They aren't going to pay Lloyd $5M (his option bonus and 2013 salary) to be a rotational player. Ditto Boldin if they signed him. And cap hit isn't the same as contract average. They paid Lloyd $4M last season on a $4M AAV deal. He only hit the cap at $2M. They could have Welker, Boldin, Lloyd and Edelman for about $13M against the cap. And that's assuming Edelman has to settle for a one year prove you can stay healthy deal or they opt for the 2-3 year incentivized deal with a little up front money.
I always appreciate your salary cap analysis, MoLewisRocks. I think that you are definitely one of the best on the entire forum in that regard.
I understandably argued that you could give or take a little bit to my 16-17 million dollar projection, and that must be how you came up with 13.
While I appreciate the look of the other side of the coin, I'm not sure that I necessarily agree that it could potentially be that low. I hope you are right. In the meantime it is a difference of opinions. I have a terribly hard time believing that all of Wes Welker, Anquan Boldin, Brandon Llyod, and Julian Edelman can be had for a mere 13 million dollar cap hit, but it's hard to argue with a veteran like you on this kind of issue.
And as much as I will never understand as much as you (nor will about 99% of the forum) regarding cap hits or contractual issues, I do actually understand the difference between cap hit and aav, so I'm not mixing up the two at all.
Whether we agree on certain numbers or not I have a very hard time believing that Belichick would tie that much money up in the WR position, but that's just my personal opinion, right or wrong.
I can reasonably say that creative geniuses may be able to get Welker's cap hit lower than my projected 7 million, that is certainly fair. I don't know if it could be all the way down to 4.5, but I do agree that it could certainly be somewhere between the two figures. I can also admit that Boldin's hit could be less too, although later in my statement I claimed "5 to 6 million," so we aren't too far apart there.
I have a hard time seeing Llyod restructure his year into an incentive laden one though, that's a stretch. As a matter of fact the whole topic and conversation are a stretch considering that only ONE of those 4 players are currently on the team. Regardless it's fair to think that it could be/should be between your 13 and my 16-17, yes..