Sub is the New Base: An Update

[manxman2601]

Walker was a stopgap, so I don't put too much stock in that.

My point was that he was a stop gap brought in to cover for Siliga which demonstrates that having two NT types does seem important to BB.

 

[Joker]

Is Baltimore thin at DT?

 

[makoute]

Is Baltimore thin at DT?

Well they lost Ngata to suspension for about 5 games, so probably needs the depth at the moment.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I was just going through this myself after hearing a comment along the lines of, "the last 8 teams to play the Seahawks lost the next week." It's certainly an impressive stat, but loses some luster when you actually go through it. Starting from the top....

St Louis
Carolina
Oakland
New York Giants

Ummmmm.... haven't these teams lost the following week after every game?

Kansas City
Arizona

These are the best two examples, since KC lost to Oakland and 'Zona gave Atlanta their only out-of-division win of the season.

At the same time, KC had been treading water for a month at that point and some of us even predicted Oakland would give them a harder time than expected. And all bets are off with Arizona's QB situation.

San Francisco
Philly

San Fran is a mess and any residual shine has come off the Sanchize.

8 games is a lot, but I'm still not sure how Seattle will do when facing a legitimate offense.

Yea. Just looking at the game logs, even though the games took place earlier in the year, Rivers, Romo and Peyton all had pretty good games vs that defense. In his game on Opening Night, Rogers only saw the field for 24min and did not play well. Up to the end of the 3rd qtr, Eli was playing well but threw a pick in 17-17 game and that was curtains for the NYG.

I'd like to think that if given the proper protection, TB & the Pats have the weapons to make plays vs that defense.

 

[Ring 6]

It's worth noting that Seattle's defensive revival has coincided with the emergence of 2nd year CB Harold Simon as a "mini-Sherman". I badly wanted Simon in 2013 (6'3" 204#, went in the 5th round). He spent last year on IR but has emerged big time this year, and allowed Byron Maxwell to move to the slot. With Sherman AND Simon, Pete Caroll is free to be more creative. It makes such a difference having 2 guys with that kind of ability. That's part of the reason (1) that I would not consider cutting Browner, as some have proposed; I'd probably try and extend him a year and lower his cap number; and (2) I'd be looking at developmental CBs who could have an impact 2 years or so down the road. The kid from the CFL (Breaux) comes to mind. So does 6'3" 190# Michigan St. WR Tony Lippett as a conversion project (he's started several games at CB).

I can't believe anyone would consider cutting Browner. He has been one of the MVPs on defense this year.

 

[mayoclinic]

I can't believe anyone would consider cutting Browner. He has been one of the MVPs on defense this year.

I agree completely, but it's been proposed more than once. I think Browner is one of the key ingredients that makes the defense work, for 2 reasons: (1) he brings the physicality and attitude; and (2) having Revis and Browner creates much more opportunities than simply having one of them.

 

[mayoclinic]

A nice read from Tom Curran (of all people) on the evolution of the "sub is the base" defense, with some good quotes from BB:

Since Bill Belichick’s been in control of the Patriots, their defense has gone from a 3-4 front to a 4-3 front to now being a defense that’s not distinguished by its front at all, really, but by the number and deployment of defensive backs on the field.

Belichick went into detail Wednesday about roster-building and weighing factors like supply and demand and offensive trends when putting together a defense. With running quarterbacks, spread offenses and receiver-friendly rules, has the back end of the defense become the focal point?

“I think that’s part of building your team is trying to anticipate where your team is going and – especially defensively – (where the league is going),” he explained. “How do you construct a defense to handle the different challenges that you have? If you look at the numbers statistically and the amount of five defensive backs that are on the field, you’ll see the numbers shift dramatically, especially this year. You can see a trend but there’s a spike. There’s very few teams – maybe four or five – that are under 50 percent nickel.

“So when you talk about, ‘What defensive system do you run?’ virtually every defense you play in the league is in nickel, five defensive backs. Five defensive backs, whatever version it is. There are five DBs, put it that way. Whatever the rest of it is, you can look at that separately. That’s certainly not the way it was 10 years ago. I’d say we were in the 30s, 30 percent, high-30s. Now that number is doubled. We’re almost, I think we’re in the 70 … to 75 percent range of nickel defense this year. Now you know, we’ve been ahead some, but we’ve also played a lot of multiple receiver teams.”

In essence, the discussion of whether a team is 4-3 or 3-4 is outdated. There are – especially with the Patriots – only two linebackers on the field for the vast majority of their defensive snaps. What kind of front do the Patriots use?

Generally, the Patriots have two defensive tackles and two standup defensive ends, two linebackers and five defensive backs. Other times, they will go with three down linemen but those could be a defensive tackle and two guys who came into the league as either outside linebackers or defensive ends – edge guys – but are playing down.

http://www.csnne.com/blog/patriots-talk/patriots-defensive-evolution-constant

It's a 2-4-5 / 4-2-5 hybrid with lots of moving parts at all 3 levels of the defense:

Kevin Duffy at MassLive.com did a nice job taking one player – Chandler Jones – and showing how many different looks the Patriots give with him.

Jones isn’t the only player who can be tinkered with, though. Rob Ninkovich, Akeem Ayers and, to a small degree, Vince Wilfork, can play at the line of scrimmage or in the short-coverage area. Meanwhile, Tavon Wilson and Patrick Chung are safeties who can play at the linebacker level. And the linebackers – like Collins – can play at any level of the defense.

What this does to opposing offenses is not just identify alignments but identify identities. Breaking the huddle, the offense needs to determine if Chandler Jones is down in a three-point stance as a defensive tackle? He could drop in coverage. But Wilfork is on the field with Sealver Siliga, two DTs. So where’s Jones? Is he outside? Or is that Ayers? They play the same spot but play it differently. So how does the blocking scheme get communicated to the front? And is Donta Hightower rushing or in shallow coverage? Is Collins split out to cover? Is he on a tight end or a wideout? Where’s the weakness. Where’s Darrelle Revis?

There's also more good stuff from BB on supply vs. demand and availability of certain player types.

 

[SalemPats]

From Reiss' Quick Hits today:



http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-...151/quick-hit-thoughts-around-nfl-patriots-37

Nothing new, except for how high the percentages have climbed. With almost 75% of the snaps out of sub, "base" really is becoming less and less important. Andy Johnson has already speculated that a major goal on defense is being able to stop the run out of the "sub". It's something to think about in terms of draft and FA players who might fit, and contract priorities.

Agreed, but that is dependent on us re-signing Revis and McCourty. Good post