Stat Check: Brady's Red Zone Numbers Have Dipped a Bit

[PatsFans.com Article]

Stat Check: Brady's Red Zone Numbers Have Dipped a Bit

Ian Logue

Things have cooled a bit down in scoring territory for the the Patriots passing game in recent weeks, which will be something to keep an eye on over the Patriots' final two games.

Continue reading...

 

[DarrylS]

Thought the O was a tad anemic lately, but as the article points out our point production has been good.

Is is execution? Play calling? Or are we too predictable??

IMO we need to develop more options for Brady other than Gronk, Edelman and LaFell... Wright was in favor for a while, but lately seems to have fallen off of the face of the earth.

Or maybe it is as simple as just holding back for the "Tournament"...

 

[RobertWeathers]

Or maybe it is as simple as just holding back for the "Tournament"...

They may be holding back a little but I think most of it is execution-oriented.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Someone else has pointed out that they've played some pretty tough D's: Detroit, Denver, Miami and San Diego are all in the top ten as measured by yards yielded (as, BTW, are Buffalo and the Jets) but not by points given, except for Detroit which is #1 by that measure.

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Brady in decline?

Et tu Ian, et tu?

 

[Ian]

Thought the O was a tad anemic lately, but as the article points out our point production has been good.

Is is execution? Play calling? Or are we too predictable??

IMO we need to develop more options for Brady other than Gronk, Edelman and LaFell... Wright was in favor for a while, but lately seems to have fallen off of the face of the earth.

Or maybe it is as simple as just holding back for the "Tournament"...

I was surprised when I saw those numbers because I was in the middle of trying to put together something around the improvement they've had in recent weeks offensively, and then doing the comparison I did a bit of a double-take.

As I mentioned in the entry, the teams they've played the last four weeks have had good defenses, which obviously explains the drop off in points that we've seen. I think one thing that's also frustrating is the fact they're really off by one receiver in terms of if they had one other really dangerous guy, it would really open things up quite a bit for the rest of this group. It's just really too bad that Amendola hasn't been that guy...nor has he been the guy he was last season. He had eight plays of over 20 yards in 2013, including one over 50. This year, not one. And with Dobson not panning out this year, it's really left them slightly shorthanded from that standpoint.

Fortunately LaFell has been terrific and Edelman has also played well, and if the two stay healthy and they have Gronkowski, they've obviously got a pretty terrific shot to be there when the dust settles.

 

[Ian]

Brady in decline?

Et tu Ian, et tu?

LOL, no, far from it.

 

[oldrover]

From Ian's sacrilegious article:

PREVIOUS 4 WEEKS: 16-of-23 (70%) 11 TD’s and no INTs.

LAST 4 WEEKS: 10-of-23 (43%) 6 TD’S and 2 INTs.

Three simple explanations:

1. Better defenses lately.
2. Some WTH playcalls down close by the Wunderkind.
3. Two Brady brainfarts.

The first one... well, from here on out, the defenses will most likely be pretty good (Jets notwithstanding). So that'll be a factor, but not insurmountable. And I'm hopeful Brady has exorcised his pick demons via the liberal use of f-bombs. Only one I'm really worried about is Joshie-poo.

 

[Ian]

One thing I will point out out from that article is their overall red zone efficiency over that stretch, which with the exception of the Chargers game has still been decent:

"New England was 11-of-18 (61%) overall in red zone efficiency over the last four weeks and 3-of-5 in the Red Zone on Sunday."

Here's a look at the last four games:

3-of-5 (60%) vs Miami
1-of-4 (25%) at San Diego
3-of-3 (100%) at Green Bay (this kills me since they lost, because the Packers were 0-for-4)
4-of-6 (67%) vs Detroit

So the good news is while Brady's struggled a bit, they've still been relatively productive.

 

[RobertWeathers]

1-of-4 (25%) at San Diego

IMO one bad Brady throw,questionable play-calling and SD playing their best defensive game of the year had a lot to do with those %

 

[Archeryaddict12]

One thing I will point out out from that article is their overall red zone efficiency over that stretch, which with the exception of the Chargers game has still been decent:

"New England was 11-of-18 (61%) overall in red zone efficiency over the last four weeks and 3-of-5 in the Red Zone on Sunday."

Here's a look at the last four games:

3-of-5 (60%) vs Miami
1-of-4 (25%) at San Diego
3-of-3 (100%) at Green Bay (this kills me since they lost, because the Packers were 0-for-4)
4-of-6 (67%) vs Detroit

So the good news is while Brady's struggled a bit, they've still been relatively productive.

On the rebound. But wright needs to be more involved

 

[VrabelJr]

When I compare those two samples one thing sticks out as the difference: running the ball effectively.

DET, SD, GB and Miami never even had to honor our running game in the red zone. We were one dimensional and it makes all that much harder to throw for TDs.

 

[Ian]

On the rebound. But wright needs to be more involved

Wasn't trying to rebound, and that entry was more of just pointing out those numbers vs trying to criticize Brady.

Was just joking with Steve Balestrieri about a Brady feature that I wrote Monday that he's already read after I had some assistance from Bob Buttaro editing (Bob actually is a member here in the forum and edits most of our content and has been terrific). It's set for tomorrow morning and obviously this entry throws the timing of it off. I'd like to think most people know my thoughts on him as a player and how much the early season nonsense about him irritated me, which I expressed in here while it was going on. Love the people out there who spend their time waiting for players to fail...guessing they're a lot of fun to be around in the real world.

But that Brady feature is set for tomorrow morning with a few bits people might find interesting.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

When I compare those two samples one thing sticks out as the difference: running the ball effectively.

DET, SD, GB and Miami never even had to honor our running game in the red zone. We were one dimensional and it makes all that much harder to throw for TDs.

My first instinct is to agree, but if we look at the games since the break, the only game where they heavily emphasized the run was @Indy, when they ran the ball 44 times for 246 yards while passing 30 times for 257 yards.

In the Detroit and GB games they ran the ball 20 times for 90 yards (DET) and 18 times for 84 yards (GB). The SD and Miami games were in between: 28 times for 87 yds @SD and 29 times for 108 yds v. MIA.

In other words, the play selection is all over the map and doesn't seem to be correlated to the score: 42 points by running 44 times at Indy and 41 points by running 29 times v. Miami. They scored 23 points while running 28 times @SD and 34 points by running 20 times v. Detroit.

The only game that was a real head scratcher to me was @GB, where they only ran 18 times and left the D on the field for over 36 minutes; that, I didn't understand.

 

[Patsfanin Philly]

But their red zone scoring over the last four weeks has been 61%, nearly their yearly average of 62%. It could be that teams are stacking up for the pass, giving the Patriots opportunities to run it in. Look at Vareen (?) TD last week. Gronk was double covered so Brady audibled to the run and they scored a TD. It's not a passing TD but 6 points still the same.
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The good news is that Brady’s recent red zone struggles haven’t necessarily kept them from scoring points. New England was 11-of-18 (61%) overall in red zone efficiency over the last four weeks and 3-of-5 in the Red Zone on Sunday, which included a 27-point second half against the Dolphins.f>>>