Some light shed on just how bad Indy was - FootballOutsiders

[averywhitehall]

These stats do not surprise me.

1. My feelings on the Colts/Jets game were that the Colts defense and ST's are so decimated by injuries...If it wasn't for a few regulars out there...keeping the jets in check...a good offense would have picked them apart.

2. If the Pats play to the average level of play in the past 8 games...this game is going to be a blowout.

We might not put up 45 on them...but they are not going to score more than 10..maybe 13 on us.

1. You mean the same Colts offense that got 28 points vs. you earlier in the season? That Colts team. Even with all those injuries...The Colts still averaged 27.2 points per game. For the sake of this argument, allow me to add 0.8 ppg to their average.

Jets D held a team that scored 28 points per game in the regular season, even with the injuries, to 16 points...12 points below their average. That is a win for the defense, no matter how you try to spin it.

2. That's a big 'if' patna. That particular 'if' may not come to pass. If you think things can't change in such a dramatic fashion in the playoffs...think again my friend.

Have we forgotten the lessons learned in 2007?

Patriots averaged 36.8 points per game in the regular season...The most in NFL history. That went down to 21 per game in the playoffs.

You beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 31-20
Beat the Chargers 21-12 after drubbing them 38-14 in week two.
Lost to the Giants 17-14 after beating them 38-35 in the regular season finale.

Of course I highlight the last two examples because...those were two playoff caliber teams that played you twice that year...obviously giving them an advantage in terms of preparation for the second time around, learning from mistakes and such. I believe that will help out the Jets immensely.

3. Will your young defensive players be ready for the increased intensity that comes along with the playoffs? Only time will tell...but it didn't look good last year. But is your defense really that good...or is it opportunistic? Think about it like this...I made a thread in this forum which states that the Jets game, in which they lost 45-3 to the Patriots, was lost in the 1st quarter. People derided me, but if you hear me out I do indeed make sense. In the 4 games out of the last 5 in which you held teams to single digits in scoring there was one thing in common: a huge scoring quarter in the first half.

To note:

• 17 in the first quarter vs. The Jets.
• 26 in the second quarter vs. The Bears.
• 17 in the second quarter vs. The Bills.
• 14 in the first quarter vs. Miami.

However...in the 4 point win vs. Green Bay: 7 in the 1st quarter, 7 in the second quarter, 7 in the third quarter, 10 in the 4th quarter. You scored in a half what you scored in a quarter vs. the above mentioned teams. As a result your young defense was exposed by a backup QB. Same thing with the Lions game in the first half on Thanksgiving.

Yes...I know I'm not re-inventing the wheel with my theory. And yes, I know that the Jets have to find a way to slow you down like GB did. But in that other thread I made, that I mentioned earlier, I show how the Jets aided The Patriots with their own mistakes in that first quarter. Glad to be back ladies & gents...

 

[PatsWickedPissah]

Were you selling anyone on the Pats being in the AFCCG this time last season? C'mon, tell the truth? The bottom line is the Colts went 10-6 with a team held together by scotch tape and glue. They will get those players back next season plus have a draft and free agency to shore up holes. Do you honestly believe that they can't beat ANYONE in the AFC with an offense led by Manning, Wayne and Clark plus a defense that has Mathis and Freeney next January? Please. The Colts had a down year due to injuries. Nothing more. Nothing less. They will be back to 12-4 next year and they'll have any non-homer Pats fans biting their nails and squirming in their seat if we play them in the playoffs next season. The Colts and Manning will be on a mission next season just like Brady and the Pats were this year. Hold off the funeral proceedings my friend and be objective about it.

J' Accuse Pats homo?

Again, basic reading comprehension.

I SAID as long as Peyton is on the field the Colts are a game threat.

Read it again.

Just not the AFCCG juggernaught threats.

 

[Nikolai]

Anybody who's watched the Pats knows that new QBs are a problem because of the lack of game film. Colt McCoy and Matt Flynn posed a problem because of the difficulty the team had in preparing for them. No such problems with the Sanchize.

Everybody also knows the Pats faded down the stretch in 2007, where the 2010 Pats finished pretty strong, outside of the Green Bay game, which they still won.

You can hang your hat on a few things (the adjustments the Jets have made in the secondary since Leonhard's injury), but you're off the mark with your post, just like you were last time.

 

[Deus Irae]

Were you selling anyone on the Pats being in the AFCCG this time last season? C'mon, tell the truth? The bottom line is the Colts went 10-6 with a team held together by scotch tape and glue. They will get those players back next season plus have a draft and free agency to shore up holes. Do you honestly believe that they can't beat ANYONE in the AFC with an offense led by Manning, Wayne and Clark plus a defense that has Mathis and Freeney next January? Please. The Colts had a down year due to injuries. Nothing more. Nothing less. They will be back to 12-4 next year and they'll have any non-homer Pats fans biting their nails and squirming in their seat if we play them in the playoffs next season. The Colts and Manning will be on a mission next season just like Brady and the Pats were this year. Hold off the funeral proceedings my friend and be objective about it.

You're demanding others be objective, but your post contains speculation and interpretation that you aren't being objective about ("The Colts had a down year due to injuries. Nothing more. Nothing less. They will be back to 12-4 next year and they'll have any non-homer Pats fans biting their nails and squirming in their seat if we play them in the playoffs next season."), and you ignore some pretty important issues that the Colts have going forward:

Reggie Wayne will turn 33 during the next season
Manning will turn 35 in March
Clark will turn 32 in June

That's the 3 best players on the offense, all at the back end of, or beyond, the "prime" years at their respective positions.

Caldwell hasn't demonstrated any ability to weather rough patches

The defense has gone from 1st to 7th to 8th to 23rd in points allowed over the past 4 seasons.


There's more, but that's a pretty good start. PWP is just speculating on the future, but there's certainly an objective argument that can be made on his side of the issue.

 

[goheels22002]

1. You mean the same Colts offense that got 28 points vs. you earlier in the season? That Colts team. Even with all those injuries...The Colts still averaged 27.2 points per game. For the sake of this argument, allow me to add 0.8 ppg to their average.

Jets D held a team that scored 28 points per game in the regular season, even with the injuries, to 16 points...12 points below their average. That is a win for the defense, no matter how you try to spin it.

2. That's a big 'if' patna. That particular 'if' may not come to pass. If you think things can't change in such a dramatic fashion in the playoffs...think again my friend.

Have we forgotten the lessons learned in 2007?

Patriots averaged 36.8 points per game in the regular season...The most in NFL history. That went down to 21 per game in the playoffs.

You beat the Jacksonville Jaguars 31-20
Beat the Chargers 21-12 after drubbing them 38-14 in week two.
Lost to the Giants 17-14 after beating them 38-35 in the regular season finale.

Of course I highlight the last two examples because...those were two playoff caliber teams that played you twice that year...obviously giving them an advantage in terms of preparation for the second time around, learning from mistakes and such. I believe that will help out the Jets immensely.

3. Will your young defensive players be ready for the increased intensity that comes along with the playoffs? Only time will tell...but it didn't look good last year. But is your defense really that good...or is it opportunistic? Think about it like this...I made a thread in this forum which states that the Jets game, in which they lost 45-3 to the Patriots, was lost in the 1st quarter. People derided me, but if you hear me out I do indeed make sense. In the 4 games out of the last 5 in which you held teams to single digits in scoring there was one thing in common: a huge scoring quarter in the first half.

To note:

• 17 in the first quarter vs. The Jets.
• 26 in the second quarter vs. The Bears.
• 17 in the second quarter vs. The Bills.
• 14 in the first quarter vs. Miami.

However...in the 4 point win vs. Green Bay: 7 in the 1st quarter, 7 in the second quarter, 7 in the third quarter, 10 in the 4th quarter. You scored in a half what you scored in a quarter vs. the above mentioned teams. As a result your young defense was exposed by a backup QB. Same thing with the Lions game in the first half on Thanksgiving.

Yes...I know I'm not re-inventing the wheel with my theory. And yes, I know that the Jets have to find a way to slow you down like GB did. But in that other thread I made, that I mentioned earlier, I show how the Jets aided The Patriots with their own mistakes in that first quarter. Glad to be back ladies & gents...

So I guess the Jets will start their backup QB. Ooooh. And the Pats will score 31 just like their first playoff game in '07. And the final score will somehow favor the Jets?

Your comments about the Patriots defense being "opportunistic?" Damn right. Mark Sanchez fumbled 9 times and had 14 interceptions in 2010. Don't you think that the Pats LBs and DL will go for the strip when they get into the backfield and that the DBs will be looking to jump routes?

Or, do you think that Mark Sanchez is so steady that he won't provide any "opportunities" for the Pats young defense to pick him off or make him fumble on Sunday? Sanchez was lucky to get out Indy with just one INT the way he was playing floating balloons all over the place. He better be sharp and make good decisions against the Pats Sunday in the wind and cold with those young - and fast - DBs and LBs flying around.

 

[averywhitehall]

The Jets beat a bad Indy team 1. thats poorly coached. Without question, the Colts were decimated by injuries this season and Caldwell looks lost out there. Indy made to the SB last season thanks to Dungy and Manning.

2. Look at this way? This season, Brady has the weapons on offense that Manning had last season when he lit up the Jets defense like Christmas. Thats how the 45 - 3 Monday Night Massacre happened.

Sanchez does not impress me in the least. 3. He accomplished nothing in the second half of the 2009 AFCC when his team needed him the most. If the Jets cannot run the ball, Sanchez the USC Game Manager is done.

Look for NE to take away "Elle T" and Greene and force Sanchez to beat them.

1. No one was saying how bad Caldwell was last year when they made it to the SB. How did Tony Dungy help the Colt's last year? He was with Rodney & Dan Patrick hosting 'Football Night in America' on NBC.

2. Welker, Branch, Hernandez, Gronkowski vs Wayne, Garcon, Collie & Clark. In terms of pure talent...Peyton's crew wins. But it's not the players...it's how they're used. Peyton's crew beat the Jets with the deep ball last year. Pats don't use the deep ball. Short to intermediate routes with lots of YAC. The Pats had 4 or 5 passing plays of 20+ yards in that 45-3 game. All 4 or 5 of them were of the short pass (through the air) variety. Pats tried to beat the Jets deep in game No.2 and it backfired. There has been some speculation that The Patriots changed their offensive philosophy this seasaon just to get an advantage over the Jets. But I digress.

I have a question Triumph...well actually two.

1: Did you watch the 45-3 game again?
2: If so, in which play(s) did a Patriots reciever A) Beat the Jets deep or B) make catches in tight coverage?

From what I saw there were two: Eric Smith got called for a pass interference on one deep pass -and- I think Gronkowski shielded a defender (Lowery I believe) to catch a pass with good coverage. I could be wrong on this, but most of the completions Brady threw were to receivers who were, for the most part, unaccounted for.

Perfect example: 85 Danny Woodhead's 104 receiving yards were dump off passes in which the Jets were caught out of position...ON FREAKIN' TWO FREAKIN' PLAYS!!!!!

(calm down...breathe)

That's speaks more to poor & unprepared coaching, in my humble opinion, than the Jets being beaten by wondrous talent.

Wes Welkers TD pass was one that was caught with no Jet in front of him and he just sprinted down the sideline. Poor coaching! It wasn't as if he beat his man cleanly...there was no man to beat as he was FREAKIN' UNACCOUNTED FOR!!!!!!!!

(calm down...breathe)

2. He was a freaking rookie man. Did better any other rookie QB in NFL history in the playoffs. How was Brady during his rookie year? I can't seem to remember? Oh yea...he was getting his knowledge on the bench, which was a great benefit to him. I can't believe you're faulting a rookie for not being able to bring his team back in the AFC Championship game. Why wasn't Brady able to bring his team back vs. the Ravens last year? If you can call out a rookie, then I can call out a future HOF without Wes Welker.

 

[PatsChamp88]

You're demanding others be objective, but your post contains speculation and interpretation that you aren't being objective about ("The Colts had a down year due to injuries. Nothing more. Nothing less. They will be back to 12-4 next year and they'll have any non-homer Pats fans biting their nails and squirming in their seat if we play them in the playoffs next season."), and you ignore some pretty important issues that the Colts have going forward:

Reggie Wayne will turn 33 during the next season
Manning will turn 35 in March
Clark will turn 32 in June

That's the 3 best players on the offense, all at the back end of, or beyond, the "prime" years at their respective positions.

Caldwell hasn't demonstrated any ability to weather rough patches

The defense has gone from 1st to 7th to 8th to 23rd in points allowed over the past 4 seasons.


There's more, but that's a pretty good start. PWP is just speculating on the future, but there's certainly an objective argument that can be made on his side of the issue.

Good points it's a real shame when you think about it

 

[averywhitehall]

So I guess the Jets will start their backup QB. Ooooh. And the Pats will score 31 just like their first playoff game in '07. And the final score will somehow favor the Jets?

Your comments about the Patriots defense being "opportunistic?" Damn right. Mark Sanchez fumbled 9 times and had 14 interceptions in 2010. Don't you think that the Pats LBs and DL will go for the dtrip when they get into the backfield and that the DBs will be looking to jump routes?

Or, do you think that Mark Sanchez is so steady that he won't provide any "opportunities" for the Pats young defense to pick him off or make him fumble on Sunday?

Defense is opportunistic with a big lead only...with the notable exception of the Colts game.

Also, my post you're responding to states that when the 2007 Pats team played a playoff team, the second time in the playoffs, they had a much harder time scoring. That was the first time that Jaguars team played you in 2007 and gave up 31 as a result.

 

[RobertWeathers]

Defense is opportunistic with a big lead only...with the notable exception of the Colts game.

Also, my post you're responding to states that when the 2007 Pats team played a playoff team, the second time in the playoffs, they had a much harder time scoring. That was the first time that Jaguars team played you in 2007 and gave up 31 as a result.

Need to stop with the 07 comparisons. These are two totally different offenses and teams.

07 squad was starting to show cracks right at Thanksgiving. First 8 games they averaged 40 points. last 8 they averaged 28. Defenses were keying on Moss. His YPC wen down by roughly 3 yards a catch after the 56 point game vs BUF.

3 of McCourty's 7 picks have come with the team trailing or leading by less than 8 points. In theory, you are accurate, but in actuality this defense is opportunistic 75% of the time. Not many garbage time TOs for this team.

 

[DEK80]

You're demanding others be objective, but your post contains speculation and interpretation that you aren't being objective about ("The Colts had a down year due to injuries. Nothing more. Nothing less. They will be back to 12-4 next year and they'll have any non-homer Pats fans biting their nails and squirming in their seat if we play them in the playoffs next season."), and you ignore some pretty important issues that the Colts have going forward:

Reggie Wayne will turn 33 during the next season
Manning will turn 35 in March
Clark will turn 32 in June

That's the 3 best players on the offense, all at the back end of, or beyond, the "prime" years at their respective positions.

Caldwell hasn't demonstrated any ability to weather rough patches

The defense has gone from 1st to 7th to 8th to 23rd in points allowed over the past 4 seasons.


There's more, but that's a pretty good start. PWP is just speculating on the future, but there's certainly an objective argument that can be made on his side of the issue.

LOL calm down brother. I don't care if he, you or anyone agrees with my "opinion" that the Colts went 10-6 and got ousted from the playoffs primarily due to injuries. I think it stands to reason that the Colts would have at worst had a much better offense and chance to advance if Dallas Clark was on the field against the Jets. I think it also is highly probable that the Colts would have won more than 10 games had they not been so decimated by injuries. Can I prove it? Of course not. I simply feel that the OP is off base to say the Colts days of being a "contender" are over just because they had a down year(by their standards) when their down year was accompanied by injuries to many key players. Also, I disagree 100% that the Colts are going to take a slide because Manning turns 35, Wayne turns 33 and Clark turns 32. Weren't the so called "experts" saying the same things about the 2007 Patriots defense when we had Bruschi, Vrabel, Harrison and Seau playing key roles? All I'm saying is the Colts can not be written off as a non-contender so prematurely when we have NO IDEA how their 2011 draft
and free agency will go in addition to the fact that they will get their injured guys back for 2011 just like the Patriots shocked the so-called "experts" and doom and gloomers by having an outstanding 2010 draft that took us from being a mediocre 10-6 team to a 14-2 super bowl favorite.

 

[averywhitehall]

1. Anybody who's watched the Pats knows that new QBs are a problem because of the lack of game film. Colt McCoy and Matt Flynn posed a problem because of the difficulty the team had in preparing for them. No such problems with the Sanchize.

2. Everybody also knows the Pats faded down the stretch in 2007, where the 2010 Pats finished pretty strong, outside of the Green Bay game, which they still won.

You can hang your hat on a few things (the adjustments the Jets have made in the secondary since Leonhard's injury), but you're off the mark with your post, just like you were last time.

1. Colt McCoy didn't cost you that game. Turnovers on your part and an inability to stop the run did you in. Maybe you were looking ahead to the Steelers. Backup QB's being a problem shows that your team relies on coaching more than simply having great defensive talent. McCoy didn't hurt the Steelers. Bills Backup was embarrassed by the Jets. No game film on either player.

2. I disagree with you sir. Last 4 games in 2007

34-13 vs. The Steelers
20-10 vs. The Jets
28-7 vs. Miami
38-35 vs. The Giants.

Outscoring your last four opponents 120 to 65...I don't see any fading away here. Nice try though.

 

[ATippett56]

Defense is opportunistic with a big lead only...with the notable exception of the Colts game.

Also, my post you're responding to states that when the 2007 Pats team played a playoff team, the second time in the playoffs, they had a much harder time scoring. That was the first time that Jaguars team played you in 2007 and gave up 31 as a result.

A history lesson for the oblivious NY Jesters fan:

The last two times the Jets have played the Patriots in Foxboro, MA with Sanchez at quarterback:

Patriots points scored: 31, 45
Jesters points scored: 14, 3

In the meantime, the Patriots have scored no less than 31 points in each of their last eight games. Prepare yourself for another blowout, the Patriots march on to the AFC Championship Game.

 

[alvinnf]

I give all the credit in the world to the Jets. Goin into the dome under any circumstances is a tough challenge. Thanks to Jim Caldwell they were able to escape with a win. Let's give them some credit for that. If they had another qtr to play they would have won by 10 pts. They were cramming it down the colts throat......

 

[Deus Irae]

LOL calm down brother. I don't care if he, you or anyone agrees with my "opinion" that the Colts went 10-6 and got ousted from the playoffs primarily due to injuries. I think it stands to reason that the Colts would have at worst had a much better offense and chance to advance if Dallas Clark was on the field against the Jets. I think it also is highly probable that the Colts would have won more than 10 games had they not been so decimated by injuries. Can I prove it? Of course not.

I'm calm. Your complaint was off base, so I responded to it. By the way, regarding Clark.... Tammie had 67 receptions in 13 games. That would have been the 3rd best season for Clark, receptions wise, and would have tied for his second best year in terms of receptions per game. Tammie's 9.4 ypc was also identical to what Clark was at this past season. Your Clark argument really doesn't hold much water. On the positive side, though, if Tammie's not just a one year wonder, he can be a nice asset moving forward.

I simply feel that the OP is off base to say the Colts days of being a "contender" are over just because they had a down year(by their standards) when their down year was accompanied by injuries to many key players. Also, I disagree 100% that the Colts are going to take a slide because Manning turns 35, Wayne turns 33 and Clark turns 32. Weren't the so called "experts" saying the same things about the 2007 Patriots defense when we had Bruschi, Vrabel, Harrison and Seau playing key roles? All I'm saying is the Colts can not be written off as a non-contender so prematurely when we have NO IDEA how their 2011 draft
and free agency will go in addition to the fact that they will get their injured guys back for 2011 just like the Patriots shocked the so-called "experts" and doom and gloomers by having an outstanding 2010 draft that took us from being a mediocre 10-6 team to a 14-2 super bowl favorite.

It's one thing to hold such an opinion. Hell, that's what these boards are all about. It's another to assert that the other side is not being objective when you're going homer in your own post. And don't go pulling the "You're a Patriots fan!" argument out of your hat, because I call out Patriots posters here for doing the same thing you did.

 

[The Dynasty]

A history lesson for the oblivious NY Jesters fan:

The last two times the Jets have played the Patriots in Foxboro, MA with Sanchez at quarterback:

Patriots points scored: 31, 45
Jesters points scored: 14, 3

In the meantime, the Patriots have scored no less than 31 points in each of their last eight games. Prepare yourself for another blowout, the Patriots march on to the AFC Championship Game.

I wouldnt go into the game expecting a blow out. While I do think the Patriots will come out on top, I am not expecting a blow out. Probably less than a 10 point game.

 

[ATippett56]

I wouldnt go into the game expecting a blow out. While I do think the Patriots will come out on top, I am not expecting a blow out. Probably less than a 10 point game.

Nope blowout.

The only reason the Jets beat the Colts was to take the ball out of Sanchez hands in the second half and allow the Jets running game to wear down the Colts front seven.

Mark Sanchez posted a pathetic 62.4 quarterback rating against the Colts in pristine atmospheric conditions.

Mark Sanchez: Game Logs at NFL.com

In addition, the Colts had by far the worst rushing defense of the six AFC playoff qualifiers. The Patriots rush defense is superior to the Colts.

Furthermore, Peyton Manning was without the following offensive players against the Jets:

Dallas Clark
Anthony Gonzalez
Austin Collie
Donald Brown
Ryan Diem

How many offensive players were out for the Jets against the Colts?

 

[BmoreOrioleJet]

32nd ranked special teams, 26th ranked defense and 7th ranked offense.

The Jets barely escaped with the W if not for a Colts meltdown at the end.

Life just got a whole lot tougher for the NY Jets no matter how their fans want to spin things. Unless the Pats come out beaten down like last post season (which I seriously doubt will happen given the bye week) NE will be facing off vs Baltimore or Pitt for the AFCC crown next week.

FOOTBALL OUTSIDERS: Innovative Statistics, Intelligent Analysis | Week 18 DVOA Ratings

Didn't the Pats only beat the Colts by 3 @ the razor in a game where Peyton turned it over 5 times?

 

[ATippett56]

Didn't the Pats only beat the Colts by 3 @ the razor in a game where Peyton turned it over 5 times?

Didn't the Jets only score 3 points against the Patriots the last time the two teams played at Foxboro, MA?

 

[BmoreOrioleJet]

Didn't the Jets only score 3 points against the Patriots the last time the two teams played at Foxboro, MA?

Yea, but if y'all don't win this week that game is meaningless.

 

[ATippett56]

Yea, but if y'all don't win this week that game is meaningless.

It's not meaningless since the New England Patriots are playing at home this weekend. Jets 3 points, Jets 3 points. Patriots put up at least 31 points on the scoreboard this Sunday as has been the case in their last eight games.