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Stimulus saved between 1.4 million and 3.4 million jobs

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by Patters, Jun 11, 2010.

  1. Patters

    Patters Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Wait, Did the Stimulus Work? - Economix Blog - NYTimes.com

    ... job cuts began shrinking just as the stimulus was going into effect last year, and the stock market began rising shortly after it passed. The stimulus was by no means the only reason, but it appears to have been a significant one.

    Based on its economic models, the Congressional Budget Office recently estimated that between 1.4 million and 3.4 million workers who have jobs would be unemployed if the stimulus hadn’t been enacted. Three of the best-known private economic research firms — IHS Global Insight, Macroeconomic Advisers and Moody’s Economy.com — have come up with similar estimates. The average estimated effect on employment is about 2.5 million jobs.
  2. TBradyOwnsYou

    TBradyOwnsYou Rookie

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    I'm not drinking this kool aid
  3. khayos

    khayos Rookie

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    Do they similarly show that for less money prior stimulus packages worked faster and more effectively?
  4. BSR

    BSR Rookie

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    No but it does say:

    I'm very dubious of any job creation figures that are based on statistical models of what would have happened if the stimulus program hadn't gone through. Its not the same if they can't count the actual jobs and its also not verifiable. Its like those that argue what a QBs statics would have been if they played with WR X or behind o-line Y. It compares reality to fantasy.
  5. JackBauer

    JackBauer Rookie

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    Yup, I agree. After all, your belief that the stimulus wasn't a success is the only thing that matters, facts be damned.
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2010
  6. TBradyOwnsYou

    TBradyOwnsYou Rookie

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    What facts might those be? Last I checked the only thing they can do is speculate and guess since time travel isn't a viable option.
  7. JackBauer

    JackBauer Rookie

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    You're right. I mean, these are merely experts -- trained economists with every tool at their disposal who do this sort of thing for a living.

    On the other hand, you have your gut feeling. Which I appreciate, since it's the same region of my body I turn to when I need reassurance that the world really is only 6,000 years old.
  8. TBradyOwnsYou

    TBradyOwnsYou Rookie

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    Trained expert means that their guesses equal fact? I'm not saying that *I* have a better answer or guess, I am saying that they have no proof and they're just speculating and I'm not going to buy in to it and proclaim this number as proof that the stimulus was a great thing.
  9. khayos

    khayos Rookie

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    Glad to see you thought the stimulus was awesome and exactly what we needed. I'm sure your children will never regret it.
  10. JackBauer

    JackBauer Rookie

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    It's true, I suppose there is the likelihood that almost every credible economist could be wrong. And there's also a possibility I'll wake up tomorrow to discover the sky is purple.
  11. TBradyOwnsYou

    TBradyOwnsYou Rookie

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    If economists are always right, why did our economy fall apart? It seems to ME that if these EXPERTS were so reliable they would have prevented our economy from hitting the crapper.
  12. khayos

    khayos Rookie

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    Those were only the capitalist economists... the communist ones have been hoping for this for years!
  13. Real World

    Real World Rookie

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    Better yet, if "experts" or economists are always right, why is it that they don't always agree? :confused2:

    My favorite is the dumb down logic of "hey, we just dumped $1 trillion into the economy, and it saved some jobs, so the stimulus is a success!". Well no **** it saved some jobs. Flying a helecopter across the country and pouring that money out the window would have saved some jobs too. The point of contention is whether or not the money was efficiently, and/or productively invested. According to most, it wasn't.
  14. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ~~~Out of Order~~~ PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey

    Is a job counted as in the construction industry ... installing an AC receptacle is considered a job.

    Putting in a window is a job ... and so on :blahblah:
  15. wistahpatsfan

    wistahpatsfan Rookie

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    There's no difference between saying "the stimulus saved jobs" and "the stimulus didn't save jobs".
    Both positions are pure speculation and only reveal what side of the aisle you're on.
    The only thing you can say is "I'm sure glad I'm not growing food and siphoning gas and the whole thing didn't sh!t the bed". There's no way to know how we didn't descend into another Great Depression (was it the bailouts, stimulus, luck, fate?), but thank Santa we didn't.

    So anyways, where are all the jobs coming from? There are still 20% out of work.
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2010
  16. wistahpatsfan

    wistahpatsfan Rookie

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    A "job" is what we're all getting from the government and Wall Street.
  17. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Rookie

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    A great case study of the effects of massive stimulus spending is Japan.

    Go look it up and see how much it helped them. Economic barometers/reports don't even tell the truth anymore (i.e. consumer spending and unemployment are 2 clear examples), so how and why should any of us believe this report.

    Did the first time home buyers credit work? We "could" say "Yes" if you want to look at housing while it was in effect. But if we look at what is happening now, prices are once again declining, mortgage applications have declined dramatically and permits to build new homes are near all time lows.

    The bottom line is that economies WILL find their bottom no matter what. Just as real estate prices will never, ever be determined by gov't stimulus'...wake up folks!:rolleyes:
  18. JackBauer

    JackBauer Rookie

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    O rly? Could you provide some evidence to support that claim?
  19. khayos

    khayos Rookie

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    LOL if you haven't heard the complaints about the "pork" spending in the stimulus bill, then you're just out to lunch.
  20. JackBauer

    JackBauer Rookie

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    LOL way to miss the point... yet again.

    Here is the statement:

    According to most? According to most... laypeople? Experts? Sea-monkeys?

    If the chief aim of the bill was to save jobs, and now everyone from the CBO to private investment groups to the AEI admit the stimulus has saved million(s) of jobs, then I don't see how you could argue the money wasn't efficiently or productively invested?

    If you don't believe the money was productively invested, where do you think it should have gone instead, which would have had the same/greater results in terms of job creation?
  21. khayos

    khayos Rookie

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    Two words: tax cuts
  22. Wolfpack

    Wolfpack Banned

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    Go to the Department of Labor and you can find all sorts of statistics. Unemployment, CPI, average earnings, etc, etc.

    "Saved jobs," however, is a completely made up category. There is absolutely no way to know or calculate this made-up category because it requires a crystal ball enabling you to see into alternate realities. So it goes to follow that since they're making up the category, heck they may as well make up the results.

    It is just a lie the Obama adminstration for their useful idiots on the left.
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2010
  23. JackBauer

    JackBauer Rookie

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    One-third of the stimulus was tax cuts.

    Unless you're really advocating for an entire package consisting of tax cuts. So you can then turn around and complain about the widening budget deficit.
  24. patsfan13

    patsfan13 Hall of Fame Poster PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Well according the the administration experts the unemployment rate would become> 8% in the porkulus package were passed, we know the unemployment rate instead went to 10% and has lingered in that area far longer than in other recessions. May even hit 10% again when the census temps have been laid off.

    It was an abject failure. HEse 'experts' are Full of it.
  25. BSR

    BSR Rookie

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    Did you read the article? As I already quoted, the direct job creation initiatives did not show job creation:

  26. IcyPatriot

    IcyPatriot ~~~Out of Order~~~ PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey


    Oh ... I get it.

    A rim, a hum, a butt, a hand ... all of them ... get them everyday from uncle sam.

    I still think they should give us a coupon for free vaseline when they add a tax.
    Last edited: Jun 11, 2010
  27. chicowalker

    chicowalker Rookie

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    maybe I'm missing your point here, but how is a $ of tax cuts any different than a $ of spending when it comes to the budget deficit?

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