Schilling could be lost for season

[LoganMankinsPancakeBlocks]

I think he's got excellent movement on his pitches, but that his fastball is average at best.

Since when is sitting 91-94 and topping out at 95-96 an "average at best" fastball? That's just as hard as Hughes was throwing last year, even a MPH or two fastball and I'd guess you wouldn't classify Hughes' fastball as average at best.

He doesn't throw at hard as Beckett and it's obvious the 96 is what he tops out at instead of sits at like reported, but his fastball is well above average...especially when you consider his fastball command is quite good. What he really needs to work on is his control of his off-speed/breaking stuff, which he couldn't control at all for much of last year.

A 60+ IP jump is huge for a young pitcher as well. Most believe you shouldn't have them throw much more than 30-35 IP more than you have before, 60 is just begging for arm trouble.

 

[Real World]

Since when is sitting 91-94 and topping out at 95-96 an "average at best" fastball? That's just as hard as Hughes was throwing last year, even a MPH or two fastball and I'd guess you wouldn't classify Hughes' fastball as average at best.

He doesn't throw at hard as Beckett and it's obvious the 96 is what he tops out at instead of sits at like reported, but his fastball is well above average...especially when you consider his fastball command is quite good. What he really needs to work on is his control of his off-speed/breaking stuff, which he couldn't control at all for much of last year.

A 60+ IP jump is huge for a young pitcher as well. Most believe you shouldn't have them throw much more than 30-35 IP more than you have before, 60 is just begging for arm trouble.

It's simply a matter of opinion. When Shipley was reporting about Dice K all they talked about was how he was always throwing 96 mph, and even in the 7th & 8th innings. He's not that pitcher, or at least he hasn't been in his one season. Also, I disagree and don't think he locates his fastball very well. He's up in the zone alot. A big thing about a fastball is command. Beckett was throwing sheer gas 2 years ago, but couldn't command it. Last year he took a couple mph off, and he put it where he wanted too, and the results speak for themselves. Hughes will be 93-95 mostly. He'll put it exactly where he wants to though. Last year the hamstring cost him a couple mph. At any rate, Dice K, who's stuff I like mind you, seems to have an average fastball, or certainly not as good a fastball as was advertised. That doesn't mean he won't be a terrific pitcher.

It's the 30 inning rule. The thing to consider with Hughes is that he threw 146 innings in 2006. So will they jump 30 from last season when he was hurt, or will they look to jump from last year. I think they'll decide as the season rolls along. It'll be interesting to see how they handle him, and how the Yankees and Sox handle all their young arms.

 

[TomBrady'sGoat]

Maybe I read different reports, but everything I heard about Daisuke said he had an average fastball but a slew of great breaking and offspeed pitches which made his fastball more effective. His fastball last year was pretty much as-advertised: low-90s, straight, and he left it up in the zone too often. The problem was that he couldn't throw strikes often enough with his breaking pitches and was throwing fastballs in obvious fastball counts.

So I disagree that it was reported as above average, and will disagree with the perception that it is above-average. It is pretty average.

 

[Foley]

I will disagree though regarding the relevency of splits when discussing season long numbers & production. In the end everyone plays 162 games. If Wang is lights out at home, and awful on the road, but consistently a 19 game, 220 IP, 3.6 ERA pitcher when the 162nd game is over, then that's what matters.

If its all the same to you and thats all that matters then fine, but I for one would be very frustrated if the ace of my team was a good bet to be well below average in half his starts. He averages about an inning less per start on the road, while every other peripheral stats are much higher. The fact he is so mediocre on the road is lessened by the fact that he still has a great road record, but thats more to do with the offense behind him than his pitching.

It's just hard for me to take those individual projections seriously when they have the Yanks winning 100+ games and no pitcher winning more than 12. Whatever their system might be, I can't take their individual projections at face value when that happens.

But they (PECOTA) don't project them to win 100+ games. Whoever did that blog projects them to win 100+ games. They took individual projections, added a bunch of them together using some lineup analysis web page, and then found the Pythagorean expectation of the result. It was some bastardized PECOTA/Baseball Musings/Bill James hybrid that says they'll win 100+ games, not a PECOTA projection.

PECOTA doesn't factor in offense, hence no one winning more than 12 games. The hybrid projection does factor in offense, hence 100+ wins.

 

[Real World]

If its all the same to you and thats all that matters then fine, but I for one would be very frustrated if the ace of my team was a good bet to be well below average in half his starts. He averages about an inning less per start on the road, while every other peripheral stats are much higher. The fact he is so mediocre on the road is lessened by the fact that he still has a great road record, but thats more to do with the offense behind him than his pitching.But they (PECOTA) don't project them to win 100+ games. Whoever did that blog projects them to win 100+ games. They took individual projections, added a bunch of them together using some lineup analysis web page, and then found the Pythagorean expectation of the result. It was some bastardized PECOTA/Baseball Musings/Bill James hybrid that says they'll win 100+ games, not a PECOTA projection.

PECOTA doesn't factor in offense, hence no one winning more than 12 games. The hybrid projection does factor in offense, hence 100+ wins.

It doesn't matter with respect to a seasons production. Obviously it matters when you further disect the individual player, talk playoffs, etc. How he gets to 19-7, 3.65, 220 IP, frustrating or not, is irrelevent when talking a general 162 games. That doesn't mean I don't see & understand what his splits are.

 

[Mitch OCastic]

I think Mussina is a little worse off than Wakefield is at the time.

schilling needs to step up

 

[cupofjoe1962]

The doctor who examined Schillings shoulder for the Sox should be fired.

 

[IcyPatriot]

Schilling should be sued ... how can such a smart guy (so he says) be so clueless ... I don't buy it and I'd like him gone.