Some insight into Belichick's draft day philosophy

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

There wasn't a lot new in the post, so these are all lines of argument we're pretty familiar with.

The "planet" theory -- "There only are so many guys on the planet with certain combinations of characteristics" -- has been discussed for years as an explanation of why BB's first round picks have been so concentrated on DL and TEs.

Most of us who recall the reporting around the times of various drafts think you're flat-out wrong in your point about CBs vs. safeties.

I think you're flat-out wrong about asserting BB prefers veteran WRs, given that he's taken three in the second round, at a total cost of three 2nds, a 3rd, and a 4th.

BB famously said that interior OL can and should be acquired cheap -- before, of course, he went out and drafted Mankins, and also before paying Koppen the big bucks. That contradictory combination serves to undermine almost any deterministic theory of Patriot drafting.

Actually I never said he prefers veteran wide receivers. I argued it is a mixed bag and this offseason signifies a change in philosophy, so no pattern.

So where are all the corners that were drafted high? Prove me wrong.

 

[sebman2112]

I don't feel I am putting them down at all. As I mentioned before, the Patriots would prefer to sign seasoned veterans at the position. Their two largest free agent signings have been A. Thomas and R. Colvin. They've also signed Seau and Vrabel, as well as other role players (who weren't good) Beisel, Brown, etc. Time will tell if they draft a linebacker, but it seems that after seven years, a pattern has developed. I don't believe they have drafted a linebacker before the 4th round, despite plenty of available talent.

Again though you could have said the same thing about the Patriots not drafting a RB until Maroney. Also, Colvin, Vrabel, and AD are OLB's first. AD's been moved to ILB in the Patriots defense but he's a more natural OLB. Yes, the Patriots likely will sign another vet LB (or two) but this year seems to present a larger crop of 3-4 sized ILB's with talent. We'll see man.

Last year was the first year I actually started thinking they might think about drafting a LB in either the first or second (wasn't my first choice though), and right now it seems even more likely in '08. I'm not one of the fans who's been on the "draft a LB early" bandwaggon for years. I was actually on the Draft Maroney, Draft Meriweather bandwaggon...Got on the later one during Febuary though

 

[psychoPat]

RayClay said:

3. If you have future linebackers figured out, you're a better man than me.

and DaBruinz said:

I don't have LBers figured out. I think that the Pats look for talent beyond the 1st 2 rounds. But, the priorities are as was mentioned.

It's remarkable how deep and strong the draftnik undercurrent runs
... even at season's start and amidst an epic PR tornado.

You fellows see much more of that scene than i do. But i did have my eyes opened on one point recently.
BB does not expect collegians to become valuable NFL linebackers
during the pendency of their rookie contracts.
I guess the learning curve is too long ... not too steep.

Sure, spend 2nd day picks and hope to hit a dark horse - or a conversion project.
But you can only COUNT ON proven veterans.

This i learned (finally) when Chad Brown again made the Patriots' roster.

If what y'all say about the '08 crop of LBs is true ... next April
should test this hypothesis.

btw, RayClay!
Your Captain Queeg and the strawberries (elsewhere)
is masterful !

 

[AzPatsFan]

The past two years have not been great LB draft classes, esp for 3-4 Ds. I was surprised they let David Harris go this year, but I'd be even more surprised if Maualuga, Laurinaitis or Brinkley get passed up in '08 (if available when NE drafts). I also like Jonathan Goff from Vandy for his potential versatility, though he's been evaluated as a second-round talent.

Before they drafted Mankins, it had been "established" (by me as much as anyone) that the Pats didn't draft O linemen high (Light was a third, Koppen a fifth, Neal a UDFA college wrestler). They saw value in Mankins and got a guy who consistently beats the bejeebus out of opposing DLs.

I also assume that the Pats will trade many of their picks this year for future picks and higher picks, based on the lack of second-day choices sticking.

but I assume a lot of things with this team, without much success.

Light was not a Third, he was a Second. The Pats invested a 1st and 2 seconds and a third in their O-line in the 6 years that BB has been here. That is NOT neglecting O linemen.

They have certainly used Dante's teaching skills to take rejects with raw athletic ability that were not ready to play in the NFL, and "coached them up" and built up their bodies, on the PS. Most took several years and then got to be better than adequate pros starters.

Britt was an injured slip to fifth by SD and cut; Gorin was raw GB seventh and cut; Ashworth a converting TE UDFA by SD? and cut; as was Oldenburg a converting TE by NE this year. Hochstein was a TB 5th who was cut. Remember Sapps' derision? He remembered him as a TB rookie, who simply wasn't ready to play in the NFL. Yates was a NE UDFA project who has evolved into a fair spare G.

We all remember the NCAA champion Wrestler from Cal Bakersfield who never played college or pro football and has become a red chip, just below Pro bowl level RG, in Steve Neal. No one hand wrestles better than him, or pulls with more agility and body control either.

It seems to me BB is doing the same looking for DL depth after spending three early firsts on his DL front line starters. Jarvis is the best non-starting DL in the league. Lekevin opened my eyes this preseason; So has Santonio Thomas. ST has stuffed two big third and shorts this year, forcing punts. Wright came out of nowhere and Cincinnati? Kareem looks like he has the athleticism and size, does he have the heart? There is no more room at the Inn, just like the OL...

I don't think there is much mystery to what BB does with the LBs. He had several good ones when he started to rebuild. He simply needed to spend his efforts on more immediate concerns, and more immediate holes.

There haven't been many great ones that fit his 3-4, that have been available to him where he drafted, the past couple of years. The only ones that he passed on are Manny Lawson, the OLB that SF took after BB thought Maroney was a better player and was a higher need as he saw Dillon up close and knew he was fading before we fans could. The other was the OLB, Karlos Dansby, that the Cards took after BB decided he liked the talent of TE Watson better, and Fauria was fading.

BB has patched at LB with several fading pros; there are two more such, on the roster now in Jr. and Chad. He has lured a couple ready to play guys in Colvin and Thomas. He saw the opportunities and he took them . But no more than what he did at RB with Dillon, or WR with Stallworth, Moss and Welker, Caldwell, or Gaffney. Or TE with Kyle Brady. Or CB with Chad Scott or Torey James or Artrell Hawkins, et cetera.

Will BB invest in a young LB in the next draft? Who knows? But we do know that he will insure via draft, FA signing or trade, that he has a group of LB who can all play. Meanwhile he has developed some youngsters. Matt Chatham, TBC, turned in to valuable reserves, and is working on Pierre Woods, Eric Alexander and perhaps Mays. (Too bad they lost the SMU kid)

 

[Fencer]

So where are all the corners that were drafted high? Prove me wrong.

Wilson played CB in college, was trained primarily at CB his rookie offseason, and was moved to safety only as a surprise third option after Lawyer Milloy was cut and Antawn Harris stank it up.

Meriweather, while he did play safety in college, played most of his rookie offseason at CB. Right now he seems to stand 4th on the depth chart at each of safety and CB, or maybe 5th at safety behind Willie Andrews too, so once Rodney comes back he seems to have a better chance of seeing the field at CB than at S.