Study of Draft Prospects with Stats

[Mark Morse]

Kiwinuka did play hurt and was the victim of a vicious illegal chop blocjk by Virginia's Brad Butler than greatly impacted Kiwi's senior season. The much anticipated battle between D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Kiwi didn't materialize since Ferguson was hurt. Butler dominated Kiwi's even before that illegal block.

Pro Football Weekly is exactly correct, Kiwi did pad his stats against inferior competition from the Big East (Navy Pitt Temple Army Connecticut) and outside opponents. The questions about Kiwi were answered at the Senior Bowl workouts where he was finally matched up against Ferguson. Kiwi was embarassed in those drills.

There are three kinds of lies; lies, damned lies and statistics - Disraeli

 

[PonyExpress]

Morse,
Kiwanuka was playing injured before the cheap shot by Butler. if you watch the play you can see his knee was in a brace and he could barely support his weight on it, before Butler dove at it. http://media.putfile.com/CheapShotUVa_Kiwi25
Kiwanuka was injured in the first game of the year against BYU, but kept playing because he was a good teammate. He still produced at an elite level. As far as racking up stats against weak competition, what do you call North Carolina State and Maryland, at the end of the year, when he was healthier? If you look at Mario Williams' 2005 season you will that 9.5 of his 14.5 sacks came against Middle Tennessee St, South Florida, Wake Forest and Southern Mississippi. It's interesting that while you dismiss the "statistics" as "lies", in fact the whole basis for your argument was a mirepresentation.

 

[Carny]

My question is, where are you getting these values for PBU vs Interception and TFL vs TL? Have you tested how well they would have predicted the production of previously drafted players?

Great players have come from a lot of different statistical productions and so have bad ones. Richard Seymour was great for three years at Georgia but Kris Jenkins only lived up to his potential his senior year and he turned out fine.

Kevin Williams of Minnesota wasn't all that great statistically until his senior year as well but he's turned out fine.

Al Wilson didn't put up great numbers at all at Tennesee but he's been a fine player in Denver's defensive system:

DEFENSIVE STATISTICS

STATS GP/GS TK SO AS FR FC INT TFL PBU SACK
1995 12/ 0 25 17 8 0 0 1-0 2- 4 1 1.0- 7
1996 11/11 87 61 26 0 2 0-0 8-30 3 1.0-10
1997 11/11 83 56 27 0 1 0-0 7-23 3 5.0-11
1998 9/ 9 77 54 23 2 5 0-0 6- 7 3 4.0-41

TOTAL 43/31 272 188 84 2 8 1-0 23-64 10 11.0-69


Meanwhile, Napolean Harris put up far better numbers than Wilson did but he's been a pretty good bust so far (sorry for not putting up the stats, it gets tedious).

Chris Mcalister was pretty consistent with interceptions for three years, getting 6/4/5 but his pbu went 5/5/15.

And for some reason, Wisconsin defensive players, DTs and CBs have put up great numbers but have done little in the NFL.

I think stats are great when there are also good scouting reports attached. If for linebackers/DEs they say they have good instincts, hand usage, shedding ability, change of direction or for DBs they say they have good footwork (do not take false steps in transition) and instincts in the zone and etc. But they shouldn't be used, I don't think, by themselves to rank players.

 

[PonyExpress]

Stats can't predict great players. But they are helpful in ruling some out and identifying others for closer scrutiny.

 

[maverick4]

re

PonyExpress, nice great awesome job.

To answer Carny's question, college statistics don't guarantee NFL success, but great NFL players do show their potential through statistics in college.