Discussion in 'Patriots Draft Talk' started by loofasisgeek, Dec 11, 2007.
The 49er naugerjaut hurtles toward earth.
This is probably their last best chance to win another game. They hosts the Bengals this week. I don't know if the Bengals will actually show up, but after that they have Tampa (who will need the game) and @ Cleveland (who will also need that game).
The fact that it's a primetime game doesn't help. The Bengals will be up for the game and will be looking to save face on the season. Of course, the same theoretically applies to both teams, but the Bengals were jsut recently a brash and proud group of players.
In case anybody's wondering about SF's #3: Shaun Hill is in his 6th year in the league, and last week threw his first pass.
TB can clinch div. title this week. They are 8-5. NO is 6-7. TB has defeated NO 2x so they win all tiebreakers. TB may not need SF game following week if they win this week. Might be a chance for SF in that game. TB beat up. And, might give some guys a week off.
good.. we are almost a lock at #2...
They'll likely be fighting Seattle for the 3rd/4th seed. Admittedly it's not a huge difference but a higher seed gets them a little better chance at a home NFCCG if both top two seeds are beaten. It's worth playing for, however unlikely.
I don't think we're a lock for #2 even if SF loses all their remaining games. There will be others also with a 3-13 record, and the opponents' strength of schedule tiebreaker that currently favors us could easily change. For example, if most of SF's 13 opponents win most of their remaining games, and most of the Jets' 13 opponents lose most of their remaining games, the Jets would move ahead of SF in draft order.
But we'll still be in the top 4 or 5 if SF loses all their games. But if they win one, we could slip to 8 or 9.
SF is almost guarennteed the worst SOS.
# Team W-L Opponents' W-L %
1 Miami 0-13 .548
2 New England (from San Francisco) 3-10 .481
3 St. Louis 3-10 .514
4 Atlanta 3-10 .519
5 New York Jets 3-10 .524
These are the SOS of all 16 opponents, No way that the Jets SOS goes down, as they have some team in their division that has yet to lose a game (and will not) . St, Louis and SF are in the same division so they play basically the same schedule EXCEPT TWO GAMES.
SF played the Giants and the Minnisota whereas..
St. Louis played Dallas and Green Bay.
So if the 49ers go 0-3. the pick will stay at #2.,
FWIW, the difference in records between SF and STL is 7 games (100-108 v. 107-101).
And, as someone else pointed out, the Pats will help out their own cause with respect to the JEST.
The Jets will beat the Chiefs the last week of the year.
If those numbers are true, then SF is a lock for the worst SOS. Consider that those numbers would only change if Dallas and Green Bay lost out and New Orleans and the Giants win out. The most they could swing is six either way, because all of their other opponents ar the same. So even if Dallas and Green Bay didn't win another game, the St. Louis' opponents would be 107-107 and if New Orleans and the Giants win out (which we all know isn't going to happen) San Fran's oppenents record would be 106-108. Still giving San Fran the worst SOS.
The Jets aren't even close with a SOS of 109-99, so bottom line if SF loses out, they will hand us the second pick in the '08 draft, unless anyone here thinks that Miami can win out and in that case it would be the #1 pick.
That's great news. I thought a couple of games either way would change the SOS, but that's not the case.
I think it comes down to this weekend. If Cinci can beat them, I think they'll lose the last two, and the #2 pick is ours. How sweet is that?
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