Strengths and Weaknesses of our main AFC foes

[JoeSixPat]

Regarding our AFC East opponents, I always take them seriously... the AFC East was one of the best conferences in football last season, top to bottom.

Every year one or more team surprises or overachieves - yes its overachieving but it also seems to happen every year. Last year entering December Miami still had a chance at the playoffs. Buffalo had a chance to go to the playoffs in the last 2 weeks.

I have no lack of confidence about how the Pats will do against them - but other teams should watch out.

Indy and Denver are consistent contenders no matter what the player turnover is. Even with losing AD one might not notice a drop off in the Baltimore D. Cincy never really seems to scare me - same with Jacksonville.

That leaves San Diego with a big chip on their shoulders after having a near perfect regular season and getting bounced in the playoffs.

SD fans want to delude themselves that replacing an ENTIRE staff isn't going to make a whit of difference. They are wrong.

We basically said the same thing about losing Crennel and Weis - while KEEPING our head coach. Losing our OC and DC most definately DID have an adverse impact, most fans would now admit, though it is difficult to say how many games were lost as a result.

And that of course is with the consistency of the SAME head coach and the SAME offensive and defensive systems - no matter what SD fans say about Turner "implementing" the sytem 7 years ago it is NOT going to be a seamless transition.

 

[DaBruinz]

I agree about Buffalo, but please, continue to disrespect the Dolphins. Not matter the records, it's always a tough game and Miami gets at least 1 every year from the Pats.

Its not ALWAYS a tough game and Miami doesn't ALWAYS get 1 game a year.

Miami still doesn't have a QB. Their O-line is suspect. And so is their secondary.

 

[Patriotic Fervor]

A few thoughts:

Cinci's offense isn't on par with NE and Indy. Unless they had LDT no running back makes up the difference between Manning/Brady and everyone else. Palmer may be the best of the rest, but he isn't Brady or Manning.

Miami and Buffalo, while in the division and a threat to win a game, are not a threat for the conference.

Baltimore and Jax aren't real contenders with their QBs. Great defenses can only slow down top offenses like NE, SD, and Indy. You need to be able to outscore them, which Baltimore and Jax cannot. Even if they are fortunate enough to beat one of them they'll have to beat another. Not happening.

The Jets aren't real contenders yet. They're taking a step back this year, unless you think they didn't overachieve last year.

Dre Bly is overrated. I hope NE doesn't have to face Denver. Blah blah blah.

Actually, the Bly thing in Denver will pose problems they may not be aware of.

Bly, of course, got his Pro Bowl credentials in Detroit playing for a, uhhh, suspect defense, shall we say? In that defense, he liked to gamble a lot. He'd sometimes make big plays, but just as often, he'd get burned. No one ever said much about it because, "he plays for Detroit!"

Now, we have to ask, will he play the disciplined defense that Shanahan requires of his players? If he does, how does that affect his level of play?

Yes, he has Champ Bailey along side him, which must be a comfort, but since few teams are going to challenge Bailey more than once or twice a game, the onus falls on Bly. Since Bailey will invariably take on the opposing team's #1 receiver, that will leave Bly with a team's #2 (or occasionally, a 3).

The problem for Bly in this situation is a team flooding the zone, or a receiver getting separation from a linebacker coming in underneath. Since many schemes in football are designed to instill a Pavlovian response to a given situation over the course of the game (or at least attempt to), it remains to be seen how Bly handles this in his new surroundings.

Of course, there is always the problem for him of taller receivers with some jumping ability. Bailey can handle those pretty well. We'll see about Bly.

I've always viewed the man as a modest cut above average, but maybe he will thrive in this situation.

Maybe.

Of equal importance (from a defensive point of view) is the Denver pass rush, or what's passed for it in previous years. They drafted to address that problem, but if it's anything like past years', it'll be a long season for the Denver defense in general, and the defensive backfield in particular. The glaring absence of Al Wilson at MLB only exacerbates things.

Personally, I'm not quite in the state of awe over the Broncos as some appear to be. They may have a fair to middling team, or maybe even a pretty good one. Their schedule is certainly easy enough to make one consider that possibility. But realistically, they have no shot at their division.

So for overall degrees of concern (for us), it's SD and Indy, while in the division the Pats must concentrate on the Jets and that game down there in Miami.

I still see 13 - 3, maybe 14 - 2.

 

[zoostation]

What about David Garrard? I just don't think they should've given the job to Leftwich. Let the best QB in camp and preseason earn the job rather than putting an end to it. What does Del Rio do if Leftwich lays an egg while Gray or Garrard dominat the preseason field? Is he stuck with Byron because he gave him his word?

......yawn

 

[Rob0729]

Its not ALWAYS a tough game and Miami doesn't ALWAYS get 1 game a year.

Miami still doesn't have a QB. Their O-line is suspect. And so is their secondary.

Yeah, I don't get where people get this. Brady has a winning record vs. the Dolphins even with that final game of 2005 season where Brady played a quarter and they pulled most of the rest of the starters. By the way, that season we beat Miami in Miami and lost in New England. We swept Miami in the 2003 season.

Miami is usually a tough game for us, but they are more vunerable than most this year.

 

[Jacky Roberts]

we all know Miami always presents a threat to the Patriots.

Yeah, in 1985 they did.

 

[braveht]

The Steelers are better than many on your list per covers.com. They've been there is in their favor; OTOH they are in a tough division.

NFL odds to win 2008 AFC Championship

New England Patriots +160

San Diego Chargers +350

Indianapolis Colts +500

Baltimore Ravens +1100

Pittsburgh Steelers +1100

Denver Broncos +1100

Cincinnati Bengals +1100

Jacksonville Jaguars +1500

New York Jets +1500

Miami Dolphins +3000

Tennessee Titans +3000

Kansas City Chiefs +3000

Cleveland Browns +5000

Buffalo Bills +5000

Houston Texans +5000

Oakland Raiders +5000

 

[Dragda]

Not saying they're both contenders, but I think you should always include your division rivals. Miami and Buffalo are there and we all know Miami always presents a threat to the Patriots.

Division rivals always pose a threat. The historically horrendous Patriots were even known to give AFCE opponents fits. The Bills hated struggling against us in our house when they were strong and we were very weak. You can never underestimate a division game. Maybe the Dolphins for the first game this year as they have new coaching, but after that, these guys will give us their best game plan, best effort, and intensity every time.

 

[He Ban Me]

Actually, the Bly thing in Denver will pose problems they may not be aware of.

Bly, of course, got his Pro Bowl credentials in Detroit playing for a, uhhh, suspect defense, shall we say? In that defense, he liked to gamble a lot. He'd sometimes make big plays, but just as often, he'd get burned. No one ever said much about it because, "he plays for Detroit!"

Now, we have to ask, will he play the disciplined defense that Shanahan requires of his players? If he does, how does that affect his level of play?

Yes, he has Champ Bailey along side him, which must be a comfort, but since few teams are going to challenge Bailey more than once or twice a game, the onus falls on Bly. Since Bailey will invariably take on the opposing team's #1 receiver, that will leave Bly with a team's #2 (or occasionally, a 3).

The problem for Bly in this situation is a team flooding the zone, or a receiver getting separation from a linebacker coming in underneath. Since many schemes in football are designed to instill a Pavlovian response to a given situation over the course of the game (or at least attempt to), it remains to be seen how Bly handles this in his new surroundings.

Of course, there is always the problem for him of taller receivers with some jumping ability. Bailey can handle those pretty well. We'll see about Bly.

I've always viewed the man as a modest cut above average, but maybe he will thrive in this situation.

Maybe.

Of equal importance (from a defensive point of view) is the Denver pass rush, or what's passed for it in previous years. They drafted to address that problem, but if it's anything like past years', it'll be a long season for the Denver defense in general, and the defensive backfield in particular. The glaring absence of Al Wilson at MLB only exacerbates things.

Personally, I'm not quite in the state of awe over the Broncos as some appear to be. They may have a fair to middling team, or maybe even a pretty good one. Their schedule is certainly easy enough to make one consider that possibility. But realistically, they have no shot at their division.

So for overall degrees of concern (for us), it's SD and Indy, while in the division the Pats must concentrate on the Jets and that game down there in Miami.

I still see 13 - 3, maybe 14 - 2.

Manning will pick on Bly just like he did Darrent (R.I.P) Williams last season.

 

[Welker83]

Regarding our AFC East opponents, I always take them seriously... the AFC East was one of the best conferences in football last season, top to bottom.

Every year one or more team surprises or overachieves - yes its overachieving but it also seems to happen every year. Last year entering December Miami still had a chance at the playoffs. Buffalo had a chance to go to the playoffs in the last 2 weeks.

I have no lack of confidence about how the Pats will do against them - but other teams should watch out.

Indy and Denver are consistent contenders no matter what the player turnover is. Even with losing AD one might not notice a drop off in the Baltimore D. Cincy never really seems to scare me - same with Jacksonville.

That leaves San Diego with a big chip on their shoulders after having a near perfect regular season and getting bounced in the playoffs.

SD fans want to delude themselves that replacing an ENTIRE staff isn't going to make a whit of difference. They are wrong.

We basically said the same thing about losing Crennel and Weis - while KEEPING our head coach. Losing our OC and DC most definately DID have an adverse impact, most fans would now admit, though it is difficult to say how many games were lost as a result.

And that of course is with the consistency of the SAME head coach and the SAME offensive and defensive systems - no matter what SD fans say about Turner "implementing" the sytem 7 years ago it is NOT going to be a seamless transition.

They are kinda lucky however that norv turner knows how to run their offense already with a small amount of adjustment. AND they have a VERY talented Defense...with that said however i think they will lose an additional 2 games this year. But i really don't think they will be that much different from last year...

 

[JoeSixPat]

They are kinda lucky however that norv turner knows how to run their offense already with a small amount of adjustment. AND they have a VERY talented Defense...with that said however i think they will lose an additional 2 games this year. But i really don't think they will be that much different from last year...

Two games less is a good guess - but even with the entire coaching staff in tact as well as the team, replicating a 14-2 season would be a VERY tall order.

I'll knock off 2 games for the coaching changes - again, we were adversly affected by losing 2 coordinators and hiring from within and kept our Head Coach - the Chargers lost all coordinators AND their head coach bringing back a guy 7 years removed - none of whom are going to be exceptionally familiar with the personnel.

I'll also knock off 2 games just given the difficulty in replicating 14-2. Losses to NE, Indy, Baltimore, and twice to the Broncos would not be a shock... though in all likelihood they win one or more of those games and lose one or two they should have won elsewhere on the schedule.

So 11-5 would not be a surprise.

Even if it is 2 games, that's enough to lose home field advantage or a bye - forcing THEM to travel across the country for a game followed by another road trip against a playoff rival.

That's HUGE in my book. People can talk about our LBs getting tired - not surprising given all the travel they had in the week leading up to the Indy game.