Statistical evidence showing Brady is more clutch than Peyton

[FourierSeries]

Now, most of us already know this is a fact. However, Broncos fans and Colts fans will deny this until they are blue in the face. They will claim Brady had better defenses, that Manning has better stats than Brady, and other such nonsense. So here is the evidence.

First, let's consider their stats based on all of their playoff games. Manning does indeed have a higher yards per game average than Brady: 284 vs 248. Manning also has a slightly higher QB rating: 88.4 vs 87.4. However, Brady has a better TD/INT ratio and averages more TDs per game: 1.75 vs 1.6. Brady also averages fewer INTs per game: 0.92 vs 1.05.

Now, let's move on to the claim that Brady's defenses have been far superior to Peyton's. There is no point in using regular season statistics. Let's look at how each defense performed IN the postseason. Over Brady's 24 post season games, his defense has given up 19.9 points per game. How about Peyton's? 21.8 points per game. 1.9 fewer points per game doesn't exactly make Brady's defense "far superior." Consider that for most of their careers however, Manning did have a superior receiving corps. In their losses, Brady's defense gave up an average of 27.4 points per game, while Manning's gave up only 25.9 points per game.

Now on to their Superbowl runs. Brady's sample size consists of 15 games while Manning's consists of 7. Over Brady's 15 games, his defense allowed 17 points per game while in Manning's 7 games his D allowed 16.6 points per game. Manning actually had a better defense in his Superbowl runs. As far as their individual stats:

Brady: 65.3% completion rate, 238 yards per game, 25 TDs, 10 INT, 3 rush TD, 92.8 QB rating. He averaged 1.7 TD/game and 0.7 INT/game.

Manning: 65.5% completion rate, 284 yards per game, 9 TD, 9 INT, 1 rush TD, 83.5 QB rating. He averaged 1.3 TD/game and 1.3 INT/game.

Brady was directly responsible for 53% of his teams points, while Manning was responsible for only 41%.

Spread this to as many Broncos/Colts/Peyton fans as you know!

Source:
Tom Brady Playoffs Game Log - Pro-Football-Reference.com
Peyton Manning Playoffs Game Log - Pro-Football-Reference.com

 

[PATS16N0]

<3

Colt fans are starting to come around.

Bronco fans are still drunk on not being irrelevant in October.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

That was a fast Fourier transformation of convoluted statistics

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

we need stats to prove he is more clutch? I have eyes...they work fine

 

[TyronePoole]

Advanced NFL Stats: The Myth of Playoff Peyton

 

[Deus Irae]

Advanced NFL Stats: The Myth of Playoff Peyton

Another prime example of why stats are often worse than useless without context. Manning's history of one-and-done games pretty much puts the lie to his WPA scores.

What's far more interesting to me is how your post came through on my screen when you're on ignore, but it's back showing you on ignore now. That's just bizarre.

 

[FourierSeries]

Advanced NFL Stats: The Myth of Playoff Peyton

You realize that article is based on things like WPA and EPA which rely on the use of models, right? When dealing with things like social science and sports, models are extremely flawed. I would be more than glad to have an indepth discussion about that, but this probably isn't the thread to do it. Leave advanced math/stats for the physical sciences where they belong. This is coming from someone with a math degree.

The OP is based on the hard stats. It debunks the claim that Brady has had far superior defenses in the playoffs. It also debunks the claim that the defense carried Brady to his SBs, when in reality his numbers during all playoff runs to the SB are much better than Peyton's.

 

[Jangles]

Oh look another Brady is better than Manning thread.

What an original thought.