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Season Wins Line: Pats = 12

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by SoCal Bong, Apr 28, 2009.

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  1. SoCal Bong

    SoCal Bong Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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  2. BradyFTW!

    BradyFTW! PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #12 Jersey

    Damn, I'll take the over on that. They won 11 without Brady... can't imagine they won't beat that with him. And without having to play the Chargers or Steelers, no less.
     
  3. Sean Pa Patriot

    Sean Pa Patriot Veteran Starter w/Big Long Term Deal

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    #12 Jersey

    Brady would have given us 2-3 wins more last year.. Not a knock on Cassel, but its Tom Brady folks.. 13-3 this year , but it depends on the olb situation
     
  4. patsfaninpittsburgh

    patsfaninpittsburgh Banned

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    Where exactly do you think we lose?
     
  5. Rob0729

    Rob0729 PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Don't forget that the Pats had a relatively easy schedule last year and as of right now the Pats' 2009 schedule looks to be much harder. I would say 12 wins is about right at this point.
     
  6. SoCal Bong

    SoCal Bong Rotational Player and Threatening Starter's Job

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    In Vegas this past weekend I put down a good chunk of change on Pats over 11.5 wins at -110 which is a considerably better line considering how likely 12 wins is which would have been a push against the opening line but would now be a winner at the current line.

    Online I'm also seeing lines of 11.5 at -110 to -120 on the over.
     
  7. ausbacker

    ausbacker Brady > Manning. PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #87 Jersey

    Well I'm backing 19-0..... simply because I can :D.
     
  8. jmt57

    jmt57 Moderator Staff Member PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Pats going over 11.5 doesn't seem like that bad of a bet. From what I have seen about the betting odds of winning the Super Bowl though, the risk doesn't seem to be worth the reward.
     
  9. Dirk3601215

    Dirk3601215 Practice Squad Player

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    I can't pick out any game and say we're going to lose it for sure. I feel like we can win every game if the key guys are healthy.

    I'm leaning more towards 13 or 14 wins.
     
  10. eagle eye

    eagle eye In the Starting Line-Up

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    #85 Jersey

    I'm getting my money on the over, wow that sounds very generous. I would have to take it seriously at 13 but I can't even see three losses this season. I think we win 14 at worst. I like this very, very much and I am a sports bettor.
     
  11. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    There's nothing I want more, as 12+ wins certainly is in our range. I personally see a 13-3 record, 12-4 at worst--provided the injury situation doesn't hurt too badly this yr. One must take into account that there will be IR's, there will be a couple key players who miss 5,6 games, etc.

    But being a sports bettor, you should also respect the fact that anything can happen, specifically injuries, bad calls, strange bounces and turnovers, etc. The strong NFL parity is also a factor right now, and all 16 opponents will be pumped up and ready to go to war, as our team wears a big bullseye obviously.

    Couple that with a very difficult schedule, 3rd hardest I believe, and one could tend to appreciate a 13-3 record, hopefully followed by a 1st rd bye. The standards are quite high around here, anything less would be a disappointment. That tends to cause a lot of pressure, and we could have a few issues as a team to work through also. One would obviously be the return to form of Brady, maybe the gelling of the secondary, LB's, etc.

    I think it would be incredible to win 5 out of every 6 games, leading to a 15-3 record and a berth in the SB. But if they lose a couple games in the first half of the season, I don't see everyone freaking out either. I could see a couple/few problem games in the first 10 or so, with a strong finish as the team peaks and pushes through December.

    I just take things a little more cautiously, that's all, and I appreciate the opponents and the fact that the 07 season was very very special. I just hope that everyone isn't just 'figuring' that since Brady is back the team will pick up where it left off in 07--because that's not fair. There are other variables and factors involved too, even though I see great potential for the 09 team. All that matters is :

    1. Winning the division
    2. Getting a first rd bye
    3. Winning the 2 postseason games

    In that order--the record could be anything, I just want a shot at the unfinished business this team deserves.
     
  12. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    With all respect to you of course, the house doesn't tend to lose too often, or be too far off. So with that said, apparently they see 3 or 4 losses somewhere as a distinct possibility. The schedule is tougher, the division isn't as weak as some yrs past, and winning 3 out of every 4 games is a pretty high standard to begin with.
     
  13. Wildo7

    Wildo7 Totally Full of It

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    I tend to believe that when they handicap lines like these, they do it off of raw statistics and where people are likely to bet as much as actually predicting how the season is going to go. If they put the line at 13+, they might not get any action on the right side of it. Plus, as much as we'd like to assume Brady is 100%, we can't, and an impartial observer isn't going to book a team with a QB coming of ajor surgery for more than 12 wins. We're still leading the pack, and Vegas isn't going to go much further with lines liek these.
     
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2009
  14. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    I absolutely agree. Object is to get 50/50 action from both sides then make the free 10% juice.

    I think the team is very much ahead of the pack, although I do think they'll lose a couple/few games throughout the season. Just my opinion.

    I just don't wanna see a 7-2 start and have everyone freaking out as to 'what's wrong,' as I believe some of the expectations are incredibly high.
     
  15. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Disable Jersey

    Buffalo
    @Jets
    ATL
    BAL
    @DEN
    TEN
    @TB
    MIA
    @IND

    It'd be tough to be excited about 7-2 with that schedule and the level of expectations we've grown accustomed to with this team. There's only one tough road game there.

    I get what you're saying, I'm just not buying into the "hard schedule" thing because of where the tough games are being played. Most of the tougher teams will be playing at the Razor. There are certainly games to be lost on the schedule, I just don't see any "uh oh" games anywhere.

    To me, the only tough road games are Indy and New Orleans, although Houston is a bit of a wild card, and Indy may fall back to the pack. With the Jets road game being in week 2, I don't expect the quarterback to be up to speed yet, making that a very winnable game for the Patriots.
     
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2009
  16. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    I was just using the first 9-10 games as an example, although you are probably pretty spot on in your assessment. Everyone will see their 'harder' games differently, I think it could be more of a working out a kink or two in the first 9-10 games thing, rather than being worried about a specific opponent. I think there could be a minor adjustment period in the first half, then the more typical BB gelling of the team, and peaking during the stretch run that we're accustomed to.

    If there would be a couple games that I personally, would be worried about, they would be the following: (once again, rather than a specific opponent)

    1 divisional game
    1 road game

    then possibly 1 of the following :

    Indy
    New Orleans
    Tennessee
    Carolina

    But all said, I tend to agree with your assessment that there shouldn't really be more than a game somewhere before the bye wk--if even that.
     
  17. supafly

    supafly PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    Good point too Deus about the wk 2 matchup against the NYJ coming early, I think that will benefit us greatly.

    It sure will be nice to get 1/3 of the divisional games out of the way right off the get-go.
     
  18. Deus Irae

    Deus Irae PatsFans.com Retired Jersey Club PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Disable Jersey

    Interesting take on Tennessee, by the way. I'm just not sure what to expect from them with the big tackle gone and the QB battling against Favre to see who'll reach Methuselah's age first.

    I can see this team losing some games, and I'm not saying that they'd "better" win 16 or anything like that. I just think that Vegas is right in making them the favorite in every matchup right now.

    And, for the record, I'd probably look at a Miami game with concern, given the trouble this team historically has with the Dolphins.
     
  19. Feep50

    Feep50 Third String But Playing on Special Teams

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    I'm solidly in this camp. 12-4, 13-3 has the right "feel" to our talent level.

    Less would be a dissappointing season, more wouldn't be a shock.

    I'm right with ya, Dirk!
     
  20. bann'dy moss

    bann'dy moss Rookie

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    100% on the over

    14-2 at the worst [best case scenario]
     
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