• They allowed 14ppg in 11 games against 12th ranked offenses

When the Titans 14th ranked offense put up 23 on the great Ravens' D, it took a heroic 4th quarter effort from Dilfer to escape with the one-point victory. That game was the springboard to their championship run.

There are always exceptions to any rule, but in that particular season, Dilfer was absolutely more valuable than anyone else on the roster.

Was he alone more valuble than the entire defense (as glorified as it was)? of course not. That's obfuscation.

Bottom line: We've had this debate over the past week. I've seen it repeated elsewhere a million times. QBs are more important than any other position on the field -- BY A MILE.

Funny how we in NE like to fawn over a great hitter or pitcher, but we can't see past the rhetoric when it comes to the most important position in team sports.

:eat1:

 

[dryheat44]

The problem with your analysis is that the PPG is skewed by defensive touchdowns, and defensive turnovers to give the offense a short field. I remember a stretch of 3 wins that season where the Ravens didn't score an offensive touchdown. Matt Stover was their offensive MVP that year.

Dilfer was handed the keys, and told not to smash it up. He did that.

Not that I disagree with your conclusion, but you could have found better arguments.

 

[BelichickFan]

Not that I disagree with your conclusion, but you could have found better arguments.

Yeah, like Bledsoe and Brady under Belichick.

Bledsoe : 5-13, 28%
Brady : 77%

I know, the team got better around Brady. In that case,

2001

Bloedsoe 0-2
Brady 14-3

This is why I'm happy the Jets passed on a QB. Although they have a high bust potential, they also have a "turn the franchise around singlehandedly" potential.

 

[Brady-To-Branch]

Dilfer's RS QB rating (9 RS games) was a below average 76.6.

Here is his 2000 game log...

+----------+--------------------------+----------------+
| WK  OPP  |  CMP  ATT   PYD  TD  INT |  QB Rat | '05 Rec | Score
+----------+--------------------------+----------------+-------
|  8  ten  |    7   13    58   0   1  |    33.5 |   13-3  | L 6-14
|  9  pit  |   11   24   152   0   1  |    49.3 |    9-7  | L 6-9
| 10 @cin  |   23   34   244   3   0  |   117.8 |   4-12  | W 27-7
| 11 @ten  |   23   36   281   2   1  |    94.8 |   13-3  | W 24-23
| 12  dal  |   18   24   242   2   2  |    99.7 |   5-11  | W 27-0
| 13  cle  |   12   23   169   2   1  |    87.0 |   3-13  | W 44-7
| 15  sdg  |   16   24   187   2   2  |    83.2 |   1-15  | W 24-3
| 16 @ari  |   12   22    70   0   1  |    41.9 |   3-13  | W 13-7
| 17  nyj  |   11   25    99   1   2  |    35.3 |    9-7  | W 34-20
+----------+--------------------------+----------------+
|  TOTAL   |  133  225  1502  12  11  |    76.6 |
+----------+--------------------------+----------------+

Dilfer 2000 Postseason:

Year  Opp   Result  |  CMP  ATT   PYD PTD INT   | QB Rat
---------------------+--------------------------+-----------------
 2000  den  W,21-3   |    9   14   130   1   0  |  118.2
 2000  ten  W,24-10  |    5   16   117   0   0  |   58.6
 2000  oak  W,16-3   |    9   18   190   1   1  |   83.1
*2000  nyg  W,34-7   |   12   25   153   1   0  |   80.9
---------------------+--------------------------+-----------------
TOTAL                |   35   73   590   3   1  |   83.7

Dilfer was a mediocre QB who played well enough for his team to win in 2000. But he has only been to the playoffs twice (1997, 2000) and hasn't played beyond the regular season since 2000.

The 2000 Giants were the worst NFC team to play in the SB. Their QB, Kerry Collins was hideous in SB XXXV. Moreover, if not for a late TD by Ron Dixon on a KO return, the Giants would have been the first team to be shutout in a SB.

I equate it to the NBA's Chicago Bulls. I firmly believe that you can't win a championship without a strong physical presence at center and power forward. Compare the Bulls with past NBA champions and their inside power game dosen't match up. The reason for their dynasty was Michael Jordan, a guard, and the greatest player in NBA history (please start another thread on a non-football board if you disagree, as I don't want this thread to be hijacked). From WK# 12 to SB 35, excluding a meaningless game against the Jets, the Ravens allowed no more than 10 points!

The 2000 Ravens had one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL...

ATT: 5th
YDS: 5th
TD: 9th
YPA: 8th

Meanwhile, the Ravens passing game wasn't very effective...

CMP  ATT   YD    YPA   TD INT
21   20    23     24   15  20

 

[the taildragger]

The problem with your analysis is that the PPG is skewed by defensive touchdowns, and defensive turnovers to give the offense a short field. I remember a stretch of 3 wins that season where the Ravens didn't score an offensive touchdown. Matt Stover was their offensive MVP that year.

Dilfer was handed the keys, and told not to smash it up. He did that.

Not that I disagree with your conclusion, but you could have found better arguments.

stover was the mvp huh?

the same defense that scored all those TDs was on the field before Dilfer took over...that does NOT account for the jump in production.

 

[the taildragger]

nice try.

my argument is not that Dilfer was a Hall of Famer, but that he was indeed the most valuable player on the team....not STOVER. Tony Banks had jamal lewis too.

I guess the message is still not getting through.

an 83 rating in the playoffs isn't good enough?...who were his receivers?

QB ratings are the absolute worst measurement of a QB's worth. Put PM in another offense and see what happens to his rating...same with Kurt "best rating ever" Warner.

Dilfer's RS QB rating (9 RS games) was a below average 76.6.

Here is his 2000 game log...

+----------+--------------------------+----------------+
| WK  OPP  |  CMP  ATT   PYD  TD  INT |  QB Rat | '05 Rec | Score
+----------+--------------------------+----------------+-------
|  8  ten  |    7   13    58   0   1  |    33.5 |   13-3  | L 6-14
|  9  pit  |   11   24   152   0   1  |    49.3 |    9-7  | L 6-9
| 10 @cin  |   23   34   244   3   0  |   117.8 |   4-12  | W 27-7
| 11 @ten  |   23   36   281   2   1  |    94.8 |   13-3  | W 24-23
| 12  dal  |   18   24   242   2   2  |    99.7 |   5-11  | W 27-0
| 13  cle  |   12   23   169   2   1  |    87.0 |   3-13  | W 44-7
| 15  sdg  |   16   24   187   2   2  |    83.2 |   1-15  | W 24-3
| 16 @ari  |   12   22    70   0   1  |    41.9 |   3-13  | W 13-7
| 17  nyj  |   11   25    99   1   2  |    35.3 |    9-7  | W 34-20
+----------+--------------------------+----------------+
|  TOTAL   |  133  225  1502  12  11  |    76.6 |
+----------+--------------------------+----------------+

Dilfer 2000 Postseason:

Year  Opp   Result  |  CMP  ATT   PYD PTD INT   | QB Rat
---------------------+--------------------------+-----------------
 2000  den  W,21-3   |    9   14   130   1   0  |  118.2
 2000  ten  W,24-10  |    5   16   117   0   0  |   58.6
 2000  oak  W,16-3   |    9   18   190   1   1  |   83.1
*2000  nyg  W,34-7   |   12   25   153   1   0  |   80.9
---------------------+--------------------------+-----------------
TOTAL                |   35   73   590   3   1  |   83.7

Dilfer was a mediocre QB who played well enough for his team to win in 2000. But he has only been to the playoffs twice (1997, 2000) and hasn't played beyond the regular season since 2000.

The 2000 Giants were the worst NFC team to play in the SB. Their QB, Kerry Collins was hideous in SB XXXV. Moreover, if not for a late TD by Ron Dixon on a KO return, the Giants would have been the first team to be shutout in a SB.

I equate it to the NBA's Chicago Bulls. I firmly believe that you can't win a championship without a strong physical presence at center and power forward. Compare the Bulls with past NBA champions and their inside power game dosen't match up. The reason for their dynasty was Michael Jordan, a guard, and the greatest player in NBA history (please start another thread on a non-football board if you disagree, as I don't want this thread to be hijacked). From WK# 12 to SB 35, excluding a meaningless game against the Jets, the Ravens allowed no more than 10 points!

The 2000 Ravens had one of the best rushing attacks in the NFL...

ATT: 5th
YDS: 5th
TD: 9th
YPA: 8th

Meanwhile, the Ravens passing game wasn't very effective...

CMP  ATT   YD    YPA   TD INT
21   20    23     24   15  20

 

[the taildragger]

Dilfer was handed the keys, and told not to smash it up. He did that.

another theory that gets casually tossed around...the "game manager" view of football.

we're talking about the QB postion right?

yeah, just go "manage the game" dude. good luck, go win the super bowl and don't screw up.

there's nothing EASY about it...the guy still has to touch the ball on every snap...he still has to set ever play in motion. If he's no good, it doesn't work.

It's time to stop pretending you can just get lucky and win a championship.

 

[the taildragger]

i'm starting to lose faith here.

I'm just not going to convert anyone who fails to understand the following key football concepts:
1. kickers are NEVER more valuable than quarterbacks.
2. this does not depend on who the kicker or QB are.
3. if you have Adam kicking but you have a lousy QB, you are not going to win games.
4. Great QBs make everyone on the team play better...including defensive personnel...this is a key concept...when an offense is clicking, it benefits the defense in a number of ways.
5. this is just one of 1000 reasons why QB ratings suck.

The premise of this thread is easily summed up in one sentence:

The Ravens changed their QB and averaged nearly 50% better team production in the 2nd half of the season on their way to a championship. This can't be explained away by defensive touchdowns or improved field goal kicking.

I'm really starting to lose faith here.

 

[OldEnglandPatriot]

i'm starting to lose faith here.

..SNIP...


The Ravens changed their QB and averaged nearly 50% better team production in the 2nd half of the season on their way to a championship. This can't be explained away by defensive touchdowns or improved field goal kicking.

I'm really starting to lose faith here.

I agree with you. And I agree that there is more to judging a quarterback than their rating. It's a 'passer' rating not a 'quarterback' rating isn't it?

 

[the taildragger]

thanks Old England -- I was starting to wonder if I was alone.

all I know is I look at that team and the "before" and "after" and the only thing separating the two is trent dilfer.

i'm not trying to put him in Canton, just trying to:
a. give the guy a little credit.
b. take the "exception" that supposedly DISproves the rule and make it PROVE the rule instead.

guys like Dilfer, B. Johnson, D. Williams repeatedly get slammed for falling into lucky situations and just letting people around them make plays....it's fool's logic and it's got to stop.

these guys were/are among the elite gridiron leaders who have ever played the game.

did John Elway win Super Bowls because he morphed into a mediocre game manager -- no, he won because he learned how to orchestrate the offense more effectively -- Shanahan taught him how to become a better QB -- he had the tools (those Denver teams in the 80s were very solid teams) he just needed the guidance.

I still haven't heard a definition of "game manager" that makes the position sound any less complex. I mean yeah, that's what they do, "manage the game" -- but people talk about it like it's autopilot.

there's an inbred paradigm in parts of patsdom that says every player counts equally...it's a great concept for the lockerroom, but it's also totally wrong and nobody actually believes it.

especially in the parity era, when relative to the rest of the team, the QB is even more valuable. Even Vrabel called it a "QB driven league." The only people who seem to still be fooled are the media and fanbase.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

I'm convinced. Where do I sign up for the Dump Brady Campaign?

 

[the taildragger]

point well taken.

i deserve the sarcasm.

if I'm too intense on this subject, it's because I keep repeating myself thread after thread.

I'm probably exaggerating the majority opinion...but I know for a fact there are some seriously ******ed journalists covering this team who want to make Adam Vinatieri (or someone else other than the QB) the MVP of our Super Bowls or team.

it's insane.

Not to reopen old wounds, but Bob Ryan -- as venerable a writer as we have -- went on an unbridled tirade at our owner/coach when it looked like $3.5M was too much for us -- he called Adam "as important as anyone else on the team." People look up to Ryan...but it's obvious he's never played the game.

 

[Brady-To-Branch]

I'm convinced. Where do I sign up for the Dump Brady Campaign?

Hey guys, why is Brady being talked about??? He's got nothing to do with this. Anyone with at least cursory knowledge of football knows better than to make silly Brady/Dilfer comparisons.

Hey, I've done battle with Brady bashers on other forums and of the many ignorant points that the Bashers use is the "Dilfer" argument. Did the Ravens ask Dilfer to pull the team out of the fire?

In SB 36 and the score tied at 17 with the ball, New England took over on its own 17 with 81 seconds to play and no timeouts. Compare that with Manning's performance on the Colts final drive in the Pittsburgh loss. Peyton started at his own 42 with a minute and 3 TOs left. I don't think Vanderjagt misses a chip shot. Instead of relying on a 46-yard FG attempt, Manning could have helped his kicker by getting the 1st down on 2nd and 2 at the Pitt 28, with 31 seconds left and two TOs remaining.

In SB 38, Brady led the New England offense to 11 points in the final three minutes. He ended the game passing for 354 yards and three scores and set a Super Bowl record with 32 completions.

In SB 39, Brady completed 23 of 33 passes for 236 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs and a 110.2 passer rating – the second highest rating allowed by the Eagles defense all season.

Again, I ask, what does this thread have to do with Brady???

 

[the taildragger]

a logical inferential leap was made based on all those comparisons you alluded to.

his point is well taken...the comparison is largely moot on this board (except for a few recent posters).

I would like to see Dilfer get credit as he's a genuinely good guy who had a lot to do with them winning...and that Baltimore defense is way overhyped.

just my 2 cents