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OK, here are some ramblings thoughts about my expectations of Pats/Bolts.
The easiset: Brady will be awesome. Specifically, I expect a lot of big plays in the passing game. We have switched from game to game between efficient and explosive in the passing game. I think this one will be explosive. (By the way, watching some of the replay of last years po game in SD, it was unbelievable the difference in our passing game. Compared to this year, it looked like Brady was trying to get it done with Division 2 college players as receivers. There were not an awful lot of plays out there for him to make, but he made them. I saw about 25 pass plays in the part I watched, and I don't think more than 3 of them had receivers as open as they are on our average pass play this year) How the game goes has so much to do with stats, but the number I can most confidently predict is yards per attempt. If we throw an awful lot (meaning we include more short passes than if we run more) I'd expect to see about 8+ ypa, but if we are balanced, Id expect 10+. I see lots of intermediate (12-18 yard) throws, and a good amount of deep balls.
I expect Maroney to to be a factor. Again how the game goes will dictate this. If we run a lot, he will get a lot of tough yards, and move the chains, and if we are throwing, he will break some bigs plays. I'd guess there are 2 distinct possiblities. Something like 15 rushes for 80 yards or 28 for 100. The gameplan and how the game develops would determine which, but as I see it either would be an equally good day for Maroney, for different reasons.
Moss will dominate. I expect the Chargers to be focussed more on eliminating Welker than Moss. Take away the automatic pitch and catch and drive right down the field and make them beat you with lower percentage (theoretically) plays.
I see Rodney extending his playoff Int streak.
I think Vrabel will be dominating in the pass rush. (This is tough prediction, because while Vrabel is often dominant when rushing, many games the gameplan does not have him rushing a lot)
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As an aside, I think Mike Vrabel is by FAR the most underrated Pat, and is one of the biggest reasons for this teams success. Vrabel simply does everything a LB does, equally well, as well as almost anyone, and equally as often. Depending on the opponent, Vrabel may control the game with his pass rushing or almost never rush, and fanstastic in pass coverage.
Here is the litmus test to me:
1) How many times have you seen Vrabel be disruptive as a pass rusher (a ton)
2) How many times have you seen an opponent break a big run off of our outside the T on Vrabel side (I cant remember the last one)
3) How many times have you seen passes completed to the man Vrabel was covering (and although it goes unoticed he is in coverage a lot) I can hardly remember any
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Our OL will, again, be awesome. I expect some early pressure, maybe even a sack or 2, but that will be it. They may see some thigns they werent expecting early, but beyond that any sacks will be coverage sacks.
Shawne Merriman at some point will make a play. Ultimately that play will have NO impact on the outcome of the game, but when he makes the play, he will respond as if he just single-handedly won the SB.
I think that we target the ILBs of the Chargers. Expect runs between the Ts, probalby a lot of draws as well, and a lot of passing into the ILB zones, resulting in runs after the catch.
We will force at least 2 fumbles. I see one either in sts, or by a WR, and at least one by whichever QB they have in there.
The Chargers will move the ball reasonbly well. They will make some plays in the passing game up the field, inside the numbers. Oru defensive gameplan will not be designed to sell out for 3 and outs. Early we will take away the run, and give them opportunities in the passing game, but as the game wears on and we are ahead, we will clamp them down, resulting in Int opportunites, sacks, and a flustered Rivers, if he stays around, or Volek forcing throws, if he is in.
The biggest concern IMO with the SD offense is the dump offs and screens to the RBs. I'm not concerned with the running game, because for them to be effective running it, they will have to throw to sustain drives, and playing from ahead, we wont be too concern with them making some first downs on the ground and eating up the clock. I think the dump offs and screens to the RBs will be a huge focus of the gameplan and this weeks practices. They are good at it, so can still make plays if we defend it but they create missed tackles, but the only way they will hurt us with that part of the game is if we do miss tackles.
I see a HUGE game coming from Seymour. I see a huge game from Moss.
I see a reasonably close game throughout the first half, and towards the end of the first half we will extend a lead. In the second half they will hang close, as we play conservative D from ahead, in respect of their weapons and in order to make the clock our friend. Then I see Brady going for the throat, extending the lead and putting it out of reach by the early 4th. SD may score after this to make the final score a little closer, but by the 12 minute mark of the 4th quarter, it will be realistically over.
Final score:
Pats 38 Chargers 20
The easiset: Brady will be awesome. Specifically, I expect a lot of big plays in the passing game. We have switched from game to game between efficient and explosive in the passing game. I think this one will be explosive. (By the way, watching some of the replay of last years po game in SD, it was unbelievable the difference in our passing game. Compared to this year, it looked like Brady was trying to get it done with Division 2 college players as receivers. There were not an awful lot of plays out there for him to make, but he made them. I saw about 25 pass plays in the part I watched, and I don't think more than 3 of them had receivers as open as they are on our average pass play this year) How the game goes has so much to do with stats, but the number I can most confidently predict is yards per attempt. If we throw an awful lot (meaning we include more short passes than if we run more) I'd expect to see about 8+ ypa, but if we are balanced, Id expect 10+. I see lots of intermediate (12-18 yard) throws, and a good amount of deep balls.
I expect Maroney to to be a factor. Again how the game goes will dictate this. If we run a lot, he will get a lot of tough yards, and move the chains, and if we are throwing, he will break some bigs plays. I'd guess there are 2 distinct possiblities. Something like 15 rushes for 80 yards or 28 for 100. The gameplan and how the game develops would determine which, but as I see it either would be an equally good day for Maroney, for different reasons.
Moss will dominate. I expect the Chargers to be focussed more on eliminating Welker than Moss. Take away the automatic pitch and catch and drive right down the field and make them beat you with lower percentage (theoretically) plays.
I see Rodney extending his playoff Int streak.
I think Vrabel will be dominating in the pass rush. (This is tough prediction, because while Vrabel is often dominant when rushing, many games the gameplan does not have him rushing a lot)
_________________________________________________________________
As an aside, I think Mike Vrabel is by FAR the most underrated Pat, and is one of the biggest reasons for this teams success. Vrabel simply does everything a LB does, equally well, as well as almost anyone, and equally as often. Depending on the opponent, Vrabel may control the game with his pass rushing or almost never rush, and fanstastic in pass coverage.
Here is the litmus test to me:
1) How many times have you seen Vrabel be disruptive as a pass rusher (a ton)
2) How many times have you seen an opponent break a big run off of our outside the T on Vrabel side (I cant remember the last one)
3) How many times have you seen passes completed to the man Vrabel was covering (and although it goes unoticed he is in coverage a lot) I can hardly remember any
_________________________________________________________________
Our OL will, again, be awesome. I expect some early pressure, maybe even a sack or 2, but that will be it. They may see some thigns they werent expecting early, but beyond that any sacks will be coverage sacks.
Shawne Merriman at some point will make a play. Ultimately that play will have NO impact on the outcome of the game, but when he makes the play, he will respond as if he just single-handedly won the SB.
I think that we target the ILBs of the Chargers. Expect runs between the Ts, probalby a lot of draws as well, and a lot of passing into the ILB zones, resulting in runs after the catch.
We will force at least 2 fumbles. I see one either in sts, or by a WR, and at least one by whichever QB they have in there.
The Chargers will move the ball reasonbly well. They will make some plays in the passing game up the field, inside the numbers. Oru defensive gameplan will not be designed to sell out for 3 and outs. Early we will take away the run, and give them opportunities in the passing game, but as the game wears on and we are ahead, we will clamp them down, resulting in Int opportunites, sacks, and a flustered Rivers, if he stays around, or Volek forcing throws, if he is in.
The biggest concern IMO with the SD offense is the dump offs and screens to the RBs. I'm not concerned with the running game, because for them to be effective running it, they will have to throw to sustain drives, and playing from ahead, we wont be too concern with them making some first downs on the ground and eating up the clock. I think the dump offs and screens to the RBs will be a huge focus of the gameplan and this weeks practices. They are good at it, so can still make plays if we defend it but they create missed tackles, but the only way they will hurt us with that part of the game is if we do miss tackles.
I see a HUGE game coming from Seymour. I see a huge game from Moss.
I see a reasonably close game throughout the first half, and towards the end of the first half we will extend a lead. In the second half they will hang close, as we play conservative D from ahead, in respect of their weapons and in order to make the clock our friend. Then I see Brady going for the throat, extending the lead and putting it out of reach by the early 4th. SD may score after this to make the final score a little closer, but by the 12 minute mark of the 4th quarter, it will be realistically over.
Final score:
Pats 38 Chargers 20