Welcome to PatsFans.com

Some strange (and maybe worrying) news on Pats-Dolphins

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by WelshPat, Dec 4, 2009.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. WelshPat

    WelshPat Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2008
    Messages:
    826
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    The line has dropped from -5.5 to -3.5. The money was 98% on the Pats.

    Somethings up. I have looked around the internet, theres some rumour that Brady could be out with a head injury? But it wasnt listed on injury report. But on the injury report it did list 'finger'.

    Now, i'm not saying we should all think Hoyer will play, but the bookies know something.

    And another thing, Brady kinda had an off game against the Saints, now finger is on the report, is there a chance maybe like, Brady broke his finger in that game? I'm only saying this 'cos i remember the Broncos game in 08 when Cutler hit his finger on a helmet, and he stunk after that.

    Sorry if i rambled, i just thought you guys would be intrested in this.
    Last edited: Dec 4, 2009
  2. pats1

    pats1 Moderator PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    May 28, 2005
    Messages:
    13,261
    Likes Received:
    13
    Ratings:
    +13 / 0 / -0

    http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...ead-injury-sounds-like-bs.html?highlight=head
  3. WelshPat

    WelshPat Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2008
    Messages:
    826
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Sorry i didn't see that, but still, maybe this finger is something to be concerned about?
  4. pats1

    pats1 Moderator PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    May 28, 2005
    Messages:
    13,261
    Likes Received:
    13
    Ratings:
    +13 / 0 / -0

    Maybe you're reading too much into the line. ;)
  5. WelshPat

    WelshPat Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2008
    Messages:
    826
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Maybe, it just doesn't make any sense... i doubt its anything bad, something to keep our eyes on i guess
  6. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2006
    Messages:
    29,766
    Likes Received:
    233
    Ratings:
    +510 / 5 / -1

    Well, it could be that the Pats got their arses handed to them on national TV and people who don't get to see either team so how badly the Pats played on Monday and figured that they would have a hangover into this Sunday's game.

    The line is based on the public betting. The Pats have been on national TV what three times this year? They barely beat the Bills, they lose to the Colts, and they get killed by the Saints. The casual bettors out there might just have the perception that the Pats may not be as good as the Dolphins (or at least not good enough to cover the spread) and think this is a sure thing.
  7. WelshPat

    WelshPat Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2008
    Messages:
    826
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    ^But thats the thing mate, 98% of public were backing the Pats, then for some reason, the line dropped 2 points, and now more people are backing the dolphins.

    The line should have got bigger, not smaller
  8. Willie55

    Willie55 Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2005
    Messages:
    2,803
    Likes Received:
    3
    Ratings:
    +3 / 0 / -0

    More people are backing the Dolphins because of the way the Pats played Monday night, plain and simple. And why would the line get bigger if more people think the Dolphins are going to win. Generally, the more likely a team is going to win the game, the higher the point spread (or lower in this case).
  9. Joker

    Joker PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2004
    Messages:
    16,579
    Likes Received:
    332
    Ratings:
    +738 / 14 / -12

    the line dropped because there's a rush of Dolphin money being layed down....don't read any Kennedy assassination theories into it...it's just simple bookie math
  10. Feep50

    Feep50 Rookie

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2007
    Messages:
    731
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    The Patriots have to win this game and convincingly......

    A loss in Miami and I can't feel good about our chances going forward.

    This is a MUST win game IMHO.......
  11. GostkowSKI

    GostkowSKI Rookie

    Joined:
    Mar 9, 2007
    Messages:
    488
    Likes Received:
    2
    Ratings:
    +2 / 0 / -0

    A lot of that comes down to the professional gamblers. For example, Vegas is much more likely to move a line based on one respected professional coming in and putting 10K on the Dolphins rather than average Joe coming in and putting 100K on the Pats.
  12. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Mar 25, 2005
    Messages:
    19,949
    Likes Received:
    29
    Ratings:
    +29 / 0 / -0

  13. WelshPat

    WelshPat Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2008
    Messages:
    826
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    I doubt that people really think the dolphins are the better team... i mean, they've lost there best player and just lost to the bills. Plus, theres a ton of trends that favour NE

    It's something to with finger being on the IR. I'm sure of it.
  14. WelshPat

    WelshPat Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 29, 2008
    Messages:
    826
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    Mate, theres no reason to act like a ****, I only mentioned that once, I'm talking about the finger on the IR.
  15. Pujo

    Pujo Rookie

    Joined:
    Dec 15, 2005
    Messages:
    6,572
    Likes Received:
    4
    Ratings:
    +4 / 0 / -0

    I'm sorry, what? Maybe I don't understand gambling, but I thought the spread was there to help keep the money 50/50. If 98% of the money was on the Pats, shouldn't the game have been taken off the board? Where would the bookies have gotten the money to pay something like that in the event that the Pats beat the spread?
  16. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2008
    Messages:
    14,190
    Likes Received:
    224
    Ratings:
    +507 / 3 / -7

    #24 Jersey

    What the big confusion is about is because there are 2 different ways to bet any game:

    1. The pointspread, which bettors are favoring the Pats, and it's not 98%, my site had the public favoring the pointspread at about 65-70% yesterday.

    2. The moneyline, which states that you have to win the game outright. In other words, forget about the spread. When a game is within a smaller pointspread margin, such as NE -3 or 3 1/2, many bettors will favor MIA to win outright because:

    A. The spread is small/close enough that it's a reality MIA could win outright

    B. No bettors would favor NE here, because they'd have to put up approximately -170 to -190 to win 100 dollars back. In other words, when you just bet the moneyline, you are foregoing the spread, meaning all you have to do is win outright. Of course it would cost way more to bet NE here, because all you have to do is win. That's why it's close to even money (-105) to give the 3 pts, but -170 (approx.) to simply win. You're putting up more money to forego the spread. Most do not take the favorite in this situation, hardly ever.

    C. More are backing MIA on the moneyline because it's a close spread, and a reality that they can win. The odds to take MIA winning outright pay a lot more of course, when you forego the spread and pick them to win outright. ALL UNDERDOGS ARE BACKED MORE BY THE PUBLIC ON THE MONEYLINE

    D. NE is dealing with the infamous "MNF" loss on the road/next game on the road rule. This states that when a team loses on the road during "MNF," then travels again on the road for the next game in a shortened week, they have approx. a 15% chance of winning. This is really helping MIA's chances of winning the game of course, and that's a big reason why the line has gone down from 5 1/2 to 3 pts. In reality, there's no good reason NE was favored by 5 1/2 in the first place, since several factors back MIA.

    So, in reality, I believe the OP is confused because more are backing NE with the spread, but more are backing MIA with the moneyline. It's an extremely common thing in almost any game, with a spread under 6 or 7. The reality is that MIA pays pretty big when you pick them to win, people figure since the spread is close, why not just take MIA and get paid a lot more.

    In the case of games like NO, and IND, when the spreads were less than 2 pts, there isn't any moneyline at all---simply because the spread is so close.
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2009
  17. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2008
    Messages:
    14,190
    Likes Received:
    224
    Ratings:
    +507 / 3 / -7

    #24 Jersey

    You understand it a lot better than you think, because you're absolutely correct.

    If the public backed NE that much, the spread would've gone up until it evened out more, since the general hope for sportsbooks/bookies is to distribute the winnings as evenly as possible--while still making money on the 5-10% 'juice' or what they charge you to make the wager.
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2009
  18. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Sep 9, 2008
    Messages:
    14,190
    Likes Received:
    224
    Ratings:
    +507 / 3 / -7

    #24 Jersey

    Besides the fact that we haven't lost 2x in a row since 2006, the Dec. BB record, and the overall NE road record in Dec., there aren't many other trends favoring NE at all.

    Considering we've split the season series 7 out of the past 9 yrs, the fact that MIA is desperate and wanting to stay alive, our overall poorer performance at MIA specifically, the fact that we lost 2 out of past 3, and the MNF road rule which I stated a couple posts ahead--MIA has a lot siding with them too. There's also the fact that we haven't won a 'real' road game yet also, that isn't exactly helping raise the line any.

    You are right in assuming people may want to lay off due to the addition of the finger on the injury report--but he's still probable, so unless he suddenly became questionable I don't think that has as much as you think to do with it. Everyone still realizes he's playing, and there hasn't been a lot of media attn. reagarding it, so I wouldn't think too many are as worried as you may think.

    EDIT: All of this talk is irrelevant anyway, since as of Sat. at 1:30 am, my site Sportsbook.com still has the Pats listed at -4 1/2.
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2009
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page

unset ($sidebar_block_show); ?>