Still Think Maroney, Pees have to go?

[Patspsycho]

Ben Jarvus Green Ellis has a 2.9% DVOA.

This is irrevelant. DVOA requires a mass of data complied by starters who have started or competed in a majority of the games they are in.

BJGE has only played in 5 games last year and 2 this year, and even then typically plays no more than 30% of the snaps.

This past Sunday he was in only 14 of 68 snaps.

 

[Lloyd_Christmas]

Courtesy of Football Outsiders:
NFL Runnings Backs by Success rate: 55+ Carries

The stats are interesting, but one only needs to scroll down the list to see several top RBs with lower percentages than Maroney.

Does this mean Maroney is a better RB than say, Adrian Peterson, or that these stats are misleading?

 

[Synovia]

This is irrevelant. DVOA requires a mass of data complied by starters who have started or competed in a majority of the games they are in.

BJGE has only played in 5 games last year and 2 this year, and even then typically plays no more than 30% of the snaps.

This past Sunday he was in only 14 of 68 snaps.

Screaming "Small sample size" does not make data irrelevant. It makes it more likely to be skewed.


The problem is, BJGE has consistently performed worse than every other RB on the roster. In every metric known. Including the most important ones: The ones the coaches use when they decide depth chart positioning.

 

[Synovia]

The stats are interesting, but one only needs to scroll down the list to see several top RBs with lower percentages than Maroney.

Does this mean Maroney is a better RB than say, Adrian Peterson, or that these stats are misleading?

No, it means that Maroney loses yardage less often than Adrian Peterson, which is a verifiable fact.

 

[emoney_33]

Sorry I wasn't clear or used the wrong word--to me a negative running play is one that kills a drive in a short yardage situation, or puts the offense in a hole on first or second down, or where the back fails to see a seam that good RBs rip through 9 times out of 10.

There are facts that go against your assertions, care to use any facts at all to support your position? How often has Maroney "killed" a drive in a short yardage situation? What's the league average? How often has he put the offense in a hole on first or second down? What's the league average? How often has he missed a seam that 90% of RBs would RIP through? What's the league average on missing these huge seams?

I would love the to hear the argument of how you are an expert that can break down a play so perfectly from the TV feed as to know that 9/10 RBs would rip through a specific seam. Then quantify that, without falling back to your "eyes". If you possess this ability to judge precisely the value of plays based on TV feeds and your memory from your 2 eyes over the course of the last 3+ years, then I just wonder why on earth do BB and every other coach spend so much time watching tapes and studying. All of that must be unnecessary.

 

[Synovia]

Sorry I wasn't clear or used the wrong word--to me a negative running play is one that kills a drive in a short yardage situation, or puts the offense in a hole on first or second down, or where the back fails to see a seam that good RBs rip through 9 times out of 10.

Which is exactly what success rate measures:

Runs of 40% or more of required yards (for a first down)on 1st down.
Runs of 60% or more of required yards on 2nd down.
Runs of 100% or more of required yards on 3rd down (or 4th).


The NFL average running back succeeds about 40% of the time. The best season's are around 60%. Maroney is consistently in the 50s. His success rate has been near the top of the league his entire career.

Your eyes are deceiving you.

 

[Patspsycho]

Screaming "Small sample size" does not make data irrelevant. It makes it more likely to be skewed.


The problem is, BJGE has consistently performed worse than every other RB on the roster. In every metric known. Including the most important ones: The ones the coaches use when they decide depth chart positioning.

That is my point.. it is still small enough to be influenced by one bad game (i.e., skewed). Example: this past Sunday, 7 carries for 6 yards. On paper this looks horrible, but we all know the OL had a bad day at work.

However BJGE has not performed "worse" because he has yet to miss an important block. He was a key player in the flea flicker that broken open the long game last week, and he has not fumbled in the regular season.

 

[PatsFan24]

i have never had an issue with maroney and thought most of the bashing he got on here was garbage. he can run hard and break long plays at times. when was the last time you remember maroney fumbling?

 

[Lloyd_Christmas]

I don't care whether or not you claim it was an attack on Maroney. I care that your assertion was wrong:

Dillon did not "Carry the load" in his last two seasons as a Patriot (2005 and 2006) any more than Maroney "Carried the load" in 2006 and 2007, unless "carry the load" kicks in somewhere between 186 and 199 carries. That's just the reality of the situation.

As for the "cherry picked stats", you are the one who defined the parameters, not me:

I didn't cherry pick anything.

Dillon "Carried the load" in 2004 at the end of his career and in many seasons with the Bengals in his prime. I don't think 2005-2006 were great years for him. He was injured in 2005 and still compiled stats favorable to Maroney's best year. In 2006, he was pretty much at the end of the road, split carries with Maroney, and still out paced him.

My assertion is that Maroney doesn't deserve to hold Dillon's jock when it comes to comparing the two .... even with the Pats, when he was past his prime, let alone the rest of his career. I hold by my assertion.

And for those that keep bringing up All purpose yards .... lol... are you guys kidding me? weak argument.

 

[JMarr]

There are facts that go against your assertions, care to use any facts at all to support your position? How often has Maroney "killed" a drive in a short yardage situation? What's the league average? How often has he put the offense in a hole on first or second down? What's the league average? How often has he missed a seam that 90% of RBs would RIP through? What's the league average on missing these huge seams?

I would love the to hear the argument of how you are an expert that can break down a play so perfectly from the TV feed as to know that 9/10 RBs would rip through a specific seam. Then quantify that, without falling back to your "eyes". If you possess this ability to judge precisely the value of plays based on TV feeds and your memory from your 2 eyes over the course of the last 3+ years, then I just wonder why on earth do BB and every other coach spend so much time watching tapes and studying. All of that must be unnecessary.

Okay, you have all the facts (statistics), I grant you that. If my impressions are subjective because they don't take stats into the equation, then so are Bill's. Yes, he does watch a lot of film and analyses it. I doubt he has looked at one stat this season regarding any of his backs' yards per carry, etc.

 

[Lloyd_Christmas]

No, it means that Maroney loses yardage less often than Adrian Peterson, which is a verifiable fact.

Well then, he MUST be a better RB. You think Minn will do a trade straight up?

 

[Deus Irae]

Dillon "Carried the load" in 2004 at the end of his career and in many seasons with the Bengals in his prime. I don't think 2005-2006 were great years for him. He was injured in 2005 and still compiled stats favorable to Maroney's best year. In 2006, he was pretty much at the end of the road, split carries with Maroney, and still out paced him.

Actually, Maroney had better numbers than Dillon in 2006. He had a higher yards per carry and yards rushing per game. He had a higher yards receiving per game as well. The only one of those stats where Dillon 'out paced' him was in yards per reception.

Again, my issue wasn't with you attacking Maroney, or not attacking Maroney. That's old hat. My issue was your comment about Dillon's "carrying the load" at the end of his career, because he didn't do that in his last two seasons any more than Maroney did it in his two relatively healthy seasons.

My assertion is that Maroney doesn't deserve to hold Dillon's jock when it comes to accomplishments.... even with the Pats, when he was past his prime, let alone the rest of his career. I hold by my assertion.

But that's not the assertion you made. Dillon's 2004 was a tremendous season. 2005 and 2006, though, were really nothing more than what Maroney did in 2006-2007. So, unless you're now going to claim that 2004 was "the end" of Dillon's career even though he had another 2 seasons in the league, it really doesn't apply to the discussion.

And, for the record, I don't consider Maroney to be in anything approaching Dillon's class. I just think your argument about "carrying the load" was a bad one given 2005 and 2006.

 

[Synovia]

That is my point.. it is still small enough to be influenced by one bad game (i.e., skewed). Example: this past Sunday, 7 carries for 6 yards. On paper this looks horrible, but we all know the OL had a bad day at work.

It is, but thats not the case. If anything, BJGE's stats are being skewed by 1 good game.
Here is his career game log:
2008:
Den 13-65 5.0
Stl 9-16 1.8
Ind 15-57 3.8
Buf 26-105 4.0
NYJ 2-9 4.5
Mia 7-20 2.9
PIT 2-3 1.5

2009:
TEN 7-67 9.6
TB 7-6 .9

So, as you can see, the outlier is Tennessee, not TB. Theres a funny thing on there too, the only time hes even approached 4 ypc, its been against terrible defenses. Denver, who may have been the worst defense in the league last year, Buffalo, who had 8 starters on IR by about week 5, and Tennessee this year, who was even worst than two teams last year.

However BJGE has not performed "worse" because he has yet to miss an important block. He was a key player in the flea flicker that broken open the long game last week, and he has not fumbled in the regular season.

BJGE has missed important blocks, and while he hasn't fumbled in the regular season, he has 1 fumble in about 100 career carries, as opposed to maroney's 1 in 450.

 

[Boots Electric]

And for those that keep bringing up All purpose yards .... lol... are you guys kidding me? weak argument.

So, what you're saying is that his return yards that season were not important? That those 783 yards he accumulated did not help the Patriots in any way that season? Those yards did not give the Patriots offensive unit a shorter field to work with or anything of the like? I think of a player in San Diego who last year had 1625 yards returning punts and kickoffs but only had 330 yards rushing. So, his impact in the special teams stat sheet is not important?

 

[Lloyd_Christmas]

I missed how thats relevant to Dillon's time with the Patriots.

I thought you were comparing Maroney to Dillon. His time with the Bengals doesn't count?

I missed how "carrying the load" is important, but, in that light, why did Dillon Lose his "carrying the load"-edness immediately when Maroney showed up?

I think that when comparing two RBs, it is best not to compare a possible may-be-great RB with a proven perenial probowler with an amazing and consistent career and who amassed nearly as many stats in one season as the other guy has done in his entire NFL career.

Let me know when getting 250 carries has anything to do with winning.

Possibly nothing, but we were comparing Maroney to Dillon, not a conversation on what it takes to win.

Like I showed earlier: Maroney's rate stats are better than Dillon's. He compares favorably in every single way except that he hasn't been in the NFL for 10 years.

Well then, rate stats, by themselves, are clearly a lousy way to compare RBs if that leads you to the conclusion that Maroney is as good as (or better) than Corey Dillon or Adrian Peterson, or the many other really good RBs that have found their way below Maroney in the stats you have posted.

 

[Synovia]

Well then, he MUST be a better RB. You think Minn will do a trade straight up?

No, it doesn't, despite your continued insistence on trying to twist my words.


Fact: Lawrence Maroney Loses yardage less often than Adrian Peterson.

 

[Synovia]

I thought you were comparing Maroney to Dillon. His time with the Bengals doesn't count?

We're talking about their time with the Patriots, so no, his time with the Bengals isn't relevant.

Well then, rate stats, by themselves, are clearly a lousy way to compare RBs if that leads you to the conclusion that Maroney is as good as (or better) than Corey Dillon or Adrian Peterson, or the many other really good RBs that have found their way below Maroney in the stats you have posted.

I'm amazed how often people like you come down to "If the stats say I'm wrong, then the stats are wrong".

Maybe the simple explanation here is the correct one: Maroney is actually pretty good, when hes healthy enough to play. He's like the JD Drew of the Patriots.


And again, I never said Maroney was better than Peterson. He's clearly not.

 

[Lloyd_Christmas]

But that's not the assertion you made. Dillon's 2004 was a tremendous season. 2005 and 2006, though, were really nothing more than what Maroney did in 2006-2007. So, unless you're now going to claim that 2004 was "the end" of Dillon's career even though he had another 2 seasons in the league, it really doesn't apply to the discussion.

And, for the record, I don't consider Maroney to be in anything approaching Dillon's class. I just think your argument about "carrying the load" was a bad one given 2005 and 2006.

Fair enough. I consider Dillon's entire time with the Pats to be the "end of his career" his prime was with the Bengals and he was already in decline when he came here ... I guess semantics plays a part in what each of us is comparing.

Perhaps I should not have used "carrying the load" as it appears to have hijacked the discussion. I didn't intend that.

I saw a comparison of Maroney to Dillon in which is seemed to be asserting that Maroney was better than Dillon. I think this was a wild claim without merit... I don't care what a some sample stat says. Stats can be misleading and we have seen several cases of that in this thread alone.

 

[Synovia]

I don't care what a some sample stat says. Stats can be misleading and we have seen several cases of that in this thread alone.

Yes they can, but the whole Idea that Maroney hasn't been very good is a farce.

Yes, he has missed a ton of time because of injury. People seem to forget just how good he has been when he was actually on the field.

 

[Lloyd_Christmas]

So, what you're saying is that his return yards that season were not important? That those 783 yards he accumulated did not help the Patriots in any way that season? Those yards did not give the Patriots offensive unit a shorter field to work with or anything of the like? I think of a player in San Diego who last year had 1625 yards returning punts and kickoffs but only had 330 yards rushing. So, his impact in the special teams stat sheet is not important?

No, not at all. I find them very important to winning, to a discussion of a players overall value, etc ...

I just find them a weak support in a discussion about who is a better RB.

If that all purpose yards were considered, Kevin Faulk is one of the best RBs. While you would be hard pressed to find a bigger supporter of Kevin Faulk than I, I don't consider him to be one of the best. He is an important role player that is very reliable and is very valuable to the team.

Discussing Maroney's return yardage when considering whether or not he is a successful RB is lame IMO. Others may disagree.