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Some market watchers ready to call bottom

Discussion in 'Political Discussion' started by PatriotsReign, Nov 1, 2008.

  1. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    From Forbes.com

    "The advance, has some market watchers ready to slap the "bottom" tag on the lows of Oct. 10 and wait for better days ahead. The Dow Jones industrial average climbed 144 points, or 1.6%, to 9,325 Friday, and added 11.3% on the week; while the S&P 500 was up 15 points, or 1.5%, to 969, and 10.5% for the week; and the Nasdaq added 22 points, or 1.3%, to 1,721, and picked up 10.9% over five days."

    Equity Rally Caps A Red October - Forbes.com

    To anyone out there who is considering dumping money back into the markets based upon fools saying we have hit bottom,

    "DON'T DO IT! PLEASE, FOR YOUR OWN SAKE, DON'T DO IT!"

    I'm not saying to take your money out, since I don't know enough to make that statement. but if you have taken money out, hold off on putting it back in. We've got some more declining to do before all is said and done.

    That is the most idiotic "glass half-full" statement I've heard in years. But then again, if you think about it, Forbes and some "market experts" have a lot to gain from foolishly attempting to get money back into the markets.
     
  2. BelichickFan

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    #24 Jersey

    No-one knows, we just guess.

    Me ? I think we'll have a little post election rally then a drop of some percent, I have no idea what. It's silly to try to time the market but I'm staying in for a week or so - if we do have little rally I'll get out and see if I can get back in lower. It's silly but volatility is so high that it's tempting to try to make a quick gain.
     
  3. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    BF....I've said for a long time that recessions are good for the economy, but never in my wildest dreams did I imagine what may be happening.

    Read the links in my "Volvo truck orders...." thread. These aren't fringe guys calling for doomsday anymore. And that's what makes it so frightening.

    If you're not a man who prays, it might not be a bad idea just in case. It's so sad and frustrating, I can't even put it into words.
     
  4. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    November through April tends to be the markets strongest period, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it pick up 1,000+ points past new years. The problem is that this is really unknown territory. Would a rebound like that be temporary, or longer lasting? Who knows.
     
  5. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    I think "who knows" is the best one can say.
     
  6. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    We don;t know. I've seen some pundits say that credit cards will be the next financial crisis, and that it's going to be worse to boot. We'll see I guess.
     
  7. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    We can always bail them out RW....:banned:
     
  8. Real World

    Real World Moderator Staff Member

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    I hope not.
     
  9. Run DMC

    Run DMC In the Starting Line-Up

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    #24 Jersey

    Don't believe the hype. No way this is over.
     
  10. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Ya can't spell economics without "con."

    The most terrifying thing about the ongoing mess is that it points out the fragility of any economic system. At bottom, any economic system is simply a web of shared delusion and promises. I'll gladly give you a dollar tuesday for a cheeseburger today. This piece of paper is worth this bag of groceries, and this piece of paper representing these pieces of paper, is worth that automobile. And the paper is always backed by.... other paper. Not even shiny and basically useless yellow metal.

    Don't get me wrong... none of the alternatives are particularly appealing either. But damn.

    PFnV
     
  11. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    Very, very stated PFiVA!! The basics of a system of exchange aren't very basic, are they?

    When I think about it, just about everything I do in my job is theoretical. I do little actual "work" and they give me a decent amount of paper for doing almost nothing.
     
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2008
  12. PatsFanInVa

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    Come to think of it, sounds like a fair exchange, right?
     
  13. PatriotsReign

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    #18 Jersey

    I'm sure you figured out I meant to say "very, very well stated..." instead of "very, very stated..." wtf was I thinking?
     
  14. MrBigglesWorth

    MrBigglesWorth Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    this is a collapse. in our wildest dreams we never would have thought the debt would be 10 trillion and it has no sights of going down.

    to simply come up with interest payments on that debt and social security payments it is going to hurt us.

    I do not see that debt ever getting paid off.

    how can you compete against other nations slave labor? unions cause workers to work under limitations of production. for example only laying so much pipe per day on the big dig.

    i will be very interested to see how christmas shopping is this year. things are bad and will get worst but people seem to live in a bubble and continue thir poor expenditure ways.

    the lowering of gas is killing any push for alternative energies.

    we don't produce anything and we consume too much.

    and let's say obama does an awesome job for 8 years and balances our budget. all we need is another bush to ruin it. hopefully the gop is on it's way out. but i guess i'm a bit pessimistic here.
     
  15. PatriotsReign

    PatriotsReign Hall of Fame Poster

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    #18 Jersey

    my guess is that 75% of Americans don't even realize we're going into a deep recession or possibly a depression. They're either in denial or listen to the MSM act as if the gov't is going to take care of everything.

    I always' wonder why our gov't doesn't just come out and get honest and tell Americans we're in for some very difficult and trying times. People need to know they should be cutting back on spending and saving as much as possible.
     
  16. PatsFanInVa

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    Everybody depressed enough?

    The Social Security debt -- for which we have a bunch of IOUs right now -- is 53 trillion dollars. We don't have 53 trillion dollars.

    That particular little timebomb will have to wait so we can all work our asses off, pay down the present debt (or even get close,) scrimp and save ("tax and spend," if you count every social benefit as "spending,") and then... then... confront our social security obligations.

    The broken record about "welfare" is just another con job. What we'll have to deal with in the future dwarfs our current problem. And in case people don't understand it yet, we're probably entering a secular bear market, as in a 10-20 year bear cycle of modest growth of any.

    For a long time we've been pretending that "superpower" status is all that matters: As long as someone from somewhere else doesn't do unthinkable things to us, everything is fine. This is not the case. We are perfectly capable of doing the unthinkable to ourselves. And we've been doing it. We trail most of the rest of the advanced countries in every measure of health, social welfare, even longevity. We do it to our poorest, in ways they wouldn't dream of in those other nations. And if we don't man up, we'll also do it to the oldest, as a class. If we're to push up the retirement age, it's time to do it. If we're to tax the wealthy more than the poor, it's time to do it.

    Now. Before the next crisis. Now.

    "Call bottom"? The roadside is littered with day-traders and market timers. Calling a bottom is like calling a whore: you never know what you're going to get for your investment, and you could be sorry for a long, long time.

    PFnV
     
  17. MrBigglesWorth

    MrBigglesWorth Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    I'd go one step closer and I think the end of the dollar is near.

    Govt will never be straight because panic will occur and no one wants to hear it. I work in a public high school and the lifestyles these families and kids have are beyond my comprehension. every kid has a cell phone that gets updated annually or bbi-annually. every kid has a computer. but it gets worst when i heard they are in dance which is costly, gymnastics, AAU sports. if you want to think about it ..... high school sports is a way to pass on the cost to government for recreation or rather than paying for little league, etc. then summer vacation seems like everyone is owed a summer vacation and the exception is going no where.

    it really disgusts me how people on the top of the food chain exploit and keep the ones below pushed down.

    it happened in egypt with the pyramids, in china now, except our slaves are given a minimum standard of life.

    we need a massive overall of politicians and the corruption and they need to be sent right to prison. this is treason on the nation and people.
     
  18. MrBigglesWorth

    MrBigglesWorth Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    we need production to get back on the positive of the trade deficit.

    we both know a household needs to take in more than they spend.
     
  19. PatsFanInVa

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    We need to produce goods and perform services. Period. What we make and what we do defines what real wealth we can create -- that is inevitable. Investment is only pertinent insofar as it links to the capitalization of actual industry, of any kind...

    Our problem for decades is we are trying to create money from having money to start with. This is great, as long as the money represents the goods and services we're talking about.

    I borrow money to create goods and services. I pay it back with interest. If you are someone who provides the service of lending money so I can do so, you are performing a needed service. You're just a banker. No problem so far. You get paid for deciding what's a reasonable risk.

    Now, if you make a living by trying to tweak investment vehicles to make returns happen, you have two choices: Be prudent, and assess risk in such a way that you eek out more returns than you lose on downside risk. But that's really hard to make a ton of money on. What you really want is something you can POUR money into with no risk, with a guarantee that your returns exceed inflation.

    So, ever the dreamers, we came up with a cool new idea: we're post-industrial. Investment isn't a way to capitalize businesses, it's an end unto itself. It's not something people do to create the ability to provide goods and services, it is its own industry. What does that industry do? It comes up with ways to turn money into more money, without all that messy capital and labor involved.

    The trick? Invest with no downside risk.

    Or get people to half-believe that's what they're doing. And when that ponzi scheme dissolves, come up with another one. And so on, and so on. The music stops, some people are in debt, the usual suspects are richer. The same goes for the dot com bubble, the telecom bubble, and of course, the real estate bubble. The dot-commers were in many cases kids working for "new economy" companies, taking a huge chunk of their salaries in stock options. These were fantastic things to have until it turned out they were worthless if you didn't take your cash off the table fast. But the kids stayed in in many cases because they'd been told "the rules have changed" because of the "new economy." Again in the real estate bubble, "the rules have changed" became a mantra when people discussed how insane it was to have "liars' (no-doc) loans," and exotic option ARMS, and a million other products people did not entirely understand. What was once a nine-month process became a form of impulse buying... for a quarter million bucks on average. What was created? Once again, debt. What did we call it? Once again, "wealth."

    I wish this were more coherent... maybe I just want to get this down in writing so I remember it myself LOL... money ain't free. It comes from a job. Investing ain't guaranteed, unless you find a patsy. I might not go looking for the patsies, because I'm not sure I won't be one of them. Apparently it happens to all of us... only I'm "small enough to fail" if I eff up... not so the wall street firms.

    Okay enough of that

    PFnV
     
  20. MrBigglesWorth

    MrBigglesWorth Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    what you referred to is what drives us within our nation, but we need the wealth of other countries to pour back into us. too much has flowed out.

    in essence we need nations owing us and not us owing them
     

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