Sign the Beast XXVIII -- the Andre Johnson thread

[JMC00]

I think the void between the Pats and Colts were vast this past year. They have closed the gap a bit, but I think the Pats are better.

I personally don't think the Colts were all that good last year. They just had a soft schedule. I don't think they had a lot of talent beyond Luck. Without him, they were a 5-6 win team. He carried that team. Their defense was awful. Their running game was non-existent. They really only had one good receiver past mid-season. They were lucky (again no pun intended) to face the Bengals and Broncos in the playoffs. I think the Steelers and Ravens would have crushed them.

I agree. Texans have really good chance to win the division, that defense has a year under RAC and will be better. BOB has 2 QBs that he pretty much groomed and know his system. They just need Foster to have a healthy year.

 

[Rob0729]

Texans have really good chance to win the division, that defense has a year under RAC and we'll be better. BOB has 2 QBs that he pretty much groomed and now his system. They just need Foster to have a healthy year.

You responded me before I edited my post. I agree that if the Texans can get decent QB play out of Mallett or Hoyer, they could win the division.

 

[supafly]

Gore is one of those guys whose downfall I've been predicting for so long (probably 4+ years now) that I've just given up on it. Eventually, he'll hit the wall. I have no idea when it will happen.

I agree, and I also believe that he'll hit the wall soon. Like you said, that could be this year, or in 2-3 yrs.

The fact that IND will be using him as a lead back and giving him a lot of carries tells me that he'd probably be a fine candidate for another 1,000 yd season for 2015. I think he's shown that he can still consistently carry the ball for 4.3 and 4.4 YPC average, although there are lots of other factors such as their OL etc.

 

[50-yard-line]

Well, if the Pats had signed Gore and Johnson, Langford and Trent Cole, I'd be like, "meh."

Gore is a good pass blocker, though. Lotta wear on those tires.

If the Pats had signed those guys for the kind of money the dolts are throwing around, I'd be crying. You can have Frank Gore at 4 million this year with a dead cap hit of 6.5. I'll take Blount at around 1 million.

Now don't get me wrong: this is going to be a messy year in the NFl because of the cash teams HAD to dole out. Teams are taking huge go-for-it risks because they're cash rich and have to spend it. It might pay off for one or two, but rarely does.

I'd rather have them taking this route in Indy with all that money than in actually building a strong and deep team around Luck.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I agree, and I also believe that he'll hit the wall soon. Like you said, that could be this year, or in 2-3 yrs.

The fact that IND will be using him as a lead back and giving him a lot of carries tells me that he'd probably be a fine candidate for another 1,000 yd season for 2015. I think he's shown that he can still consistently carry the ball for 4.3 and 4.4 YPC average, although there are lots of other factors such as their OL etc.

I think what works to Gore's advantage is that the skills that decline with age are skills that--as a pro, at least--he never really had in the first place. He's pretty quick, but his top end speed has always been terrible. He gets by mostly on vision, patience, strength and balance, and those are some of the last skills to leave you.

I could definitely see Gore struggling this year, but mostly because I don't have a lot of faith in Indy's line. If they aren't creating holes, it's not like Gore's going to bounce it outside or make anyone miss in the backfield.

 

[BradyFTW!]

Well, if the Pats had signed Gore and Johnson, Langford and Trent Cole, I'd be like, "meh."

Gore is a good pass blocker, though. Lotta wear on those tires.

If the Pats had signed those guys for the kind of money the dolts are throwing around, I'd be crying. You can have Frank Gore at 4 million this year with a dead cap hit of 6.5. I'll take Blount at around 1 million.

Now don't get me wrong: this is going to be a messy year in the NFl because of the cash teams HAD to dole out. Teams are taking huge go-for-it risks because they're cash rich and have to spend it. It might pay off for one or two, but rarely does.

I'd rather have them taking this route in Indy with all that money than in actually building a strong and deep team around Luck.

I sort of agree. If the Pats signed all of those guys for cheap, I would be happy, since I think all four of them would be either starters or major rotational contributors on this team. If the Pats signed all of those guys for the contracts they got, I would be trying to talk myself into it, but fundamentally pretty unhappy.

But that's kinda what the Colts do. They overpay for second-tier FA talent and pay for it by having zero depth. So then every offseason we compare their starters to other teams' starters and talk up how good they are, but then the season starts and one or two of their their mid-30s guys gets hurt, and suddenly some JAG CFL alum is starting in his place.

In this case, though, I do think that Cole and Langford are real upgrades at positions of real need on that defense. They'll shore up that DL quite a bit, to the point that when we play them this year we might even have to throw the ball a couple times. As a Pats fan, they worry me more than Gore and AJ do.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I cannot get over what a complete moron Ryan Grigson is. He is really like a dumb Indianapolis Colts fan cheering for the team. The moves he makes might as well been called in by the collective fan vote, which was polled during Entertainment Tonight- Indy Edition. That is the only explanation I have for this assclown. Why would anyone pay a guy like this to be a general manager when he is just going to chase after household name players and throw a bunch of money at them? Zero creativity or value creation; just read the Top 100 Free Agents List in USA Today and start bidding... this guy is really brilliant.

Every one of his free agent signings has this in common: they are all quickly spiraling into the final depths of their career. All of them have reached the point of complete regression and fall off at their respective positions, based on their age and production.

Trent Cole- 2 years, $16M. A perfect fit for Grigson's offseason theme: the old, dying veteran who has nothing left in the tank but will look good on paper. Trent Cole has 17.5 sackes in his last THREE seasons despite miraculously remaining healthy in a 32-year old body. Three straight seasons of subpar numbers isn't a trend, it's a career arc downwards. Cole is cooked. Not sure why you wouldn't go after a player whose ceiling isn't 6 sacks, especially for that money.

Frank Gore- 3 years, $12M. Just what the doctor ordered: a 32-year old running back with a history of injuries, almost 2,500 carries, just getting ready to wrap up his career. Gore is essentially guaranteed 9.5M, which assures he'll be on the Colts when he is 33 as well. I live in the Bay Area, so I know Gore, and he was a great player, and he is done now. He looks old and tired. You could easily draft a RB in the 4th round who will outproduce Gore this year.

Andre Johnson- 3 years, 21M. Are you FREAKIN kidding me? I don't care if the Chargers offered more; that contract, unless heavily, heavily backloaded is absolutely insane. Johnson will be 34 YEARS OLD this year; his yardage totals dropped by 500 yards in 2014. In other words, he has already hit what is known as a wide receiver's career death spiral. It's over. I was really hoping the Patriots would consider signing him for a one-year deal for absolutely no more than $4M. I thought there may be some team out there willing to give him something like $5M or $9M over two years. Belichick must be laughing at this one. This is NOT Andre Johnson of 2009; this is Andre Johnson of 2015. There are so many better, cheaper options than paying this money for a guy who is at absolute best an adequate #2 receiver. The Colts have replaced an over-the-hill Reggie Wayne with an over-the-hill Reggie Wayne clone.

 

[ausbacker]

Denver Broncos MK II

 

[BradyFTW!]

I cannot get over what a complete moron Ryan Grigson is. He is really like a dumb Indianapolis Colts fan cheering for the team. The moves he makes might as well been called in by the collective fan vote, which was polled during Entertainment Tonight- Indy Edition. That is the only explanation I have for this assclown. Why would anyone pay a guy like this to be a general manager when he is just going to chase after household name players and throw a bunch of money at them? Zero creativity or value creation; just read the Top 100 Free Agents List in USA Today and start bidding... this guy is really brilliant.

Every one of his free agent signings has this in common: they are all quickly spiraling into the final depths of their career. All of them have reached the point of complete regression and fall off at their respective positions, based on their age and production.

Trent Cole- 2 years, $16M. A perfect fit for Grigson's offseason theme: the old, dying veteran who has nothing left in the tank but will look good on paper. Trent Cole has 17.5 sackes in his last THREE seasons despite miraculously remaining healthy in a 32-year old body. Three straight seasons of subpar numbers isn't a trend, it's a career arc downwards. Cole is cooked. Not sure why you wouldn't go after a player whose ceiling isn't 6 sacks, especially for that money.

Frank Gore- 3 years, $12M. Just what the doctor ordered: a 32-year old running back with a history of injuries, almost 2,500 carries, just getting ready to wrap up his career. Gore is essentially guaranteed 9.5M, which assures he'll be on the Colts when he is 33 as well. I live in the Bay Area, so I know Gore, and he was a great player, and he is done now. He looks old and tired. You could easily draft a RB in the 4th round who will outproduce Gore this year.

Andre Johnson- 3 years, 21M. Are you FREAKIN kidding me? I don't care if the Chargers offered more; that contract, unless heavily, heavily backloaded is absolutely insane. Johnson will be 34 YEARS OLD this year; his yardage totals dropped by 500 yards in 2014. In other words, he has already hit what is known as a wide receiver's career death spiral. It's over. I was really hoping the Patriots would consider signing him for a one-year deal for absolutely no more than $4M. I thought there may be some team out there willing to give him something like $5M or $9M over two years. Belichick must be laughing at this one. This is NOT Andre Johnson of 2009; this is Andre Johnson of 2015. There are so many better, cheaper options than paying this money for a guy who is at absolute best an adequate #2 receiver. The Colts have replaced an over-the-hill Reggie Wayne with an over-the-hill Reggie Wayne clone.

I dunno if I'd use Johnson's yardage total as proof of a death spiral. This year coincided with a change in coach, a change in QB, and Hopkins surpassing him as the primary WR. These were all factors as well. I still think that Johnson is a probably 1,000 yard WR in the Colts offense, and he's definitely an upgrade over Reggie Wayne.

I agree that the contract appears stupid at first glance, though. Before he signed, I said that I could maybe talk myself into him if the Pats signed him for less than $5M per year for the next year or 2. 3/21 is really bad, unless it's mostly nonguaranteed and backloaded.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I dunno if I'd use Johnson's yardage total as proof of a death spiral. This year coincided with a change in coach, a change in QB, and Hopkins surpassing him as the primary WR. These were all factors as well. I still think that Johnson is a probably 1,000 yard WR in the Colts offense, and he's definitely an upgrade over Reggie Wayne.

I agree that the contract appears stupid at first glance, though. Before he signed, I said that I could maybe talk myself into him if the Pats signed him for less than $5M per year for the next year or 2. 3/21 is really bad, unless it's mostly nonguaranteed and backloaded.

I've heard the same thing about many receivers at that age. Chad Ochocinco, Joey Galloway, Terrell Owens, lots of formerly great receivers who supposedly are still good but are the victim of a new quarterback, change of scheme, etc. Baloney. The new coach and/or system would certainly utilize the players talent if they could; they are also trying to win games and keep their jobs. The most telling thing about Johnson is that he is 34 years old. Take a look at almost every receiver who is playing into their 30s. At some point, from the time he is between 31-35, there is a huge, steep down year in production and they never return to the same level. Okay, though, I understand your point... it's possible Johnson will put up 1,000 yards, I just certainly wouldn't be willing to risk it for likely over $10M guaranteed. So many other good players out there in their mid-20s who have played with bad QBs and are much better than you'd think.

 

[BradyFTW!]

I've heard the same thing about many receivers at that age. Chad Ochocinco, Joey Galloway, Terrell Owens, lots of formerly great receivers who supposedly are still good but are the victim of a new quarterback, change of scheme, etc. Baloney. The new coach and/or system would certainly utilize the players talent if they could; they are also trying to win games and keep their jobs. The most telling thing about Johnson is that he is 34 years old. Take a look at almost every receiver who is playing into their 30s. At some point, from the time he is between 31-35, there is a huge, steep down year in production and they never return to the same level. Okay, though, I understand your point... it's possible Johnson will put up 1,000 yards, I just certainly wouldn't be willing to risk it for likely over $10M guaranteed. So many other good players out there in their mid-20s who have played with bad QBs and are much better than you'd think.

All good points, but I'm going to counter them by pointing out that the following QBs started games for the Texans last year: Fitzpatrick (12), Mallett (2), Case Keenum (3).

Also, of the guys who you cited, Owens and Galloway were both productive receivers past their 35th birthday. If they're your comps, they suggest that Johnson probably has another 1-2 good years left in him.

 

[brdmaverick]

Last year I thought the Colts got the steal of free agency when they landed Hakeem Nicks at a 1yr 3 mil contract. He turned out to be a dud, hopefully AJ turns out to be the same.

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

My favorite stat is yards per target. I love it. I have used to to project the steep decline of other players, such as Wes Welker, last year, by just using this and showing his decline despite many objections from this board. This shows just how fast some of these guys are declining, although it's hard to tell because often their targets go up to keep them looking productive.

2008 Andre Johnson
170 targets, 1575 yards
Yards per target: 9.26

2009 Andre Johnson
170 targets, 1569 yards
Yards per target: 9.23

(injury in 2010)

2011 Andre Johnson
138 targets, 1216 yards
Yards per target: 8.81

2012 Andre Johnson
164 targets, 1598 yards
Yards per target: 9.74

2013 Andre Johnson
181 targets, 1407 yards
Yards per target: 7.77

2014 Andre Johnson
147 targets, 936 yards
Yards per target: 6.37

Look at the huge dropoff from his 2012 season to his 2013 season when he turned 32, and then from his 2013 season to his 2014 season when he turned 33. He isn't coming back. In 2013, by the way, he played with Schaub, who took a lot of the blame, but you have to wonder if Johnson was also a big reason for the struggling offense. That's the thing to realize: his gigantic descent was actually in 2013, but it went unnoticed because he had a career high 181 targets and was among the league leaders in yards, though he was actually regressing heavily.

In case there was any doubt about QBs, schemes, coaching, etc., look below at DeAndre Hopkins numbers last year with the same QB in the same system. Actually almost as good as any of AJ's career years. Johnson is cooked. He may blame the scheme but Hopkins actually had LESS opportunities but almost 300 more yards; AJ was still the go to guy but his play has declined steeply. Even with the worst "off-year" a YPT of 6.37 is so low it can only account for the player himself taking a huge step down. Decent receivers with crappy QBs are usually over 7.0.

2014 DeAndre Hopkins
127 targets, 1210 yards
Yards per target: 9.53

Even in his rookie year, Hopkins was already outperforming Johnson and didn't seem to be so hindered by Matt Schaub as Johnson was.

2013 DeAndre Hopkins
93 targets, 802 yards
Yards per target: 8.62

 

[LightSkinSmurf]

This is a joke right? No true Pats fan should ever say it will be fun watching the f****** colts.

I'm a football fan not just a patriots fan. I like watching good football and I like watching good teams *and qb's* play. So don't come at me with that weak "No true pats would ever do this" card. I am a "true" pats fan and I also like watching other teams play besides the patriots.

 

[Jlaff]

no they don't.......not until Luck can stop coughing up hairballs and looking like an idiot at the worst possible moments....their running game won't be any better

Are you suggesting Luck shave his beard?

 

[Betterthanmost]

Reading what he said, this appears to be a guy who never thought this day will come and he was tangible distraught, and did not want to go to a place where he will be alone. He does not know anybody in our dressing room and that might have played a major factor for him.

 

[Gronkowski123]

I cannot get over what a complete moron Ryan Grigson is. He is really like a dumb Indianapolis Colts fan cheering for the team. The moves he makes might as well been called in by the collective fan vote, which was polled during Entertainment Tonight- Indy Edition. That is the only explanation I have for this assclown. Why would anyone pay a guy like this to be a general manager when he is just going to chase after household name players and throw a bunch of money at them? Zero creativity or value creation; just read the Top 100 Free Agents List in USA Today and start bidding... this guy is really brilliant.

Every one of his free agent signings has this in common: they are all quickly spiraling into the final depths of their career. All of them have reached the point of complete regression and fall off at their respective positions, based on their age and production.

Trent Cole- 2 years, $16M. A perfect fit for Grigson's offseason theme: the old, dying veteran who has nothing left in the tank but will look good on paper. Trent Cole has 17.5 sackes in his last THREE seasons despite miraculously remaining healthy in a 32-year old body. Three straight seasons of subpar numbers isn't a trend, it's a career arc downwards. Cole is cooked. Not sure why you wouldn't go after a player whose ceiling isn't 6 sacks, especially for that money.

Frank Gore- 3 years, $12M. Just what the doctor ordered: a 32-year old running back with a history of injuries, almost 2,500 carries, just getting ready to wrap up his career. Gore is essentially guaranteed 9.5M, which assures he'll be on the Colts when he is 33 as well. I live in the Bay Area, so I know Gore, and he was a great player, and he is done now. He looks old and tired. You could easily draft a RB in the 4th round who will outproduce Gore this year.

Andre Johnson- 3 years, 21M. Are you FREAKIN kidding me? I don't care if the Chargers offered more; that contract, unless heavily, heavily backloaded is absolutely insane. Johnson will be 34 YEARS OLD this year; his yardage totals dropped by 500 yards in 2014. In other words, he has already hit what is known as a wide receiver's career death spiral. It's over. I was really hoping the Patriots would consider signing him for a one-year deal for absolutely no more than $4M. I thought there may be some team out there willing to give him something like $5M or $9M over two years. Belichick must be laughing at this one. This is NOT Andre Johnson of 2009; this is Andre Johnson of 2015. There are so many better, cheaper options than paying this money for a guy who is at absolute best an adequate #2 receiver. The Colts have replaced an over-the-hill Reggie Wayne with an over-the-hill Reggie Wayne clone.

100% accurate. grigson is a moron.
he's still playing madden 2009 on his 360. lol

 

[skspikex2]

3 years 21 millions.. no key figure on breakdown of contract yet.

 

[VectorPrime]

I wouldnt be fans of the Pats paying 7 mil per year for him. Im just mad the Colts got better

 

[Ice_Ice_Brady]

I wouldnt be fans of the Pats paying 7 mil per year for him. Im just mad the Colts got better

Did you read my post about Johnson's production? I don't believe they got better. No way 2015 Andre Johnson is better than 2014 Regge Wayne. Mark my words: Andre Johnson will be THE biggest free agent flop of the season (closely ahead of Trent Cole and Frank Gore!)

Colts/press will blame it on "adjusting to a new system," developing chemistry with Luck, etc etc. Johnson is a dried up shell of his old self. The stats above don't lie; they are extremely clear that Johnson is no longer an NFL-caliber receiver. Reminds me of Randy Moss- fans hardly noticed his decline but Belichick did. Before we knew it, he was someone who could catch about 10 balls per season... Didn't stop the press and fans from waiting for his breakout and refusing to believe it could happen so fast. Heck, Minnesota even gave up a 3rd round pick for him.