Some X and O's thoughts on the upcoming Ravens game

[Sciz]

I don't know why everyone is so worried about Ngata. He's a good player, but it's not like he's going to singlehandedly prevent the Pats from passing. According to PFF, who very freely credits guys with hurries and such (relative to a site like Football Outsiders, who doesn't release their pass rushing stats until after the season, unfortunately), Ngata had 26 pressures this regular season, fewer than two per game. That doesn't scare me a whole lot.

 

[mgcolby]

I don't know why everyone is so worried about Ngata. He's a good player, but it's not like he's going to singlehandedly prevent the Pats from passing. According to PFF, who very freely credits guys with hurries and such (relative to a site like Football Outsiders, who doesn't release their pass rushing stats until after the season, unfortunately), Ngata had 26 pressures this regular season, fewer than two per game. That doesn't scare me a whole lot.

He hasn't been his usual self since signing his big contract. But two things.

1. He still has the capability of winning 2 on 1 battles.
2. He requires double teaming freeing up other guys to get in the backfield.

 

[NEP4Life]

Ngata.

Ngata and Suggs coming from Brady's blind side are an impressive combination. Light and Mankins could well need TE/RB help.

 

[RobertWeathers]

I don't know why everyone is so worried about Ngata. He's a good player, but it's not like he's going to singlehandedly prevent the Pats from passing. According to PFF, who very freely credits guys with hurries and such (relative to a site like Football Outsiders, who doesn't release their pass rushing stats until after the season, unfortunately), Ngata had 26 pressures this regular season, fewer than two per game. That doesn't scare me a whole lot.

For a DE/OLB that is poor

For a DT, that is very good.

 

[RobertWeathers]

hopefully pats dont forget to run the ball like they did last yr vs the jets.

Pats had 25 designated running plays. The issue was that the longest gain was 11 yds. No explosiveness and the Jets did a great job of tackling and the Pats didn't have a gamebreaker in the backfield to force the Jets to commit a LB or xtra DL on the LoS. That is where Ridley has value.

 

[IcyPatriot]

A player not being discussed much ... but I'm thinking Danny Woodhead could and may well be a big time player this weekend - just a hunch ... lots of match ups being discussed but if Woodhead is in there as a receiver that would be insane. Those plays where Woodhead and Welker line up on the same side and hide behind Gronk and they split in 3 directions. Linebackers so concerned with chipping Gronk and Hernandez could mean lots of room for Woodhead.

 

[Elijah T.]

I don't know why everyone is so worried about Ngata. He's a good player, but it's not like he's going to singlehandedly prevent the Pats from passing. According to PFF, who very freely credits guys with hurries and such (relative to a site like Football Outsiders, who doesn't release their pass rushing stats until after the season, unfortunately), Ngata had 26 pressures this regular season, fewer than two per game. That doesn't scare me a whole lot.

Agreed.

Ngata has natural movement skills and strength which are uncommon for a man his size, but he doesn't play with a high motor, nor does he handle interior lineman who play with sound and steady technique very well.

I'm not worried about him too much.

And to touch on another post up top concerning our running game...I don't know what Shane Vereen did or hasn't done in meetings/practice, because he's our most dynamic runner...no question.

I know he's struggled with a hamstring early and then later...But when he gets on the field, watch out. You completely have to respect the cutback, alley and boundary when he's on the field. Extremely quick and great COD.

He's a less powerful but slightly quicker Ray Rice...sure handed also.

I wish we could get him on the field more.

 

[Matt Hooper]

Ngata and Suggs coming from Brady's blind side are an impressive combination. Light and Mankins could well need TE/RB help.

You have to double them both unless you are Joe Thomas. Period.

 

[i82much]

You have to double them both unless you are Joe Thomas. Period.

Ya know, people say that a lot about different players, but I am not so sure. I think there are specific plays where you see legit double teams. More often, you see a TE or RB chip a player and release (or a RB stay in the backfield to pick up the blitz), leaving an offensive lineman one on one with even guys like Suggs and Ngata. I am not saying they don't get double teamed but it's not like they occupy four offensive lineman between them on every play.

 

[Matt Hooper]

Ya know, people say that a lot about different players, but I am not so sure. I think there are specific plays where you see legit double teams. More often, you see a TE or RB chip a player and release (or a RB stay in the backfield to pick up the blitz), leaving an offensive lineman one on one with even guys like Suggs and Ngata. I am not saying they don't get double teamed but it's not like they occupy four offensive lineman between them on every play.

The texans did a good job on both. I was at that game and saw both guys doubled most of the time.

 

[supafly]

And to touch on another post up top concerning our running game...I don't know what Shane Vereen did or hasn't done in meetings/practice, because he's our most dynamic runner...no question.

I know he's struggled with a hamstring early and then later...But when he gets on the field, watch out. You completely have to respect the cutback, alley and boundary when he's on the field. Extremely quick and great COD.

He's a less powerful but slightly quicker Ray Rice...sure handed also.

I wish we could get him on the field more.

Vereen started off at the bottom of the totem pole, as a rookie who was already not expected to contribute all that much as it was. Then you had the fact that Faulk was coming back for another year, and offers great support in blitz pickup. Woodhead is shifty, effective, and knowledgable in the hurry-up. BJGE was our "1,000 yd rusher," and is our best ball handler...in other words, they all have their respected roles here in the RBBC.

The labor situation, and Vereen's missing most of training camp certainly did not do anything to 'help' his cause for playing time this yr. As the yr went on, his injury nagged a bit, and any expected minor contribution was pretty much over.

He doesn't have a good enough knowledge of the playbook, the intricities of the hurry-up, the audibles and calls, the famiarlization of playing with Brady and the line, etc...and most importantly, the blitz pickup.

He will be expected to contribute on a much bigger level next yr, as the potential for Faulk not returning and/or even BJGE not returning will help open a role/hole for him on this team. He will obviously still have to earn playing time, but an entire off-season, mini-camps, and a full training camp is exactly what he needs.

 

[goheels22002]

On offense, in '10 we ran a lot of empty formations, and I think we will see the same here, except this time the empty will be in the spread with flood options, and we'll be in no-huddle because the Ravens pretty much have not seen it this year. Expect to see a lot of hurry-up with little run plays because the run plays require compressed formations and that is what the Ravens D love- they want BOB (big on big), they don't like running sideline to sideline or defending the open field. Closed or compressed formations play to their strengths, and I think we'll stay away from that. Expect to see a few of Woodhead/AH in the hybrid HB/RB offset I (same as last week).

I guarantee that there will be at least one double-reverse handoff play. We ran two of that in the '10 game, one with AH and one with Tate and they went for big gains- this is another way of exploiting Ravens tendency to overpursue.

If the OL wins, Brady wins, and we win the game, pure plain and simple. But there are two big areas of concern on the line- in the '10 game, Koppen got taken to the woodshed by Ngata, resulting in that forced fumble on the opening drive and a crucial sack late in the game off a loop, IIRC. We have Connolly in his place now, and while Connolly is bigger, heavier, and more athletic, he will still have problems with Ngata, because there just is nobody like Ngata who is a monster at nose. Also the Ravens like to attack Light and go at him laterally- you will see Suggs speed rush him from 8 or 9 tech, never on the inside, because Light has a hard time riding speed rushers past Brady. They love to go at him and pick on him.

Great post. Nobody is talking much about the balance the Patriots bring to these games between the run and the pass. It's remarkable to me to look back at the box score and see the balance and the steady 100+ yards of production from a varied group of rushers, which now includes Hernandez.

The Ravens over-pursue a lot and neutralizing Ngata and Suggs, and taking advantage of Lewis has to be a focus. Running right at them, for gains or not, forces them to mind their assignments and stay in their lanes. That is particularly so with the lateral attacks from the outside, especially on Light's side. If somebody is coming your way in the running game or on a screen you either stay home and do the job or get caught in the wash. It's also great to see the WR blocking schemes which even Ocho does well.

With the interior line doing such a good job, watch for lots of Woodhead and Ridley (and Brady on 3rd and short) going right at Ngata. That stuff takes its toll.

The hurry-up and direct attacks on imposing defensive linemen and penetrating linebackers wear these guys out and gets them winded - often as valuable as any yardage you might pick up.

 

[Patspsycho]

Great post. Nobody is talking much about the balance the Patriots bring to these games between the run and the pass. It's remarkable to me to look back at the box score and see the balance and the steady 100+ yards of production from a varied group of rushers, which now includes Hernandez.

The Ravens over-pursue a lot and neutralizing Ngata and Suggs, and taking advantage of Lewis has to be a focus. Running right at them, for gains or not, forces them to mind their assignments and stay in their lanes. That is particularly so with the lateral attacks from the outside, especially on Light's side. If somebody is coming your way in the running game or on a screen you either stay home and do the job or get caught in the wash. It's also great to see the WR blocking schemes which even Ocho does well.

With the interior line doing such a good job, watch for lots of Woodhead and Ridley (and Brady on 3rd and short) going right at Ngata. That stuff takes its toll.

The hurry-up and direct attacks on imposing defensive linemen and penetrating linebackers wear these guys out and gets them winded - often as valuable as any yardage you might pick up.

That is the hope here. I think we will do a few IZ runs probably for little to no gain just to keep the D honest or to set them up for a PA.

 

[patfanken]

Nice post PP here are a couple of thoughts on this thread.

1. Kudos for bringing up the 2010 game, until your post too little has been mentioned of that game. The mediots keep carping on the now irrelevant 2009 playoff game, while last years very close game is a much better indicator.

2. The most encouraging fact that you brought out was the that Rice was held to 3.1 ypc. on 25 carries. We pretty much have the same cast of characters on both sides of the ball, so I find it comforting to know that we at least have have "capability" to control the Raven's running game. This is a much under reported stat. btw- since Rice is also has the most receptions on the team with over 70, how many catches did he have last season?

3. When all is said and done, the Key match is NOT the Pats passing game vs the Raven's secondary. The Key match up is the Pats OL vs the Raven's DL. Like you said, if Brady has time on Sunday, then there is no way the Pats don't win. However, that being said the Ravens definitely has the right mix of power and speed to cause the OL problems.

Brady WILL be sacked before the game is over. He WILL be hurried and hit, especially early in the game before the Raven's game plan becomes apparent. It will only really become an issue is if it continues throughout the game.

4. As to the RB talk here's how I see it. Vereen might actually be our most "dynamic" RB, but baring injury he's not going to see the field at this late date. This has been a red shirt year for Vareen. A combination of his own injuries and a too many other RBs kept him off the field this year. Fortunately we did see enough in his brief appearances to keep us enticed.

Kevin Faulk will see the field because he can be trusted to field a punt, pick up a blitz, and catch the ball, but I don't think we'll see much of him

I think BB will trust Ridley, and he'll get his 10-15 touches.

I wish Woody would get more of a chance to run the ball on a regular basis in non-short yardage situations. I also hope Brady uses his RBs more in the passing game. All of them catch the ball well, yet we NEVER hear about them when the passing attack is mentioned

I hope BJGE is limited to short yardage and GL work.

 

[Fencer]

One scheme/counter-scheme issue:

1. The Pats have a lot of motivation to chip Suggs and other Ravens front-seven players.

2. The Ravens have a lot of motivation to try to jam the Pats receivers.

My first inclination is:

A. Put Branch and Gronk at the line.

B. Hope that Gronk can get into combat at the line and STILL not be effectively single-covered.

C. Try to get clean releases for Welker and Hernandez, making it hard to single-cover them.

D. Concede that Branch can get manhandled at the line; at this stage of his career he can often be single-covered anyway.

Ochocinco can substitute for Branch in this discussion.

If that works out, Brady still has the OL and the RB vs. 5 defenders, one of them chipped by Gronk. Good odds, especially if the RB is Woodhead or Faulk.

I wouldn't be surprised if this were Faulk's most effective game in a long time, and also the last productive game of his career.

 

[strngplyr]

Wondering if we'll see a lot of bunch formations and stacks along with "legal" picks and rubs to avoid getting mauled at the line like we did against Pitt and NYG.

 

[Patspsycho]

Wondering if we'll see a lot of bunch formations and stacks along with "legal" picks and rubs to avoid getting mauled at the line like we did against Pitt and NYG.

Walker will be the underneath man on some of the stacks to avoid getting mauled at the line, as you say.

The Ravens are experienced enough to flip on the rubs so I don't expect to see that being very effective, unless you end up with a mismatch.

I expect to see a lot of motion to try and call where the overload is when Brady suspects there is one. Also expect to see Hernandez back in the hybrid HB/RB because that will force Ray Lewis to match up with him.

I am sure the Ravens are going to try to be extremely disciplined to not tip their hands on a hard count or give away too much.

I really think it all comes down to how good our OL does tomorrow.

 

[Patspsycho]

Nice post PP here are a couple of thoughts on this thread.

1. Kudos for bringing up the 2010 game, until your post too little has been mentioned of that game. The mediots keep carping on the now irrelevant 2009 playoff game, while last years very close game is a much better indicator.

2. The most encouraging fact that you brought out was the that Rice was held to 3.1 ypc. on 25 carries. We pretty much have the same cast of characters on both sides of the ball, so I find it comforting to know that we at least have have "capability" to control the Raven's running game. This is a much under reported stat. btw- since Rice is also has the most receptions on the team with over 70, how many catches did he have last season?

3. When all is said and done, the Key match is NOT the Pats passing game vs the Raven's secondary. The Key match up is the Pats OL vs the Raven's DL. Like you said, if Brady has time on Sunday, then there is no way the Pats don't win. However, that being said the Ravens definitely has the right mix of power and speed to cause the OL problems.

Brady WILL be sacked before the game is over. He WILL be hurried and hit, especially early in the game before the Raven's game plan becomes apparent. It will only really become an issue is if it continues throughout the game.

4. As to the RB talk here's how I see it. Vereen might actually be our most "dynamic" RB, but baring injury he's not going to see the field at this late date. This has been a red shirt year for Vareen. A combination of his own injuries and a too many other RBs kept him off the field this year. Fortunately we did see enough in his brief appearances to keep us enticed.

Kevin Faulk will see the field because he can be trusted to field a punt, pick up a blitz, and catch the ball, but I don't think we'll see much of him

I think BB will trust Ridley, and he'll get his 10-15 touches.

I wish Woody would get more of a chance to run the ball on a regular basis in non-short yardage situations. I also hope Brady uses his RBs more in the passing game. All of them catch the ball well, yet we NEVER hear about them when the passing attack is mentioned

I hope BJGE is limited to short yardage and GL work.

I know you and a few other posters don't like BJGE, but I actually would want to see him in the play-actions that we used very successfully against the Ravens. Brady was 7-9, 112 yards in PA in the '10 game.

 

[TheBostonStraggler]

You covered a lot in your breakdown, there are a couple of points I really agree with.

#1) Cornerbacks - Flacco is inconsistent but he has a gun and the deep sideline passes are one his best throws. The Patriots must contain the big plays, let Flacco make 5-7 throws for a score. No quick strikes.

#2) Ngata is a beast of all beasts, I am curious how Connolly and a 70% Mankins hold up against him. The Patriots quick pace should wear him down. In 2009 each mistake turned into a turnover. The Ravens will make some plays, a key for the Patriots will be to hold onto the ball. Better to have a 3rd and 18 then a fumble or interception. A punt is not a bad thing, turnovers will be lethal.

Regarding #1 -
The key to victory for the Patriots is Joe Flacco throwing the ball, long and/or short. That is backed up by the fact that since Nov 20: Highest total passing game is 227 yards, threw for 200+ yards only twice, 7td to 4int ratio, and his YPA during that span is well below 7 (and these unimpressive stats were against mostly average defenses). Ultimately the Patriots best chance of success is Flacco havinf to throw it 40+ times. And if he is able to go out and on the strength of his arm torch the Patriot defense with long scoring drives ending in TDs? The Patriots were unlikely to win this game no matter what they did on defense (and let the off season rancor about fixing the Patriot secondary begin). Bottom line: If Rice has a successful day the Patriots have a less than 50/50 chance of winning. If Flacco has to go out and throw it markedly more often than not, the Patriots have a better than 50/50 chance at victory.

Regarding #2 -
I suspect the Ravens will, most of the game, play man coverage while rushing only 4 (mix in a 5 man rush every so often). They may not always get to Brady super quick but they will assume their front 4 will get to him quicker than his ability to find an open receiver (and force errors). IMHO, barring turnovers, the game comes down to the question of the Patriot OL. The chance of a Patriot victory is well above 50/50 if the OL plays as well as they did against Denver.
And regarding Ngata, while sacks don't always tell the story, in the last 6 games he hasn't had a sack or tackle for a loss. In the last 6 games Vince Wilfork has 2.5 sacks and 3 tackles for a loss. Am I wrong to think your fear of Ngata is too much?

 

[SVN]

Regarding #1 -
The key to victory for the Patriots is Joe Flacco throwing the ball, long and/or short. That is backed up by the fact that since Nov 20: Highest total passing game is 227 yards, threw for 200+ yards only twice, 7td to 4int ratio, and his YPA during that span is well below 7 (and these unimpressive stats were against mostly average defenses). Ultimately the Patriots best chance of success is Flacco havinf to throw it 40+ times. And if he is able to go out and on the strength of his arm torch the Patriot defense with long scoring drives ending in TDs? The Patriots were unlikely to win this game no matter what they did on defense (and let the off season rancor about fixing the Patriot secondary begin). Bottom line: If Rice has a successful day the Patriots have a less than 50/50 chance of winning. If Flacco has to go out and throw it markedly more often than not, the Patriots have a better than 50/50 chance at victory.

Regarding #2 -
I suspect the Ravens will, most of the game, play man coverage while rushing only 4 (mix in a 5 man rush every so often). They may not always get to Brady super quick but they will assume their front 4 will get to him quicker than his ability to find an open receiver (and force errors). IMHO, barring turnovers, the game comes down to the question of the Patriot OL. The chance of a Patriot victory is well above 50/50 if the OL plays as well as they did against Denver.
And regarding Ngata, while sacks don't always tell the story, in the last 6 games he hasn't had a sack or tackle for a loss. In the last 6 games Vince Wilfork has 2.5 sacks and 3 tackles for a loss. Am I wrong to think your fear of Ngata is too much?

I really hope we dont abandon the run if the ravens start dropping people in coverage and play 6-7 DBs.