Some random bye week thoughts

[fnordcircle]

BOB is a tool swapping QBs every game.

Yeah - his method of handling the QB position has made no sense. Commit to the guy who earned the job don't ****ing swap them out like you're bipolar or something.

 

[Oswlek]

Nitpicker alert: Sunday was 10/4... good buddy.

In fairness, tonight's game is probably going to be awful, too.

 

[rochrist]

it amazes me how many bad teams with bad QBs have their guy drop back 7 feet and stand there and pat the ball while all the receivers run 20+ yard routes. Don't any of these guys see how the Pats and Brady utilize the short game? I guess, it's just to complex for most..that's the only conclusion that makes sense I guess.

Agreed. None of them can run it, or know what to do when they're under heavy pressure. It's a testament to a) how good Brady is, and b) how good BB is.

 

[rochrist]

Yeah - his method of handling the QB position has made no sense. Commit to the guy who earned the job don't ****ing swap them out like you're bipolar or something.

The trouble is, I don't think either of them 'earned' it. Hoyer might have been microscopically better, but fundamentally, neither of them can play.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Vince isn't good.

There were many on this board who were tip-toeing around this issue -including me.

Not sure if it's the system or what but my buddies down in Houston tell me which is that Vince is slow and sucks and BB was brilliant to let him walk and the Texans stupid for picking him up.

Clearly he is not what he was and I don't think he is as bad as they say but from what little I have watched it he doesn't look good down there.

 

[patfanken]

Thanks for this thread. Finally something that has some substance, or doesn't make me angry at the league.

• Is it me or is this one of the worst seasons for football in a long while? Where are the good teams? I think there are two elite teams (Pats and Packers), a handful of second tier teams, and the rest of the league sucks. I can't believe how many bad teams there are out there. There are several divisions that are bad from top to bottom (AFC South and NFC East).

This is the biggest story of the season......and I'm afraid that it goes further than it just being part of an extended pre-season. I can't believe how badly coached and prepared teams look.....and it seems to go across the league.

And it's not about talent. There is plenty of talent. The Pats have one of the better teams in the league, but I doubt if you rated them them strictly on athletic talent, they'd be in the top 10. The Bills would be a better example of a team with greater talent than the Pats, but wouldn't beat them 2 times out of 10

Teams don't seem to be disciplined, focused, or well organized. It is mind boggling when you consider how much time, money, energy and coaching goes into getting these teams ready. Think about all the coaches each team has. Think about all the time they supposedly put in. Think about all the effort each individual player supposedly puts in each week.......and THAT's the product they are coming out with.

Want to know why the Pats win so often. It isn't because BB is playing chess while others are playing checkers. I used to think that. Now I'm starting to believe that BB is a competent guy who gets to play against MORONS What a freakin' advantage we have have almost every week. Rex Ryan has been pulling the same crap for 7 years now, and most of the rest of the country STILL think he's a great HC AND a defensive genius, who has Bellichick's number. It's a league where Jeff Fisher STILL has a job. etc, etc, etc, AND etc.

• What happened to the field goal kicking? How many missed chip shots were missed this past week (some in domes)? Is moving the extra point back really screwing with the kickers' head that much? There was at least three games that were lost because of missed easy field goals (Pittsburg losing to Baltimore, Jags losing to Indy, and Vikes losing to Denver). The Saints could have lost because of a missed easy field goal too.

It's a pretty interesting phenomenon. We've come to an age where 50 yd FG's are EXPECTED to be made. An age where you are lucky to see one KO return per game (one of the most exciting plays in the game).....and that wouldn't improve if you moved the ball back to where it was years ago. Kickers today are simply better now. They are so good that we forgot just how iffy that play used to be. What are most kickers kicking at now days, 85%? There was once a time in the league that FG kicking beyond 40 yds was a 50-50 thing

I wonder if FG kicking is getting worse, or are our expectations just so wildly out of proportions. EVERY time they miss we are shocked, especially after watching Gotkowski and Vineteri for the last 20 years up close.

• What happened to the Texans? I never thought they would be a legitimate contender, but thought they would give Indy a run for the division. And as bad as Indy is right now, I still don't see the Texans contending for the division. The most surprising thing is their defense absolutely sucks.

Great question. I thought that with all BOB's experience here, plus having guys like Romeo and Vrable, he'd do a great job down there. He did a very good job at Penn State, so it's surprising how bad they've been. I guess it brings us to a couple of truisms. You HAVE to have at least a "good" QB to win in this league. Having the best defensive player in the league DOES NOT buy you many wins.

No matter how many times the mediots talk about individual players, it is never going to be about individual players in the game of football. The Texans just are another team who has as many great athletic talents as any other team, yet they still can't seem to win on a regular basis

 

[patfanken]

• I still am not sold on the Jets or Broncos or that their defenses are as good as they look right now. I think the Jets might be the second best team in the AFC East, but they are still a 7-8 win team. I think both of their defense and the Broncos defense have benefitted from facing miserable offenses. Neither defense has faced a decent QB (at least by this year's standards). I think the Broncos will still most likely win the West because their division sucks, but I don't think their defense can carry them in the playoffs. And I think the fast pace of the Phillips' defense will end up wearing some of their key players out like Ware and Talib who have long histories of falling apart as the season goes along.

I don't think the Jets or the Broncos are any better than the Bills are on defense, and we saw how badly the Pats dismantled them and still left points on the board with a flawed OL. It won't be easy to beat those defenses. They ARE very good. However I believe that the Pats have one of 2 QB's in the entire league that can take apart those quality defenses. It's just the way the rules are set up. Good offense will ALWAYS beat a good defense. Unfortunately (or fortunately, I'm not sure) there are only 2 offenses in the league that are consistently good every week.

• Speaking of the Broncos, their offense is miserable. I am convinced the only reason Manning came back is because he had the total yardage record in sight (it was something like 2,000 yards away at the start of the season which may take him the entire season to get). He is a shell of himself and it is still early October. Their running game sucks too.

Manning has gotten away with over a half dozen picks that could have gone against him, and there have been another half dozen of his receptions each game that have been his receivers simply taking the ball away from the defender on an individual basis. Manning has been so bad this year, I'm am beginning to start to admire his game. This is what we saw back in 2008 from Pennington. They might be 4-0, but they aren't a team I feared like I did in previous years.

Their defense is good enough to beat you on a given day, and Manning is still has enough talent around him and is good enough to beat you on a give day. But so can ANY team in the league, and those days are no longer days you can expect.

• I am convinced that Rex Ryan took the Bills' job because he is obsessed with Belichick and the Pats. His goal is to beat the Pats for the division as much as it is to win the Super Bowl. He is just a bad fit for the Bills because unlike for the Jets, he doesn't have enough veteran leadership to help channel his do whatever you want style into solid production rather than stupid, costly penalties. Of course he and the fans blame the refs and their biases. I wonder if the head ref for yesterday's game works for the company that helped to build MET Life stadium.

  I agree that he must be obsessed with BB, but I think your comment about his lack of "leadership" is part of the problem is wrong. I think he has plenty of leadership on the team, but developing it is part of Rex's problem. His charisma burns too bright for anyone else but Rex to shine through. I don't think it's possible for anyone else's personality to coexist with his.

BB is just the opposite. His LACK of ego makes the development of other leadership to flourish on his teams. It works to the point that when he doesn't have good leadership like in 2009, it becomes clear to him and everyone else. Rex has probably thought he had great leadership on his teams every year he's been a HC.

• There are next to no young great QBs in this league. In five years, we are likely to be back in the 90s where there is mostly mediocre QB play. Manning is done. Brady only has a handful of years left. Same with Brees and Roethlisberger. Who are going to replace them? Bridgewater? Bortles? Other than Luck (who is overrated) there hasn't been a great QB drafted in 5-8 years.

That is ANOTHER of the league's problems, and it is all their own fault. Tyron Taylor is the perfect example. He didn't have a great game vs the Giants, but he didn't have a bad one either. He is what can happen if you give a QB 4 or 5 years to develop instead of putting them out there right away and just hope they develop. I've watched him stay in the pocket, keep his eyes downfield, move with purpose, and I think he's played as well as most QB's and is likely to continue to get better......IF they get the time to progress.....but they won't give them that time and like you said, we are watching the best of the league's QB's grow old in front of us.

• I saw the Dolphins collapse coming. Everyone gushed over the Suh signing and ignored that they gutted this team. They lost most of their receiving corp and some solid starters on defense. And people were just focusing on how Suh would change their entire defense and how Tannehill will keep on getting better and better forever. I never saw it. I didn't think they would be this bad, but I thought they would be worse than last year.

I didn't think that the Dolphins' defense was going to be all that good, simply because they gave up as much as they gained this off season. However I DID think the offense would continue to improve.....and THAT clearly didn't come close to happening.

Always sad to see a new HC come into the division. You never can tell when they will finally get another good one. I'm afraid the Jets might have just lucked into a quality leader. I'd hate to think the Dolphins might finally get one too.

 

[RelocatedPatFan]

Good offense will ALWAYS beat a good defense.

Fully agree with what you say; I wanted to point out that good defenses can work in the playoffs because refs call those games differently. A Good defense can get better if they play to the Refs (i.e. they can get away with more/refs just let them play...mostly)

Manning has gotten away with over a half dozen picks that could have gone against him, and there have been another half dozen of his receptions each game that have been his receivers simply taking the ball away from the defender on an individual basis. Manning has been so bad this year, I'm am beginning to start to admire his game. This is what we saw back in 2008 from Pennington. They might be 4-0, but they aren't a team I feared like I did in previous years.

It does appear that he is done, but let's see if he progresses or regresses by week 12/13. I suspect he'll get weaker as the season wears on and that might get ugly unless the team adapts to his limitations.

The Bronco's do seem to get their fair share of non-calls for OPI (though, I'd need to see stats to see if it is confirmation bias or true).

 

[aluminum seats]

Some things that I thought about this weekend:

• Is it me or is this one of the worst seasons for football in a long while? Where are the good teams? I think there are two elite teams (Pats and Packers), a handful of second tier teams, and the rest of the league sucks. I can't believe how many bad teams there are out there. There are several divisions that are bad from top to bottom (AFC South and NFC East).
• What happened to the field goal kicking? How many missed chip shots were missed this past week (some in domes)? Is moving the extra point back really screwing with the kickers' head that much? There was at least three games that were lost because of missed easy field goals (Pittsburg losing to Baltimore, Jags losing to Indy, and Vikes losing to Denver). The Saints could have lost because of a missed easy field goal too.
• What happened to the Texans? I never thought they would be a legitimate contender, but thought they would give Indy a run for the division. And as bad as Indy is right now, I still don't see the Texans contending for the division. The most surprising thing is their defense absolutely sucks.
• I still am not sold on the Jets or Broncos or that their defenses are as good as they look right now. I think the Jets might be the second best team in the AFC East, but they are still a 7-8 win team. I think both of their defense and the Broncos defense have benefitted from facing miserable offenses. Neither defense has faced a decent QB (at least by this year's standards). I think the Broncos will still most likely win the West because their division sucks, but I don't think their defense can carry them in the playoffs. And I think the fast pace of the Phillips' defense will end up wearing some of their key players out like Ware and Talib who have long histories of falling apart as the season goes along.
• Speaking of the Broncos, their offense is miserable. I am convinced the only reason Manning came back is because he had the total yardage record in sight (it was something like 2,000 yards away at the start of the season which may take him the entire season to get). He is a shell of himself and it is still early October. Their running game sucks too.
• I am convinced that Rex Ryan took the Bills' job because he is obsessed with Belichick and the Pats. His goal is to beat the Pats for the division as much as it is to win the Super Bowl. He is just a bad fit for the Bills because unlike for the Jets, he doesn't have enough veteran leadership to help channel his do whatever you want style into solid production rather than stupid, costly penalties. Of course he and the fans blame the refs and their biases. I wonder if the head ref for yesterday's game works for the company that helped to build MET Life stadium.
• There are next to no young great QBs in this league. In five years, we are likely to be back in the 90s where there is mostly mediocre QB play. Manning is done. Brady only has a handful of years left. Same with Brees and Roethlisberger. Who are going to replace them? Bridgewater? Bortles? Other than Luck (who is overrated) there hasn't been a great QB drafted in 5-8 years.
• I saw the Dolphins collapse coming. Everyone gushed over the Suh signing and ignored that they gutted this team. They lost most of their receiving corp and some solid starters on defense. And people were just focusing on how Suh would change their entire defense and how Tannehill will keep on getting better and better forever. I never saw it. I didn't think they would be this bad, but I thought they would be worse than last year.

Some good food for thought here, thanks for posting. A couple of responses to yours and one additional unrelated thought I can't figure out where else to put:

--Agreed on the level of play, it's been pretty awful. To try and be fair about it, you could make the argument that the first four games is really the new preseason, because of the restrictions coaches face now. The Pats have hit the ground running, but of course we all remember last year. Play should improve.

--I think I disagree with your knock on the Jets. The defense is legitimately pretty decent, I'd say. They were lacking corners, but obviously got at least one pretty good one. They don't have a quarterback, which tends to be kind of important in this league.

--Had the same thought about Manning, which feels like an "opposing fan" kind of thing, but really: he's going for arguably the biggest QB record there is, and why else would he come back? Even he's got to know he's not winning a Super Bowl this year.

--Disagree on why Rex took the job. I think he would take any job.

Now the other thing. Actually, two things. First, Malcolm Brown. It's not that I don't think he'll help this year, but for some reason he strikes me as one of those "huge leaps in year 2" guys. I think we'll really be happy to have him next year.

But the other thing was, that didn't feel quite thread worthy--I was thinking about onside kicks the other day, after seeing this sort of old clip:

http://nesn.com/2014/10/texas-high-..._medium=referral&utm_campaign=crowdignite.com

Now, we know Bill Belichick thinks through everything, right? Expected onside kicks have a success rate of about 9% I think, meaning they fail more than 90% of the time. The Pats pretty much never have to bother with them, because they're winning. I think the last one they tried was 2013 against Cleveland, and that worked, because they're the Patriots. But is the usual kick the best way to go? I just feel like maybe there's room for innovation there, to at least move the probability past 9%. The usual attempts just feel so lame. Kick it as high as possible to a predetermined spot? I dunno.

Bye week musings...

 

[Oswlek]

Manning has gotten away with over a half dozen picks that could have gone against him

Did you see the pick he threw to get Minny back in the game just before half-time? It was so terrible that the undercutting LB actually overran it and had to reach back. Picking off Manning is like catching a knuckleballer.

That is ANOTHER of the league's problems, and it is all their own fault. Tyron Taylor is the perfect example.

I agree, but I don't think Taylor is a good example since this is actually his 5th year in the league.

 

[Pats2000]

Some things that I thought about this weekend:

• Is it me or is this one of the worst seasons for football in a long while? Where are the good teams? I think there are two elite teams (Pats and Packers), a handful of second tier teams, and the rest of the league sucks. I can't believe how many bad teams there are out there. There are several divisions that are bad from top to bottom (AFC South and NFC East).
• What happened to the field goal kicking? How many missed chip shots were missed this past week (some in domes)? Is moving the extra point back really screwing with the kickers' head that much? There was at least three games that were lost because of missed easy field goals (Pittsburg losing to Baltimore, Jags losing to Indy, and Vikes losing to Denver). The Saints could have lost because of a missed easy field goal too.
• What happened to the Texans? I never thought they would be a legitimate contender, but thought they would give Indy a run for the division. And as bad as Indy is right now, I still don't see the Texans contending for the division. The most surprising thing is their defense absolutely sucks.
• I still am not sold on the Jets or Broncos or that their defenses are as good as they look right now. I think the Jets might be the second best team in the AFC East, but they are still a 7-8 win team. I think both of their defense and the Broncos defense have benefitted from facing miserable offenses. Neither defense has faced a decent QB (at least by this year's standards). I think the Broncos will still most likely win the West because their division sucks, but I don't think their defense can carry them in the playoffs. And I think the fast pace of the Phillips' defense will end up wearing some of their key players out like Ware and Talib who have long histories of falling apart as the season goes along.
• Speaking of the Broncos, their offense is miserable. I am convinced the only reason Manning came back is because he had the total yardage record in sight (it was something like 2,000 yards away at the start of the season which may take him the entire season to get). He is a shell of himself and it is still early October. Their running game sucks too.
• I am convinced that Rex Ryan took the Bills' job because he is obsessed with Belichick and the Pats. His goal is to beat the Pats for the division as much as it is to win the Super Bowl. He is just a bad fit for the Bills because unlike for the Jets, he doesn't have enough veteran leadership to help channel his do whatever you want style into solid production rather than stupid, costly penalties. Of course he and the fans blame the refs and their biases. I wonder if the head ref for yesterday's game works for the company that helped to build MET Life stadium.
• There are next to no young great QBs in this league. In five years, we are likely to be back in the 90s where there is mostly mediocre QB play. Manning is done. Brady only has a handful of years left. Same with Brees and Roethlisberger. Who are going to replace them? Bridgewater? Bortles? Other than Luck (who is overrated) there hasn't been a great QB drafted in 5-8 years.
• I saw the Dolphins collapse coming. Everyone gushed over the Suh signing and ignored that they gutted this team. They lost most of their receiving corp and some solid starters on defense. And people were just focusing on how Suh would change their entire defense and how Tannehill will keep on getting better and better forever. I never saw it. I didn't think they would be this bad, but I thought they would be worse than last year.

Tannehil doesn't have the ability to roll protections correctly, he was getting free runners at him all day long in his last couple of games.

 

[pheenix11]

I think Derek Carr has some potential as a young QB. Of course he's stuck in Oakland which is a career killer for anyone.

 

[Betterthanmost]

Listening to BB on D&H, I got a feeling that if Bostic was available, BB might have taken him over Collins.
He talked about going to Florida and working him out and it sounded like he really loved the kid. Thank you Bears.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

Now, we know Bill Belichick thinks through everything, right? Expected onside kicks have a success rate of about 9% I think, meaning they fail more than 90% of the time. The Pats pretty much never have to bother with them, because they're winning. I think the last one they tried was 2013 against Cleveland, and that worked, because they're the Patriots. But is the usual kick the best way to go? I just feel like maybe there's room for innovation there, to at least move the probability past 9%. The usual attempts just feel so lame. Kick it as high as possible to a predetermined spot? I dunno.

I was very disappointed in BB in the 2nd quarter of the Bills game when the Bills committed a dead ball unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on a NE extra point, which was enforced on the kickoff. That put the point of the kickoff at the 50.

I really, really wanted BB to do a surprise onsides kick there. Instead, he had Ghost blast it out of the endzone.

Pretty much the worst case on an onsides kick from the 50 is that the Bills get it at their own 40. The touchback gives them the ball at their own 20. I thought the chance of another NE possession right after a NE TD -- and on a short field at that -- was well worth gambling 20 yards for, especially given how well the NE offense was playing at that point.

I had the same feeling in that 2007 Ravens game after Bart Scott blew a gasket after the NE go-ahead TD. IIRC, NE was kicking off from the Baltimore 35. BB kicked it out of the endzone giving BAL the ball at their own 20. If he had tried an onsides kick either NE keeps the ball or BAL gets it on their own 25. Only a 5 yard difference. And if NE had recovered they could have iced the game right there.

 

[fnordcircle]

The trouble is, I don't think either of them 'earned' it. Hoyer might have been microscopically better, but fundamentally, neither of them can play.

In the BOB's eyes Hoyer earned it enough to be named the starter for game one. So you go with that guy, get him all the reps, get him all the game experience and see what you've got. Game 4 of the season is just too early to be dealing with this "are you going back to the guy you named starter for game 1" stuff, imo. Continuity matters.

 

[meatface]

I never got why people thought the Texans would be good, everything broke right for them last year and they went 9-7, they needed watt to be amazing for that to happen and now they look like crap. Passing on lil TB is going to haunt that franchise for a while

 

[supafly]

In the BOB's eyes Hoyer earned it enough to be named the starter for game one. So you go with that guy, get him all the reps, get him all the game experience and see what you've got. Game 4 of the season is just too early to be dealing with this "are you going back to the guy you named starter for game 1" stuff, imo. Continuity matters.

I'm not sure if I'm agreeing or disagreeing with you, or maybe even a little of both, but I think it's fairly obvious that Ryan Mallett is not the answer.

In my opinion, HOU screwed up by having two mediocre choices at the team's most important position.

 

[nabwong]

Carr in Oakland is a sleeper. He has cooper which helps a lot. Mariota has potential. Wilson is above average. If bridgewater can learn to get rid of the ball quicker, he could be good. Head coaches need to learn to protect their young QBs. Brady was lucky in that the team had a great defense. He wasn't asked to do too much early.

 

[QuantumMechanic]

In the BOB's eyes

As a big Twin Peaks fan it is always rather weird for me to see Bill O'Brien abbreviated as BOB...

(Tries to imagine BOB running a football team... )

 

[aluminum seats]

I was very disappointed in BB in the 2nd quarter of the Bills game when the Bills committed a dead ball unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on a NE extra point, which was enforced on the kickoff. That put the point of the kickoff at the 50.

I really, really wanted BB to do a surprise onsides kick there. Instead, he had Ghost blast it out of the endzone.

Pretty much the worst case on an onsides kick from the 50 is that the Bills get it at their own 40. The touchback gives them the ball at their own 20. I thought the chance of another NE possession right after a NE TD -- and on a short field at that -- was well worth gambling 20 yards for, especially given how well the NE offense was playing at that point.

I had the same feeling in that 2007 Ravens game after Bart Scott blew a gasket after the NE go-ahead TD. IIRC, NE was kicking off from the Baltimore 35. BB kicked it out of the endzone giving BAL the ball at their own 20. If he had tried an onsides kick either NE keeps the ball or BAL gets it on their own 25. Only a 5 yard difference. And if NE had recovered they could have iced the game right there.

Yeah, I agree it always seems like a wasted opportunity to blast those kinds of kicks into the stands. Even if you don't kick an onsides kick, why not kick it high and let your coverage teams pin 'em deep? Seems overly conservative to settle for the 20.

But in general it feels like an area in need of creativity. Those kicks should at least turn into scrums where the success rate is, what, 25%? The standard onside kick almost always fails. Of course, if the Pats did what that high school team did, it would be clearly deceptive, so...