Shefter: Ravens could release WR Anquan Boldin

[Brady_to_Moss]

We need another chance are famous last words. By the time they are 30, guys are who they are and Lloyd is who he is. He had ample opportunity to step up huge in the absence of Gronk or Hernandez for much of the season. If they are somehow both healthy for a full season, I see his targets evaporating. And the problem with those unbelievable catches on the sidelines is you couldn't count on them more than half of the time which is why we didn't see many in the second half. Lloyd caught 57% of the passes TFB was targeting at him. Boldin caught 58% of the passes Flacco was throwing up for grabs. Boldin will draw more coverage, and you can never have too many big, tough red zone targets.

he's the 4th option ATM when everyone is healthy..if gronk or ahern goes down again..he has to step up. When your "#4" options gets 900 yards..that's pretty good especially for the $$ he is getting paid.


I really don't see why people want him gone. It baffles. What # 4 option is going to get 900 yards for that kind of $$?

 

[Rob0729]

We need another chance are famous last words. By the time they are 30, guys are who they are and Lloyd is who he is. He had ample opportunity to step up huge in the absence of Gronk or Hernandez for much of the season. If they are somehow both healthy for a full season, I see his targets evaporating. And the problem with those unbelievable catches on the sidelines is you couldn't count on them more than half of the time which is why we didn't see many in the second half. Lloyd caught 57% of the passes TFB was targeting at him. Boldin caught 58% of the passes Flacco was throwing up for grabs. Boldin will draw more coverage, and you can never have too many big, tough red zone targets.

I don't know if Lloyd's targets would evaporate with a healthy Gornk or Hernandez. In fact, his role could change and he could be more of a down field threat considering he would draw less coverages with Gronk drawing more doubles.

Also, Boldin caught 58% of his passes and Lloyd caught 56.9% of his passes. Really not much of a difference between the two in that area.

I wouldn't mind exploring Boldin if he is cut, but he is not a huge upgrade over Lloyd. He isn't really the deep threat people are crying about., but he is a different receiver than Lloyd.

Personally, I would rather seen Boldin as an addition than a replacement because he has had a bit of an injury history over his career, he will be 33 next year, and big physical receivers tend to break down overnight around that age. Would rather have him and Lloyd rotating opposite Welker (assuming Welker is back) than either be a full time guy. What this offense needs (even more than a deep threat per sea) is diversity and depth at the WR position.

 

[Deus Irae]

I don't know if Lloyd's targets would evaporate with a healthy Gornk or Hernandez. In fact, his role could change and he could be more of a down field threat considering he would draw less coverages with Gronk drawing more doubles.

Also, Boldin caught 58% of his passes and Lloyd caught 56.9% of his passes. Really not much of a difference between the two in that area.

I wouldn't mind exploring Boldin if he is cut, but he is not a huge upgrade over Lloyd. He isn't really the deep threat people are crying about., but he is a different receiver than Lloyd.

Personally, I would rather seen Boldin as an addition than a replacement because he has had a bit of an injury history over his career, he will be 33 next year, and big physical receivers tend to break down overnight around that age. Would rather have him and Lloyd rotating opposite Welker (assuming Welker is back) than either be a full time guy. What this offense needs (even more than a deep threat per sea) is diversity and depth at the WR position.

In the only "healthy" game we saw out of the TEs, Lloyd had 5 catches for a team high 69 yards. The player who lost out was Welker, who had just 3 catches for 14 yards. Now, this was at the start of the season, but your position is buttressed by that very small smattering of evidence.

 

[TriplecHamp]

young stud wide outs don't grow on trees. And pats have been terrible at drafting them. If they can get Boldin for a decent price they have to.

I still get a kick out of people saying we need youth at a certain position, not experience. Its very rare that you get a young receiver to come in and make an immediate impact. The Pats would be foolish IMO to just throw a bunch of draft picks @ a perceived problem like WR and expect it to be fixed come year 1. There are certain positions where transition players like Boldin could come in for a year or 2 while youth develops under them. I'd like to bring a player like Boldin in for 6m a year while a 2nd round pick develops under him. Boldin is the type of player that you can throw back shoulder fades to on 3rd and 7 and let him take the ball out of the air. He shouldn't and wouldn't be the only addition though.

 

[supafly]

I still get a kick out of people saying we need youth at a certain position, not experience. Its very rare that you get a young receiver to come in and make an immediate impact. The Pats would be foolish IMO to just throw a bunch of draft picks @ a perceived problem like WR and expect it to be fixed come year 1. There are certain positions where transition players like Boldin could come in for a year or 2 while youth develops under them. I'd like to bring a player like Boldin in for 6m a year while a 2nd round pick develops under him. Boldin is the type of player that you can throw back shoulder fades to on 3rd and 7 and let him take the ball out of the air. He shouldn't and wouldn't be the only addition though.

I agree with your idea a lot. I like the idea of exploring the draft for possible contributions now, but more likelihood of down the road contributions in year two as a developmental WR (which most tend to be here). That would mean taking a higher round draft choice AND exploring the FA group of WR, but if Welker is retained they'll have a hard time bringing in a vet who will command 6 million a year against the cap.

That's why I think it needs to be addressed via the draft (almost a given at this point, although that may not mean a thing if you are Bill Belichick) and some of the lower level type signings that wouldn't warrant such a high cap hit. It's this reasoning alone as to why I started the thread last week on trying to find a gem in the rough with lesser talented players that could potentially work out in this system. The problem there is that not too many like the choices, and there's an obvious dropoff in talent although we've gone that route at plenty of positions before including WR.

One thing to consider is that if Welker is retained, also grabbing a guy like Boldin would then tie up approx. 17 million + in one position. I figured that to be the following from approximations of cap hits, give or take a small amount as the only one we really know right now 100% is Brandon Llyod. Either way we can all agree that we'd easily be looking at 16-17 million at WR and that's IF they could somehow get both Welker and Boldin's hits less than what I have assumed:

(Welker 7 million cap hit)
(Llyod 4.5 cap hit)
(Boldin 6 million cap hit)

That's already 17.5 million right there and we're not even factoring in Edelman either, who is probably a very good candidate to stay but shouldn't require anything too major in terms of monetary value.

I just don't see it being possible, not just for Boldin, but also for any other kind of guy who will be in that 5-6 million dollar cap hit range.

The best we can really hope for is a high round pick to develop more than the past in year one, along with another middle/lower tiered WR with a much more managable cap hit as a potential WR3.

Now....if they don't retain Wes Welker then the whole exercise instantly becomes moot because they have more need at the position--but also more money to play with. In that scenario a guy like Boldin is almost a must in my opinion.

 

[Brady_to_Moss]

(Welker 7 million cap hit)
(Llyod 4.5 cap hit)
(Boldin 6 million cap hit)

If welker isn't back..we will have a good amount for another WR in FA

 

[MoLewisrocks]

In the only "healthy" game we saw out of the TEs, Lloyd had 5 catches for a team high 69 yards. The player who lost out was Welker, who had just 3 catches for 14 yards. Now, this was at the start of the season, but your position is buttressed by that very small smattering of evidence.

Even though we all know that evidence was somewhat skewered.

 

[Kontradiction]

I still get a kick out of people saying we need youth at a certain position, not experience. Its very rare that you get a young receiver to come in and make an immediate impact. The Pats would be foolish IMO to just throw a bunch of draft picks @ a perceived problem like WR and expect it to be fixed come year 1. There are certain positions where transition players like Boldin could come in for a year or 2 while youth develops under them. I'd like to bring a player like Boldin in for 6m a year while a 2nd round pick develops under him. Boldin is the type of player that you can throw back shoulder fades to on 3rd and 7 and let him take the ball out of the air. He shouldn't and wouldn't be the only addition though.

Youth is salary cap friendly. Draft the right guy and you're set for a few years at a bargain basement price.

 

[mgteich]

A) a young quality free agent is expensive.

B) Drafting the right guy is easy to type and hard to accomplish. Sometimes a player is a clear star like Julio Jones. He cost the Falcons 2 firsts, a second, a fourth plus another pick. This is not my idea of bargain basement in terms of resources.

C) One could draft 3 players and hope to get one major contributor. Even then, the player will likely take a year to develop.
====

In the end, one decides how to use the draft to maximize value. I think that we (and most other teams) have better success in the early drafting of DL's, OL'S and even DB's rather than WR's.

QUOTE=KontradictioN;3364580]Youth is salary cap friendly. Draft the right guy and you're set for a few years at a bargain basement price.[/QUOTE]

 

[MoLewisrocks]

I agree with your idea a lot. I like the idea of exploring the draft for possible contributions now, but more likelihood of down the road contributions in year two as a developmental WR (which most tend to be here). That would mean taking a higher round draft choice AND exploring the FA group of WR, but if Welker is retained they'll have a hard time bringing in a vet who will command 6 million a year against the cap.

That's why I think it needs to be addressed via the draft (almost a given at this point, although that may not mean a thing if you are Bill Belichick) and some of the lower level type signings that wouldn't warrant such a high cap hit. It's this reasoning alone as to why I started the thread last week on trying to find a gem in the rough with lesser talented players that could potentially work out in this system. The problem there is that not too many like the choices, and there's an obvious dropoff in talent although we've gone that route at plenty of positions before including WR.

One thing to consider is that if Welker is retained, also grabbing a guy like Boldin would then tie up approx. 17 million + in one position. I figured that to be the following from approximations of cap hits, give or take a small amount as the only one we really know right now 100% is Brandon Llyod. Either way we can all agree that we'd easily be looking at 16-17 million at WR and that's IF they could somehow get both Welker and Boldin's hits less than what I have assumed:

(Welker 7 million cap hit) (could be as low as...$4.5M in first year of 4 year $8.5M per deal)
(Llyod 4.5 cap hit) (rework option bonus into incentives drop cap hit to $3M)
(Boldin 6 million cap hit) (could be as low as $4.5M on 2 year deal w/$7M AAV)

That's already 17.5 million right there and we're not even factoring in Edelman either, who is probably a very good candidate to stay but shouldn't require anything too major in terms of monetary value.

I just don't see it being possible, not just for Boldin, but also for any other kind of guy who will be in that 5-6 million dollar cap hit range.

The best we can really hope for is a high round pick to develop more than the past in year one, along with another middle/lower tiered WR with a much more managable cap hit as a potential WR3.

Now....if they don't retain Wes Welker then the whole exercise instantly becomes moot because they have more need at the position--but also more money to play with. In that scenario a guy like Boldin is almost a must in my opinion.

They aren't going to pay Lloyd $5M (his option bonus and 2013 salary) to be a rotational player. Ditto Boldin if they signed him. And cap hit isn't the same as contract average. They paid Lloyd $4M last season on a $4M AAV deal. He only hit the cap at $2M. They could have Welker, Boldin, Lloyd and Edelman for about $13M against the cap. And that's assuming Edelman has to settle for a one year prove you can stay healthy deal or they opt for the 2-3 year incentivized deal with a little up front money.

 

[Off The Grid]

Sign Anquan Boldin??

I would never consider that.

Considering things involves time and risk.

I'd just do it.

 

[Kontradiction]

A) a young quality free agent is expensive.

B) Drafting the right guy is easy to type and hard to accomplish. Sometimes a player is a clear star like Julio Jones. He cost the Falcons 2 firsts, a second, a fourth plus another pick. This is not my idea of bargain basement in terms of resources.

C) One could draft 3 players and hope to get one major contributor. Even then, the player will likely take a year to develop.
====

In the end, one decides how to use the draft to maximize value. I think that we (and most other teams) have better success in the early drafting of DL's, OL'S and even DB's rather than WR's.

Youth is salary cap friendly. Draft the right guy and you're set for a few years at a bargain basement price.

There are going to still be good receivers available Day 2. The Falcons overpaid for Jones but they got a guy who will be one of the most gifted receivers for years to come. You act as if good receivers have never been drafted outside of first round. When you look at this offense, you can see that, assuming Welker signs, it's only an athletic receiver that understands the offense and a starting caliber RG away from being virtually unstoppable.

 

[Off The Grid]

He might be an impressive weapon for Baltimore, but only redundancy for us.

You're joking...right??

News Flash: we don't even have one Split End on this Roster.

Nobody has a greater aversion to signing Top Dollar Free Agents than I.

Nobody.

That's the Road to Perdition...to Salary Cap HELL.

***

But if you can get a smart, scrappy, nasty-@$$ bastard Split End like Anquan Boldin for say 4 or 5 a year...that would be nothing less than a Dream Come True.

We're talking about a guy who Blocks.

We're talking about a guy who Moves The Chains.

And he's smart: He'd get our foolishly complicated System.

***

I've always admired Boldin.

He's a Split End, not a Flanker ~ like Floyd ~ so comparing the two is wrong.

He's not a SlotBack ~ like Welker ~ so comparing those two is wrong.

He's a nasty, scrappy, savvy, wily Veteran who'll be there when we need'm.

He's exactly what we need ~ a guy who Moves The Chains when we need them moved against Nasty D's, and who BLOCKS ~ while we hopefully develop a Split End or two to take over, over the next couple of years.

A Dream Come True...if we can get'm for a decent Price, as I have little doubt we could.

Please God...Make It So.

 

[supafly]

They aren't going to pay Lloyd $5M (his option bonus and 2013 salary) to be a rotational player. Ditto Boldin if they signed him. And cap hit isn't the same as contract average. They paid Lloyd $4M last season on a $4M AAV deal. He only hit the cap at $2M. They could have Welker, Boldin, Lloyd and Edelman for about $13M against the cap. And that's assuming Edelman has to settle for a one year prove you can stay healthy deal or they opt for the 2-3 year incentivized deal with a little up front money.

I always appreciate your salary cap analysis, MoLewisRocks. I think that you are definitely one of the best on the entire forum in that regard.

I understandably argued that you could give or take a little bit to my 16-17 million dollar projection, and that must be how you came up with 13.

While I appreciate the look of the other side of the coin, I'm not sure that I necessarily agree that it could potentially be that low. I hope you are right. In the meantime it is a difference of opinions. I have a terribly hard time believing that all of Wes Welker, Anquan Boldin, Brandon Llyod, and Julian Edelman can be had for a mere 13 million dollar cap hit, but it's hard to argue with a veteran like you on this kind of issue.

And as much as I will never understand as much as you (nor will about 99% of the forum) regarding cap hits or contractual issues, I do actually understand the difference between cap hit and aav, so I'm not mixing up the two at all.

Whether we agree on certain numbers or not I have a very hard time believing that Belichick would tie that much money up in the WR position, but that's just my personal opinion, right or wrong.

I can reasonably say that creative geniuses may be able to get Welker's cap hit lower than my projected 7 million, that is certainly fair. I don't know if it could be all the way down to 4.5, but I do agree that it could certainly be somewhere between the two figures. I can also admit that Boldin's hit could be less too, although later in my statement I claimed "5 to 6 million," so we aren't too far apart there.

I have a hard time seeing Llyod restructure his year into an incentive laden one though, that's a stretch. As a matter of fact the whole topic and conversation are a stretch considering that only ONE of those 4 players are currently on the team. Regardless it's fair to think that it could be/should be between your 13 and my 16-17, yes..

 

[captain stone]

If welker isn't back..we will have a good amount for another WR in FA

And likely at half the price.

 

[captain stone]

A) a young quality free agent is expensive.

B) Drafting the right guy is easy to type and hard to accomplish. Sometimes a player is a clear star like Julio Jones. He cost the Falcons 2 firsts, a second, a fourth plus another pick. This is not my idea of bargain basement in terms of resources.

C) One could draft 3 players and hope to get one major contributor. Even then, the player will likely take a year to develop.
====

In the end, one decides how to use the draft to maximize value. I think that we (and most other teams) have better success in the early drafting of DL's, OL'S and even DB's rather than WR's.

QUOTE=KontradictioN;3364580]Youth is salary cap friendly. Draft the right guy and you're set for a few years at a bargain basement price.

[/QUOTE]

If you are implying that Bill should never draft a WR, then I disagree (although the evidence
from the last decade of drafts suggests that maybe he shouldn't).

 

[mgteich]

No, Belichick will and should keep on trying. However, we cannot presume that a draftee will be a major contributor, certainly not in his rookie year. If Belichick wants to seriously use the draft, he needs to draft 2 receivers in the first four rounds and commit a coach to working with them for a couple of years. We would then expect to keep an "extra" wide receiver. We would still need to sign the normal gang in free agency.

This strategy is a reasonable one in this draft. The strategy presumes a trade down in the first or the second round, which seems very likely.

IMHO, it won't happen, especially if we don't re-sign both Vollmer and Thomas.

It seems unlikely that we would not draft a DL, OL and at least one defensive back.

It does seem that this is the year to draft ONE wide receiver in the first four rounds. We'd then have that player and Ebert as our youngsters.



If you are implying that Bill should never draft a WR, then I disagree (although the evidence
from the last decade of drafts suggests that maybe he shouldn't).[/QUOTE]

 

[UofApatsfan]

Boldin isn't an outside the numbers receiver who stretches defenses, he's a physical slot receiver who thrives over the middle of the field, which doesn't solve any problems the offense has regarding safeties being able to clog the middle of the field. I loved him in Arizona and he's one of my favorite players, but it doesn't fill a need

OTOH, why are people so concerned with getting a "young" receiver? The focus should be on maximizing the next 2-4 years. If the best route to go with all things considered (cost, chemistry w/ Brady, etc.) is drafting a certain receiver that's not a bad thing but making sure the receiver they get is young shouldn't be a high priority.

 

[supafly]

Boldin isn't an outside the numbers receiver who stretches defenses, he's a physical slot receiver who thrives over the middle of the field, which doesn't solve any problems the offense has regarding safeties being able to clog the middle of the field. I loved him in Arizona and he's one of my favorite players, but it doesn't fill a need

OTOH, why are people so concerned with getting a "young" receiver? The focus should be on maximizing the next 2-4 years. If the best route to go with all things considered (cost, chemistry w/ Brady, etc.) is drafting a certain receiver that's not a bad thing but making sure the receiver they get is young shouldn't be a high priority.

The concern is mainly cost effectiveness of a cheap rookie contract mixed with some worries about the next couple of year future at the position itself.

I think that you have a good point when saying it should be about the production over the next 3-4 years, but then we also have to take into account the kind of cost at the overall position, specifically if they retain Welker who will likely be expensive enough.

I would like to personally see the situation addressed mainly through free agency too, but they should also take a higher draft pick at WR so they can start developing him with the usual pattern of redshirted years, or at least minimal playing time and production. We could certainly use a young and speedy option that is showing progression, and could contribute on some level this year, but more likely in 2014.

If they wait to draft a WR until next year, then that just sets the whole process back another year with the odds of seeing the kind of production we need low until 2015. By that time, we'd be talking 3 more seasons of Brady so you see what the worry is with a closing window etc.

Depending upon whether or not they retain Welker, they will likely have to try and bring in some middle/lower level FA competition at the position of WR, as it is simply too expensive, but we still need to address it via the draft too. That's my opinion anyway.

 

[SeanBruschi54]

Did people forget we almost signed Reggie Wayne last year???