dryheat44
Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract
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Re: Supplemental draft.
It would be BBs call. I don't know who else has traded their third-round picks, but let's say that everybody except Oakland has their original pick. If I understand the process correctly, if he bid Our original pick, that would put us #27 priority. In other words, If none of the 26 teams ahead of us bid a third round pick, we would be awarded the player.
If we bid Oakland's pick, that would give us the #20 priority, leapfrogging the Jets, Chiefs, Cowboys, Saints, Seahawks, Giants and Eagles.
Then balance the fact of where the Raiders pick is likely to be next year vs. the Patriots. It could easily be the #65 pick vs. the #96 pick. And so Belichick would have to decide whether leapfrogging those seven teams would be worth a potential 32 draft places. My guess is no, and that unless he thinks Oliver is truly a special player he'll bid the Patriots pick.
Now, knowing this, why not bid out the second rounder instead? The difference between the Patriots second rounder in 2008 and the Raiders third rounder could easily be 1 pick. Probably less than 10, so the value per pick bid would be much greater. To use round numbers, let's say the Patriots are drafting #30 and the Raiders #5. If the Patriots successfully bid their own third rounder, they'd be left with draft picks #12 (49ers), #30, #62, #69. If the Patriots successfully bid the Raiders third rounder, they would be left with #12, #30, #62, #94 with a slightly improved chance of getting Oliver. If they bid their second pick, they would be left with #12, #30, #69, #94, with a much, much greater probability of landing Oliver.
Note that this exercise is done with the assumption that within the three tiers, teams are slotted by inverse record from 2006. It is possible there is a random lottery process to slot them instead. If so, there's no benefit to bidding the Raiders pick.
The Raiders cannot bid a third rounder unless they trade for one between now and then.
It would be BBs call. I don't know who else has traded their third-round picks, but let's say that everybody except Oakland has their original pick. If I understand the process correctly, if he bid Our original pick, that would put us #27 priority. In other words, If none of the 26 teams ahead of us bid a third round pick, we would be awarded the player.
If we bid Oakland's pick, that would give us the #20 priority, leapfrogging the Jets, Chiefs, Cowboys, Saints, Seahawks, Giants and Eagles.
Then balance the fact of where the Raiders pick is likely to be next year vs. the Patriots. It could easily be the #65 pick vs. the #96 pick. And so Belichick would have to decide whether leapfrogging those seven teams would be worth a potential 32 draft places. My guess is no, and that unless he thinks Oliver is truly a special player he'll bid the Patriots pick.
Now, knowing this, why not bid out the second rounder instead? The difference between the Patriots second rounder in 2008 and the Raiders third rounder could easily be 1 pick. Probably less than 10, so the value per pick bid would be much greater. To use round numbers, let's say the Patriots are drafting #30 and the Raiders #5. If the Patriots successfully bid their own third rounder, they'd be left with draft picks #12 (49ers), #30, #62, #69. If the Patriots successfully bid the Raiders third rounder, they would be left with #12, #30, #62, #94 with a slightly improved chance of getting Oliver. If they bid their second pick, they would be left with #12, #30, #69, #94, with a much, much greater probability of landing Oliver.
Note that this exercise is done with the assumption that within the three tiers, teams are slotted by inverse record from 2006. It is possible there is a random lottery process to slot them instead. If so, there's no benefit to bidding the Raiders pick.
The Raiders cannot bid a third rounder unless they trade for one between now and then.
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