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Some Fans never Change....

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by AzPatsFan, Mar 11, 2012.

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  1. AzPatsFan

    AzPatsFan Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    Fans are predictable and some types never seem to change. The first type falls in love with some FA star who may or may not fit the Patriots, and dream of him wearing the Flying Elvis.

    The Second type is the self annointed draft guru, and unacknowledged GM genius, in their own eyes. These types of fans can always find a unheralded collegian who is virtually certain to be a super duper star when taken as a UDFA. Or fall in love with a collegian who will not fall outside the Top Ten. These fans then complain that Belichick will not trade away all his picks and wreck his economic roster, to go up and get him.

    Both of these types of fans consider Belichick a dolt, or an incipient Alzheimer's patient, and a failure in not seeing or sharing their genius, and trading an entire draft to secure their favorites.

    They are always doomed to be disappointed.


    Belichik never does so, because he knows he has a limited pot of money that must stretch in order to have average or better than average players for 53-65 positions. He wins that way, especially late in the season as rosters get decimated with injuries, and he still has capable substitute players.

    These fans never consider that at all. They think the team should be made up of only superstar starters and never realize you can't do that with a limited pot of money.

    Belichick's genius lays in fitting that many players who can play, into the available pot of money.

    Belichick knows he will always be picking late, since he wins. So more then most, he takes advantage of every opportunity includng obtaining more picks, and harvesting a draft year position that is in surplus, expecting to pick up a player that would ordinarily never be available to him.

    For example. Wilfork fell to him and he snatched him up. Seldom can you obtain a Probowl quality Left Tackle or QB without spending a Top Ten draft selection. But Belichick found two Left Tackles in Seabass and Solder, the past few years and neither one cost anywhere near a Top Ten pick. One has already been to a Probowl, as a Right Tackle, and the other as a rookie showed he is sure to go.

    If Ryan Mallett were coming out this Draft, instead of last, he would have been a sure Top Five pick, after seeing what the Redskins paid to have a chance at RGIII. I consider Mallett to be a great and rare physical talent, who may or may not have the IQ and/or leadership skills to excell as a QB. However, he does appear to have the right work habits at least, and I will certainly defer to Belichick in warranting his QB knowledge.

    In that sense, he is similar to Matt Casse, in having the talent but maybe not the head or experience. Hoyer was also a target of opportunity, as a UDFA, who appears to have a QB's mind, but maybe not enough of a QB's arm.

    This season it seems that OLB is a position of draft surplus, after many years of drought. I expect Belichick will harvest a couple, if they fall to him, even though he has developed a few himself, missed on a few, and gave up too soon on Jeremy Mincey who went to the Probowl this past season.

    Similarly there are a few DE who are not superstars, but can probably play, and he may grab one, if he falls. He needs some Safeties but there are few to none. I expect he might consider drafting a big but less highly regarded CB, and convert him. Trumaine is an example of someone who has some CB coverage ability, but is big enough to play Safety. Or he may simply wait till next year, for a better selection.

    Of interest, there are several very good ILBs, with size, and one may fall. Will Bill take one even though the position is now pretty well stocked?
     
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2012
  2. Joker

    Joker PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I was a big time advocate of drafting Mincey...got slaughtered by the "experts" here and almost laughed off the board when he was shipped out...been watching his career since....I would say I was right about his talent...too bad he didn't fit here...
     
  3. AzPatsFan

    AzPatsFan Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    I don't think many fans understand that seldom can you draft then immediately play a LB. Only the superstars do so, and even they need a few years of experience to really excell.

    For mere mortals, it can take as much as five years to mature a LB.

    Jeremy Mincey and even our current Robert Ninkovich took that long. People forget that Tedy Bruschi also took that long, while Mike Vrabel needed four years too, with three of them in Pittsburg. Mike Anderson is five or six years into a career, and finally began transforming from a third down rush specialist into a OLB/DE.

    I expect that Cunningham may begin to get it this next season, if he gets it at all. Still I think Hightower or Upshaw would look good in a Pats uniform, as well.
     
  4. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Well, you have to consider he played something like 9 games in his first 3 years after being released. He was barely ahead of where Shawn Crable was at the same point, so its kind of hard to call him an opportunity lost, he just needed a long developmental period, and we didn't have the space. We also ended up a 43 DE and we were trying to turn him into a 34 OLB
     
  5. Joker

    Joker PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I NEVER said anything that you are claiming I did...what I printed was "I was a big time advocate of drafting Mincey"..the reason being that I thought, from watching him play and reading up on his measurables and stats, that he possessed the talent to play in the NFL.

    I never said he fit the scheme nor did I say he should have played here, only that, as a SIXTH round pick,he was worth the shot just to find out.I was shouted down, berated and mocked by some of the "expert" members here for even thinking he should have been drafted....now, it would seem, I am sort of vindicated...if you consider a player making the Pro Bowl any kind of justification for being drafted
     
  6. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Um, I didn't claim you said anything, other than copying in your post.

    I understand that

    Again, I understand that and have no quarrel with it.

    OK.
    I was just adding commentary to what you said.
     
  7. Joker

    Joker PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    understood...nothing personal, Andy...just a little short tempered today
     
  8. puffyme

    puffyme On the Roster

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    Draft results are impossible to predict
     
  9. Nikolai

    Nikolai Football Atheist PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #54 Jersey

    Yep, that's why I stay out of those draft threads for the most part, especially on draft day. A lot of people get a little Borges-esque on this board (see my sig below).
     
  10. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Not at all. You just appoint yourself a draft expert, study up, pick 30 or 40 of them you really really like, declaim the idiotic strategy that resulted in each of them not being picked by your team, in turn, then one to three years later list the picks that panned out, in order, juxtaposed against the actual pick the Pats took.

    Both of them.

    Then you proudly and loudly exclaim how you watched them pick person X, person Y, and person Z, none of whom were as good as the 1 or 2 you got right.

    Presto. Armchair draft genius.
     
  11. Joker

    Joker PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I can do all of that...OK, when is my interview for Kiper's spot on ESPN?
     
  12. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Disable Jersey

    And, yet, they are predicted, accurately, by some every year.
     
  13. Tunescribe

    Tunescribe PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #61 Jersey

    I'd think that being a serious Patriots fan would pretty much cure anyone of being a draftnik. I don't follow pre-draft analyses hardly at all anymore, although I do watch some of the combine and do watch the draft itself. BB has turned me off putting time and study into pre-draft stuff in general.
     
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2012
  14. patsfan-1982

    patsfan-1982 In the Starting Line-Up

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    you lost me when you said Ryan Mallett would have been a top 5 pick in this years Draft ? he was not even a 2th round pick in a year that Blaine Gabbert went in the top 10. the kid may turn out to be a good QB but he has shown notting that says he's a top 5 pick
     
  15. patfanken

    patfanken Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    #91 Jersey

    I think AZ is being a little harsh on the "draft gurus" and quasi-GM's (I don't work hard enough to be one of the former group, though I find it too much fun not be one of the latter. ;) ). I think at this stage of the game most discerning Pats fans understand they don't know enough to accurately guess what BB's board looks like for both the draft and FA. And Pats fans who think that BB is a "dolt" are very rare..

    AZ, predicting the draft and FA is pretty much all we have to talk about until August, so you should give some slack to those of us who actively practice the fine art of blind speculation.....and enjoy it.

    I would agree that there are some of us who practices the mean art of 20-20 hindsight in criticizing BB. I too agree that for the most part its unfair, but OTOH, its also part and parcel of being a "fan".,

    And as to Jerome Mincy. He is just ANOTHER example why fans who are hoping the Pats grab Andre Branch or who hope Marcilus will be there are likely to be disappointed......AGAIN. It simply takes too long for a college DE to develop into the kind of OLB that BB is looking for.

    Even if you are lucky enough to pick on that works out, by the time you get him to the point where he is producing for you, he will be ready for FA. In other words you spent 4 years training someone else's OLB. Better to let another team do the training. Better value to find the next Ninko/Vrabel in some low or mid level FA.
     
  16. PatsGuy

    PatsGuy On the Game Day Roster

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  17. AzPatsFan

    AzPatsFan Experienced Starter w/First Big Contract

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    [chuckle chuckle...] Exactly !! [... chuckle]
     
  18. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Let us return to 2008 for another illustration of the point... and to beat the dead horse...

    2008 NFL Draft - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    "BB picked Terrence Wheatley when Jamaal Charles was still on the board" is a much more stinging indictment than "BB picked Terrence Wheatley when Terrell Thomas was still on the board."

    Face it -- some draftnik somewhere thought Terrell Thomas was the sh1t. Or "OMG BB traded up to get Jerod Mayo at 10, and totally whiffed on Antoine Cason (and traded up to do it!!!)"

    God knows how some other team's fans play this game... do JEST fans think Vernon Gholston set the world on fire??? Mayo was still on the board yanno!

    Nobody remembers a draftnik's whiffs. That's why they think they're better than the team itself - which is on the record with every pick.

    feh.
     
  19. PatsFanInVa

    PatsFanInVa PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Depends. Did you or did you not ever say "WE COULD HAVE TRADED UP FOR AKILI SMITH"?

    (Or Tim Couch... or Eric Crouch...)

    Or wait I know... Jeff freakin George?
     
  20. PatsFan24

    PatsFan24 In the Starting Line-Up

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    The draft is the most over hyped thing about the NFL. A bunch of fat drunk balding know it alls are going to get together to drink beer and eat wings while watching endless hours of teams they don't like draft players they have never heard of. Then moments after it happens they are going to comment about how stupid the team was to pick so and so because somehow by watching ESPN and reading message boards they know more about football than the coaches and GM's who put 100 hours a week into it. **** the draft.
     
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