Sean Payton borrowed Bill Belichick's brass balls

[Kontradiction]

I disagree. I know outcomes are what we value most, but win or lose, I feel like he made the proper decisions based on the situation.

Indy was the better team, and deserved to be favoured. And Payton knew that. As the underdog, you can't play the game the same way the favourite does, or you'll usually lose. As the underdog, you're forced to take some extra chances to win the game. These decisions increase the odds of losing big, but they also increase your odds of winning the game (a higher variance), and Payton was obviously playing to win.

Payton made several gutsy calls in a row, from the 4th down attempt to calling timeouts late in the first half when Indy might have converted, and then the onside kick. Each of these decisions was made to increase the variance of winning. Had they all backfired, the Saints would have gotten killed. But I'd argue that had he not made them at all, the Saints still would have lost.

The conventional thing would have been to kick the field goal on 4th down. But then you're kicking off to Manning who gets the ball at least at his own 20-yard line and a few time-outs, and the opportunity to build up a huge lead going into halftime. Plus he gets the ball to start the second half, just in time to hammer the final nail in the coffin.

The Colts offense was rolling, and while the Saints offense was picking up steam, it still hadn't scored a single TD and had to settle for FGs. Payton altered the state of the game with his decisions, and whether they worked or not, it was the right choice because it changed the status quo, and the status quo would have meant a Colts victory.

Considering the Saints defense held the Colts at the end of the game I don't think you can say with any certainty that they wouldn't have been able to hold them after the opening kickoff in the second half.

 

[PatsFanStnfrd]

Sean Payton is a genius today -- much lauded. Rightly so. But nothing illustrates the thin line between genius and lunacy as Payton's onside kickoff call: you are a genius if your gamble succeeds and a lunatic if it fails. All or nothing.

After Belichick's decision to go for it in Indianapolis, we saw statisticians come up with the odds of success (over 60 %, if IRC). Today, I see no one post the odds for an onside kick recovery. I believe it may well be 50 % or less. The reason you don't see it debate is it worked. Bravo to the Saints.

 

[patriots pam]

The arrogance! The hubris! The UN. MI. TI. GAT. ED. GALL! :snob:

Oh, wait, twasn't BB that called it, so it's...Brave! Gutsy! Pulling no punches to Just! Win!

Seriously though, I didn't recover from the shock and disbelief of what I had just witnessed until sometime after it was ruled that the Saints recovered, so by then I thought it was just AWESOME! Of course, I had no dog in it other than just (really, really, really) wanting the Colts to lose. I might not have looked so kindly on the move if it had been the Pats taking that chance. Once I regained consciousness, that is.

But hey...BRAVO! It worked, changed the momentum of the game and now today is the best - Pats SB wins excluded - post SB day...EVAH! :singing:

 

[Nestapats]

Sean Payton should've been the super bowl MVP, that was one of the best coached games ive ever seen.

 

[Leave No Doubt]

I apologize for being so rancorous.

I've been chafing and bristling as this season has wound down at all this pure unadulterated Manning crotch hugging going on ad nauseum.

Don't apologize! It was the Post Of The Day IMHO :singing:

 

[HarkDawg]

OT- but....



I cannot wait for FITZY'S COLTS BLEW Super Bowl 44 video. :rocker:

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Considering the Saints defense held the Colts at the end of the game I don't think you can say with any certainty that they wouldn't have been able to hold them after the opening kickoff in the second half.

You're right, we can't predict anything with any certainty. And the Saints might have stopped the Colts to start the half. But the Colts were in a good position to win that game. The stats favour the team that scores first (65%), the team leading after the first quarter (69%), and the team leading at halftime (80%).

I think Payton needed to do something to help his team win the game, and he did just that. A lot of people focus on the outcome of the decision, and had it failed, people would have called him a moron. But I still would have understood the decision because I understood the logic behind it and agreed with it. There are no guarantees in anything we do, let alone football. All we can ask for is that the guy making the decision has put the right thought into it, and I feel he did.

 

[HarkDawg]

Ehhhh, here we go. I, for one, thought that the onside kick on the kickoff was not a good call. If the Saints had lost that kickoff (which they damn near did), they pretty much put Manning in striking range, that game shifts to the Colts, and they probably win it. Was it ballsy? Sure. However, it is only considered "ballsy" because it worked. If it didn't work, it would have been stupid. I, for one, am glad that it worked. However, it's not necessarily a call that I agree with.

disagree Kon. Who would suspect an onside kick to begin the half??? Great call...

Oh and what COLT blew it?? I did even look to see.

It hit his hands and did not real it in

 

[bigfandan]

"The call reeked of hubris. It was something straight out of Bill Belichick's playbook. It's the Super Bowl. You're playing Peyton Manning. Take the points, go to the locker room with a small deficit and come out ready to play in the second half."

Reeked of hubris? Isn't that Peter King's line? Who uses this kind of language any way. Reek and Hubris, wow, two big words, amazing!

 

[emoney_33]

The Saints captains took center field, they called heads, the coin was flipped, heads it was... I hit the first silly item on my card and naturally they were to defer.

What? receive? Sean, are you there? Hello!?

3 & out... damnit you see what I mean, what a ruined choice!!

The Who... the what? the when?? halftime over yet?

:sigh: give it to the big foreheaded clown... oh what, wait what just.. uhh did he just, did they... yes! WOW!! I can't believe it.

This was planned and practiced, and why they chose to receive to start the game. This was not some spur of the moment decision. The chances of them recovering that onside kick were much higher than a normal, we know it's coming, not heavily practiced onside kick. This... this was pure genius. This was planned. This was practiced. This was the way it would be. I am so glad the saints won, Payton and Brees are my 2nd favorite coach and QB.

And to the OP, Payton has brass balls of his own, he isn't borrowing anyone elses.

 

[Amnorix]

Sean Payton should've been the super bowl MVP, that was one of the best coached games ive ever seen.

Would you have said that if the Colts had gotten the first down that they missed by about a yard at the end of hte first half after Payton went for it on 4th and goal from the 2?

Would you have said that if the Saints hadn't recovered the onside kick that bounced off a Colt player's chest, more or less?

 

[Amnorix]

I hope this thread makes those who screamed about how stupid 4th and 2 was revisit their thoughts. The decision to onside kick was MORE risky...

 

[emoney_33]

I hope this thread makes those who screamed about how stupid 4th and 2 was revisit their thoughts. The decision to onside kick was MORE risky...

That's debatable, the risk with regards to yards is about the same ~30-40 yards. In the Saints game there was still the entire 2nd half. If all the other factors were ignored in our game, then I'd say the risk of the 4th & 2 was greater, but the reward was even more so.

I also don't doubt for one second that the Saints practiced this onside kick and that situation and knew before the game that if they received first (won the coin toss or Colts deferred) and the game was close they'd be going for that onside kick.

 

[convertedpatsfan]

Would you have said that if the Colts had gotten the first down that they missed by about a yard at the end of hte first half after Payton went for it on 4th and goal from the 2?

Would you have said that if the Saints hadn't recovered the onside kick that bounced off a Colt player's chest, more or less?

I don't think anyone would say he should have been MVP since his team probably would have lost if those decisions didn't work out. But as I said before, I feel that good decisions are the best thing coaches can do. Sometimes you do the right thing and it doesn't work. Does that make you stupid? Sometimes you screw up but it works somehow. Does that make you brilliant?

I know we focus on outcome as the most important thing, but it's hard to ignore good decision-making, even if the results don't come out the way we had hoped.

I hope this thread makes those who screamed about how stupid 4th and 2 was revisit their thoughts. The decision to onside kick was MORE risky...

I think it depends on how you define risk. Unexpected onside kicks have a significantly higher chance of working.

Ultimately, nothing in life is guaranteed. You can play it safe and still fumble the ball or hit the wide open receiver only to watch it bounce off his hands and high up in the air for a defender to pick off.

These were not random, spur of the moment decisions. Payton thought about them well in advance and had the team practice the onside kick. At the end of the day, you have to assess the risk and decide if it's worth it, and he did. So whether they recovered or not, I would have understood the decision.

 

[PatsFanSince74]

Ehhhh, here we go. I, for one, thought that the onside kick on the kickoff was not a good call. If the Saints had lost that kickoff (which they damn near did), they pretty much put Manning in striking range, that game shifts to the Colts, and they probably win it. Was it ballsy? Sure. However, it is only considered "ballsy" because it worked. If it didn't work, it would have been stupid. I, for one, am glad that it worked. However, it's not necessarily a call that I agree with.

Probably why he has a Lombardi trophy and you don't...

(intended as friendly not snarky...)

 

[MoLewisrocks]

Would you have said that if the Colts had gotten the first down that they missed by about a yard at the end of hte first half after Payton went for it on 4th and goal from the 2?

Would you have said that if the Saints hadn't recovered the onside kick that bounced off a Colt player's chest, more or less?

Of course not, then folks would have said he's an egomaniacal whack job who distrusts his defense and probably doesn't have enough push back on his coaching staff to rein him in...