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Sanchez, 3rd Down and The Pats

Discussion in 'PatsFans.com - Patriots Fan Forum' started by robertweathers, Jan 9, 2011.

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  1. robertweathers

    robertweathers Rookie

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    The key to being competitive w/ NE is converting a bunch of 3rd downs. Extending drives. Getting 1st downs. Getting touchdowns. Thats pretty obvious. No revelations there.

    In Week 2, Jets were 6/13 on 3rd down and 1/1 on 4th down. They scored 28 points. They won.

    In Week 9, CLE converted 7/13 on 3rd down and 1/1 on 4th down. They scored 34 points.

    Arguably, the Pat's offense and defense seemed to turn the corner after the CLE game. Since then, lets look at the other games since then from a 3rd down standpoint. For arguement's sake, lets throw out the season and just look at all games after CLE.

    Pitt- 5/12
    Indy- 11/14
    DET- 7/14
    NYJ- 3/12
    CHI- 3/8
    GB- 11/19
    BUF-3/10
    MIA- 4/13

    In the Indy game, they had 28 first downs and GB had 26. Indy had 22 first-downs via passing, 5 running and GB 13 via passing & 9 running. So in total, 70% of all 1st downs were via the air. For arguments sake, for the 11 3rd down conversions, thats about 8 via the air. Incredible.

    Since CLE, Pats stop 46% of 3rd downs. Statistically, that stinks but you can argue that over that stretch they have been in zones and allowing many 3rd downs to take place.

    Another data point: Top 10 teams converting 3rd down %

    NO
    NE
    ATL
    SD
    INDY
    PITT
    TB
    GB
    HOU
    DAL

    The NYJ were 3rd in the NFL in # of 3rd downs per game at about 14 and converted a little less than 6 per game. Thats pretty decent and put them at 40% conversion- middle of the pack. On the whole, they had 306 1st downs a game that averaged 19.2 first downs a game which is low. Of their 6 3rd down conversions a game, 1.8 came in the air and 4 came on the ground. In addition, the NYJ have 306 completions on the year which rank them 31st in the NFL. Thats 19 a game.

    Over the year, the Jets throw on 3d down 68% of the time.

    How Sanchez Can Win The Game.

    Sanchez is 74/160 46% comp % on 3rd down (Brady completes 61% on 3rd down. Brees is 65%) and attempts 4.6 throws per game on 3rd down. You guys can look up the yardage breakout but he is good on 3rd/8-10 yrds but brutal on anything 3-10 yds As a whole, 32.6% of it's passes are for 1st downs. Thats 21st in the NFL next to OAK and TN. However, all those teams above have QBs who complete more than 61% of their passes. Sanchez is 30th in comp % at 54.8% a game and of course worse on 3rd down. We know hes not a very accurate QB. He can make plays here and there but his numbers he is not consistent on 3rd down at all. The NYJ running game averages 9 first downs a game. NE defense averages about 6 rushing 1st downs a game and 14 receiving.

    Mark Sanchez 2010 Situational Stats, Jets, NFL

    So if you look at the Indy and GB games as templates needing on average 25 first downs, 18 passing first downs and 11 3rd down conversions to stay competitive with the Pats, Sanchez needs to....

    -Double his number of passing 1st downs
    -Increase his average number of converted 3rd downs passing per game by 610%

    Seeing that the above numbers would require Sanchez to morph into Peyton Manning, for the Jets to win the Jets win, they will need to do a complete 180 on when they do on 3rd down to beat NE IE- run it as opposed to throw it.
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2011
  2. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    In other words, we need to put them in 3rd and passing distance not 3rd and running distance.
  3. robertweathers

    robertweathers Rookie

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    Yep. Tried to make it too complicated to say that :p

    But unless there is a BAL 2009 redux, Sanchez needs to have the game of his life to keep the Jets competitive.
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2011
  4. patsox23

    patsox23 Rookie

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    Top-notch stat breakdown, very insightful. Thanks for the good work.
  5. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    I kind of look at it like this:
    We will do an OK job running the ball vs them. They will do an OK job running the ball vs us.
    Neither team has been a real good pass D, particularly against decent or better QB.
    So it comes down to them stopping Brady or us stopping Sanchez, or at least which happens more frequently.
    Nothing could make me more confident about a game than that.
  6. robertweathers

    robertweathers Rookie

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    Yep. Agree 100%, Andy. Thats kinda what I was thinking. Pats have averaged over 26 ppg vs top 10 defenses. Brady may not put up monster numbers, but he'll still be efficient. They'll score their points no matter what.

    Sanchez is capable of efficiency in bursts, but not on scale- like Brady, Brees, Rodgers, etc.

    Plus, the Jets are 30th in red zone efficiency. That is another metric that tells us that they just aren't an efficient offense than can't scale.
  7. BlueThunder

    BlueThunder PatsFans.com Supporter PatsFans.com Supporter

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    #24 Jersey

    BB will stack the box and stop the run.....Sanchez has to beat Pats with his arm...


    Ain't gonna happen if Pats players Do their Job......
  8. andrewgarrr

    andrewgarrr Banned

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    Guyton vs Keller = important
  9. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Don't be so sure.
    This is IMO, a part of BBs philosophy that is misunderstood.

    If you stack the box, you make it easier for the poor QB to play well.
    If you play honest pass D and dont sacrifice it to stop the run, you force Sanchez to have to make plays without a schematic advantage.
    They will not beat us just by running the ball. No matter what the run game does, Sanchez must have success to beat us. Why would you oversell the run, and give Sanchez a fighting chance to do well against a depleted pass D?
  10. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Guyton in man coverage on Kellar may happen twice all game.
    Disguising coverage and making Sanchez think Kellar has different coverage than he actually gets on 3rd down = important.
  11. glm

    glm Rookie

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    Just like to point out that over the past six games the Pats Defensive Passer Rating has been an incredible 56.2.
  12. AndyJohnson

    AndyJohnson PatsFans.com Veteran PatsFans.com Supporter

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    Nice stat, which corresponds well to being the #1 points allowed D the last 5 weeks.
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