Stat's that are the most meaningful.

Discussion in ' - Patriots Fan Forum' started by PATSNUTme, Nov 17, 2012.

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  1. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member Supporter

    #75 Jersey

    It seems that many in the media and some fans dwell on the least meaningful stats and that is yards per game on both offense and defense.

    Here are some stat's that are the most meaningful and usually tell the story about a team, IMVHO.

    Points scored: Patriots 299 - #1 in the NFL
    Points allowed: Patriots 201- tied for #13 in the NFL
    Give away- take away: Patriots are +16 which is #1 in the NFL
    Red Zone offense: Patriots- 93% which is #6 in the NFL
    Red Zone defense:patriots - 81.5% which is #19 in the NFL

    So by looking at those stat's you can usually tell which teams are a top contenders and which teams are not.

    Certainly there is room for improvement in both points allowed and red zone defense. But I do get kind of sick hearing and reading about ypg, as if that is the most important thing.

    Last edited: Nov 17, 2012
  2. mayoclinic

    mayoclinic Supporter Supporter

    I don't think that BB's approach tends to limit defensive yardage much. Even the 2003 defense, which finished #1 in the NFL I fewest points allowed and which is generally regarded as the best of the BB Pats defenses, still only finished 7th in total yardage and 15th in passing defense.
  3. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae Retired Jersey Club Supporter

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    Yards per game is a useful stat
    TOP is a useful stat
    Point differential is a useful stat
    Turnover differential is a useful stat
    Rushing yards allowed is a useful stat
    Passing yards allowed is a useful stat
    Number of defensive plays over 20/30/40 allowed is a useful stat
    Number of offensive plays over 20/30/40 gained is a useful stat

    As with the stats you cited, context is important. Without the context, pretty much any statistic can be misleading.
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2012
  4. VrabelJr

    VrabelJr In the Starting Line-Up

    #50 Jersey

    1. Points
    2. Turnovers

    That's it.
  5. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member Supporter

    #75 Jersey

    All stat's are useful depending on what you are using them for.

    But the stat's that I cited will tell you more about a team than any others.
  6. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae Retired Jersey Club Supporter

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    Buffalo is #12 in the NFL in points, while Minnesota is #11.
    Buffalo is -7 in turnovers, while Minnesota is -4

    49ers are #17 in points, while the Steelers are #17
    Steelers are even in turnovers, while SF is +4

    Buccaneers are #4 in points and +11 (#4) in turnovers

    The notion that points and turnovers are the only stats that matter is as flawed as the notion that only yards matter.
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2012
  7. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae Retired Jersey Club Supporter

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    No, they won't. As with the other stats, they're far too often misleading without context.
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2012
  8. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member Supporter

    #75 Jersey

    Ok then, they won't tell you, but they will me.

    I can look at those stat's and pretty much tell who has a winning record and who doesn't without looking at the standings. Not 100% but very close to it.
  9. Ive_Killed_People

    Ive_Killed_People On the Game Day Roster

    Least meaningful has got to be Time Of Possession.........which we lost to the Rams
  10. PatsDeb

    PatsDeb Supporter Supporter

    Seems to me the only stat that really matters is W-L and on that one we are 6-3, pretty good, but not stellar.
  11. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae Retired Jersey Club Supporter

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    Tampa Bay is #4 in points, and #4 in turnovers. They're 5-4. If it were all about points and turnovers, they'd be much better than that, even at #18 in points allowed.

    New England is #1 in points and #1 in turnover differential. They're #16 in scoring defense. They're only 6-3.

    Without context, every stat fails. Hell, without context, even W-L is often deceiving.
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2012
  12. jnug

    jnug On the Game Day Roster

    I don't know if people really concentrate on yards. Yards are a useful as any other stat. They can tell you something about how a team's offense might attack the Pats defense. Clearly turnover differential is a very important stat. In my case I like to look at relative rankings for yards to get a feel for what might happen if the Pats don't get turnovers.

    Generally I tend to feel like as a team gets deeper into the post season the teams it faces are better and less likely to turn the ball over. In the past we have seen the Pats defense get caught unable to get off the field by any means other than turnover. When they could not get one, time of position often got really ugly for the Pats.

    No question about it though. If you are losing the turnover differential battle, it can be darned difficult to win games.
  13. VrabelJr

    VrabelJr In the Starting Line-Up

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    I guess if I'm going to be the math nerd that I am then stats actually don't matter at all in Football. It's extremely high variance with tiny sample sizes. Essentially there is no standard deviation.
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2012
  14. Metaphors

    Metaphors In the Starting Line-Up

    My favorite non-traditional stats are the drive stats from outsiders. While not perfect, they seem to give solid insight into what teams do well/poorly. If you look at the "NET" ranking, you need to go to #8 (Lions) before you get to a questionable team and all the way to #18 before you hit a dog (Raiders). And you can check the Jets ranking (#27) and see that they are a dumpster fire that even divine intervention can't help.
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2012
  15. Hells yeah. Heck I've seen so many teams have an "elite" record but get bounced in their first and only playoff game. Then some teams squeak into the playoffs and make a deep playoff run. Context means everything.
  16. PatriotSeven

    PatriotSeven In the Starting Line-Up

    And yards per point. Aka, efficiency.
  17. Bravo777

    Bravo777 In the Starting Line-Up

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    1. Points allowed.
    2. Points scored.
    3. Turnovers
    4. Wins and losses.
  18. supafly

    supafly Supporter Supporter

    #32 Jersey

    I would not find that to be necessarily true at all.

    Can you explain the "tiny sample size" that shows the winning percentages dramatically increasing when they are ahead in the turnover margin?

    When you have a chance of winning that is in the 85% range due to being ahead +2 turnovers etc, that seems like a pretty sure thing 8 1/2 out of 10 times. It is also from a very large sample size that is the NFL total games played in x number of years where they kept statistics.

    I would agree that some statistics do not mean as much, but I also think that there are plenty of statistics that are quite important.
  19. supafly

    supafly Supporter Supporter

    #32 Jersey

    I think that the OP points out some good numbers, but it isn't necessarily the stats themselves that make me leery. In other words, I don't really care about allowing passing YPG as a whole, and I felt that it was often misleading last season in 2011.

    However in this season it has proven to show that our pass defense can't stop much of anything, and that a high majority of games are going to come down to the final series or play.

    It's a defense that works out "okay" if 2 very important things happen:

    1. The offense scores a ton of pts ;)

    2. The defense gains an advantage in the turnover margin. As soon as that fails to happen (which will always happen, sometimes in the most unfortunate of circumstances like an 0/3 fumble ratio in the SB), then the defense suddenly looks far below average many of the times. One could argue that this was not the case in the latest SB, but then you'd have to factor in the extra week of preparation too--which matters a lot.

    Two other important statistics to view are success rates of 3rd and 4th down conversions, which are 50/112 (3rd down), and 5/11 (4th down). That shows a team that has a hard time getting off the field when it matters.

    I think the bottom line is that we can say that in some of the past years the defense has allowed a lot of passing yds and pts due to being ahead a great deal and playing in a prevent defense, however this year that seems to be quite different.
    Last edited: Nov 17, 2012
  20. Observer

    Observer 2nd Team Getting Their First Start

    There is not much point in studying average quantities indicated by statistics when one can watch the game and study everything in microscopic detail - how each cornerback is playing, how much the line is pressuring the quarterback, how much protection Brady is getting, etc. The only thing statistics will serve is to rank the teams in order of which has the better statistic. In that context, the W-L record is the only meaningful stat and even that is only a ranking tool after the division is decided.

    Far more important that statistics in head to head competition is individual matchups. We should be more concerned about things like "Can Devin McCourty, Dennard, and Talib adequately cover Victor Cruz, Hakeem Nicks and Mario Manningham?", "Can our defensive line stop bradshaw and Nicks?", "Can our offensive line stop Tuck, Umeniyora, Pierre-Paul, Kiwanuka?" These questions have a lot more bearing on the outcome of any given match than some feel good lump-sum statistic.

    As the old man said - one game at a time, stats are just a by-product.
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