Sub vs. base -- who plays when?

[mayoclinic]

Health will play a big role in the final roster breakdown. The number crunch is going to be brutal no matter how exactly it works out, and injuries will definitely open some doors. I expect some guys to be put on PUP or IR.

I think keeping more than 6 "pure" DLs starts to create a crunch. The same with keeping more than 9 DBs. I think that you can easily justify 10 in today's NFL, but assuming 25 roster spots on defense that really cuts in to the front 7. I think that versatility will play a huge role in who stays and who goes.

My best "show in the dark" right now:

DL: Wilfork, Love, Fanene, Pryor, Deaderick, Warren.
DE/OLB: Jones, Ninkovich, Scott, Bequette, Markell Carter. Cunningham gets cut or traded.
LB: Mayo, Hightower, Spikes, Fletcher, Carpenter, Tarpinian. White's hernia surgery could slow him down coming into training camp and create an opening for Tarpinian.

That's 17. The final cut would probably come down to Warren, Carter/Scott and Carpenter/Fletcher in that breakdown. But it's just a straw horse.

Keeping more than 25 on defense would create a huge squeeze on offense, which is already in a similar position to defense: 9 OL are likely though 10 could be possibly, but even with 9 that leaves on 16 "skill spots". With 3 TEs almost certain that leaves only 13 spots for QB (2-3), RB (4-5) and WR (6-7), so there will be similarly intense competition.

It will be brutal no matter how you figure the numbers. And that seems to be part of BB's plan: maximize depth to account for injury and attrition, and maximize competition to battle harden the survivors.

I agree with your analysis and breakdowns. Specifically, I agree with you note that we may choose to lose both Cunningham and Markell Carter in order to keep another LB or STer. As of now, it seems right to keep Fletcher, Carpenter and White.

BTW, Andy's list included Pryor. I agree that 6-7 of Andy's DL's should make the team. The question mark for me is Pryor's health, not his ability. If all are helthy, I agree with you that Brace is #7 and could lose his roster spot if we keep only six DL's.
---------------------------
LDE Deaderick, Brace
NT/DT Wilfork, Warren
RDE/DT Fanene, Love

Fit Pryor in there wherever you want,and unless someone surprises and takes one of their job all or all but 1 of the 7 are making the team.

 

[Avenger]

Keep in mind that a ST linebacker could lose his spot to Larsen, as Larsen can play emergency LB also.

 

[Fencer]

There's probably the most room for disagreement with respect to the first-round rookies. The reasons for my particular opinions include:

First-year pass rushers seem to be able to do pretty well. It's other aspects of playing defense that come more slowly -- i.e. ones that require strength or recognition rather than quickness and speed. Thus, I think Jones could become a fixture in a pass rushing role quite quickly.

The scouting reports that said Hightower did well on third-down pass coverage, or that he was good across the board, seemed more persuasive to me than the others that said he struggled in coverage. So I'm guessing he'll be able to hold his own at sub-package LB pretty quickly.

 

[supafly]

Health will play a big role in the final roster breakdown. The number crunch is going to be brutal no matter how exactly it works out, and injuries will definitely open some doors. I expect some guys to be put on PUP or IR.

I think keeping more than 6 "pure" DLs starts to create a crunch. The same with keeping more than 9 DBs. I think that you can easily justify 10 in today's NFL, but assuming 25 roster spots on defense that really cuts in to the front 7. I think that versatility will play a huge role in who stays and who goes.

My best "show in the dark" right now:

DL: Wilfork, Love, Fanene, Pryor, Deaderick, Warren.
DE/OLB: Jones, Ninkovich, Scott, Bequette, Markell Carter. Cunningham gets cut or traded.
LB: Mayo, Hightower, Spikes, Fletcher, Carpenter, Tarpinian. White's hernia surgery could slow him down coming into training camp and create an opening for Tarpinian.

That's 17. The final cut would probably come down to Warren, Carter/Scott and Carpenter/Fletcher in that breakdown. But it's just a straw horse.

Keeping more than 25 on defense would create a huge squeeze on offense, which is already in a similar position to defense: 9 OL are likely though 10 could be possibly, but even with 9 that leaves on 16 "skill spots". With 3 TEs almost certain that leaves only 13 spots for QB (2-3), RB (4-5) and WR (6-7), so there will be similarly intense competition.

It will be brutal no matter how you figure the numbers. And that seems to be part of BB's plan: maximize depth to account for injury and attrition, and maximize competition to battle harden the survivors.

I certainly agree in regards to the injuries and how that will affect the 53 man roster. We will likely spend the summer going back and forth in many threads with all of our predictions, but the injury toll will likely make some of those choices moot. Let's hope that there aren't too many 'vital' players that get hit this year, so that we can finally maximize the potential here.

I keep looking at the possibilities for only keeping 9 in the secondary, which may be a possibility IF they are 9 players who can have the versatility that is needed for the majority to play both CB/S in case of injury, scheme, or poor performance. However, I just have a hard time seeing it, no matter how you crunch the numbers.

In trying to keep it simple, here is a list of our potential secondary members. Keeping only 9 will be a tough chore indeed; then again, keeping 'only' 15 front seven players will not be easy either.

SECONDARY: (potential keepers, ranked in order of what I believe their shot is at making the 53 man roster, although obviously some are interchangable)

1.McCourty
2.Chung
3.Arrington
4.Dowling
5.Gregory
6.Wilson
7.Moore
8.Dennard
9.Barrett
10.Ebner
11.W.Allen
12.Brown
13.M.Cole
14.M.Williams

It would seem as though the first 9 would be pretty safe in my opinion, which would leave us with:

4 CB (McCourty, Dowling, Arrington, Dennard)

4 S (Chung, Wilson, Gregory, Barrett)

and 1 player who can act as a backup role player in BOTH (S.Moore)

The following players ranked 10-14 would not make it in your 9 secondary scenario, while player #10 would make it in mine:

10.Ebner to PS
11.Will Allen camp fodder
12.S.Brown nice knowing ya
13.M.Cole not a chance in hell
14.M.Williams to PS

It could be argued that maybe a guy like Dennard isn't as much of a lock as most of us (including myself) think. After all, he was a 7th rd pick, and there is some serious competition. However, I don't think that's the case, and I think that he has a pretty high upside.

It could also be argued that a guy like Moore isn't going to make it, however again...I just don't see that scenario either. I think he has earned the right to see more live game reps as a role player/backup. After all, he led the secondary in passes defended in the playoffs last year, offers versatility to play both positions, and had 10 PD/2 INT/1 TD in only 6 games played. I think cutting him would be a bad idea at this juncture. Now if he doesn't show enough after this season, then that's another story, but at this point I think there would be plenty of teams that would add him in their back line of defense, at least as a backup.

----------------(in typical mgteich fashion)----------------

No matter how you look at it, it would seem that only keeping 9 is going to be a tough call...unless it's something similar to the 9 player scenario that I have listed above.

One can also substitute Barrett for Ebner, if they choose as the 9th player making it, thus making the other the #10 and odd man out. I just felt there may be a better shot at keeping Barrett over Ebner, due to Ebner likely being able to make the PS.

 

[supafly]

Now keeping with the secondary, another possible way to try and break it down would be the following way of splitting them into various categories:

PRO BOWLERS/LEAGUE LEADERS/LOCKS

1.McCourty
2.Chung
3.Arrington

HIGH DRAFT PICKS and HIGH UPSIDE GUYS = THE FUTURE (2nd rd draft picks who are 'basically' rookies, since we haven't seen enough of them + Dennard, who was projected very high)

1.Dowling
2.Wilson
3.Dennard

GOOD VALUE/OVERACHIEVING/VERSATILE/+ OFF-SEASON ACQUISITION

1.Gregory
2.Moore

There's 8 right there.

Those 8 to me (although some would argue RE:Moore) are pretty much locks.


That leaves the following 6 players to battle out the last spot (9) or two (10):

1.Ebner (good ST presence, although he can likely make the PS)
2.Will Allen (good vet presence, can possibly play both positions)
3.Barrett (a Belichick fave, offers a true safety role + good ST presence)
4.S.Brown (ST presence, and a backup S role)
5.M.Cole (ST presence, and backup CB)
6.M.Williams (ST presence, and backup CB)

To be honest, I would knock off the final 3 guys just due to the fact that they have increased the talent in their positions since last yr + the fact that they can really only play one positon. On top of that someone else can play their ST role.

 

[Fencer]

A note on Dennard: He has tremendous upside, yet he was picked in the 7th round. So either the league's talent evaluators are universally foolish, or else there's a high chance he will wind up, for whatever mix of reasons, being cut.

 

[supafly]

Health will play a big role in the final roster breakdown. The number crunch is going to be brutal no matter how exactly it works out, and injuries will definitely open some doors. I expect some guys to be put on PUP or IR.

I think keeping more than 6 "pure" DLs starts to create a crunch. The same with keeping more than 9 DBs. I think that you can easily justify 10 in today's NFL, but assuming 25 roster spots on defense that really cuts in to the front 7. I think that versatility will play a huge role in who stays and who goes.

My best "show in the dark" right now:

DL: Wilfork, Love, Fanene, Pryor, Deaderick, Warren.
DE/OLB: Jones, Ninkovich, Scott, Bequette, Markell Carter. Cunningham gets cut or traded.
LB: Mayo, Hightower, Spikes, Fletcher, Carpenter, Tarpinian. White's hernia surgery could slow him down coming into training camp and create an opening for Tarpinian.

That's 17. The final cut would probably come down to Warren, Carter/Scott and Carpenter/Fletcher in that breakdown. But it's just a straw horse.

Keeping more than 25 on defense would create a huge squeeze on offense, which is already in a similar position to defense: 9 OL are likely though 10 could be possibly, but even with 9 that leaves on 16 "skill spots". With 3 TEs almost certain that leaves only 13 spots for QB (2-3), RB (4-5) and WR (6-7), so there will be similarly intense competition.

It will be brutal no matter how you figure the numbers. And that seems to be part of BB's plan: maximize depth to account for injury and attrition, and maximize competition to battle harden the survivors.

In the same vein, attempting to predict the front seven is not so easy either.

Attempting to break down the "top 15 or 16" is no easy task, but this would be my personal opinion. Since depth, specific position and need etc is not exactly comparable to secondary positions, I won't try to embarrass myself by attempting any order besides top 15/16.

FRONT SEVEN (in no real order):

1.Wilfork
2.Deaderick
3.Love
4.Fanane
5.Pryor
6.Bequette
7.Warren
8.Mayo
9.Spikes
10.Ninkovich
11.Hightower
12.Jones
13.Scott
14.Fletcher

15.Competition between the following (OLB):

a. M.Carter
b. Cunningham

16.Competition between the following (only one coverage guy/backup ILB):

a.Tarpinian
b.Carpenter

Potential player #17.....Outside looking in (in my opinion):

a.T.White--due to injury + ILB is pretty well covered, as is their ST role
b.A.Carter--I believe we have moved on via the draft + injury
c.Probability of injury and additional camp cut in August or sooner

-------------------------

So really, we will need 16 no matter what, as one of (M.Carter/Cunningham) will need to offer the OLB role, and one of (Tarpinian/Carpenter) will need to offer the typical backup ILB/role playing 'good coverage' guy.

So the decision will need to be made between keeping the #10 DB or possibly only keeping 24 players on offense, which will likely be even tougher.

 

[supafly]

A note on Dennard: He has tremendous upside, yet he was picked in the 7th round. So either the league's talent evaluators are universally foolish, or else there's a high chance he will wind up, for whatever mix of reasons, being cut.

I'll be damned if I can figure out which one, Fencer.

I hear what you're saying, and you very well may be right.

It's hard to try and look purely at talent when there is (what the media perceives as a major event) a law breaking situation only days prior to the draft.

I personally feel as though he'll be here as a potential CB of the future, but when someone is picked in the 7th round, it's hard to try and figure where they may lie in the bigger scheme of things.

The same can be said with Ebner. He's a 6th rd pick, I'm not sure why so many are already penciling him in as making the 53 man roster as of yet either. Especially since (outside of popular N.England opinion) no one will likely be plundering our practice squad for a former rugby player who is basically a no-name when it comes to playing football. I am a huge OSU fan, and was not fully aware of his draft potential. I have also heard the same from other OSU fans, although Ninja will probably have had a better eye on him than I did.

Either way, guys like Dennard and Ebner are certainly not locks, but they will have a decent chance to prove themselves in the same token.

 

[mayoclinic]

This is a brilliant breakdown. Great work. I agree with just about everything - and yet my "gut" tells me that it will end up being way off.

The DB situation never seems to work out the way we project it, even more than most positions. In 2009 Leigh Bodden performed brilliantly and Darius Butler showed nice flashes of developing. We drafted Devin McCourty, who looked like he would be the nickel back and STer. Kyle Arrington was a STer and dime player. Brandon Meriweather had a great year in 2009 and looked ready to make the next leap. Pat Chung was developing nicely, and James Sandes was a reliable vet, and Brandon McGowan exceeded expectations. Going into 2010 things seemed pretty stable. But Bodden and McGowan ended up on IR, Butler and Meriweather regressed, and McCourty dramatically exceeded expectations.

Going into 2011 we were hoping to reunite the Bodden of 2009 with the McCourty of 2010 hopefully salvage Butler, and add Dowling. Kyle Arrington ended up being our best CB. Meriweather and Sanders were both cut, and the safety position was a patchwork all year.

I don't know what will happen this year, but I'm sure there will be some unexpected blips. Dennard cut in TC? A vet traded? Injuries? IDK, but I doubt it will work out as smoothly as you project.

I certainly agree in regards to the injuries and how that will affect the 53 man roster. We will likely spend the summer going back and forth in many threads with all of our predictions, but the injury toll will likely make some of those choices moot. Let's hope that there aren't too many 'vital' players that get hit this year, so that we can finally maximize the potential here.

I keep looking at the possibilities for only keeping 9 in the secondary, which may be a possibility IF they are 9 players who can have the versatility that is needed for the majority to play both CB/S in case of injury, scheme, or poor performance. However, I just have a hard time seeing it, no matter how you crunch the numbers.

In trying to keep it simple, here is a list of our potential secondary members. Keeping only 9 will be a tough chore indeed; then again, keeping 'only' 15 front seven players will not be easy either.

SECONDARY: (potential keepers, ranked in order of what I believe their shot is at making the 53 man roster, although obviously some are interchangable)

1.McCourty
2.Chung
3.Arrington
4.Dowling
5.Gregory
6.Wilson
7.Moore
8.Dennard
9.Barrett
10.Ebner
11.W.Allen
12.Brown
13.M.Cole
14.M.Williams

It would seem as though the first 9 would be pretty safe in my opinion, which would leave us with:

4 CB (McCourty, Dowling, Arrington, Dennard)

4 S (Chung, Wilson, Gregory, Barrett)

and 1 player who can act as a backup role player in BOTH (S.Moore)

The following players ranked 10-14 would not make it in your 9 secondary scenario, while player #10 would make it in mine:

10.Ebner to PS
11.Will Allen camp fodder
12.S.Brown nice knowing ya
13.M.Cole not a chance in hell
14.M.Williams to PS

It could be argued that maybe a guy like Dennard isn't as much of a lock as most of us (including myself) think. After all, he was a 7th rd pick, and there is some serious competition. However, I don't think that's the case, and I think that he has a pretty high upside.

It could also be argued that a guy like Moore isn't going to make it, however again...I just don't see that scenario either. I think he has earned the right to see more live game reps as a role player/backup. After all, he led the secondary in passes defended in the playoffs last year, offers versatility to play both positions, and had 10 PD/2 INT/1 TD in only 6 games played. I think cutting him would be a bad idea at this juncture. Now if he doesn't show enough after this season, then that's another story, but at this point I think there would be plenty of teams that would add him in their back line of defense, at least as a backup.

----------------(in typical mgteich fashion)----------------

No matter how you look at it, it would seem that only keeping 9 is going to be a tough call...unless it's something similar to the 9 player scenario that I have listed above.

One can also substitute Barrett for Ebner, if they choose as the 9th player making it, thus making the other the #10 and odd man out. I just felt there may be a better shot at keeping Barrett over Ebner, due to Ebner likely being able to make the PS.

 

[mgteich]

If these are my choices for #10, I think that 9 is plenty. I would note that Cole (or Brown) might win a ST position (with one fewer LB STer).

.

The following players ranked 10-14 would not make it in your 9 secondary scenario, while player #10 would make it in mine:

10.Ebner to PS
11.Will Allen camp fodder
12.S.Brown nice knowing ya
13.M.Cole not a chance in hell
14.M.Williams to PS

 

[Deus Irae]

The Patriots had Allen in last year, before he settled on Miami. This year, they've signed him. Now, it's certainly possible that he'll get cut, but I think that giving him short shrift as an option for the roster is a mistake.

 

[Ring 6]

How many "pure" DL's do you see us keeping. In the listing below, you have us keeping 6-7. If this is accurate, do we have any DL competition at all? Do we have any other options in case of injury?

I am fine with this list of 6-7. However, I see Belichick picking up a player or two before camp for competition, as camp fodder (to take camp reps) and for insurance against injuries.

That is, in fact, the issue. We have no depth, or competition, and frankly not great starting talent either. This is the biggest overall weakness on the team IMO.

 

[Ring 6]

I don't think you can leave Pryor out of the mix. He was having a major impact last year before going on IR.

He played in one game and was hurt in the 2nd, without a tackle or assist. What major impact?

 

[Sciz]

He played in one game and was hurt in the 2nd, without a tackle or assist. What major impact?

In that one game:
.5 sacks
3 QB Hits
1 tackle for no gain

All in 28 snaps

 

[Ring 6]

In that one game:
.5 sacks
3 QB Hits
1 tackle for no gain

All in 28 snaps

Sadly that is pretty much his career. BTW I'm not impressed with QB hits after the QB who threw for over 400 yards got rid of the ball.
Half a sack and a tackle aren't exactly my idea of dominanting 28 plays.

 

[Ring 6]

In that one game:
.5 sacks
3 QB Hits
1 tackle for no gain

All in 28 snaps

By the way, where did you get those stats from?

 

[Sciz]

By the way, where did you get those stats from?

Stats from the NFL.com play by play, snaps from Reiss' blog.

 

[mayoclinic]

He played in one game and was hurt in the 2nd, without a tackle or assist. What major impact?

In that one game:
.5 sacks
3 QB Hits
1 tackle for no gain

All in 28 snaps

Andy, I don't have access to tape of the Miami game, but my recollection is that Pryor, Haynesworth and Wilfork were dominant in that game. Probably in that order. I'm not a big fan of ESPN statistics and ProFootballFocus, but they graded out Pryor very highly after that game, FWIW. Chris Forsberg noted:

In an offseason that saw the Patriots beef up their defensive line with a number of big-name additions like Albert Haynesworth, Shaun Ellis, Andre Carter, and Mark Anderson, it might have been third-year defensive tackle Myron Pryor who made the biggest splash in Monday's season-opening triumph in Miami.

Pryor played less than 40 percent of the team's total snaps, but got credited with a team-high three quarterback hits, a half sack, and two tackles. But that doesn't quite sum up his impact. According to analytical site Pro Football Focus, which grades players based on overall performance, Pryor graded out as +4.2, which wasn't just tops on the Patriots, it was the second best grade among all defensive tackles in Week 1 (second only to Cleveland's Phil Taylor, but ahead of Baltimore's Haloti Ngata at +3.9, Oakland's Richard Seymour at +3.7, and Haynesworth at +3.5).

Pryor's efforts helped the Patriots -- often scolded for an anemic pass rush a season ago -- grade out as the top pass rushing defense in Week 1 with PFF assigning a +12 rating (only two other teams were +10 or better). By comparison, the Patriots graded out at -0.1 last season, seventh worst in the league.

Pryor making the most of his snaps - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

The Pats held Miami to 2/14 on 3rd down in that game, and as I recall Pryor's internal pressure had something to do with that. He was consistent generating interior pressure that rushed Henne, even though that doesn't show up on the stat sheet.

ProFootballFocus noted:

Going into the game you’d be forgiven for wondering if Albert Haynesworth (+3.5) could be the man to turn the Patriots defense into something special. On this showing he may certainly help, but there was a more eye catching display from another member of the rotation. Just how good could Myron Pryor (+4.2) be? With a lightening quick first step he was too hot to handle for all members of the Dolphins interior, none more so than Vernon Carey. He ended the day with a sack, two hits and three further pressures (compared to a still impressive hit and three pressures from Haynesworth).

Re-Focused - Patriots @ Dolphins, Week 1 | ProFootballFocus.com

That wasn't "garbage time" pressure after the game was already decided. I'll stand by my "major impact" comment. Pryor was an impact player in the Maimi game. We didn't get to see whether that game was a flash in the pan or whether Pryor was going to become a consistent weapon on a regualr basis. I'll be curious to see where he picks up going into training camp.

 

[Spiral]

Bequette, if healthy, is a lock: BB has never cut a player taken in the first four rounds during the player's first season in Foxboro.

Yeah, but he could be redsh..., I mean he could wind up on IR for a year.

 

[supafly]

The Patriots had Allen in last year, before he settled on Miami. This year, they've signed him. Now, it's certainly possible that he'll get cut, but I think that giving him short shrift as an option for the roster is a mistake.

I think that is a fair statement.

It will all depend on how many CB's are kept, and if Belichick feels that W.Allen can possibly contribute at safety in a pinch (which I would assume that many CB's could viably do if asked, obviously on different levels).

Most importantly, as mayoclinic pointed out, injuries will come into the mix too.

At this current juncture of time, he may be close to where I had him ranked, giving or taking a spot or two, depending on personal opinion. When the dog days of summer come in TC, he may very well be higher or even lower.