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Interest discussion. Here's my take
1. Unless someone can convince me that one of the CB's that might fall to us at #32 can be shut down CB, I'd have to pass on picking one that high.
I'm not sure I can think of a player in the last decade who was a "shut down CB" as a rookie. Revis didn't make the Pro Bowl until his 2nd season. Richard Sherman had a solid rookie year, but emerged as a top CB in his second season. Patrick Peterson was an immediate impact player. If your expectation is that any rookie CB is going to step in and play at a Pro Bowl/All Pro level as a rookie, then I think you are setting the bar too high. If it is a longer term expectation, that's different.
2. The rarest athlete on the planet is the impact player at 300+ lbs, either on the offensive or defensive lines, simply because there are so few of them. Given that, I would hope then that BB would eschew the knee jerk impulse to grab a CB, and stick to the policies that kept him on top and get the best OL/DL available that early (or in a trade down)
I strongly believe in NOT drafting for need, so I certainly don't advocate taking a CB just because there is a need at that position. With that said, I you have to evaluate prospects with some respect to where they would fit on your roster. If - simply as a hypothetical - the Pats had an equal draft grade on Byron Jones and Owamagbe Odighizuwa as prospects, I would expect them to favor the CB over the EDGE player because of the bigger positional need (whereas prior to FA I would have expected the opposite). The mistake would be to take a CB with a lesser grade over a player at another position with a higher grade.
I firmly believe that the most valuable players outside of CB are your lineman, so I'm all in favor of taking a lineman if they grade out equally. The problem is that I don't have the defensive lineman graded quite as highly. I'd rather take a 1st round talent at RB (Gurley) or CB (Peters) than reach for a so-so defensive tackle. I had a really high grade on Easley last year, so that was an easy call for me. This year isn't so clear cut. I'd be ok with Eddie Goldman at 32, but I don't think he's anywhere near the prospect that Peters or Gurley is. TJ Clemmings is probably the easiest "planet theory" option for me, as I think he has a chance to be a dominant OL, but he is a work in progress.
As for the rationale to "stick to the policies that kept him on top", BB did ok the last time he drafted a DB in the 1st round, back in 2010.
3. As far as I can see, the CB's are falling further and further behind the physical abilities of the WR's. Every year another half dozen or more 6'4 220 lbs giants get sprung on the league, yet the DB's aren't keeping up. Except for his length, Brandon Browner was nothing special as a CB.....but because of that length he became special....in the right system.
4. Maybe its time to take a lesson from the TE position, and dip into the Basketball world and find some 6'3-5 "althletes", who aren't going to make in the NBA and begin developing them into the NFL CB's of the future. Just a thought.
It's not a new thought. We've discussed it on this forum since the 2010 season when Gronk and Ahern set the standard for the multiple TE offense. Jeff Chadiha wrote a piece in which he quoted Tony Gonzalez discussing that basic idea:
Falcons tight end Tony Gonzalez joked that there are so many agile tight ends that teams may have to start scouting basketball games for safety talent. "Maybe they should find some 2-guard types, 6-foot-4 guys who can match up with tight ends," he said.
http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/page...ifts-big-physical-safety-more-versatile-model
We've discussed that and other articles about the mismatches between DBs and offensive skill players for a while now. Here's one example:
http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...e-patriots-and-the-big-nickel-defense.918437/
BB has discussed this too, IIRC. I believe he's said that the big problem with basketball converts is that while many of them have great hands and footwork, the majority just don't have enough foot speed. One of the top CB prospects this year, Quentin Rollins of Miami (Ohio), has just that concern.
5. So my question to the forum, IS there anyone out there, who fits the need. Is there a "shutdown CB" in this draft. I don't think so. And if not, isn't picking a lesser CB at 32 become a reach. Finally, is there another developmental big guy like Browner or Sherman out there that could be worth developing.
I think that there are 3 CBs who I would grade pretty highly:
- Marcus Peters is one of the 5-6 best man CB prospects in the past 6 years, along with Joe Haden, Patrick Peterson, Jimmy Smith and Kyle Fuller. I would give him a much higher grade than top 10 picks Morris Claiborne (#6, 2012), Marcus Gilmore (#10, 2012), Dee Milliner (#9, 2013) or Justin Gilbert (#8, 2014). I grade him higher than Trae Waynes, who will probably be the first CB off the board this year. There are some questions about his top end speed and athleticism (as there were with both Joe Haden and Kyle Fuller), and about his character, but I think he'd be a steal at 32. There was some discussion about whether he was good enough to warrant taking at 32 even when we thought we'd still have Revis and Browner.
- Kevin Johnson is very reminiscent of Devin McCourty in terms of his all around game - including special teams ability - but also has much more upside as a press-man CB.
- Byron Jones also has an all-around game to go with his amazing athleticism, and the kind of work ethic, leadership and smarts that BB generally covets. He may have the highest ceiling of any of the three.