Should Bill have punted on that 4th down?

[tuckeverlasting]

Faulk got the 4th and 2 last year but the ref gave a **** spot.

we know.

i loved that they went for it but, if connelly was going to be in the backfield, they should have done a brady sneak with connelly pushing him from behind. no handoff. personally , i would have preferred a slant to welker.

 

[pencilneckgeek]

If BJGE had run the play correctly he would have had an easy first down, game over. On a previous short yardage play he was able to bounce outside of his blockers and get the first down. That obviously influenced his decision on this play. I am sure he will learn from this, one way or another....

:yeahthat: Benny needed to be patient. There was a mass of white at the point of attack, but it took a while to get things moving. Benny needed to head to the outside shoulder, like he did, but then he should have hesitated and cut it back to Wendell's inside shoulder. He would have easily had the yardage. As it was, he was impatient and ran straight to the unblocked OLB. He also would probably have had the yardage, if he ran up the back of Connolly, and just helped push the pile. That's a simple coaching point and one which BB harps on with rookies. It's easy to get a yard when the blocking blows up the DLine, but you have to run smart, when there's an impasse. Bad mistake by Benny. I predict Morris will be our short-yardage back next week.

As for the QB sneak, I don't like the way Koppen was getting pushed around in there. The NT submarined him and Neal was stuck, too. There wasn't really anywhere to go. Neal might have gotten more push if the play was to him, but I doubt Koppen does any better.

I'm happy with the play call. They just need to run it better and block it a little better.

 

[Simkin]

the call is right if u convert it...



btw i choosed punt it. I know our defense was tired, as is not a top defense in the league again a top pass offense... but we need to give them our confidence .

 

[Triumph]

i rarely antagonize or personally insult others who I disagree with, but whoever thinks this was a good idea is a complete homer. if dungy or mangini or tomlin did it, you would be absolutely raking them over the coals.

It was a great idea to go for it. A 1st forces SD to burn all their timeouts.

Rivers had the NE D on its heels chewing up big yards on passing plays. So NE punts instead of going for it? In one series SD could have been back up to 50 or worse.

It was clear to me that the NE was playing off at times to get SD into the redzone where there is less field to cover. Bend dont break is back and even Sims commented how deep the LBs were playing.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

If the Chargers had needed a TD to tie, I'd have been more comfortable with the call, but why risk putting Phillip Rivers 20 yards from FG range with three timeouts and plenty of time on the clock?

But, that said, I have no issue with Coach sending the signal to his team that he's willing to trust them for two yards (it was closer to two yards than one). Of course, there is the small matter of coming through when he does that...

 

[PatsFanSince74]

If BJGE had run the play correctly he would have had an easy first down, game over. On a previous short yardage play he was able to bounce outside of his blockers and get the first down. That obviously influenced his decision on this play. I am sure he will learn from this, one way or another....

Yeah. And ironically the play came about five minutes after the Announcers had quoted BB as saying he liked the Law Firm because he didn't lose yards (IMO, a not too subtle dig at the dancing Maroney). While I definitely like the guy (it's hard not to like him), you can count me as someone who has not yet jumped on the "BJGE-as-#1-or-2-RB" Bandwagon.

 

[Triumph]

I dont get why some of the media claim that going for it is bad for the physche of the team especially the defense.

If you covert it shows that you had confidence in your offense with the game on the line.

If you failed, it shows confidence that your defense will hold them out of the end zone.

 

[BelichickFan]

These plays are the only time we get to quote Herm. "You play to win the game". SD had plenty of time and 3 times out left. Get a yard, win the game, go home.

 

[tasmlab]

The way Zoltan had to chase down his snaps and pick them off the ground every time might of made the decision to go for it easier.

 

[MoLewisrocks]

But Rivers and the SD offense were eating up huge chunks of yardage. Gates was getting in on the act. I think going for it is the right call, but I wonder about the play.

The SD D was overloaded to the side of the BFGE run. Connolly as FB blocking screams run play IMO.

You know how Vince got the Lombardi named after him? By running plays opponents knew were coming but demanding his team out execute the opposition. BB wouldn't have asked them to go for it or allowed that play or any other to be called if he didn't believe they are capable of executing it. Thing is they didn't. Consistent execution has been a problem for this team all season. The defense has improve dramatically. The offense is still wildly inconsistent. This team spends a lot of time on situational football. He tells them they will have a game when they have to convert 4th and 1 perhaps for the season. In those situations it all comes down to effort and execution and it's on them as players as it should be to impose their will on an opponent in that situation. We were not the least bit imposing yesterday. Fortunately SD is who I said they were...

 

[GaryfromTO]

right call, wrong play.

I will never understand why when you need a yard, you start your runner 5 yds deep in your backfield and try to run left or right.

Put your horses in the middle and drive forward with a QB sneak. If your o-line can't get you a yard, it's time for a new o-line

 

[aluminum seats]

He should have punted it. I certainly hope Belichick wasn't thinking about the Colts call last year.

That was the right call in the Colts game. Peyton was on the other side of the field, and the Colts defense was not that scary.

The Chargers had stuffed the running game all day, and their defense was pretty formidable. Yes, Rivers is having a great year, but he's not Peyton Manning.

PUNT IT.

This. The call last year was the right one--Manning would have made up those yards in about 4 seconds. Pinning the Chargers would have been a different situation--as we saw, they still had to settle for a long FG there.

As another poster said, winning makes this academic as opposed to devastating.

I do, by the way, think there's something to showing trust in the defense. This is a young, developing unit, and just like BB would say "I thought we could get a yard," punting would have said, "I thought our defense could win it for us."

Like I said, they won, whew. But they should have punted.

 

[everlong]

I thought going for it was the right call but before the play I thought they are going to use play action and hit the TE to the opposite side they fake the run to and hit one of the TEs. I was shocked when Brady actually handed the ball to BJGE. I think the play action to the TE would have be wide open as the Chargers completely sold out. It might have gone for a TD.

 

[Bella*chick]

These failed calls feel so much better when we win.

I know. So much more like benign "learning experiences".

 

[captain stone]

You know how Vince got the Lombardi named after him? By running plays opponents knew were coming but demanding his team out-execute the opposition. BB wouldn't have asked them to go for it or allowed that play or any other to be called if he didn't believe they are capable of executing it. Thing is they didn't. Consistent execution has been a problem for this team all season. The defense has improve dramatically. The offense is still wildly inconsistent. This team spends a lot of time on situational football. He tells them they will have a game when they have to convert 4th and 1 perhaps for the season. In those situations it all comes down to effort and execution and it's on them as players as it should be to impose their will on an opponent in that situation. We were not the least bit imposing yesterday. Fortunately SD is who I said they were...

True enough; but when everybody watching or playing the game knew what was coming based on the formation, it becomes much more difficult to execute the play, which was slow enough to develop as it was. Now you are left with 4 or 5 blockers vs. 11 defenders.
Compound that fact with the misuse of the not-explosive-enough BJGE as an outside runner, who also doesn't have the 1st-string-calibre vision to find the cutback lane (and as PencilNeckGeek observed, there was a very viable cutback available), and what you have is a recipe for a play doomed to failure.
The correct call would've been a QB sneak on a lightning-quick snap count, or as Everlong suggested, a fake handoff then a pass in the flat, either to Welker on a slant (which should've been the result in Indy last year; he had the inside position on his man) or to a TE, just like Grogan did to PitsDirt in 1976.
At the very worst, if Bill just had to insist on that formation/play, then he should've had Woody in the backfield. He has superior vision & speed than the tunnel-visioned, plodding JAG Law Firm.

 

[makewayhomer]

going for it is pretty clearly correct. Advanced NFL Stats explains why

the more interesting decision was Pittsburgh's.

down by 2 points with 2:28 to play. the Steelers faced 4th and goal from inside the 1. They elected to kick a FG, and hung on to win 23-22

I think if you don't have an awesome defense, going for 7 there could be correct

 

[CheeseMonkeys]

the more interesting decision was Pittsburgh's.

down by 2 points with 2:28 to play. the Steelers faced 4th and goal from inside the 1. They elected to kick a FG, and hung on to win 23-22

I think if you don't have an awesome defense, going for 7 there could be correct

I disagree. I think that you have to kick the field goal to go ahead by a point because if you turn it over on downs, it's practically over. Imagine BB going for the TD in that situation and missing, he would look like an idiot.

 

[makewayhomer]

I disagree. I think that you have to kick the field goal to go ahead by a point because if you turn it over on downs, it's practically over. Imagine BB going for the TD in that situation and missing, he would look like an idiot.

well of course if you go for it and miss, you look like an idiot. but that's not even close to the right way to analyze the situation

you need to estimate:

% chance of FG success (+ % chance of Miami coming from behind to score a winning FG)
% chance of TD success (+ % chance of Miami coming from behind to score a winning TD)
% chance of winning in either failure situation. remember, if you go for it and fail, the other team is likely still stuck on their goaline, will probably play conservative, and there is a good chance you get the ball back in good field positition

you can't think of the situation in absolutes

 

[CheeseMonkeys]

well of course if you go for it and miss, you look like an idiot. but that's not even close to the right way to analyze the situation

you need to estimate:

% chance of FG success (+ % chance of Miami coming from behind to score a winning FG)
% chance of TD success (+ % chance of Miami coming from behind to score a winning TD)
% chance of winning in either failure situation. remember, if you go for it and fail, the other team is likely still stuck on their goaline, will probably play conservative, and there is a good chance you get the ball back in good field positition

you can't think of the situation in absolutes

Sure, but I would throw my TV out the window before the snap is even made.

 

[PatsFaninAZ]

I think the question turns not just on risk but also reward. If the Patriots had made it yesterday, what is the reward? Chargers had all 3 time outs. So, even if the Patriots convert, they can't run the clock out. They still need another first down. If they run three plays and get stopped, the Chargers have the ball back with about 1:00 to play. They may even have more time, or more time outs, if the Patriots throw an incomplete pass or go out of bounds.

Seems to me that if the play can win the game and put you in victory formation, it's an easier call. That wasn't the case yesterday. Converting would have made it very difficult for the Chargers, but still, going 50 yards in a minute happens all the time in the NFL.