Where to begin...a better question might be why even bother. You don't grasp value and you have no understanding whatsoever of financials as you call them. The trade down potential from the top three picks in the first is dramatically skewed by the draft chart. Those picks are wildly overvalued compared to the rest of the draft. That is why so few teams can manage to trade down year after year. Similarly the compensation for those players in particular but the top 8-10 in general is so out of whack value wise that it's a stretch to draft well there at all let alone after surrendering picks that financially represent better value like late first rounders to do so... The Lions had a chance to swap a third for a RFA DT. They passed it up. Probably because they realized they were guaranteed the opportunity to snag a second round talent at the top of the third this season as well as a first round talent at the top of the second. This is a draft where first round grades run 40 deep per our own FO (specifically Floyd Reese in his comments this weekend).
Last year the #2 pick signed a deal for 5/$62M with $33M guaranteed. Seymour at 31 would have signed that extension in a heartbeat. The Patriots can't afford to have that much (20% or more of a cap) tied up on their front 3 before you even contemplate extending their HOF QB (another 12%) and pro bowl LG (whose extension will run 6%).
Do you understand that trading up in the second or beyond is a matter of multiples of single and double digits that can be accommodated with day 3 picks. Trading up in the first is a matter of double or triple digits and if you're trading up from the bottom third to the top tier you're talking triple and even quadruple digits that can only be accommodated by trading away multiple day one or two picks. You not only pay more for that priviledge, you lose the potential services or future trade value of one additional highly graded player for 4-5+ seasons.
We have already committed to Vince this season ($20M guaranteed) and Bodden )$10M guaranteed) and we have yet to deal with Brady and Mankins. Whether there is a CBA or not there will be a rookie contract cap in effect in 2011 because that is what the owners will opt for and absent a new CBA they won't agree to without it they will get to make the operational rules without NFLPA input as if they were a non union entity. Next season the #1-10 draft picks will likely see less than half the guaranteed or non salary money they can presently expect to see in their rookie deal. And if the tradeoff (if their is one bargained) is for a shorter term or committment, it will be even less than that... In a shallow 2011 draft we are perfectly positioned with 2 firsts and a second. I wouldn't trade them for anything at this juncture because they will potentially be the only truly useful/potential impact picks in that draft. Next year everyone will be looking to draft up, and likely finding it as difficult a sell as drafting down this year.
Very well detailed and explained Cousin. You took a lot of time and I appreciate it. I do understand the financial aspect and pitfalls. My trade down suggestion was rhetorical and by no means a sure thing. It was a thought to discuss and contemplate.
I am very impressed by your explanation. I think the key was you added that the 2011 Draft was weak and
"You would not trade them for anything in this juncture and people will be looking to trade up" Hence some of my thought process on Suh. He is not my "binkie" the cutesy word we use here by some. My theory is for the long haul. Hopefully we will never be in a position of desperation like the Rams or Lions but if we break down the selection of a player like Suh and understand that we have to overpay to get him...now.
Mo, I am sure there are financial considerations of the #22 pick, the #53 pick and the Brace contract (I don't hate him. I see him as a better 4-3 fit and was a VW precaution and Pryor worked out decent). I have tried to see if Miguel was reading this to see what the exact numbers could be on our side. We all understand that to move up to a top five choice by using the outdated Draft Chart is absurd. It comes down to do it as if the Lions want two high value picks and a second round Draft choice player one year removed who fills a need for them, to give up the #2 pick. Yes, we could get lucky and get a great pick for a DE later, but if you see a kid like Ordick who some on this Forum want, who got toyed with by a mediocre LSU O Line and singled up, it makes you wonder how to go at this stage. If he is rated first round we better consider Suh or Trade for a player.
I had an idea of giving up a lower pick for Adam Carriker who had a decent rookie year but had to add 20lbs to play DT for the Rams and he was a different player than he was in college and got hurt for his efforts. He is now healthy. Go back to his real playing weight and play a Tech 5 DE in a 3-4 where some other Teams that have interest (at least two others) would have him play. I would take him over Ordick and Wooten in a minute but all I got was something about sucking lemons and questioning my gender preference.
So do we take Ordick who will get punked in the NFL or get creative and see if there is anyway to get Suh? I would rather NFL experienced Carriker for a DE so not to take that financial slope of Suh, but nothing on the horizon next year looks promising as you have suggested. Suh was actually a two year idea without moving our two #1 picks in 2011.
Yep a new CAP could be trouble in this idea but it could work better as well. Tough to say.....you agree?
My perfect scenario would be throw #22 at the Vikings for DE/OLD 25 year old Ray Edwards and call it a day.He is better by far that any pick on the Board at #22 and beyond. More money? Yes, but you are paying for an upper tier player who is young and experienced. It is a no brainer then this Suh topic is not alive. I say see ya #22 for Edwards and a player and perhaps a forth for Carriker. Get Gregg Olsen and fill in the rest of the roster with decent picks and you are now a pretty reasonable Team going into 2010. We can't count on 12 picks all making this Team in 2010. So if we can't get Blue Chip guys like Suh our expectations are questionable. Lets get a few pieces of talent.
DW Toys
