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Some Perspective on Samuel

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by AndyJohnson, Jun 9, 2007.

  1. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Threatened holdouts in the NFL are common, actual holdouts rare.
    Under the franchise tag Samuel will make approximately 485,000 per week.

    So far in his career combined, he has earned 1.75million.

    When he says he will hold out the first 10 games (because he must play 6 to have the year credited) he will lose just under 3 times what he has earned in his life.

    By the way, what is somewhat ignorant in his approach is that if he plays under the tag, then signs here or elsewhere next year, he will make more money in the 2 combined years than under any other scenario. In other words, he is getting almost 8 mill SALARY. He will not see 8 mill SALARY in a year for at least the first 3-4 years even on a contract that averages 10mill a year (because the signing bonus is up front and the salaries start low and grow). In essence by ACCEPTING THE REALITY that if he wants to be a free agent and not agree to a deal with the Pats, playing under the tag (even if its 2 years) only postpones his signing bonus, and ultimately earns him more money overall. Additionally, contracts escalate so the sb he would get in 08 or 09 is likely higher than in 07.
    The risk Samuel takes is if he were to have a career ending injury. But heres the reality of that. Lets say he would get a 10mill sb and 3mill salary this year. Where is the real injury protection? 13 mill vs 8 mill for a guy who has earned 1.75 mil in his life.
    It is a poor decision for Samuel to walk away from 8mill today, because he thinks it should be 13, and be willing to get nothing this year so he can get that 13 next year.
    When your lifetime earnings are 1.75mill and there is 8mill on the table, you may gripe that you want more, but you do what your boss tells you to when it comes down to getting or not getting that 485,000 weekly check.
  2. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    All he has to do is get an insurance policy on a major injury and your two year scenario works fine. Unfortunately they all seem to let the mind games of respect and comparisons to other players - and with Samuel getting a 9 on the Wunderlich, when he starts thinking, bad things happen ;)
  3. captain stone

    captain stone Rookie

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    That's why I would be surprised if Samuel decides to hold out; the $$ he would lose, per game, would equal his average annual salary for his first 4 years in the league. I wouldn't do it, anyway.

    Does this likely mean that it will all come down to: who blinks first?
  4. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    It seems like a huge issue in the NFL is that these guys look at their rookie contract as an insult if they turn into good players. Its easy to explain why it is, but after 4 years in the league playing at a high level and having made only 1.75 mill total, when mediocre free agents get 5mill signing bonusses, they all of a sudden turn it into being disrespected for having played well for such relatively little money. It seems to be hitting us harder than most teams because we draft very well (or you could at least say we hit big on some later picks).
    I wonder if the NFL should look at drastically increasing the rookie cap pool to overcome what could end up being a severe problem. To do so they would have to make accomodations for busts. For example, raise the rookie cap significantly (you'd almost have to slot contracts because this happens with guys in rounds 2, 3 and 4 mostly, since 1st rounders are all paid well, and 5th and beyond rarely turn into highly vauable guys) but give the team a cap out that if a player is cut during his rookie contract, the unamortized signing bonus doesnt count vs the cap. There is still cash risk, but not cap risk, and that way, there isnt such a wide divide between what 2nd-4th round players who start and play well earn vs other starters who were drafted in round 1 or are outside their rookie deal.
  5. MrBigglesWorth

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    mediocre free agents, Asante, and most everyone has to put in their time before getting that big contract. it's really asante's fault for not being drafted high, maybe he should have picked a better college or marketed himself better or picked a college that highlighted his talents.

    much like it takes 4-5 years to get their first big contract, it takes 3-4 yrs of college to buold your stock to get the big rookie contract. so if he's a whiner then he should have made it so he was drafted higher.
  6. BelichickFan

    BelichickFan B.O. = Fugazi PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I think they should significantly lower rookie salaries but have some kind of ERFA after 2 years with much higher minimums. Maybe a #1 pick would max out at $1M his first year but after two years there's a team option (thus, ERFA) in which any player after two years (#1 pick or undrafted) can get to, whatever, $5M or so. Then higher picks get more money the first two years but they don't get huge money until they're proven. Bust after the two years ? Team doesn't pick up the option and the player heads off to some minimum wage job.
  7. hwc

    hwc Rookie

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    Samuel could have improved his rookie contract at any time by negotiating a long-term extension with the Patriots. Of course, to gain that benefit, he would have to negotiate a deal that is more attractive to the Pats than trying to sign him in a bidding war as an unrestricted free agent.
  8. fgssand

    fgssand PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    OK..maybe the system needs to be tweaked or overhauled to take care of the injustice when a lower drafted players excels and far outplays his rookie deal.

    However, this is NOT the fault of the Patriots, we play by the rules and that is the way things were agreed to by the players union.

    It irks me to no end when Asante (and players like him) make it personal and attack the team that really helped to make the player what they have become. This is especially true with New England playing with this group of players, coaches and entire environment dedicated to winning and doing things right.

    Sign the Franchise Asante, play your heart out and you'll pocket 7.8MM and I am sure will get your big contract next year (not from us though - we need our cap money for Warren & others).
  9. PatsFan37

    PatsFan37 Rookie

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    Ten characters.
  10. DarrylS

    DarrylS PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Following up on FGSSAND what does the player owe the organization?? Since he has come to NE he has been "coached up" and the d plays to the strength of the players.. if he went to a dysfunctional team he might languish and not have achieved what he achieved here. There is nothing empirical here, as employees we all have had experiences where the company has gotten the best out of us and times when they go the worse. When the got the best I was indebted, when the got the worse I was a sore... I know it is about the money, but do not understand the childish behavior of more, more, more.. I know it is the system, but from my pea brain I think loyalty to the organization is paramount particular if they made me a better employee and increased my value.
  11. mac

    mac Rookie

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    What happens is the following: after a few years of getting their bodies beat up, some players begin to see the shortness of a football career and begin to take steps to protect their investment: their bodies. At the same time, players lose their desire to play the game. The game becomes purely business. If (unlikely) Samuel misses ten games, he is still protecting his investment; in other words, his body is not getting beat up. Branch became a protect-the-investment guy. On the current Pats, Seymour is a protect-the-investment guy.
  12. Triumph

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    As a fan I dont like it, but Samuel is doing the right thing for himself. The time is now to hash out a new deal. All that matters is signing bonus or guaranteed money.

    IMO,Samuel has paid his dues and fulfilled his contract. I'm all for a fair new contract, but just not one like Clements got. If I'm reading that correctly, he gets 20 Mil guaranteed in the first 2 years. Assuming of course, he doesnt pull a Ricky Williams.
  13. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Its all well and good to say what they should think, but reality is they don't.
    They guy who is a 3rd or 4th round pick and becomes a star player during his rookie contract is not going to say, "Oh well, I should have done something to get drafted higher, that guy who is backing me up really did deserve more money, because, you know, those are the rules".
    We aren't talking about justifying the system, we are talking about dealing with what the system creates. Sure, we can put our head in the sand and say F those guys, they are whiners. But when that reality is you have a league where there seems to be building labor discord because those same guys don't agree with the way the system is, then you have an issue in your league.
    I know, I know, we can say theres a union and they make the rules. That doesnt mean all players agree with it. Another part of the system is that Samuel has the rights to do exactly what he is doing, including holding out, demanding a trade, etc. Should we say anyone who thinks excersizing his options is just a whiner? That would shut off discussion of the issue too.


    This is the part that I dont get.
    OBVIOUSLY as Pats fans we side with the team. (Most do at least) That is normal. But why is it necessary to criticize the player for exercising all of his options?

    The argument is that the system in place was unfair to asante Samuel. I think that is undeniable. Him making 1.75 mill in 4 years is substanitally underpaid compared to what he did on the field compared to other players who made much more.
    Yes, that is the system. The argument that Samuel should shut up because thats the system is circular because his issue is the system, and in his case the system has not been good for him.

    Nonetheless, he does need to get into camp and prepare for a Championship Season. Complaining to enhance his bargaining position is one thing,once we hit training camp, he needs to focus on football.
  14. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    No one is saying anything is the Patriots fault.
    remember, while the Patriots are following the rules, so is Samuel. He has done nothing in violation of his contract. IMO, he is simply posturing, by the way.
    I don't know if Id say he has trashed the organization. I think he has said he is unhappy with their offer. Thats not trashing to me.
    I dont think he should be obligated to want to play here for less, if other teams are offering more. I can understand the loyalty factor, and I would have it personally, but I don't begin to think that the standard of loyalty we are talking about is at all a reasonble expectation for most NFL players.
  15. patfanken

    patfanken Rookie

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    A couple of points:

    1. GJAJ, That is an excellent point that isn't brought out enough. Granted Samuel did the work and became the player he is because of hard work and developing his talent. HOWVER, you cannot discount the contributions made to his play by the coaching staff and his teammates. They aren't the REASON he became the player he is now; they are PART of the reason.

    2. Andy, from the first I have agreed to your postition. Assante would be spiting himself if he didn't sign before the first game. If he had any sense at all he'd sign early enough to get into good football shape by the time the season starts, so I think a hold out of about a month should do the trick. It would protect him to a degree from injury, and save a certain amount of face, yet would still give him 3 weeks to get ready for the first game.

    3. BFan, you also make a great point that should be concidered. To take the injury situation out of the equation here is what he and the Pats should do. As part of the one year agreement, Samuel AND the Pats will share the expense of an insurance policy that would give Samuel 12 million dollars if he got a perment injury in 2007. That would probably cost between $500,000, and a million. Lets say its a million. The Pats up up $500K, and Sameul puts up one game check. Now, when he signs the deal, he is guaranteed $7.2MM net, and another 12 millon if he gets hurt. That's very close to the 20 million he wanted guarateed.
    Now he gets the best of both worlds.

    The Pats how good faith by putting up half the money, with the only stipulation that Samuel shows up to training camp on time. It makes great sense to the Samuel camp, and helps the Pats get him to camp ontime. He is protected against catistrophic injury, yet will still be a YOUNG FA for the coming season.
    Last edited: Jun 9, 2007
  16. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    We do need perspective, as does Asante. The problem with your assessment Andy is that he's not going to get $13M this year in a long term deal. He's likely going to get $20M or more in guarantees. So for him the equation is <$8M vs. >$20M. 8..20...8...20 You don't have to be a mathmatical genius to figure this out. Same with signing a long term deal here on the terms he's likely been offered to date. $6M vs. upwards of $9M, 6...9...6...9...

    Now maybe if he signs the tag and plays for $8M and gets re-tagged again next season and plays for almost $9.5M and then signs a long term deal at 28 for god knows what, he makes out like a bandit. But if he tears an ACL/MCL/PCL or some combination thereof early this season, he's likely on his own in March 2008 limping around to FA visits ala Ty Law - a lot younger sure, but with nowhere near the resume. And likley facing a prove it deal to even get back to where he left off.

    The problem here is, much as it was with Deion,is there are teams reportedly willing to pay him what he wants at least absent trade compensation. He's not risking $8M for a pipe dream contract - it's out there. What most of us believe, including apparently this FO, is that represents a substantial overpay. And we would like Asante to acknowledge that and forego the chance to be wildly overpaid and just take a fair offer. Not going to happen. Realistically it ain't gonna happen with 7 out of 10 players.

    What remains to be determined is the level of determination or depth of resolve on each side to prevail only on their terms. Or their wililngness to reach a compromise or accommodation that is the best they can manage under the circumstances.

    Many here believed last year that Branch would cave and the team would never give in to a trade. Turns out they were wrong. At the end of the day, when the season is upon us, Belichick blows the whistle on all this crap and does what it takes to insure his team moves on. Whether in this case that will be acquiessing to the players demands or parting company with him for something else of value remains to be seen. I really doubt he will persue option C, do nothing and let him show up whenever he decides to, although I could be wrong. And if he did that it would only be because he believed he would represent value here in week whatever - not gathering splinters on the bench.

    So, the thing is, for everything we think we know about Asante, I think he knows that about this FO too.
  17. PatsWickedPissah

    PatsWickedPissah PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I think BB does perceive value in Asante showing up by week 10 at the latest. It's likely that injuries will have whittled away at CB depth. Having Asante healthy and playing for a contract into the playoffs is of serious value. I do NOT expect any team to offer us something substantially better than a single #1 (i.e. no additional Day one pick) and therefore BB won't take the depth gamble. He most likely needs to beat the Colts to go to the SB.
  18. MrBigglesWorth

    MrBigglesWorth Rookie

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    We criticize because we are fans and the only investment we have is emotionally is with the team and very little with the player in regards to the player unless we like him, but absoultely none with his financial status.

    People follow teams nowadays and a micro percentage follows players.
  19. PATSNUTme

    PATSNUTme Paranoid Homer Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I agree with AJ's points and that is why I think Asante's hold out will end the week before the first pre-season game. He will lose about $450,000 per game for each game he 'holds out" during the season. He just won't do that,IMO.

    One point that hasn't been made is tha he is going to benefit this year by playing in back of what should be an awesome front seven. He should have a monster year playing in back of those guys. His value will be even greater to other teams in 2008 if he does.
  20. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    By that reasoning, doesn't it follow that this is NOT the fault of Asante Samuel, he's playing the rules and that is the way things were agreed to by the NFL owners?

    You can have conflict without fault. Based on the current state of rumors, it sounds like Samuel has a couple of offers to his liking and MAYBE an offer of a first-round pick in trade to boot. The Patriots would prefer their starting CB, but won't pay him what team X has offered. That's a naturally ugly and acrimonious situation, leading to a lot of growling and posturing. Once the season's underway, though, that offer likely disappears and all Samuel gets from sitting out is a huge financial loss. I'd be astonished if his agent let him sit out more than a game.
  21. zippo59

    zippo59 Rookie

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    I think it would be stupid for him to hold out but I wouldn't put it past him because some of these players have so much damn pride. He might consider it a loss of face if he shows up after saying he would hold out until week 10. You can not underestimate this.
  22. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    This does worry me a bit. But if it comes to that, I'm hoping his agent steps in as the voice of reason/self interest: "Look kid, don't worry about losing face. For the extra $4.4 million you can buy a new face."
  23. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    That's not necessarily true though. His value to other teams this year is by most assessments here inflated due to his INT's. He may never get 10 again, and the attention that comes with that, and he may never again appear to be an impact playmaker on a team sorely lacking that on defense (god willing...) again. He may also get hurt or get jumped on the depth chart. All this too factors into his thought process.

    I think Asante likes us, but he likes the idea of making the score of a lifetime RIGHT NOW because his stock and the market for it may never be higher. That's what this is all about. Does he want to do well and potentially to even better in a year or two, or does he want a max value deal right now because he knows that is an option. Just as his career being over in a heartbeat is an option.

    I'd be fine with the former, but then I'm easy... I appreciate the difference between me at 55 (or even a 20 something QB who grew up playing golf with his successful business man dad) and a 26 year old from a hard scrabble background who did what it took to get this far when probably most of the guys he grew up with are dead or in jail or flipping burgers. Money often matters most to people who had less than nothing including hope or prospects before hard work and football presented them something almost beyond their wildest dreams. Often times in those cases, they can never have too much money going forward because when all this is gone it will be what continues to seperate them (and often entire extended families) from their less than heartwarming roots.

    Tom did what he did because he aspires to greatness. Tedy did what he did because he aspires to play winning football and achieving comfort level happiness. Many guys in this league did what they did because they aspired not to end up living in an apartment over a crack house. It's fine for fans to sit back and say invest wisely and be grateful you have more than most of us ever will (you greedy jerk). Well, these guys want to have enough that nothing bad or misfortunate can overtake them or theirs ever again once their ability to play this game is history. They've seen what happened to the generation that came before them. And given the fact that more than half of them will leave this game with some form of disability or other potentially dogging them for the rest of their lives, I just can't blame them.

    I wish they all felt about playing here they way we do as fans, but then they know all too well how fickle our devotion to any of them is in this day and age. Once they cease to serve our purposes, we're on to the next guy who can. And if something goes wrong or they made some mistakes we're all too quick to launch into diatribes about personal responsibility for their own lives after football. Well folks, that is what Asante believes he is doing right now, being responsible for his life after football as he sees fit.
  24. fgssand

    fgssand PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I do not blame Asante for exercising his rights under collective bargaining agreement to seek his best deal, nor do I feel the Patriots should be blamed for franchising the player and then trying to make the decision that will be in the best interest of the football club.

    While perhaps "trashing" the Patriots isn't quite the level Asante has stooped to, he certainly has been less than flattering saying how the Patriots are not being fair with him:

    From 6/07...http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/articles/2007/06/05/samuel_see_you_in_week_10/

    I'm not coming to camp," he said. "I'm not showing up until the 10th week [of the season]. I feel unappreciated. The way they're treating me is just wrong."


    From 4/07...http://www.nfl.com/nflnetwork/story/10108712

    This is to let everybody know that I'm not happy anymore and things are not going well," Samuel said in his first public comments since the Patriots franchised him. "At first I thought it was going well, but it's not.
    "We have a difference of opinion in my value. They think I'm worth one price and the other teams think I'm worth a lot more. If a long-term deal can't be done at fair numbers for me and New England, then Iwant to be traded."
    If a long-term deal cannot get done with New England and a trade to another team does not happen, Samuel said he also is prepared to take steps he would rather not and sit out this season.
    "If it's best for me and my family," Samuel said

    Whereas BB continues to praise Asante as a player that has done a lot for the team, means a lot to the organization and hopeful that something can be worked out.
  25. fgssand

    fgssand PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Yup...agreed.....see my response to AJ....I feel both team and player are exercising their rights under the collective bargaining agreement.

    I hapen to feel Asante is overvaluing his worth and underestimating what playing for this team is all about (then again he has two rings and is now looking for the big payday and I cannot fault him for that).

    I feel BB will always make the best possible choice for what is in the best interest of the New England Patriots football club. (wouldn't ever want it any other way).

    I think this will end up with Asante playing for the 7.9MM tag as it seems to be the best solution, period.
  26. spacecrime

    spacecrime Rookie

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    I must be a mathematical moron because no matter how I work the numbers, Asante ALWAYS makes more in two years by being franchised and then signing a long term contract next year than by signing a long term deal this year. A LOT more.

    I also cannot figure out, and no one has been able to explain, what Asante gains by holding out. What does he get for that $5 mil he is giving up?

    He certainly can't force the Pats to sign a long term deal by holding out. Once July 15 passes, all he can do is play the one year.

    Is the hold-out to force a trade? Or what? There must be some benefit to holding out of ten games and losing the money, else why would he threaten to do it?
    Last edited: Jun 9, 2007
  27. patfanken

    patfanken Rookie

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    a couple MORE points:

    1. Moe, your point are well reasoned, but they don't seem to take into concideration the Pats side to this debate. It is very clear, and I've said it many times, is that the difference in this negotiation is the $20MM Assante wants in Guarantees over the first 2 years, and the $8MM he would get being franchised, and the $12-14MM offered in the LT deal.

    What I don't see, though its always reported as fact, are those "several" teams who Samuel's camps say are willing to pony up that kind of money. I think it is time that THOSE teams be identified...at least to the Pats. How real are those offers, and how many are just there it tweak the Pats.

    2. Regardless of the impass, I STILL contend that sitting out the season or even 10 games has no real value for Samuel...other than the threat to do so. He is ONLY hurting himself

    3. I think there are 2 compromised that can be offered. One would be for Samuel to split the costs of an insurance package that would protect him from injury. Splitting the costs would be a sign of good faith by the Pats, and would get him into camp on time....as I mentioned earlier in this thread.

    4. The other one would be to review the initial long term offer (average of $6MM/yr and around $12MM in guarantees) and up the Guarantees. Inother words, give him a $10MM signing bonus and Guarantee 18-20MM over the 5 year deal.

    5. I think the $9.5MM figure that is floating around here if the Pats franchise him again is low. $9.5MM is 120% of the franchise number TODAY ($7.87MM). The only thing we know about what the franchise figure will be NEXT year, is that it will be HIGHER. So if the Pats were to franchise Samuel a second year it would be at 120% of that HIGHER number, and more likely to be between $10-11+MM than $9.5.

    6. Thus if Samuel IS franchised those 2 years he would end up making as much if not more than Clement will over those 2 years. The only difference would be that Samuel was made to actually EARN those dollars, while Clement COULD, if he chose, rest on his laurels.

    7. IMHO, the ball is totally in Samuel's court to either broker the deal, sign the tender, or never play for the Pats again. I think the Pats have essentially moved on. If he comes back under their terms (the Bly deal, or the franchise tender) they are fine with it. IF he doesn't then they will have already moved on, like he was hurt.
  28. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I don't think that would fly under the cap or with the NFLPA who would likely see it as a means to circumventing player long term contracts and movement. Whatever the team paid for the policy (or perhaps even what they required the player to assume) would be considered guaranteed compensation under the cap, and perhaps the value of the insurance policy would be some sort of NLTBE. This would also set a precedent, which is what fans so often fear in any deal short of the player capitulating to the team.

    As for upping the offer, well that goes without saying is a compromise - but one the team may to entirely unwilling to make if they think he is in fact a $6M player period. The way teams get in cap trouble is overpaying for questionable talent. They've pegged him where they've pegged him, and it isn't as a Champ Bailey type talent. Something they also don't really need if they continue to focus on the front 7 and a SS formula.

    His tag figure for 2008 would be the higher of the average of the top 5 in 2007 (not including his tag salary) OR 120% of his salary this season under the tag. The 120% bump is usually the greater figure. Only scenario that might change that landscape would be if Champ and a couple of the other top 5's get big deals this season.

    And it would be a stretch to assume that the team would re-tag him, particularly if the price was a double digis payment, except to trade him. Because beyond that the tag goes to average of the top 5 highest paid players in the league - usually QB's, and the trade compensation goes from a 1st and 3rd to a lone 1st.

    As for the reports of interest from other teams, they don't have to go public to convince fans. Asante and his agent know what they know, and the team probably has an inkling who may be interested too. And at the end of the day that's all that matters.

    Why not just agree to let him go in 2008 in exchange for showing up in 2007.
  29. MoLewisrocks

    MoLewisrocks PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Not this year he doesn't. And if he gets hurt maybe he never does.
  30. patchick

    patchick Moderatrix Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Ah, but not ALWAYS...only if the market still perceives him as an elite corner a year from now! Lots of people here claim Samuel's a one-year wonder, right? Suppose he comes in and plays the season as the clear #2 corner behind Hobbs? This is a "strike while the 10-INT iron is hot" situation.


    Looks to me like he gets bubkes. But that's from actually holding out. The potential gain from threatening to hold out is pretty sweet, if the Pats fall for it. The trick is that it's tough to make a credible threat when you'd suffer from the result even more than the other guy. Pretty much the only way is to convince them that you're beyond rationality into passion/vengence/etc. Classic brinksmanship. But would he really push himself over the brink (taking his agent along for the ride?) I don't buy it, and apparently the Pats don't either.

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