Some Context on the Defense

[Metaphors]

To put the context in some context:

1.) Flacco 27 for 35, 285 and 2 TDs

2.) Rivers 34 for 50, 336 and 1/1 TD/Int

It wasn't the Patriots defense stopping the Chargers, for the most part. It was the Chargers offense making boneheaded plays (rookie leaving ball after what would have been a college "down", but is not one in the NFL: Chargers players standing by after a backward pass and just allowing the Patriots to pick it up).

Here are their drives when not down by 2 scores (grouped by success):

Flacco
9 plays for 73 yds, 5 first downs, TD
3 plays for 36 yds, 2 first downs, TD
13 plays for 84 yds, 4 first downs, FG
15 plays for 81 yds, 5 first downs, FG
7 plays for 35 yds, 2 first downs, Punt
5 plays for 28 yds, 2 first downs, Punt
4 plays for 27 yds, 1 first down, Punt
3 plays for 5 yds, 0 first downs, Punt
3 plays for 4 yds, 0 first downs, Punt
3 plays for 0 yds, 0 first downs, Punt
3 plays for 9 yds, 0 first downs, Punt
3 plays for 3 yds, 0 first downs, Punt
3 plays for 5 yds, 0 first downs, Punt

13 drives
4 solid ones (2 TD, 2FG)
3 functional ones (changed field position)
6 pieces of crap

Rivers
11 plays for 36 yds, 3 first downs, FG
8 plays for 43 yds, 3 first downs, Fumble
4 plays for 39 yds, 1 first downs, Fumble
5 plays for 15 yds, 1 first down, Missed FG
4 plays for 13 yds, 1 first down, Punt
3 plays for 8 yds, 0 first downs, Punt
3 plays for 4 yds, 0 first downs, Fumble
3 plays for -7 yds, 0 first downs, Interception

8 drives
3 solid ones (FG, 2 TOs)
5 pieces of crap

For both of them, about half of their drives were complete garbage. They both had good games, which they should given they are quality QBs for likely playoff teams. However, they hardly sliced through the Pats defense at will.

I'm not trying to blow sunshine up anyone's posterior. The Pats defense is young, gaining experience but still not able to do everything that Belichick and fans would like them to do. However, it seems that people have lost the ability to distinguish between truth (reality as your eyes see it) and truthiness (reality as your gut feels it).

 

[RayClay]

This is a great proof of the Belichick belief in "Bend but don't Break" Defense. Belichick is enlisting the opponent's Offense in burning the clock.

Because winning the game is the object, not "protecting a lead". Interesting fact that Manning's longest pass in our victory was 28 yards. Given that he was balls to the wall early, due to our lead, doesn't our strategy to force more shorter passes, giving a chance for more interceptions (3) and less quick strikes (28 yards tops for Manning) make sense?

The mistake here is trying to measure a known outcome against a hypothetical outcome. I could as easily say tighter coverage would have led to 4 or more passes of over 30 yards and 6 TDs instead of three, given Mannings known proclivity for completing long passes.

 

[BTTA]

This is one of the better posts this year.

Someone should post this over on GangGreen just to see what they do with it.

 

[Metaphors]

This is one of the better posts this year.

Someone should post this over on GangGreen just to see what they do with it.

They would call it delusional and quote defensive yardage rankings as a counter-argument. I was hoping this thread...and the many insightful posts by folks that die a little inside every time they read the garbage about how the Pats defense is terrible and Belichick's time is past...would establish a middle ground, where the Pats can have a young defense that has flaws and struggles situationally but still have a defense that is talented enough to win games, a tough division and maybe a championship.

 

[ALP]

To put the context in some context:

1.) Flacco 27 for 35, 285 and 2 TDs

2.) Rivers 34 for 50, 336 and 1/1 TD/Int

It wasn't the Patriots defense stopping the Chargers, for the most part. It was the Chargers offense making boneheaded plays (rookie leaving ball after what would have been a college "down", but is not one in the NFL: Chargers players standing by after a backward pass and just allowing the Patriots to pick it up).

now break that down to when we were up by 14 or more and when we were not (or 10 if you like that better)

 

[Kid~Brady]

Peter King is on EEI saying that he thinks that McCourty will give Holmes problems all day given his rapid improvements since early this season.

 

[Kasmir]

Very interesting post. If anyone had premium access to Football Outsiders database (I don't), I believe you could run exactly this analysis expressed as defensive DVOA and compare it to the league averages. The claim that the Patriot's defense is anomalously bad when playing with leads is a strong one, but needs to be compared to other defenses in the same situations to be meaningful.

Personally, I think this is all about the Gary Guyton effect

More seriously, I think when Spikes, Chung and the "bigs" are out there we play a more "break but don't bend" style defense. When Guyton, Sanders, and the "smalls" are out there we play a "bend until you break" defense

 

[doesntmatter1]

Words can't explain how much i think Guyton sucks and to a lesser degree myron pryor and TBC. I dont think it is a coincidence that our run defense is much better ever since pryor got hurt.

 

[Ring 6]

Words can't explain how much i think Guyton sucks and to a lesser degree myron pryor and TBC. I dont think it is a coincidence that our run defense is much better ever since pryor got hurt.

If in fact our run defense is better with Pryor hurt, which I'm not sure is true, it would be coincidence because Pryor only plays on passing downs.

 

[Ring 6]

Since the bye week, the Pats have faced 4 top teams with offenses at or near top 10 quality...BAL, SD, PIT and IND. For those games, if you look at the opposing drives in the context of the game score:

Pats up by 1 score
12 drives: 1 TD, 4 turnovers, 5 punts
Average drive: 6 plays, 27 yards, 2 first downs

Pats tied
9 drives: 2 FGs, 1 turnover, 6 punts
Average drive: 6 plays, 24 yards, 1 first down

Pats down by 1 score
8 drives: 1 TD, 1 FG, 1 turnover, 5 punts
Average drive: 5 plays, 25 yards, 1 first down

Or to aggregate all the drives except those with a 2-score lead for the Pats:

29 drives: 2 TDs, 3 FGs, 6 turnovers, 16 punts
Average drive: 6 plays, 26 yards, 1 first down

Now the drives where the Pats have more than an 8 point lead:

17 drives: 9 TDs, 2 FGs, 2 turnovers, 2 punts
Average drive: 7 plays, 54 yards, 3 first downs

Now there are 2 observations you can make here:

1) Wow, the Pats have been protecting a nice lead a lot. To give some context, over the same time period (6 games with only GB being a playoff team) the Jets had a 2-score lead for only 4 drives in the Texans game and 6 drives in the Bengals game.

2) Wow, the results are pretty different between defending a 2-score lead and any other situation. Even though the average drive is only 1 more play, the results are double the yards with over a 50% chance of getting into the end zone.

I have no intention of resurrecting the "Prevent Defense" thread, so please refrain. My point is that against top teams, at home and on the road, the Pats defense has done remarkably well when the score is close. When the Pats start to pull away and the opposing offense has a sense of urgency and no desire to punt, the defense has had problems.

By lumping these two situations together, especially considering how often the Pats defense has been defending a solid lead, it kind of muddies the picture. The Pats absolutely have to do better when protecting a lead. But if they can build on the success they have had in other game situations, I'm thinking they have a reasonable chance for success looking forward.

This is an excellent analysis, and very pertinent.
The point of playing football is to win the game. Cumulative stats mean nothing, except that they are ONE way to measure the overall performance, and by no means the only or a complete way to measure performance.
Whether you can discern a prevent defense or not is irrelevant, because it is obvious that the defense plays a different style with a lead.
People are trying to use the yardage stats, and the performance of the defense with a lead to PROJECT that for some reason they will playthat way in a future close game. I would think using how they play in close games is a better way to predict how they will play in a future close game.
This analysis shows that if the Patriot offense was not scoring as many points, the Patriot defense would not be allowing as many points.

 

[Fencer]

What's remarkable is that they're so weak at takeaways with a big lead.

That said, the takeaways numbers seem a little low -- only 8 all season in all situations except the Pats down by a lot of points? That would suggest there have been 11 takeaways when the Pats are trailing big, which is more than I recall.

 

[Ring 6]

What's remarkable is that they're so weak at takeaways with a big lead.

That said, the takeaways numbers seem a little low -- only 8 all season in all situations except the Pats down by a lot of points? That would suggest there have been 11 takeaways when the Pats are trailing big, which is more than I recall.

The numbers posted are not for the entire season so far, just 4 specific games vs top teams.

 

[Fencer]

The numbers posted are not for the entire season so far, just 4 specific games vs top teams.

That would also explain why the total drive count was so low.

Thanks!