Shefter: Ravens could release WR Anquan Boldin

[Snake Eyes]

And he's smart: He'd get our foolishly complicated System.

Totally agree, one of the thing that's a problem for receivers in NE is being able to make those post-snap reads and adjustments, Boldin used to play QB where making post-snap reads and decisions is part of the job.

Sign the beast!

BTW, I still want the Pats to get a hold of Joe Webb, who is being wasted in MN, he should be a receiver here.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

Did people forget we almost signed Reggie Wayne last year???

almost? Huh? he said the praises of the pats and coach/brady..but i don't remember one bit of the pats actually "negotiating" with him and his agent

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I always appreciate your salary cap analysis, MoLewisRocks. I think that you are definitely one of the best on the entire forum in that regard.

I understandably argued that you could give or take a little bit to my 16-17 million dollar projection, and that must be how you came up with 13.

While I appreciate the look of the other side of the coin, I'm not sure that I necessarily agree that it could potentially be that low. I hope you are right. In the meantime it is a difference of opinions. I have a terribly hard time believing that all of Wes Welker, Anquan Boldin, Brandon Llyod, and Julian Edelman can be had for a mere 13 million dollar cap hit, but it's hard to argue with a veteran like you on this kind of issue.

And as much as I will never understand as much as you (nor will about 99% of the forum) regarding cap hits or contractual issues, I do actually understand the difference between cap hit and aav, so I'm not mixing up the two at all.

Whether we agree on certain numbers or not I have a very hard time believing that Belichick would tie that much money up in the WR position, but that's just my personal opinion, right or wrong.

I can reasonably say that creative geniuses may be able to get Welker's cap hit lower than my projected 7 million, that is certainly fair. I don't know if it could be all the way down to 4.5, but I do agree that it could certainly be somewhere between the two figures. I can also admit that Boldin's hit could be less too, although later in my statement I claimed "5 to 6 million," so we aren't too far apart there.

I have a hard time seeing Llyod restructure his year into an incentive laden one though, that's a stretch. As a matter of fact the whole topic and conversation are a stretch considering that only ONE of those 4 players are currently on the team. Regardless it's fair to think that it could be/should be between your 13 and my 16-17, yes..

A deal that pays Welker 4/$34M ($8.5M AAV) with $18M guaranteed and $12M in signing bonus could hit the cap for as little as $4M. I pegged the year one salary at $1.5. Year 2 hits the cap at $7.5M and his guaranteed money is all accounted for. Thereafter he hits the cap at $11M although $8M per of that is unguaranteed salary so they could always play the take a haircut or see you later card when he's 34. And either keep him at more favorable cap # (say $7M or a 50% salary discount but it's guaranteed) or take the $6M dead cap hit over 2 years and free up $16M in cap space. Lots of things you could do to sweeten the back end like a rolling guarantee of a portion of his 3rd year and 4th year salaries based on his % of snaps or some cumulative stats formula agreeable to both sides. Year 1 cap hit is nothing more than amortized signing bonus and salary, and that can be as much or as little as the team wants to fit their needs. This would basically be a 2 year $18M deal fully guaranteed. Just a little less insulting when you call it a 4 year $34M deal with $18M guaranteed. And you look back at the tag and he's received $27.5M guaranteed over 3 years... I guarantee you he'd have settled for less last season. Anything within spitting distance of $20M and he'd have been a happy camper. That's the rub.

That's how contracts work. When Manning signed his old deal for 7/$98M ($14M AAV) his cap hit in year in the first couple of years was around $8M.

It would be harder with a guy like Bolden who would likely be on a 2 or at most 3 year deal. Less room to spread the signing bonus. But on a 2 year $15M deal with $9M guaranteed and an $8M signing bonus his cap hit could be $5M.

Lloyd would agree to restructure or land on the unemployment line. His $2M dead cap spread over two seasons is negligible if it nets them $8M in cap room over the same period. They have leverage. If they don't want him who will and for what?

Edelman can probably be had on a one year lets try and prove it (that you can produce and stay healthy) again deal for probably a million or a million and change. And if they opt to sign him to a 2-3 year deal it won't be for more than that other than in unguaranteed future salary.

That is also why they can sign Brady to a 3-4 year $60-80M extension and guarantee more than half of it and lower his cap hit from $21.8M to the mid teens. In the first year it becomes old amortization + new amortization + as much or little salary as they see fit to suit their cap. All that will matter to Brady is they are tacking years on the end of his deal at market rate and paying him the money he is already owed for the next two years up front. He may again demand rolling guarantees so that ultimately the decision to keep playing or walk away is his on the backend. Kraft seems to be down with that concept. He trust Brady to make that determination and not hang on to collect money he isn't worth. The only caveat to that kind of deal would be Brady playing at a high level for 3 more years so any dead cap if he did walk away would be manageable.

 

[supafly]

A deal that pays Welker 4/$34M ($8.5M AAV) with $18M guaranteed and $12M in signing bonus could hit the cap for as little as $4M. I pegged the year one salary at $1.5. Year 2 hits the cap at $7.5M and his guaranteed money is all accounted for. Thereafter he hits the cap at $11M although $8M per of that is unguaranteed salary so they could always play the take a haircut or see you later card when he's 34. And either keep him at more favorable cap # (say $7M or a 50% salary discount but it's guaranteed) or take the $6M dead cap hit over 2 years and free up $16M in cap space. Lots of things you could do to sweeten the back end like a rolling guarantee of a portion of his 3rd year and 4th year salaries based on his % of snaps or some cumulative stats formula agreeable to both sides. Year 1 cap hit is nothing more than amortized signing bonus and salary, and that can be as much or as little as the team wants to fit their needs. This would basically be a 2 year $18M deal fully guaranteed. Just a little less insulting when you call it a 4 year $34M deal with $18M guaranteed. And you look back at the tag and he's received $27.5M guaranteed over 3 years... I guarantee you he'd have settled for less last season. Anything within spitting distance of $20M and he'd have been a happy camper. That's the rub.

That's how contracts work. When Manning signed his old deal for 7/$98M ($14M AAV) his cap hit in year in the first couple of years was around $8M.

It would be harder with a guy like Bolden who would likely be on a 2 or at most 3 year deal. Less room to spread the signing bonus. But on a 2 year $15M deal with $9M guaranteed and an $8M signing bonus his cap hit could be $5M.

Lloyd would agree to restructure or land on the unemployment line. His $2M dead cap spread over two seasons is negligible if it nets them $8M in cap room over the same period. They have leverage. If they don't want him who will and for what?

Edelman can probably be had on a one year lets try and prove it (that you can produce and stay healthy) again deal for probably a million or a million and change. And if they opt to sign him to a 2-3 year deal it won't be for more than that other than in unguaranteed future salary.

That is also why they can sign Brady to a 3-4 year $60-80M extension and guarantee more than half of it and lower his cap hit from $21.8M to the mid teens. In the first year it becomes old amortization + new amortization + as much or little salary as they see fit to suit their cap. All that will matter to Brady is they are tacking years on the end of his deal at market rate and paying him the money he is already owed for the next two years up front. He may again demand rolling guarantees so that ultimately the decision to keep playing or walk away is his on the backend. Kraft seems to be down with that concept. He trust Brady to make that determination and not hang on to collect money he isn't worth. The only caveat to that kind of deal would be Brady playing at a high level for 3 more years so any dead cap if he did walk away would be manageable.

Awesome analysis, Mo. You truly have a gift for this type of thing, and I and many others always enjoy learning more about the specifics. Thank you.

 

[supafly]

almost? Huh? he said the praises of the pats and coach/brady..but i don't remember one bit of the pats actually "negotiating" with him and his agent

It's widely believed but not specifically confirmed that he turned the Pats down to stay with Indy.

He admitted that "at least one of the teams was a pretty bitter rival of the Colts that fans would not have too pleased to see me leave to" or something very similar in several interviews.

I know that we heard more about it last year from at least another source or two, but I can't provide a link for you...sorry. Edit: actually there are several when you google it.

http://www.rantsports.com/nfl/2012/10/14/source-new-england-patriots-tried-to-sign-indianapolis-colts-wr-reggie-wayne-offered-more-money-than-colts/

http://www.patspulpit.com/2012/3/16/2878679/colts-wr-reggie-wayne-decided-between-colts-and-patriots

At any rate, many believe that we did indeed offer a contract to Wayne. When that didn't work out Llyod was next in line. Whether or not Llyod would have came here anyway is anyone's guess.

 

[supafly]

Did people forget we almost signed Reggie Wayne last year???

We're not forgetting, but what specifically, is your point in bringing it up?

Wayne signed with Indy for 3 yrs/16 million instead and we brought Brandon Llyod in on a cheaper deal for 3 yrs/12 million.

Whether or not Llyod would have been pursued or not is anyone's guess. I think the option may have still been explored myself.

I was one would was absolutely clamoring for R.Wayne to become a Patriot. He was smart, talented, and experienced...everything you'd want in a player. It's a shame that it didn't happen.

 

[mgteich]

A) The patriots wouldn't guarantee Welker sixteen million last year. What has changed other than Welker being a year older.

B) We have a much greater cap issue over the next couple of years than we do this year. We will careful about how many back loaded contracts we sign. One will likely go to a corner.

A deal that pays Welker 4/$34M ($8.5M AAV) with $18M guaranteed and $12M in signing bonus could hit the cap for as little as $4M. I pegged the year one salary at $1.5. Year 2 hits the cap at $7.5M and his guaranteed money is all accounted for. Thereafter he hits the cap at $11M although $8M per of that is unguaranteed salary so they could always play the take a haircut or see you later card when he's 34. And either keep him at more favorable cap # (say $7M or a 50% salary discount but it's guaranteed) or take the $6M dead cap hit over 2 years and free up $16M in cap space. Lots of things you could do to sweeten the back end like a rolling guarantee of a portion of his 3rd year and 4th year salaries based on his % of snaps or some cumulative stats formula agreeable to both sides. Year 1 cap hit is nothing more than amortized signing bonus and salary, and that can be as much or as little as the team wants to fit their needs. This would basically be a 2 year $18M deal fully guaranteed. Just a little less insulting when you call it a 4 year $34M deal with $18M guaranteed. And you look back at the tag and he's received $27.5M guaranteed over 3 years... I guarantee you he'd have settled for less last season. Anything within spitting distance of $20M and he'd have been a happy camper. That's the rub.

That's how contracts work. When Manning signed his old deal for 7/$98M ($14M AAV) his cap hit in year in the first couple of years was around $8M.

It would be harder with a guy like Bolden who would likely be on a 2 or at most 3 year deal. Less room to spread the signing bonus. But on a 2 year $15M deal with $9M guaranteed and an $8M signing bonus his cap hit could be $5M.

Lloyd would agree to restructure or land on the unemployment line. His $2M dead cap spread over two seasons is negligible if it nets them $8M in cap room over the same period. They have leverage. If they don't want him who will and for what?

Edelman can probably be had on a one year lets try and prove it (that you can produce and stay healthy) again deal for probably a million or a million and change. And if they opt to sign him to a 2-3 year deal it won't be for more than that other than in unguaranteed future salary.

That is also why they can sign Brady to a 3-4 year $60-80M extension and guarantee more than half of it and lower his cap hit from $21.8M to the mid teens. In the first year it becomes old amortization + new amortization + as much or little salary as they see fit to suit their cap. All that will matter to Brady is they are tacking years on the end of his deal at market rate and paying him the money he is already owed for the next two years up front. He may again demand rolling guarantees so that ultimately the decision to keep playing or walk away is his on the backend. Kraft seems to be down with that concept. He trust Brady to make that determination and not hang on to collect money he isn't worth. The only caveat to that kind of deal would be Brady playing at a high level for 3 more years so any dead cap if he did walk away would be manageable.

 

[supafly]

B) We have a much greater cap issue over the next couple of years than we do this year. We will careful about how many back loaded contracts we sign. One will likely go to a corner.

Is this necessarily true, mg?

I thought that Brady's potential extension would free up some of those concerns and bring the cap hit down significantly. I don't think they'll necessarily paint themselves into a corner with Brady's situation.

The Mankins situation apparently is set up so that the team can realistically pull out after 2014 without too much drawback from what I understand and am told, so I wouldn't see any reason to worry as much with him.

The free agency situation looks much better next season than it does this specific year, so they shouldn't get stuck having to scramble to try and retain some of their own as much as this offseason. Of course that will change a bit as they add/retain a couple-few players, but it still shouldn't be quite as bad as this year when looking ahead.

There's also the fact that new money should start trickling in as of 2015 to the tune of at least 6-7 million more, at least from what has been reported. That could potentially help down the line in 3 yrs also.

I'm sure that I'm not covering all of your concerns, maybe with Wilfork etc but is it really potentially that bad? I'd have a hard time believing that the front office would put themselves in that bad of a situation.

 

[Avenger]

almost? Huh? he said the praises of the pats and coach/brady..but i don't remember one bit of the pats actually "negotiating" with him and his agent

http://www.patsfans.com/new-england...ounds-like-reggie-wayne-almost-signed-ne.html

 

[SeanBruschi54]

almost? Huh? he said the praises of the pats and coach/brady..but i don't remember one bit of the pats actually "negotiating" with him and his agent

They did and they offered him a deal to be "similar" to what he got from Indy

We're not forgetting, but what specifically, is your point in bringing it up?

Wayne signed with Indy for 3 yrs/16 million instead and we brought Brandon Llyod in on a cheaper deal for 3 yrs/12 million.

Whether or not Llyod would have been pursued or not is anyone's guess. I think the option may have still been explored myself.

I was one would was absolutely clamoring for R.Wayne to become a Patriot. He was smart, talented, and experienced...everything you'd want in a player. It's a shame that it didn't happen.

My point is that Belichick knows we need a wideout option to keep us honest. He also likes a veteran who has great experience and i could absolutely see Boldin a target of this front office.

He may not be blazing fast but he is absolutely reliable and has great hands.

 

[tonyto3690]

almost? Huh? he said the praises of the pats and coach/brady..but i don't remember one bit of the pats actually "negotiating" with him and his agent

We did. Reports were that it was 50-50 between us and Indy and he just happened to choose Indy. Then he went on to have a monster all-pro calibre year.

Him along with Red Bryant were two guys we "almost" had and would have been massive upgrades for us and helped us tremendously against the Ravens and fill both of our weakspots on this years and next years roster.

Though it can be argued that we wouldn't have signed Lloyd if we had Wayne, but 1. I'd rather have Wayne easily, 2. would have just given us more leverage to sign Lloyd cheap. Those two on the outside would have been perfect compliments to Welker, Hernandez and Gronkowski.

Ah the what-if game... causing so much heartache..

 

[fumbrunner]

another big game from boldin, catching balls in traffic and being consistent as usual. The Pats have to have a look if he's released.

 

[TinhWoodhead]

who says he's old?.......33 playing like 23. i'll take that kind of "old" any time.

 

[VectorPrime]

The Patriots NEED to make a run at this guy. How many times did Boldin bail Flacco out tonight? He can make Brady better because Boldin can make a play when the throw isn't perfect

 

[TriplecHamp]

The Patriots NEED to make a run at this guy. How many times did Boldin bail Flacco out tonight? He can make Brady better because Boldin can make a play when the throw isn't perfect

There are plenty of receivers in the NFL who can do this, unfortunately we haven't had one since moss and Gronk is the only guy who consistently makes contested catches on this team Hernandez can do it as well. We don't have anybody who can adjust to the ball in the air and high point it like he can.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

The Patriots NEED to make a run at this guy. How many times did Boldin bail Flacco out tonight? He can make Brady better because Boldin can make a play when the throw isn't perfect

they can't make a run at him if they keep him..he isn't a FA and after tonight..i would NOT let him go if i were the ravens. I think they keep him

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

There are plenty of receivers in the NFL who can do this, unfortunately we haven't had one since moss and Gronk is the only guy who consistently makes contested catches on this team Hernandez can do it as well. We don't have anybody who can adjust to the ball in the air and high point it like he can.

lloyd can adjust to the ball mid air..we saw a few of those this year

 

[TriplecHamp]

lloyd can adjust to the ball mid air..we saw a few of those this year

There are plenty of receivers in the NFL who can do this, unfortunately we haven't had one since moss and Gronk is the only guy who consistently makes contested catches on this team Hernandez can do it as well. We don't have anybody who can adjust to the ball in the air and high point it like he can.

Not to mention he's much more physical.

 

[WhiZa]

Boldin should stay on the Ravens. He just won't have the same success anywhere else and he is their best WR.

 

[Rob0729]

who says he's old?.......33 playing like 23. i'll take that kind of "old" any time.

The problem is that receivers like him end up getting very old overnight. Could be next season or two or three seasons from now, but likely his production will just drop off drastically from one season to the next.