jeffbiologist
Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job
- Joined
- Dec 17, 2007
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- 1,440
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I have been hearing for years that the pats are built through the draft and what experts our guys are at picking players. So I dug up all the past drafts back to 2001 for analysis...Some funny statistics for you. Round by round, regardless of standings or trades, here are the hard numbers:
Starter % by round(kickers included/specialists not).This I define by a player starting on his own or by injury replacement for at least 8 games in any given year. These numbers are of course only for our draft picks regardless of where they are playing now:
1st--88%, Not bad considering we are usually at the bottom of the round.
2nd--50%, I bet you thought this number would be higher
3rd--40%, this is usually the round where steals are found consistently
4th--28%, depreciating return
5th--17%, predictable number
6th--0%, and they have had like 20 of these,no Bradys
7th--7%, ya David Givens counts
In 7 years they draft 60 guys, 35 make the team, but only 17 of them ever start.
Here is the interesting fact, only Merriweather hasnt started(yet still might), but look at the POSITIONS they draft in the first to make them stick!! DL,DL,DL,OL,TE,TE,RB,S.
Note-they have drafted 2 TEs and neither has ever made a pro bowl. They drafted a G when they NEEDED one, very rare in the 1st. They drafted a RB when they NEEDED ONE.
What does all this tell me? They prize D lineman high in the draft. They dont take chances. They only draft ball position(cb/wr/rb/qb/s=SMALL GUYS)when there is a need. There has never been a NEED for LB before, and there has never been a LB drafted higher than 5th rd. There has been need for CB, but never one taken in the 1st. This narrows our choices signficantly. If we dont trade down, I think our choice will be between Gholston and Clady. Best guess Gholston.
This also tells me that they almost have to make a difference on the team between starters and non-starters at most positions. They draft specifically for depth/backup positions with most being role players,low budget guys,special teams.
The other thing this tells me is that SP/BB broke these numbers down themselves years ago....and that trading picks for established players is and will continue to be the best way to build a team.
I am going to try and get some other teams to break their numbers down so we can compare our front offices and see who really are the draft gurus. Of course winning games should play into account, it does, you get a better player with more likelihood to start,right?
These numbers can be broken down any number of ways, like if you arent a 1st round pick you only have a 16% chance to ever be a starter! Something to think about next time you fall in love with a sleeper!
Starter % by round(kickers included/specialists not).This I define by a player starting on his own or by injury replacement for at least 8 games in any given year. These numbers are of course only for our draft picks regardless of where they are playing now:
1st--88%, Not bad considering we are usually at the bottom of the round.
2nd--50%, I bet you thought this number would be higher
3rd--40%, this is usually the round where steals are found consistently
4th--28%, depreciating return
5th--17%, predictable number
6th--0%, and they have had like 20 of these,no Bradys
7th--7%, ya David Givens counts
In 7 years they draft 60 guys, 35 make the team, but only 17 of them ever start.
Here is the interesting fact, only Merriweather hasnt started(yet still might), but look at the POSITIONS they draft in the first to make them stick!! DL,DL,DL,OL,TE,TE,RB,S.
Note-they have drafted 2 TEs and neither has ever made a pro bowl. They drafted a G when they NEEDED one, very rare in the 1st. They drafted a RB when they NEEDED ONE.
What does all this tell me? They prize D lineman high in the draft. They dont take chances. They only draft ball position(cb/wr/rb/qb/s=SMALL GUYS)when there is a need. There has never been a NEED for LB before, and there has never been a LB drafted higher than 5th rd. There has been need for CB, but never one taken in the 1st. This narrows our choices signficantly. If we dont trade down, I think our choice will be between Gholston and Clady. Best guess Gholston.
This also tells me that they almost have to make a difference on the team between starters and non-starters at most positions. They draft specifically for depth/backup positions with most being role players,low budget guys,special teams.
The other thing this tells me is that SP/BB broke these numbers down themselves years ago....and that trading picks for established players is and will continue to be the best way to build a team.
I am going to try and get some other teams to break their numbers down so we can compare our front offices and see who really are the draft gurus. Of course winning games should play into account, it does, you get a better player with more likelihood to start,right?
These numbers can be broken down any number of ways, like if you arent a 1st round pick you only have a 16% chance to ever be a starter! Something to think about next time you fall in love with a sleeper!
