Salisbury Just Made A Great Point

[Patriotic Fervor]

god, help me......

It's too late for you, man! You tangle with this guy, he'll eat you alive! (Indeed, that's what he's doing now!)

Insurance companies being what they are (actuaries who love to make money hand over fist), they are expert at putting their money where their collective mouths are. They overlook nothing. Everything is studied, assigned a risk value, and studied some more. It never ends.

Make no mistake - these guys know exactly what they're doing.

They make the studies mentioned because they want to put a probability on future events if they are going to insure them. They are risking their money, and risk management is what they live for.

They want to know what the chances are of a red car being involved in a crash, or it's driver being ticketed, so they can set rates that will insure they make a profit (oh, it's always a nice one!) on the transaction.

While statisticians doubtless drool over information like this, it's not a stretch to say that given red cars have a shown propensity for being involved in costly adventures, shall we say, that they will in the future be more likely to be be found to have continued said propensity.

That insight doesn't require a Ph.D. in statistical analysis.

Actually, the only one here who seems to be having difficulty interpreting the data is you.

 

[eom]

I think this is where the 'a little knowledge is a dangerous thing' saying must come from.

 

[SammyBlueCat]

Back to Salisbury for a minute. Someone tried to put him down because he was a back-up quarterback and had a short career. I believe his comeback was "yeah and you were there holding the towels".

Anyways he seems like an honest commentator.

Specter on the other hand...

 

[eom]

Back to Salisbury for a minute. Someone tried to put him down because he was a back-up quarterback and had a short career. I believe his comeback was "yeah and you were there holding the towels".

Anyways he seems like an honest commentator.

Specter on the other hand...

wasn't specter the one who gave frank perdue a pass on manslaughter?
now he's a comcast lackey.

 

[PatsFanInVa]

Analogize in haste, repent at leisure.

Forget the red sportscar.

Regardless of the propensity of authorities to believe the red sportscar is speeding while the VW bug is not -- even if we had one make of car in only 1 color -- if you are the one guy driving 65 who gets pulled over, you still have to pay the ticket.

And as the other guys whizz by, they're just as likely to think "serves you right," as they are to think "aww poor guy got pulled over." More likely, for that matter.

Crap I just made another analogy.

All I'm saying is, get used to it. Regardless of what facts are aired, there will be a great number of people who think, and I use the term loosely, that we're "dirtier" than other NFL teams.

So just learn to not give a crap, in terms of other fans. It's just that simple.

That's not to say we can't say "YEAH, Go Salisbury!" if he makes a pro-Pats or pro-objectivity point. Just saying, all you guys saying "this whole season was ruined by..."

Well, it's kind of true, but we don't get normal seasons anymore, not for a while, that's my take. There will always be a jackass discrediting whatever we achieve. That's just the way it is.

So I'm just advocating being ready for it, getting past the point where others' opinions can affect us. It seems sort of masochistic.

PFnV

 

[PatriotsReign]

The Problem is that by the time that happened all the evidence would be gone (I'm guessing when New England got nabbed everyone did quite a bit of erasing and destroying video). So the likelihood of finding evidence is pretty slim, unless someone came forward and admitted to doing so, which again, isn't likely - Ian

If you think about the baseball/steriod investigations, it's all based upon what people have said, not evidence. I'm sure there are many, many current & former NFL people who would testify that video taping and signal stealing has been going on forever in the NFL. That would make a mockery of any investigation.

Espionage in the NFL is part of the great, great stories former players & coaches love to talk about. Hell, I've heard stories on NFL films about players stealing playbooks, ect.

So if there was a league-wide investigation, there would be plenty of witnesses. Especially considering none of this stuff is illegal like steroids.

 

[glutton79]

okay, regarding the red sports car analogy- some of you may understand statistics, but you apparently don't understand the difference between correlation and causation.

red cars are more likely to be ticketed and involved in accidents, yes. now, is that because the red color of the car actually causes accidents, or because people who drive faster and more aggressively are more likely to purchase a red car to begin with? frankly, it's difficult to prove either way, but the latter seems far more plausible. thus, if you're not a particularly fast or aggressive driver, purchasing a red car probably won't *cause* you to have an accident.

as a comparison, it's like the often-cited statistic that people who live together before marriage are more likely to get divorced. does that mean that living together first somehow causes divorce, many years later? or does it mean that people who are willing to live together before they get married are just more open to the idea of divorce regardless?

see, statistics are more helpful when you combine them with a little logic.

 

[glutton79]

more on topic, I've always liked sean salisbury. and in this case, I hope the other media idiots can stop running their mouths long enough to actually listen to him, because he has a very valid point here.

 

[Bertil]

The first time the Rams made it INTO the Red Zone was in the 4th Quarter. Thoes whiners deserved to lose. They thought it was their right to just walk over the Pats. Their stupid Coach never even went to the hurry up until it was too late and that is what cost them the game. Just writing this I'm having Deja Vu all over again...

 

[Keegs]

What is asinine is someone like yourself not providing anything other than your unfounded opinion to prove someone else wrong.

USAA, one of the best insurance carriers in the US, published every year the number of cars that are in accidents, their colors, the make, and the model. They also talk about the number of speeding tickets written.

Guess what. Red and Black cars tend to be in MORE accidents and the drivers tend to have more tickets on average. Across the United States.

Insurance companies have had independent studies done to prove this.

Its not hard to understand why BLACK cars are in more accidents. Its because they are harder to see, particularly at night. And red cars because they blend in extremely well with the rising and setting sun.

But, hey, believe whatever you want. Its just more proof that there will always be people in the world who insist on being ignorant.

the sun isn't red.

 

[ctpatsfan77]

the sun isn't red.

Umm . . . again, he's talking abount sunrise/sunset.

In any case, though, my guess is that the increase in accidents involving red cars is, for lack of a better terms, a correlative issue rather than a causative one: I wouldn't be surprised to see that--nowadays, at least--people who tend to buy red cars tend to be more aggressive drivers who get into more accidents. [Please note I am not saying this is true, merely that I wouldn't be surprised if it were.]

 

[Watson's IQ]

If you think about the baseball/steriod investigations, it's all based upon what people have said, not evidence. I'm sure there are many, many current & former NFL people who would testify that video taping and signal stealing has been going on forever in the NFL. That would make a mockery of any investigation.

Espionage in the NFL is part of the great, great stories former players & coaches love to talk about. Hell, I've heard stories on NFL films about players stealing playbooks, ect.

So if there was a league-wide investigation, there would be plenty of witnesses. Especially considering none of this stuff is illegal like steroids.

You're somewhat right, but if you read the Mitchell Report there was also plenty of actual evidence (mostly in the form of checks and shipping envelopes to/from Kurt Radomski).

I think Ian made a good point, no team is going to have evidence they did this still hanging around, so if it's to come out it's going to have to be because people around the league say it happened. The problem with that is that some of those people are already saying that, and no one seems interested in reporting it. People currently in the employ of the other 31 NFL teams have absolutely no reason to come forward and say this practice was widespread, why not just let the Patriots fall on the sword for everyone?

 

[NYCPatsFan]

... People currently in the employ of the other 31 NFL teams have absolutely no reason to come forward and say this practice was widespread, why not just let the Patriots fall on the sword for everyone?

Plus, I am sure there has been widespread destruction of all past tapes by every team once the first spygate broke out.

Irrespective of past media reports on other teams doing similar things in the past, we will unfortunately be the poster boys for this for quite some time.

And, I will not be surprised if we are potrayed by the media as the only 'rogue' team in the NFL that has been doing this. Let the games begin...

 

[Watson's IQ]

And, I will not be surprised if we are potrayed by the media as the only 'rogue' team in the NFL that has been doing this. Let the games begin...

That's pretty much already what's happened. This despite the fact that knowledgeable people around the league have conceded the practice was widespread, that has gone largely unreported. It's not a scandal if everyone was doing it. And scandal sells.

 

[stevedogc]

I agree that this is a great point by Salisbury. And unfortunatly, this is an obvious case of a government official abusing his power. Spector has an obvious agenda at hand, as was evident when he told D&C that the fact that he is an Eagles fans was the main reason that he is pursuing this issue to the extent that he is. The problem is that he is painting himself into a corner that I am sure no one in the media will bring up because it will take the emphasise of the Pats and onto the rest of teams in the NFL.

Spector originally said he wanted to know why Goddell destroyed the evidence in the spygate case and he used the anti-trust acts/laws as reason he is doing this. Despite the fact that no laws were broken, he feels he has the right to do so. However, once he brings Walsh into the conversation, and wants to know what he knows and what evidence he may has, Spector is now changing the focus from evidence destroyed from actions already admitted by the Patriots, to new evidence to new accusations that have not been proved, admitted or argued by any member of the NFL or Patriots.

So, if Spector is now trying to dig up new accusations of wrong during by the Patriots then why doesn't he do so for all teams in the NFL. Keeping in mind the there have been former and current coaches, players and commentators that have claimed that this sort of thing happens all the time, by alot of the teams in the NFL. I guess these people have less credability then an ex employee of the Pats with a possible ax to grind.

 

[pao]

Okay.

Goodell's position has always been the door is open if you have a credible allegtion. He says nobody has had one yet.

The meeting is today (Goodell/Specter), but I don't think it defuses a damn thing. Likely Specter sees it as Goodell's chance to cut a deal with his Dark Lords at Comcast, in exchange for a free pass. Goodell ain't goin for that, from all appearance. It seems, thus far, that Goodell's position is that the league has nothing to hide.

This temporarily puts him in the position of making the Pats' case vis a vis this investigation, since it is an investigation of the league, not of the Pats (in theory.)

Now a little advice - don't pay attention to any fan of any other team, and remind yourself that you are hanging on every detail, and they are seizing on every detail that makes a case against us.

We went 18-0 until this year's super bowl. I don't want to talk about "reasons" for losing. We were, by the end of the year, the second best team in the league. Realize what that means: we did that, in astounding fashion, under a microscope all season. For your own personal edification, this team gave you back what the media has tried to take away: it has proven to you, in no uncertain terms, that you were right. This was a type of gamesmanship that everybody has been doing (as the Miami and NY examples demonstrate.) It is, in fact, cheating (to me,) because it's breaking the rules. Just like it's speeding if you're doing 65 in a 55 zone, and a bad cop might pull over a snazzy sportscar that's doing it, but not a VW bug. (PS, don't get a red sports car... insurance guys can prove to you that you're more likely to get busted in one, and also more likely to wreck one.) Everybody else may also be speeding, but you still have to pay the ticket.

But you are a Pats fan, and you get it. The rest of the league's fans will never get it.

Never.

Get your head around it. Never. We are forever "tainted" in the minds of the more uninformed fanbases around the league. But talk to anybody with any sense, and they pretty much scoff.

At the pro bowl, our guys got booed. Booed, at the pro bowl. As if they were personally eating peanut butter and baby sandwiches or something. Guys who had no influence over a damn thing in the video department, mind you. Guys like Asante and Light...

Why do I mention it? Because you need to understand: We are hated, and it is possible we always will be, forever, at least until all present personnel are gone -- including Brady, Belichick, and any of your other favorites.

Get it?

So: good idea, Salisbury. Bust the whole league, hey I am all for it. While you're at it, go after the networks pointing directional mikes at Brady while sideline cams are trained on the offensive coordinator. The hypocrisy is unbelievable. I am all for exposing it.

But never, never underestimate the ability of other fans to pack like hyenas looking for scraps of a carcass.

Hell, we didn't ask for this. But it's the way it is. And I'm not sure any amount off factual information will change it.

So, if it does, fine. Cool. We can breathe easy then. But until that day, when peoples' minds change, I'll consider it to just be the expected outcome, no matter what facts are brought to bear.

Haters gonna hate dudes.

PFnV

Great post, as usual.

pao