Welcome to PatsFans.com

So who in the Front 7 is a keeper for next season?

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by Fencer, Jan 2, 2011.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2006
    Messages:
    7,608
    Likes Received:
    3
    Ratings:
    +3 / 0 / -0

    At ILB, Mayo and Spikes are obviously staying. Guyton has made a lot of plays. Fletcher has come in for high praise. If you want to count White at this position, he's staying too. (5, counting the STer)

    At OLB, Cunningham, Ninkovich, and TBC are obviously in the rotation and staying. (3)

    On the DL, Wilfork, Ty Warren, and Wright are obviously core players. Brace is surely coming back, and G. Warren seems very likely. (5, and I'm not done yet).

    Other guys who've put in good claims for a roster spot include Deaderick, Love, Pryor, and Moore. (4 more, although not all of them have to stay.)

    My temptation is to say that among the most vulnerable of the group are the ones of whom one says "If he's in on a running down, the team has a weakness" -- i.e., some of Guyton, Wright, Pryor, and Moore, specifically the least established of those, namely Pryor and Moore. It's also not obvious that Love or Fletcher have played except on a "last man standing" basis. So I see Love, Fletcher, Pryor, and Moore as the most likely to not make the team next year, with others being more at risk of being bumped down the depth chart at worst, rather than outright cut/left off the team.

    My total list was 16 regular-downs guys plus one pure STer. That's about as high as the headcount is apt to get for the Front 7; indeed, I'd expect it to be about 1 lower. So it looks like there really are only 3 or so jobs up for grabs.

    By way of comparison, new on or around Opening Day this year were, from memory:


    • White
    • Spikes
    • Cunningham
    • G. Warren
    • Deaderick
    • Love
    • Not yet Fletcher (PS)
    I don't recall Crable or McKenzie as belonging on the list.

    How'm I doing? :)
  2. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2005
    Messages:
    23,735
    Likes Received:
    47
    Ratings:
    +53 / 0 / -1

    #50 Jersey

    Fletcher isn't eligible for the practice squad. He's played in more than 9 games. Neither are Love or Deaderick.

    White is a UFA. I hope the Pats sign him to an extension because he's be the clear leader of the special teams unit. Something we haven't had since Izzo left.

    To be brutally honest.. I don't see TBC making the roster next year if the Pats draft another OLB, which I believe they will. He's just not been that good. Ninkovich has made huge leaps in his ability and I think is much more solid as an OLB than TBC. And Moore brings more to the table than TBC does.

    The front 7 takes up 16-18 spots on the defensive side of the roster.

    D-Line: Ty Warren, G. Warren, V. Wilfork, Pryor, Deaderick, Love, Brace
    OLB: Cunningham, Moore, Ninkovich, PTBN
    ILB: Mayo, Spikes, Guyton, Fletcher

    ST: White*

    Players outside looking in: Cohen, Wright, Weston, Richard, TBC

    Now, the reason I list Wright where I do is because of his injury situation. The fact that it's been 6 weeks and he's not recovered doesn't bode well for a concussion. They are very tricky things.. He could recover and win his job back.. He could also never play another snap again.. OR, He could be the 17th player in the front 7 that the Pats keep.

    Fletcher has been very good on special teams and has improved weekly when he's seen regular snaps..
  3. MustaphaM0nd

    MustaphaM0nd Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 11, 2010
    Messages:
    381
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    The only people whose jobs are really safe next year are Wilfork, Cunningham, Mayo, and Spikes. BB will do what it takes to upgrade this football team.
  4. RayClay

    RayClay Rookie

    Joined:
    Nov 14, 2005
    Messages:
    17,518
    Likes Received:
    40
    Ratings:
    +49 / 0 / -1

    #75 Jersey

    I wasn't going to say it but...Moore seems to want it and he's physical. TBC seemed tremendous statistically last year but he looks like a permanent spin move to nowhere this year. I don't see them drafting big at olb/de due to bust potential, but they will continue to add vets or acquire affordable players until one or more sticks IMO.

    Won't even guess on DL. Since i think they go all out for a monster DL if available in the draft, you have a hopefully recovered Ty, maybe Gerard and Brace and the draft pick.

    If so, I think the opposite, Fencer. Rather than an "almost as good as" DL, probably a change of pace rushing DL like Pryor will make it.
  5. Brandon_Cox

    Brandon_Cox Rookie

    Joined:
    Apr 27, 2009
    Messages:
    13
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    I'm looking for my main man Darryl Richard to make the team and be a star.

    (OK, I might have an ever so slight Georgia Tech bias:D).
  6. MustaphaM0nd

    MustaphaM0nd Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 11, 2010
    Messages:
    381
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    I wasn't going to say it either, but TBC might be a goner. Ninkovich and Cunningham have clearly surpassed him at OLB, and Moore has been more effective as a sub rusher. Committing rash penalties at bad times more than once this year won't help either. He's also tying up a lot of cap space for a player of his impact.
    At this point anyone young we pick up over the offseason who can't beat him for a roster spot next season doesn't deserve to be on the team.
  7. crowell33

    crowell33 Rookie

    Joined:
    Apr 19, 2007
    Messages:
    2,535
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    FWIW, it seemed that #98 Moore was lining up at OLB today.
  8. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2006
    Messages:
    7,608
    Likes Received:
    3
    Ratings:
    +3 / 0 / -0

    So the argument is that the OLB/nickel DE group will be Cunningham/Ninkovich/Moore/Somebody Else, and the Somebody Else will be a high-upside young guy rather than TBC?

    I can see the logic in that. TBC has had a rough season. On the other hand, who has BB ever had as a high-pick draftee who's ever worked smoothly into the role? My list is approximately Jermaine Cunningham, Willie McGinest (whether or not he predated BB/Parcells by a year), and Lawrence Taylor, which is not exactly a large group.
  9. PATSYLICIOUS

    PATSYLICIOUS Rookie

    Joined:
    Dec 21, 2007
    Messages:
    10,961
    Likes Received:
    5
    Ratings:
    +8 / 0 / -0

    #12 Jersey

    I'd think Pryor is definitely in the keeper list. Not sure what to think of Deadrick's chances next year. Kind of discouraging he hasn't been able to get many snaps down the stretch with all the DL injuries there are. At the same time, way too early on him as we saw with Brace's progress to year 2. I'd imagine there will be a pick spent on the DL to push him for one of the last few spots or [hopefully] a stud like Seymour/Warren/Wilfork. Also expect a pick at OLB to at least compete with TBC/Moore at that position. ILB seems pretty set as is.
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2011
  10. mcsully

    mcsully Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 14, 2004
    Messages:
    2,040
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    I know its early to say but whats the over/under on Ty Warren staying with the team next year?

    Brace looked solid and much improved.. G. Warren is a nice surprise.. Pryor and Deadrick have take minor steps in the right direction. With that being said, if we use a high pick on a DL, what the answer to my initial question.
  11. MustaphaM0nd

    MustaphaM0nd Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 11, 2010
    Messages:
    381
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    The newcomer doesn't have to immediately be our best guy at the position, he just has to beat out TBC.
  12. BradyFTW!

    BradyFTW! PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2007
    Messages:
    16,254
    Likes Received:
    8
    Ratings:
    +11 / 0 / -0

    #12 Jersey

    I'd be pretty shocked if Ty Warren got cut over the offseason. Even if he's 80% of the player he used to be, he'd still be the second-best player on the line by a not-insignificant margin. If the hip has really been hampering his production for several years, and the surgery fixes it, we could very well see a 2008-Seymour level of resurgence (he won't be as good as Seymour, of course, since he never was- just a lot better than 2009). Tough to really predict anything with big guys and hip injuries, though.
  13. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2006
    Messages:
    7,608
    Likes Received:
    3
    Ratings:
    +3 / 0 / -0

    Good point re Deaderick not being a lock.
    Pryor certainly could make it, but he's hardly a lock either.

    We can't be sure until he returns, but I'd think it's very likely T. Warren is on the team next year. Worst case is that the need to replace him is accelerated, adding pressure to find the next big DL stud.
  14. Joker

    Joker PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2004
    Messages:
    16,128
    Likes Received:
    36
    Ratings:
    +56 / 2 / -2

    did I miss something??..is the season over for the Patriots?
  15. Sciz

    Sciz PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Jul 13, 2009
    Messages:
    7,095
    Likes Received:
    5
    Ratings:
    +13 / 0 / -0

    Well, Bill isn't keeping more than 7 DL. With TWarren coming back, we'll assume Deaderick is gone. That means a rookie needs to beat out Love/Pryor/GWarren for a spot on the DL.

    Personally, I love all of the ILBs. Mayo is Mayo. Spikes is a great 2-down ILB who can make some plays in coverage. Guyton is a great playmaker as a subpackage linebacker. Fletcher is a special teamer, subpackage ILB, and situational pass-rusher. White is a stud special teamer.

    At OLB, Cunningham is a given. Ninkovich might be best in more of a subpackage role, but is a better pass-rusher than most give him credit for. TBC, in my mind, needs to be a subpackage DE and nothing more, but Moore seems to be better at that. I wouldn't be surprised to see those 4 stick, plus a rookie, like Aldon Smith (who I love).

    Summary:
    TWarren over Deaderick
    A rookie over Pryor/GWarren
    A rookie added at OLB
  16. PatsWickedPissah

    PatsWickedPissah PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2005
    Messages:
    22,515
    Likes Received:
    75
    Ratings:
    +86 / 0 / -0

    Disable Jersey

    With BB, the Patriots don't really have keepers, just like they don't have defensive back slots for guys who don't tackle. Each camp everyone contends for a position. OK this absolute is modified by contract situations where a more expensive waning productivity vet say like TBC might get cut for someone who's demonstrably on the upside in camp.
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2011
  17. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2006
    Messages:
    7,608
    Likes Received:
    3
    Ratings:
    +3 / 0 / -0

    The regular season is, as are >80% of the games that count overall.

    What's more, the games that remain are going to be the most heavily game-planned of all, which may make them the least reliable as guides to who should or will be back.
  18. Fencer

    Fencer Rookie

    Joined:
    Oct 2, 2006
    Messages:
    7,608
    Likes Received:
    3
    Ratings:
    +3 / 0 / -0

    You're saying there's room for 12 guys at DL + OLB, but if so then then 5 of them are in the OLB/outside rusher slots.

    Since at least 2/5 of the DL + OLB guys on the field on any given down are likely to be OLBs and/or edge-rushing sub DEs, you have a point.

    OK. If you're right that there's a max of 7 "true" DL, then that's probably 5+ very beefy guys and 1-2 interior rushing specialists who, even if they do play on running downs, are a bit light at the point of attack.

    Health permitting, Wright is a near-lock at interior rushing specialist, and Wilfork, T. Warren, and Brace are as beefy guys. I find all the praise for G. Warren this year to be pretty persuasive, so I think he's likely to be back -- however, I must admit that since he'll be a FA, it's not a given. (Perhaps he'll go elsewhere for more money and reps now that BB has rehabilitated him -- it worked for Gaffney.)

    I don't think any of Love, Deaderick, or Pryor has done enough to make them near locks to be back.

    So yeah -- if the right value is there, this could indeed be a time to draft another big guy high.
  19. condon84

    condon84 Rookie

    Joined:
    Aug 8, 2008
    Messages:
    4,202
    Likes Received:
    3
    Ratings:
    +3 / 0 / -0

    On the DL, Wilfork, Ty Warren, Brace, and Wright are probably shoe-ins for a roster simply because of their contracts. The other guys like Deaderick, Pryor, Love, G. Warren all have contributed and have looked solid but anything is possible outside of the main guys. Gerrard has played great, but with his age, I don't know if you can expect for him to be as productive as he has been this year.

    I think our ILBs are set with Mayo, Spikes, Guyton, and Fletcher. That's a pretty good combination of different talents.

    For OLBs, the locks are Cunningham and Ninkovich. TBC has showed some burst rushing the passer but is too inconsistent against the run. Moore has played himself into a legit shot at next year's roster too. I think this position will be addressed through the draft and free agency. Lamarr Woodley might be available if PIT doesn't franchise him.
  20. Sfpat

    Sfpat Rookie

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2010
    Messages:
    1,532
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    "Lamarr Woodley might be available if PIT doesn't franchise him."

    I don't see BB spending big money this off season on FA's
  21. mloyko

    mloyko Rookie

    Joined:
    Mar 5, 2007
    Messages:
    111
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    I would be shocked if we don't add at least one defensive lineman in the first 2 rounds of the draft. This is a very strong draft for 3-4 dlineman. I know we always say the "BB has to draft a pass rusher in round 1" but he never does, so I dont expect that to change this year.
  22. bruce_w

    bruce_w Rookie

    Joined:
    Aug 17, 2009
    Messages:
    60
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    This thread is hilarious. I feel like I'm reading the Jets forum.
  23. ALP

    ALP Rookie

    Joined:
    Oct 7, 2007
    Messages:
    7,401
    Likes Received:
    7
    Ratings:
    +7 / 0 / -0

    i also can see TBC gone, at this point cunningham and ninko are both safer than he is, and so far i would prob add moore to that list as well

    last year tully had a pretty good year, not so much this time around

    we let him go once, i expect the second time to be this offseason
  24. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Oct 10, 2006
    Messages:
    40,774
    Likes Received:
    64
    Ratings:
    +89 / 3 / -1

    Disable Jersey

    For the purposes of the question, I'm assuming that the labor problem is dealt with quickly, and no real time is lost....


    I figure BB will draft a DE and an OLB early, making them "keepers". Add in Wilfork and Ty Warren on the line, and Mayo, Cunningham, Spikes and Guyton at linebacker. That makes 8 "keepers", IMO.

    After that, I expect it will come down to OTAs and training camp.
  25. DaBruinz

    DaBruinz Pats, B's, Sox PatsFans.com Supporter

    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2005
    Messages:
    23,735
    Likes Received:
    47
    Ratings:
    +53 / 0 / -1

    #50 Jersey

    Ty Warren is actually underpaid for his position so I think that he's a guarantee to be back.. Not like Seymour who was looking for a salary in the double digit millions.

    Even if the Pats use a HIGH draft pick to get the RDE that would be Seymour's replacement, Ty Warren isn't going anywhere. He's one of the best run-stopping 3-4 DEs in the league. And that was when he was playing through all sorts of injuries..
  26. VJCPatriot

    VJCPatriot Rookie

    Joined:
    Apr 28, 2006
    Messages:
    12,304
    Likes Received:
    17
    Ratings:
    +23 / 1 / -0

    LOL. I was thinking the same thing. It seems people like to get ahead of themselves. The Pats haven't won anything yet folks. Nor have they been eliminated. Why don't we save the offseason talk for the offseason?

    I think it's pretty obvious who the keepers are likely to be:
    DL: Wilfork
    ILB: Mayo, Spikes
    OLB: Cunningham

    Everything else may change as necessary to fit new or better personnel. That doesn't mean that I think everyone outside of those guys will be cut. But I see those guys as core to the DL.

    I'm also not sure how well Warren will recover from his injury but I'm hoping he'll be back and at least 90% of his old self. I expect an early draft pick to be spent on the DL. And I expect BB to boggle the draft experts as well as our forum draft gurus when draft day finally rolls around. Lastly I expect an entertaining draft where the Pats make lots of moves as usual. Trader BB owns the draft. That's why we are set up so well each year. 6 picks in the first 3 rounds folks. That's a nice place to be. Of course the ultimate would be to pick at #32. ^_^
    Last edited: Jan 2, 2011
  27. Dufflebagz

    Dufflebagz Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2010
    Messages:
    1,573
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    No matter what Wilfork, Mayo, Cunningham, Spikes, and T Warren(good value) are safe. (small chance T Warren is gone, but I doubt it.

    TBC, G Warren, Deadrick, Pryor, and Moore are at the highest risk of leaving.

    I think everything stays the same at ILB, everything fits together too nicely to let it fall apart. Mayo, Spikes against the run, Guyton on passing downs, Fletcher is a STer and is solid when he gets opportunities.

    I think they will draft a solid OLB and they will end up keeping Moore and Ninkovich over TBC. Leaving Cunningham, Ninkovich, Moore, and the rookie.

    I see them taking a DT and a DE by the end of round 2. This is where the toughest losses will come. Wright has looked good and will stick, Brace has improved and will only be in his 3rd year so I see no reason to let him go. Then starts the battle between G Warren, Love, Deadrick, and Pryor. G Warren has been great but he's up there in years and his competition is young, he'll be gone. Between Pryor, Love and Deadrick I think Love is staying. Leaving Wilfork, Wright, Brace, T Warren, Love, and the two rookies.

    The only way I see things changing is if BB decides to take only 1 DL and OLB early, then taking another DL late, leaving the later pick to battle it out with Love, Deadrick, and Pryor, possibly sending Love home.
  28. the wrothbroughterer

    the wrothbroughterer Rookie

    Joined:
    Jan 11, 2010
    Messages:
    338
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    On the DL I'd like them to keep just about everyone except Gerard Warren. It's got nothing to do with his performance, just with his age and the production we got out of Brandon Deaderick he becomes expendable. His absence will open up a position for another set of fresh legs and I would seriously consider moving Ty Warren out of the starting rotation if Brace and Deaderick can both stay healthy and progress further in the offseason. If there is any trade value for him for some team aching for a 34 end but can't get one, I would like to see if we can pull the trigger and get a nice return.

    In the second level I want TBC out. He's too one dimensional, has made plenty of mistakes this year and Rob Ninkovich is playing like he belongs now. Any jerk can blitz and he's not even doing it that well. Time for him to GTFO.
  29. serifyn

    serifyn Rookie

    Joined:
    Apr 2, 2010
    Messages:
    716
    Likes Received:
    0
    Ratings:
    +0 / 0 / -0

    This team has great depth at the DL right now, the only thing they need is a blue chip 5-technique, the ILB is set and maybe the OLB could use an upgrade here or there. other than that, i dont know where the patriots go, i mean look at how many guys they have on IR.

    The patriots have 7 picks in the first 4 rounds, but can you really see them using all of these picks? they must either trade up or trade into the next years draft because right now there just isn't 7 open slots on the roster with all the guys coming back from IR.
  30. slash83

    slash83 Rookie

    Joined:
    Sep 2, 2006
    Messages:
    3,201
    Likes Received:
    6
    Ratings:
    +6 / 0 / -0

    A healthy and fresh Ty Warren next year is going to be bestly for this team.
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page