Spikes - maybe a little writing on the wall

[Froob]

Really hope he doesn't leave, love the attitude and intensity he brings. If he had Mayo/Willis speed he might have been one of the greats. I mean, the guy will get a clean hit but he hits so mother****ing hard flags start flying.

 

[Avenger]

I agree with the way better version of Ninkovich projection. But if that's the case, what does that have to do with Spikes or Hightower? If anything it's "writing on the wall" for Ninkovich.

And they started Hightower out at MLB and he didn't end up playing a second there during the season. Where Collins starts out at early OTAs is irrelevant really.

Collins has a more of a body for LB than DL, if he were to be an end he would get killed in the run game.

 

[DaBruinz]

Not by much, and that wasn't what I claimed, in any case. I stated that he was extremely slow, which he is.

Actually, yes, he is faster than you claim. By a lot more. His game speed is better than average to good. You seem to have a problem understanding that.

Reading comprehension fail. Let me simplify this for you:

"My guess would be that, like Cunningham, Spikes was drafted to play in a base defensive scheme that the Patriots no longer run"

"was drafted to play in a base defensive scheme"

"base defensive scheme"

"base"

There is no fail on my part. You don't seem to understand that they still play the 3-4 as the BASE on occasion. And they change it up as well. But you just keep right on talking out your rear end. Shows that you shouldn't be taken seriously.

Key word in that statement. As a 3-4 ILB, there's a lot of value in the Ted Johnson role of stacking and shedding blockers, and in the process freeing up Mayo to be a Bruschi-style playmaker. His ability to see plays developing and be in the right place at the right time within a fairly small window, in that role, is a lot more important than straight-line speed. As a MLB with four down linemen in front of him, his strengths are far less required, and his limitations in space become a major issue. How many times this season did you see a receiver crossing the field in front of him, and then catching the ball cleanly and turning upfield when he was simply unable to keep up?

As far as another team trading for him, what would they give up? I don't see why any rival GM would give more than a 6th rounder for a guy like him with one year left on his contract. His being on the field creates almost as many problems as it solves.

What you think they could get for him is irrelevant. Also, in this type of trade, the player is usually given an extension. They'll get more than a 6th. You're yapping is just another example of you not actually following what goes on in the league.

He would have had a lot more value in 1993, but in 2013 he's too much of a liability in coverage to be anything more than a situational contributor. Pretty much the same thing I've been saying about Chung for the last few years, although to Spikes' credit he does have the advantage of being a significantly better football player than Chung- at least he's extremely good at the one dimension that his game does have.

Again, your perceptions are flawed. Siginificantly. There are numerous teams running the 3-4 that could use him. But, yeah, whatever you want to delude yourself into believing. Seriously. It's absolutely ridiculous the crap that fans like yourself spew about players who you don't like.

 

[PittPatriot]

Maybe this will make you feel beter :

CRABLE
Height: 6047
Weight: 245
40 Yrd Dash: 4.61
20 Yrd Dash: 2.70
10 Yrd Dash: 1.56
225 Lb. Bench Reps: 29
Vertical Jump: 28
Broad Jump: 09'03"
20 Yrd Shuttle: 4.55
3-Cone Drill: 7.29

COLLINS
Height: 6034
Weight: 250
40 Yrd Dash: 4.59
20 Yrd Dash: 2.61
10 Yrd Dash: 1.58
225 Lb. Bench Reps: 19
Vertical Jump: 41 1/2
Broad Jump: 11'07"
20 Yrd Shuttle: 4.32
3-Cone Drill: 7.10

Thanks for the data - I stand corrected. I guess my recollection of Crable and blind love affair was false! Ok, you got me excited over seeing Mr. Collins in action.

 

[dannydyn]

Time to put my Spikes jersey on eBay while he's still a Patriot....

 

[Ivan]

BelichickFan, Collins played DE all last year. How do you know the Patriots plan to use Collins as an off the line LB long term?

That's college, he is not big enough to play end for the Patriots. He fits perfectly as an OLB in a 4-3 and has the coverage abilities they need.

 

[Ivan]

I would rather have Spikes here for the season than a draft pick, unless it is a first rounder and I don't see any team parting with one for him. The Patriots have anywhere from 3-5 more shots with Brady as their QB and their roster is already loaded with young players, they need to maximize those opportunities not stockpile picks for future drafts and Spikes is a really good player who makes game changing plays and they will need him to give them their best chance at winning it all this season. I don't believe they can re-sign him and have felt that way for a long time, I think he wants big money and it may well be that they have either had or tried to have initial discussions on a new deal that have not gone as he wanted them to and that is why he is not working out at their facilities. Much as I like Spikes as a player i think this will be his last season in New England and hopefully they all make the most of that.

 

[Nunchucks]

Spikes played 66% of the defensive snaps at LB last year.
Defensive snaps - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

Now, I wouldn't mind seeing that cut down to maybe 50%, depending on the situation. But, he was a tone-setter and a very good player for the Patriots. I would rather see him remain with the team after next season.

 

[BelichickFan]

I would rather have Spikes here for the season than a draft pick, unless it is a first rounder and I don't see any team parting with one for him.

I fully expect Spikes to be on the team this season barring some nutty offer.

I expect it to play out with Spikes playing this year a decent amount but not on passing downs, the Patriots making him an offer based on him being on the field something less than half the time - as a rotational player - and Spikes heading off to FA looking for a better offer. When I said "writing on the wall" I didn't want, or expect, him to be cut. Just that I don't think the Patriots will pau him as a full time starter and if his absence "sticks out like a sore thumb" from offseason workouts that makes it even less likely.

 

[Ivan]

I fully expect Spikes to be on the team this season barring some nutty offer.

I expect it to play out with Spikes playing this year a decent amount but not on passing downs, the Patriots making him an offer based on him being on the field something less than half the time - as a rotational player - and Spikes heading off to FA looking for a better offer. When I said "writing on the wall" I didn't want, or expect, him to be cut. Just that I don't think the Patriots will pau him as a full time starter and if his absence "sticks out like a sore thumb" from offseason workouts that makes it even less likely.

I agree with both you and nunchucks on this, I expect him here this season but I believe he will want big money for a full time player and they will want to pay him like a rotational player. I think the Patriots are going to come in at half of what he is looking for at best and they won't get close on a deal unless they come up with some incredibly creative formula for it.

 

[Ivan]

Spikes played 66% of the defensive snaps at LB last year.
Defensive snaps - New England Patriots Blog - ESPN Boston

Now, I wouldn't mind seeing that cut down to maybe 50%, depending on the situation. But, he was a tone-setter and a very good player for the Patriots. I would rather see him remain with the team after next season.

I think Spikes will blow a gasket if they reduce him to half the defensive snaps. I am not saying that wouldn't be best for the team I just think he will take it as an effort to reduce his value in a contract season and will be extremely pissed off about it.

 

[everlong]

I thought Spikes was a prime candidate to be traded on draft day so I wouldn't be shocked to see him still go before the season starts especially if Hightower progresses as I think he will and Collins is ahead of the curve. I still think the Browns are the most likely landing spot.

 

[Nunchucks]

I think Spikes will blow a gasket if they reduce him to half the defensive snaps. I am not saying that wouldn't be best for the team I just think he will take it as an effort to reduce his value in a contract season and will be extremely pissed off about it.

Depends on offensive personnel and the defense being called. Spikes can cover in a short zone, he is fine down by the goal line. However, he should never be asked to play man coverage. He got eaten up by TEs last year. That is why we have Adrian Wilson and now Jamie Collins.

 

[MTM558]

So just because Spikes decided to stay off Twitter for a while, and how he decided to now fully participate in VOLUNTARY workouts, he's suddenly a prime candidate to be cut or traded?

Makes perfect sense...

Seriously though, with Bill, I suppose anything goes. But what about the times that Brady wasn't fully participating in these same camps? How come he wasn't cut or traded?

Spikes does not need to be here until mandatory activities start. If he shows up in good shape and plays like a beast, nobody will mention anything of this.

But I do understand where the desire to let Spikes walk comes from. He can single handedly shut down a running game... but that's about it. While he did have 7 PDs last season, maybe 5 of them were thrown directly to him. He's a liability in coverage. In today's pass happy NFL, I'm not sure a team can afford to have "Base Defense Only" players.

If Spikes walks after the season, I could see Hightower manning his more natural MLB spot, with Collins or a new LB manning the SLB.

 

[mgteich]

If Spikes can single handedly shut down the run, then Spikes is certainly worth one of our 53 roster spots. The open question is how much Spikes is worth, if he truly is so poor at passing downs. We certainly have DL's who should only be playing the base package.

But I do understand where the desire to let Spikes walk comes from. He can single handedly shut down a running game... In today's pass happy NFL, I'm not sure a team can afford to have "Base Defense Only" players.

If Spikes walks after the season, I could see Hightower manning his more natural MLB spot, with Collins or a new LB manning the SLB.

 

[Ivan]

Depends on offensive personnel and the defense being called. Spikes can cover in a short zone, he is fine down by the goal line. However, he should never be asked to play man coverage. He got eaten up by TEs last year. That is why we have Adrian Wilson and now Jamie Collins.

Like I said, I wasn't talking about what they should do, i agree with you on that, I was talking about how Spikes would respond to having his playing time significantly curtailed in a contract year, and i don't believe that would go over well at all.

 

[Ivan]

If Spikes can single handedly shut down the run, then Spikes is certainly worth one of our 53 roster spots. The open question is how much Spikes is worth, if he truly is so poor at passing downs. We certainly have DL's who should only be playing the base package.

My guess is the Patriots would want 4 years at 18 million with about 6 guaranteed, and Spikes would want 4-5 for 32-35 million with 15-18 guaranteed, but that's obviously just a guess. The Patriots may not even want to go that high if he is just playing on running downs.

 

[belichick010405]

Not by much, and that wasn't what I claimed, in any case. I stated that he was extremely slow, which he is.



Reading comprehension fail. Let me simplify this for you:

"My guess would be that, like Cunningham, Spikes was drafted to play in a base defensive scheme that the Patriots no longer run"

"was drafted to play in a base defensive scheme"

"base defensive scheme"

"base"

Key word in that statement. As a 3-4 ILB, there's a lot of value in the Ted Johnson role of stacking and shedding blockers, and in the process freeing up Mayo to be a Bruschi-style playmaker. His ability to see plays developing and be in the right place at the right time within a fairly small window, in that role, is a lot more important than straight-line speed. As a MLB with four down linemen in front of him, his strengths are far less required, and his limitations in space become a major issue. How many times this season did you see a receiver crossing the field in front of him, and then catching the ball cleanly and turning upfield when he was simply unable to keep up?

As far as another team trading for him, what would they give up? I don't see why any rival GM would give more than a 6th rounder for a guy like him with one year left on his contract. His being on the field creates almost as many problems as it solves.

He would have had a lot more value in 1993, but in 2013 he's too much of a liability in coverage to be anything more than a situational contributor. Pretty much the same thing I've been saying about Chung for the last few years, although to Spikes' credit he does have the advantage of being a significantly better football player than Chung- at least he's extremely good at the one dimension that his game does have.

Spikes and Bryan Cox are synonymous. If BB values the versatility that Spikes can still allow their front 7 to slide into some 3-4 looks in order to stop the run then there is a good chance that the Pats will re-sign him. With that said - the percentage of 3-4 looks will continue to decline because of the personnel that are on the roster.

Jones, Collins, Armstead, Francis and Bequette are all better fits in a 4-3 setting and there is no disputing that.

Mayo can be in either setting and on the outside or inside.

Hightower can be a 4-3 SLB or a 3-4 ILB or a 4-3 MLB.

Wilfork can either be a 4-3 DT or 3-4 NT. Same with Love.

Kelly can be a 4-3 DT or a 3-4 DE. Guys like Deadrick fall into the same boat as Kelly.

Cunningham can be a 3-4 or a 4-3 DE as well as a 4-3 DT.

Ninkovich can be either a 3-4 OLB, a 4-3 OLB or a 4-3 DE.

And, my guess is that Buchanan can be a 4-3 OLB, a 3-4 OLB or a 4-3 DE in sub-packages.

This is why Spikes is at risk because outside of being a ILB, he offers no positional versatility.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Spikes and Bryan Cox are synonymous. If BB values the versatility that Spikes can still allow their front 7 to slide into some 3-4 looks in order to stop the run then there is a good chance that the Pats will re-sign him. With that said - the percentage of 3-4 looks will continue to decline because of the personnel that are on the roster.

Jones, Collins, Armstead, Francis and Bequette are all better fits in a 4-3 setting and there is no disputing that.

Mayo can be in either setting and on the outside or inside.

Hightower can be a 4-3 SLB or a 3-4 ILB or a 4-3 MLB.

Wilfork can either be a 4-3 DT or 3-4 NT. Same with Love.

Kelly can be a 4-3 DT or a 3-4 DE. Guys like Deadrick fall into the same boat as Kelly.

Cunningham can be a 3-4 or a 4-3 DE as well as a 4-3 DT.

Ninkovich can be either a 3-4 OLB, a 4-3 OLB or a 4-3 DE.

And, my guess is that Buchanan can be a 4-3 OLB, a 3-4 OLB or a 4-3 DE in sub-packages.

This is why Spikes is at risk because outside of being a ILB, he offers no positional versatility.

Agreed. In a vacuum, there is absolutely value to having a guy like Spikes around. He would have had a lot more value 10-20 years ago, but even today he has some, especially if you can ensure that he never has man coverage responsibilities, or even regular zone responsibilities.

That said, I am pretty confident that his estimation of his own value will be *far* more than his value to the Patriots. To a team that runs a 3-4 defense with more frequency than the the Pats do--particularly a team with safeties and LBers who cover well, and is looking for a thumper to help stop the run--he'll end up being worth a lot more to them than he is to us.

 

[belichick010405]

Agreed. In a vacuum, there is absolutely value to having a guy like Spikes around. He would have had a lot more value 10-20 years ago, but even today he has some, especially if you can ensure that he never has man coverage responsibilities, or even regular zone responsibilities.

That said, I am pretty confident that his estimation of his own value will be *far* more than his value to the Patriots. To a team that runs a 3-4 defense with more frequency than the the Pats do--particularly a team with safeties and LBers who cover well, and is looking for a thumper to help stop the run--he'll end up being worth a lot more to them than he is to us.

I'll make a prediction right now. Next year, at this time, Brandon Spikes is a New York Jet unless BB wants Spikes more than Sexy Rexy (if he still has a job).